Why the Rays Underperformed Their WAR numbers (Batting Edition) II

by FreeZorilla on Feb 4, 2010 6:15 AM EST

The Rays accounted for 84.9 Park-Adjusted Runs Above Average at the plate in 2009 according to Fangraphs WAR. That is to say, they accounted for about 8.5 Wins Above Replacement Level at the plate alone, without accounting for Defense (6.95 wins), Pitching (16.9 wins), Replacement (20.7 Wins), and Positional (-2.1). For now let's concern ourselves with the batting number, of 84.9 park-adjusted wRAA. Remember this is based off wOBA (linear weights). This does not account for base/out states or leverage. This solely factor the result of batter vs. pitcher in a vacuum.

Instead of using wOBA linear weights, let's consider the team's net change in run expectancies using base/out states (RE24). As a team, the Rays posted a RE24 of 36.29. How does the Rays' wRAA/RE24 relationship stack up when to the rest of the AL with above-average offenses?

Team	PAwRAA	RE24	RAA/RE24
Rangers	1.8	10.02	0.18
Angels	91.7	92.77	0.99
Red Sox	98.8	67.67	1.46
Yankees	205.9	130.67	1.58
Blue Jays	48.8	22.24	2.19
Twins	59.9	25.6	2.34
Rays	84.9	31.21	2.72
Indians	38.2	11.21	3.41

The 4th column gives an idea of a team's efficiency at stringing together hits or rallies. The Rays were second from the bottom well behind their ALE brothers. Its interesting to note the Rays have hired their new hitting coach, Derek Stanley, from the only team to struggle worse than them at translating their wOBA talent into real runs.

If we factor in leverage, WPA gives the following:

Team	WPA	wRAA	wRAA/WPA
Rangers	0.61	1.8	2.95
Angels	9.46	91.7	9.69
Yankees	12.82	130.67	10.19
Red Sox	4.01	98.8	24.64
Rays	1.38	84.9	61.52
Twins	0.78	59.9	76.79
Blue Jays	-3.08	48.8	-15.84
Indians	-4.64	38.2	-8.23

Again, the Rays underperformed their ability in higher leverage situations relative to their ALE brethren. The Rays struggles with run distribution over the season were much discussed in 2009. This further validates that notion. RE24 highlights the struggle to string together rallies, while WPA adds the element of leverage to the discussion. Hopefully, in 2010, the gods of random noise can shine brightly upon the Rays.

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Comments

How should we read these charts?

The Rangers are at the top of both, does that make them the best offense, or the best at putting hits together?

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by Buc Wild on Feb 4, 2010 8:26 AM EST reply actions

The Rangers have such a small wRAA that they should porbably have been omitted from the list

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by FreeZorilla on Feb 4, 2010 9:12 AM EST up reply actions

but to answer, it shows that they better capitalized on base/out states relative to their offensive talent

Tom Tango on what WPA tell us Tango states its largely distribution luck.

Tango on clutchness:

To conclude: yes, clutch skill exists. No, it’s not that big a deal (at best, half as wide as than the platoon advantage). Correct, teams should not rely on clutch skill in their decision-making process, other than as a tie-breaker.

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by FreeZorilla on Feb 4, 2010 9:28 AM EST up reply actions

How much of this is skill?

Is this a skill the Rays don’t have or just bad luck on how our hits were distributed?

by ReyL on Feb 4, 2010 8:37 AM EST reply actions

by it's definition

luck is not controllable, unless you’re the wife of an Asian dude named Mai Luck.

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by PlayOnWords on Feb 4, 2010 9:25 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

that's interesting.

Could this just be the result of 1 or 2 guys who were consistent rally killers – but were left in time and time again. Watching the games I felt that if Navi or PtB came up with two outs it was almost guaranteed to be inning over. I don’t think the Yankees and Red Sox had such persistent deadbeats. Maybe Varitek for a little while was like that.

by pcbredemeier on Feb 4, 2010 8:50 AM EST reply actions

RE24-wRAA

A positive # indicates the player outperformed in critical base/out states from their wOBA

Top 3
BJ Upton 3.17
Zo 2.06
Barty .005

Bottom 5
Navi -15.05
PTB -11.49
CC -8.6
Longo -4.52
Aybar -4.27

*Remember this is not to say Upton excelled with critical base/out states, so much as that he outperformed his wOBA.

*Navi was at -23.4 wRAA and -38.45 RE24. Gotta love those double plays.

*CC’s inclusion at the bottom was surprising.

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by FreeZorilla on Feb 4, 2010 9:49 AM EST reply actions

I'm assuming, maybe with the exception of Navi,

that these numbers aren’t predictive, right?

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by BWoodrum on Feb 4, 2010 10:01 AM EST up reply actions

Double plays will punish your RE24 far worse than wOBA where its just a failed PA

But largely, I would not think so. Just trying to shed some light onthe sotry of 2009’s failures.
Stolen base attempts impact RE24, not sure if Fangraphs incorporates them into thieir wOBA.

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by FreeZorilla on Feb 4, 2010 10:05 AM EST up reply actions

wRAA is runs and WPA is wins

Although you would get the same numbers anyway(different decimal place) I find it easier if you convert wRAA into wins or wWAA. The simple way is to just divide wRAA by 10.

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by RZ on Feb 4, 2010 10:39 AM EST up reply actions