The Hype (or lack their of) for Sean Rodriguez
by Tommy Rancel on Feb 5, 2010 6:00 AM EST
88 comments
It's amazing how perception can pump up or diminish a player's perceived value. If enough people board the hype train, a player's status in the eyes of the casual observer can greatly be enhanced. If a player's hype is mere whispers from an online community, then regardless of what stats or scouts say, that player is likely to be under-appreciated.
With that said, let's look at two minor league teammates from the 2009 season. Besides being teammates, these players will both be newly 25 years-old to begin the 2010 season. Both have the ability to play the 2B/SS/3B portion of the infield. They also have similar major league experience which is ~225 plate appearance with neither setting the world on fire.
In 2009, they both racked up over 425 plate appearances in the Pacific Coast League. Their results at the plate placed them among the league's best hitters. One of them is penciled in as an opening day starter with his major league team while the other is in a battle for a roster spot; a back up roster spot.
Player A hit .293/.353/.557 last season which earned him a .387 wOBA and an ISO of .264. He played mostly short stop and was ranked -6 runs below average by total zone. Player B on the other hand hit, .299/.400/.616 with an ISO of .318 and a Barry Bonds-ian .437 wOBA. He played mostly average second base, but can fill in at short stop as well as the outfield.
Brandon Wood, Player A, will be (barring injury or transaction) the Angels opening day third basemen. Player B, Sean Rodriguez, might not be on the Rays opening day roster at all. Of course, this is more of a testament to organizational depth, but we barely hear a peep about Rodriguez around these parts.
Sure, in our own little community Rodriguez already has more nicknames than plate appearances as a Rays' player, but to the casual fan Sean John The Baptist is one of those guys we got in that salary dump for Scott Kazmir. For those keeping score, in addition to Rodriguez the Rays also acquired Matt Sweeney and Alex Torres in that trade; both ranked in Keith Law's top 10 organization prospects.
I'm not sure what they are saying in Los Angeles about Wood, but he's been talked about for a while now. I'm sure the fans are excited to see what he can do with his first real chance to prove himself at the next level. Meanwhile, in Tampa Bay, those aware that he exists are hoping Rodriguez can win a utility role.
In Rodriguez, some see the potential for a super utility player with power. Personally, I see a starting infielder with at least average defense who can also mashed the cover off the ball. Stuck in a system where he is forced to moonlight as a bench player, this no doubt sucks for Rodriguez. Odds are if he was still with the Angels he would likely be competing with Wood for that starting role. If things go as planned (or at least my plans), Rodriguez's play will make his name for him. As for now, it's a wonderful little secret to have.
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Just a wild thought here, w/o adjusting for defense
Can you imagine a keystone of Zo and S-Rod as our middle INF?
Forty to fifty HR/yr would be a real possibility
The Baptist and The Christian bash bros
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by Tommy Rancel on Feb 5, 2010 7:49 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Actually, I'm pretty sure Ben went to a baptist college so
The Baptist Brothers will do just fine.
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by Tommy Rancel on Feb 5, 2010 7:54 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I hear ya
Rodriguez posted back to back wOBAs of .438 and .437 in AAA. K% did jump from 18 to 32% last season at the same level, but historically he’s been in the hi 20’s. Part of me is very excited for 2011’s Durham Invasion.
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Just don't forget what the stats of these guys looked like in SLC:
Dallas McPherson
Brandon Wood
Jeff Mathis
Howie Kendrick
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Sure
I was specifically referring to the hype disparity between Wood and S-Rod.
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I suspect part of the reason for this disparity
Is that people have caught on just how massive the park effects are in SLC. That park has made a lot of mediocre hitters look like superstars over the past decade.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
I think you're off a bit...
Full disclosure: Angels fan here…
You are correct that the PCL is a hitters league. However, Kendrick raked in Triple A and despite a very shitty first-half of 2009, raked the rest of the year and the the rest of the time he’s spent in the bigs. Also, Mathis’ numbers are actually nothing to write home about in the PCL and thus, translated correctly in the majors (i.e. Mendoza line-walker)…
To simply write-off a players talent because they happened to put up big numbers in the PCL is a mistake. HELL, look at Kendry Morales’ numbers in the PCL and compare them to his first, full year with the Halos. His MLB stats are actually better.
