What would you give up for Adrian Gonzalez?

by td32 on Feb 3, 2010 10:46 PM EST

Based on these quotes it appears he will be traded at some point this season:

Padres CEO Jeff Moorad stated the obvious yesterday regarding first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. Tim Sullivan of the San Diego Union-Tribune has the quote:

"While I’d be thrilled to have him part of the organization for the long term, the early signals indicate his cost will be greater than our ability to pay."

Gonzalez's agent John Boggs agreed, and explained that he expects a trade:

"The feeling we're getting is more than likely (the Padres) are going to have to trade Adrian because (they) can't afford him."

These quotes are far from groundbreaking, so consider this your official Gonzalez Trade Prediction post. Tell us the acquiring team and players given up. Keep in mind that at $10.25MM over the next two years, any team willing to surrender the right players could acquire Gonzalez. Given their first base incumbents, though, the Cardinals, Brewers, Phillies, Reds, Yankees, and Twins appear unlikely.

With the payroll dropping significantly after this season, and a hole opening up at 1st base, would you give up a Wade Davis and another top 10 prospect for Gonzo? He is inrexpensive, can play 1st great, and the Rays could move Pena to DH. I dont see this happening, but it would be frigging awesome.

This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.

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Coming up with a trade package is the easy part, keeping Gonzalez long term is much harder

Before i even discuss players, i make sure we can extend him

by sternfan1 on Feb 4, 2010 7:28 AM EST reply actions

We would have him for 2 seasons....

Adding a guy that would be a 4-6 WAR player would immensely help the Rays odds of making the playoffs the next 2 seasons. The Rays have a stockpile of pitching prospects, and Gonzo is the kind of guy you flip a couple for.

by td32 on Feb 4, 2010 8:07 AM EST up reply actions

I think Helliot would look good in those camo uniforms they rock from time to time.

It would take a Hellickson/McGee/1 real/1 marginal prospect. I’m not sure if I could do that, though Gonzo would be one of the few that I would have to think about it.

Be peaceful, be courteous, obey the law, respect everyone; but if someone puts his hand on you, send him to the cemetery.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 4, 2010 7:37 AM EST reply actions

I'm with you...

It’s really tough giving up prospects, especially for a fiscally challenged club like the Rays. But getting Gonzo for 2 seasons would be sick.

by td32 on Feb 4, 2010 8:11 AM EST up reply actions

Especially if it put us in the running to have him for 7.

Be peaceful, be courteous, obey the law, respect everyone; but if someone puts his hand on you, send him to the cemetery.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 4, 2010 8:14 AM EST up reply actions

Looking at his number, I wonder how much of his increase in BB% is tied to being part of an abysmal lineup?

For all those that look at high double rates from prospects as a sign of future power, how about this:

Year/2B/HR
2007/46/30
2008/32/36
2009/27/40

Seems to jive with that. Here’s his MLE based on a 5/4/3 weighted average of his last 3 years:
Actual: .279/.377/.525/.902, 71 XBH, 106 RBI, 91/128 BB:K, wOBA= .369
MLE in Tampa Bay: .292/.390/.545, 74 XBH, 110 RBI, 91/128 BB:K, wOBA= .377

Actual wRAA = 27.9
TB wRAA = 32.7

That’s about half a win and factors in the prior two years in which he wasn’t as good as last year, but could be seen as a floor (barring injury, duh). I’d hate to do it, but I’d pack Hellickson’s bags for him if he could headline a package to get Gonzo. Throw in McGee and Lobstein and a guy like Ruggiano that could be better than replacement for them as soon as next week and lets make this happen. DH’ing Pena is an option, but what about spinning him off to Seattle for Saunders and an arm? Am I crazy from all this rosterbating or am I close, please let me know crowd.

Be peaceful, be courteous, obey the law, respect everyone; but if someone puts his hand on you, send him to the cemetery.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 4, 2010 8:37 AM EST up reply actions