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Attendance Analysis (Pt. 5): The Power of Success

Man, I'm such a slacker.  It's been awhile since my last post on attendance (which I know you are all waiting for with baited breath), but thankfully PlayOnWords and thebaddancingraysfan have stepped up and raised some very good questions in their respective Fanposts (here and here).  How much of an impact will Obama's high speed rail have on the Rays?  How much of the Rays' attendance issues are to blame on the stadium's location and the lack of quick, accessible public transportation?  I'm not from the area and can't speak from experience, so please check out the discussions in their posts if you're interested.  In my opinion, though, I believe that the Trop's relative inaccessibility does make it tough for fans to attend weekday games and it probably limits the number of Tampa businesses that have season tickets, which the Rays seem to understand themselves already.  To what extent?  That's tough to say, but I'd argue that it's an important factor but not a crippling one.  It's not the be-all-end-all solution that people in support of a new stadium seem to be claiming, but I do think it's having an impact nonetheless and shouldn't be overlooked.  And if a new stadium doesn't seem to be in the cards anytime soon, why don't the Rays pursue improving the Tampa-St. Pete public transportation system?  That's just a discussion idea, so have at it.

Anyway, down to what I promised I'd talk about next: winning.  How much of an effect does winning have on attendance figures?  I mentioned this in an earlier post, but team attendance figures (as measured by Att+) correlate strongly with team winning percentage.  Here's the breakdown:

Win % and Att+

Year n

0.523

Year n-1

0.449

Year n-2

0.344

Year n-3

0.253

Year n-4

0.175

Year n-5

0.116

Okay, that's a bit confusing, so let me explain.

Star-divide

I've taken a league-wide sample and included every season back to 1961, trying to determine how much of an effect a team's winning percentage in past seasons can have on a team's attendance this season.  What you're seeing are the correlations between a team's winning percentage in Year n, n-1, n-2, etc. and that team's Att+ figures in Year n.  For example, say Year n is 2009.  The correlation between 2009 Att+ and 2009 winning percentage is .523 (strong), the correlation between Att+ in 2009 and winning percentages in 2008 is .449 (medium-strong), the correlation between Att+ in 2009 and winning percentages in 2007 is .344 (medium-to-weak) - and so on.  In other words, the farther back in time you go, the less and less it matters how a team has performed.  Fans do have memories, but mostly only of the past two seasons.

That seems like really good news for the Rays, right?  We've been competitive for the past two seasons, so maybe that means fans will have forgotten about the past and we'll see an even better turnout this year.  That very well might be the case; I don't really know.  The most important thing to take away from this data, though, is that the best predictor of attendance is how well the team is performing now.  I tried creating a weighted Win% average of the past couple of seasons that would correlate even stronger with a team's Att+ than their current Win%, but I couldn't do it.  Maybe I was simply screwing up (which is entirely possible), but no combination that I could come up with correlated any stronger with Att+ than this season's winning percentage.  If the Rays want to draw even more fans this upcoming season, they need to win and they need to be in the race for the playoffs.

Of course, that's common sense.  Fans support a winner!  But in this case, common sense is actually right.

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attendance at Rays games

Facts: The Rays once drew 2.5 million fans in a season (1998). And despite the economy, attendance at Rays games has risen each of the past four seasons and the 2009 attendance was 64.2% higher than the year before Stuart Sternberg and Co., took control of the team. With a good start we should see another rise this year.

by CharlieRay on Feb 6, 2010 8:05 AM EST reply actions  

I would've hoped attendence would rise

once Naimoli and that regime left. The DRays were the image of ineptitude in baseball for those 8 years. With a new start coming in the Sternberg/Friedman regime, that should’ve helped to reinvigorate the fanbase in and of itself.

by FloridaownsFSU on Feb 6, 2010 9:51 AM EST up reply actions  

I think nobody knew what to expect.

Sternberg was a business man from NY. What’s the casual fan supposed to get excited about?

Nerds like us got excited when Friedman came in, though; but normal fans didn’t know what to make of it.

on Twitter @BradleyWoodrum and @CubsStats23

by BWoodrum on Feb 6, 2010 12:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Don't expect more than a 25k average at the Trop this season even if Rays are in 1st place

I’m sure season tickets sales are flat or even dipped from the 2009 season with the economy the way it is. The walk ups, opening day, concert nights, Sunday afternoons Yankees and Red Sox dates are the only games that draw at or near capacity . It’s going to be the same story as recent years, struggle on weeknights to draw fans with good crowds for Saturday and Sunday games. Don’t beat your head against the wall with this as it is baseball life as we know it here in Tampa Bay.