Let's make it "another halo victory" for Rory...
by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Feb 7, 2010 4:47 AM EST up reply actions
Those Halo fans have been waiting to sport Wood for years.
I hope we don’t have a similar wait in front of us.
Be peaceful, be courteous, obey the law, respect everyone; but if someone puts his hand on you, send him to the cemetery.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 5, 2010 7:56 AM EST reply actions
The PCL stats are a bit troublesome
Any former PCL mashers who are doing the same in MLB?
Fielder and Carlos Quentin
but it does seem like the minority.
I haven't checked on that, but when I did a post about Rodriguez's
Major League Equivents, his average went down, but his power remained true. I’ll live with a .260 second basemen who can slug over .450 and an ISO ~.200. Of course, a better trained batters eye can help with walks and less k’s and that would only increase his production.
Along with Joyce and Davis, Rodriguez is close to joining Shields, Garza, Longo and Benzo among my personal favorite Rays on the big league team..
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by Tommy Rancel on Feb 5, 2010 8:10 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I don't think any of us have to list Mr. Smiley.
Something is wrong with whoever doesn’t like Pena.
I could basically say ~15-20 players of the projected 25 man roster are “favorites.” And I don’t dislike the remaining players, however, I don’t have any strong feeling toward them in either direction.
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by Tommy Rancel on Feb 5, 2010 8:21 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Throw Sonny and Price in there for me
I wish Gabe Gross was still here. As to the question of PCL mashers, you’re just being lazy. Yes it is offense-inflated, but a hitter is a hitter.
http://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=4&qual=y&type=1&season=2006
Jack Cust, Carlos Quentin, Shin-Soo Choo, Alberto Callapso, Adam Jones, Casey McGehee, Mike Aviles. Those are all from 2006. 2007 new names, Geovany Soto, Wladamir Balentien, Ian Stewart, Rick Ankiel. Obviously, not all of these guys are monsters, but c’est la vie for guys making the jump from AAA to MLB. Don’t believe me, check out the IL board from 2006" http://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=2&qual=y&type=1&season=2006. Kevin Witt, Josh Fields, Josh Phelps, you do have Beej and Pudroia, but there’s tons of guys in every league that mash and can’t move up.
Be peaceful, be courteous, obey the law, respect everyone; but if someone puts his hand on you, send him to the cemetery.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 5, 2010 8:27 AM EST up reply actions
Specifically
I can’t think of any recent Salt Lake City hitters who have lived up to expectations in the majors. Even those who are decent enough hitters (i.e. Kendrick, Morales) haven’t done as well as expected. Hell, Reggie Willits put up an OPS of .875 one year there. Nathan Haynes put up a 1.040 OPS there.
It’s a home park that makes a lot of so-so hitters look really good. Even PuffRod’s OPS was 200 points higher at home than on the road, in what is a hitter’s league generally.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Kendry Morales....
Let's make it "another halo victory" for Rory...
by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Feb 7, 2010 4:47 AM EST up reply actions
I'm not sure his defense is good enough to play 150 games at SS
More likely is Brignac at SS, Rodriguez at 2B and Zobrist in a corner outfield position. Hate to say it, but if Upton goes year-to-year, then he might become too pricey, but it’s too early to speculate on what would happen.
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by Tommy Rancel on Feb 5, 2010 8:57 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I wouldn't be shocked if SRod gets a good look in the OF at Durham
Its tough to move an excellent defensive 2B off the position. Most 2B translate well to the COF. In a small sample, ROdriguez has posted a UZR of -.2 at 2B in 459.2 Innings. Serviceable, but he could be a decent outfielder.
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Well, if Briggy doesn't have a breakthrough year with the bat, but his glove maintains
and Sean can play average defense (or slightly below average) with a plus bat… I mean, what’s the difference in total runs we are talking about here?
As always, a platoon could be in play
Briggy could face the righties, with SRod or Zo playing SS vs lefties.
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TotalZone
Don’t know much about the metric, but in the minors he posted 9 positive run values with 1 negative.
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Meh, the Angels had a pretty SS heavy system.
Aybar, Wood, Rodriguez. It could have easily been that he was merely the weakest among the three. That doesn’t mean he’s guaranteed to be a travesty.
Agreed.
We’ll see, but it seems very unlikely they’d move a guy who could stick at SS for a guy who a lot of people think couldn’t (Wood).
The Angels also traded us three legit prospects for a broken, expensive pitcher.
I’m willing to question their judgment.
He was only moved b/c of necessity
He entered last year primarily as a backup SS with the ability to go all utility up in this piece. His emerging bat landed him at 2B. Admittedly, he stunk in his 1000 innings in the big leagues at SS.
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Zo
The question with Zo is how over inflated was his 2B play vs how understated his SS play was according to UZR. A 2B should not be 43 runs better defensively (-12 vs 32) than he is at shortstop. Thats where his career UZR/150 has him. The truth lies in the middle, but exactly where?
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I wouldn't be shocked if Zobey was an average shortstop.
He’s a good athlete, I’m not sure why he was so terrible in the first place.
I'd bet he's probably -5 at SS and +5-10 at 2B.
He may have trouble with the throws, so it messes up his mechanics at SS.
I think it's hard to say.
The liklihood that Zobrist is better or as good as MVB at short seems unlikely to me, though.
Best 2 out of 3
Zobrist, Rodriguez, Brignac — whichever two are the best for the team (offensive contributions plus defensive contributions) ought to play.
My money is on Zobrist and Rodriguez. I continue to hope Brignac becomes what many on this board expect him to become, but I do not expect it to happen.
by Not Whole View Gang survivor on Feb 5, 2010 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
^this is intended for 2011 and beyond
Once we no longer have Bartlett, that is
by Not Whole View Gang survivor on Feb 5, 2010 11:09 AM EST up reply actions
Rather late to the discussion
but something struck me this AM in reading this string which either makes me extraordinarily slow, or inattentive.
But I’ve seen little discussion of Zobrist being the answer at 1B after Pena’s departure.
Seems if he can maintain the productivity in his bat in the area code of the last 18 months that this could be a no brainer. Certainly it could negatively impact mid-if depth in the short run, but this is not an org weakness at this point, and buying IF depth comes a lot cheaper than a starting 1B.
Zobrist is a solid defender at all positions, plenty tall enough for the spot – taller than Pena in fact – and has the bat production required at this point barring a serious regression. I’m sure this has been discussed here, but I don’t recall any in depth discussion.
Seems like a major upside opportunity for the org, that could easily be accomodated by givin him some significant reps at the spot in ST, DHing CP instead of PtB periodically, etc. Could even make moving CP more palatable should things not pan out in ’10.
Anybody can tell me why they think this is a bad idea? It would also make for more PT for either or both of S Rod or Briggy at 2B. Would perhaps hurt Aybar’s time, but is that a critical issue? Events will dictate, of course – if BenZo is required in RF that tweaks things, etc. I could imagine some suggesting there might be some defensive inefficiency in the short run – that’s a very legitimate concern in a contention position. But the longer term approach might suggest this isn’t a bad thing to test a bit.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Feb 6, 2010 5:49 PM EST up reply actions
I think we talked about Zobey as Pena's replacement last year.
It kind depends on if how his power sticks around.
I am probably the biggest Brignac advocate here, so take this w/ a grain of salt.
I assume Briggy is +5 at SS, and Puffy is -5 at SS (that’s conservative both ways I’d guess). I doubt if Peffy’s bat is a win better than Brignac’s we’d be best off starting him at SS. The only way I see that as a possibility is if Briggy is horrid at the plate. I doubt that will be the case.