I think the Rays could crack the top 20 in MLB attendance in 2010 as they came close doing that last year with a 3rd place club. Those numbers won’t please Stu much but I think it’s the best we can hope for. Folks here are having a tough time putting food on the table and keeping a roof over their heads so I think a trip across the bridge to the Trop might be down the pecking order in their priorities. I think the attendance story will be similar in many markets across the country and Toronto so don’t be surprised if the 25k number I predict doesn’t look so bad.

by rickrays on Feb 6, 2010 11:58 AM EST reply actions  

keep in mind

for under 50 bucks a family of 4 can get in the building and watch one of the best teams in baseball. if movies were the escape in the 20s, then surely a day at the trop should be no different in modern times. i mean, hell, you can’t take a family of 4 to the movies for that nowadays,let alone most other forms of entertainment.

Be peaceful, be courteous, obey the law, respect everyone; but if someone puts his hand on you, send him to the cemetery.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 6, 2010 2:03 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Probably costs almost 50 bucks to park in some places

Yankee Stadium was like 20 10yrs ago when I went.

PIZZA?!?

by Transplanted on Feb 6, 2010 2:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Not when you factor in the $15 for parking.

"I have a formula for excitability actually." - RJ Anderson

by ReasonableDoubt on Feb 6, 2010 2:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Fair play, Transplanted. Fair play.

"I have a formula for excitability actually." - RJ Anderson

by ReasonableDoubt on Feb 6, 2010 4:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Attendance is pretty cut and dry when you first sit down and analyse the Rays' attendance woes:

Either you come to the games, or you don’t.

When the Rays were in the ALCS and World Series, the economy wasn’t the best. In fact, the economy was in the middle of a downward spiral. The location was not a problem. The stadium had no real issues. Further more, Yankees and Red Sox fans have had no problems with attending the games at the Trop.

In 2002, I remember sitting at a very empty stadium looking around and counted the number of fans. I counted 321 fans in the sixth inning. The popular reason that year was that the Rays were not winning and if the Devil Rays were not winning, why would someone want to attend a game to watch a bunch of loser play baseball?

In 2006 the popular sentiment was that the Devil Rays didn’t spend the money. How may times would here some (fill in your favorite derogatory adjective here) clog up the local radio airwaves with a “I will attend the D-Rays games when the ownerships starts spending money. You can’t win unless you spend money.”

In Tampa, we have the Bucs and Lightning. Both the Bolts and Bucs didn’t perform well last year. The Bucs this year still had sell-out but there are reports that up to 20,000 tickets that are being bought up by ownership to prevent a local television black-out. Currently, the Lightning ranked 24th out of 30 teams in attendance . Now, is it the location of the St. Pete Times Forum? Is the lack of “nightlife” that surrounds Raymond James Stadium? So, is the grass truly greener in Tampa?

I truly praise current Rays ownership for not getting too frustrated. The Rays ownership have done everything right to get the product of Tampa Bay baseball out and about and the public has responded by giving a plethora of excuses. If the Rays had as many people show up as frequently as they give excuses, the Rays would sell-out every night.

The startling truth is, the Tampa Bay area is a baseball area, but not a Tampa Bay Rays baseball area… at least not yet. The attendance will increase little by little as winning becomes and more expect, no matter where the stadium is located.

Blah!

by thebaddancingraysfan on Feb 6, 2010 12:31 PM EST reply actions  

The same people that use the excuse to I’m not driving over the bridge (7 miles) drive just as far for other things such as going shopping and going to the beach etc, etc,. The economy affects everyone young and old but it’s still a $10 ticket and less than a 6 pack. If you want to go you will or will not without the BS excuses

by CharlieRay on Feb 6, 2010 1:34 PM EST reply actions  

Hopefully the attendance keeps going up

We don’t need to have it filled up all overnight, but the numbers can’t keep being propped up by 4 teams and be horrid for the other 12 otherwise 2016 is the final year in TB I figure.

The Spring Training argument needs to go away. Arizona is also a ST state, yet the D-backs draw and they were a ’98 expansion team also(granted with a better past, but still).

PIZZA?!?

by Transplanted on Feb 6, 2010 2:04 PM EST reply actions  

The biggest problem is that when Baseball starts not like the other sports in FL 1/3 of the population goes North and the rest of the retired people have already invested 50 – 60 years in on their home team and with Satellite and cable Co. having sport packages. It’s hard to convert them and some of the ones you do convert change their shirts to their old team when they visit. Now that leaves us with the young working people that are trying to support families and can’t make it to week-day games. But with that all said we should still be getting more fans to the Park. By the way we are Full season ticket holders and drive 72 miles each way to all the games and bring 6 of us so I practice what I preach and suggest we all grab a friend and bring them to the games.

by CharlieRay on Feb 6, 2010 4:04 PM EST reply actions  

I don't put that many on my car in a year.

Yay for working at home.

Be peaceful, be courteous, obey the law, respect everyone; but if someone puts his hand on you, send him to the cemetery.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 6, 2010 5:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Hell

I screwed up the math on this one.

72 * 2 (or 144) * 81 = 11,664 miles.

by FloridaownsFSU on Feb 6, 2010 6:38 PM EST up reply actions  

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