OCab
-9.3/bat, -15.3/glove = .6 WAR b/c he’s a fulltime SS. All teams receive the same positional adjustments. Ultimately it comes down to players + gloves as to where to play each guy.
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But it doesn't work in a vaccuum.
If you get +5 and -5 at SS from briggy, and you get -5 and +10 from Puffy, then you need to examine where else he or Zob might be of more use. Different players aren’t robots that magically gain/lose according to the positional value. Talent evaluators need to decide where a player’s particular skillset best translates.
No, no, I completely agree
You need to anticipate how a player will fare at each possible position vs the alternatives. and take the positional combination with the highest sum of bat+gloves
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Exactly why signing O-Dog did not make sense
ODog2B/ZoRF < Zo2B/Platoon in RF
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No
He’s also only 24 next season. I don’t think an about LA bat is insane. I’d expect he’s a 3ish win player next year and 3.5 going forward.
Remember this, though?
I am probably the biggest Brignac advocate here, so take this w/ a grain of salt.
Lay off the reefer dude.
On a similar note, I’ve stocked up on necessary supplies and am expoecting record snowfalls. Do you know how excited I am for this weekend.
I do know, brah!
Why don’t you tell me about right after we hop on our Vespas and grab some Starbucks? I could totally bone a mocha frappachino right now.
/puts St Vincent on iPhone 3GS Pandora App
Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"
Bro, Marrow is a wicked sweet song!
Hold on, I gotta get my fixed-gear and throw on a flannel over my Frantics’ Boot to the Head shirt.
Everyone in my neighborhood is freaking hipsters.
I feel like I live in Williamsburg. It’s pretty tight, though, for mocking purposes.
Also... beard, random band t-shirts, owns a guitar, read transgressive fiction during teenager years...
OH FUCK, I MIGHT BE A HIPSTER.
haha loser
I’M THE YOPRO TAKING OVER YOUR COOL JOINTS! AHAHAHAHAHA! WE WILL FAZE YOU OT WITH OUR UNCOOLNESS!!!!!!
Just a douche.
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When he was revealed as the final part of the Kazmir trade
It seemed everyone was excited and said “now the trade makes great sense for the rays”. So I expected to see him on some of the prospect lists. Does he not qualify for some reason? Or is he not considered good enough for any of the lists?
He no longer qualifies because of the number of MLB at-bats he has.
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by Tommy Rancel on Feb 5, 2010 9:04 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I have always been high on StB.
Part of the reason I was down on those O-Dog rumors. In the AAA title game, he wrist poked a pitch down and away to the right center fence. It was caught, but a split hair away from a tater tot. Sick power. Very excited for him.
Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"
by PlayOnWords on Feb 5, 2010 9:02 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Never understood those either.
Between Zobrist, Rodriguez, Aybar and Brignac, along with Joyce, Kapler, Perez and Jennings in the outfield, where the hell would Hudson even go?
If you squint really hard, it almost looks like my name is Satchel Paige.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Feb 5, 2010 10:46 AM EST up reply actions
Hudson, Damon and even Park.
More than likely the “interest” was a phone call to see if the asking price was low enough that the Rays could make it work. Obviously $5 million for Hudson was out of the Rays budget and probably double what I would’ve considered acceptable for this team.
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by Tommy Rancel on Feb 5, 2010 10:54 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Park seemed a legitimate possibility
Although this might be hopeless optimism on my part
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 5, 2010 7:55 PM EST up reply actions
Angels Fan here...
S-Rod is the real deal. I watched numerous Triple A games last year when he was with the Bees. He always stood out amongst both teams as the most solid player. I can’t say we’ll regret trading him but I am almost positive he’ll be in the BIGS for awhile.
Hope he makes the 25 man for you guys…he’ll be a joy to watch, Im sure.
Let's make it "another halo victory" for Rory...
by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Feb 7, 2010 4:41 AM EST reply actions
well S-rod does sound like a Rays bat
Can mash out 20-30 + HR’s and also strikes out a 100+ times in a starting role
the question master
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