Rays Attempt To Jump Start Season With More Spring At-Bats

by Tommy Rancel on Mar 1, 2010 6:00 AM EST

The Rays have openly admitted that they must get off to a better start in 2010. Blame it on the "championship week" celebrations, the tough schedule, or the a-a-a-a-never mind, the 2009 team found themselves in an early hole and were never able to dig themselves out.

With the focus on a good start, Joe Maddon wants to give his regular players more at-bats in the spring in hopes of knocking some of that early season rust off. Plans call for everyday players to get around 60 at-bats with that number jumping to 70 or more in some cases.

During the opening month of the 2009 season, the Rays had a team weighted on-base average of .351. That's pretty decent and was sixth best in the league. However that wOBA did not translate into runs as the team scored just 110 runs; eight best in the league.

Looking at individual cases, many of the teams most important players got off to good starts.

Here is the wOBA breakdown for March/April 2009.

Longoria	0.476
Zobrist	0.416
Bartlett	0.402
Pena	0.400
Crawford	0.340
Burrell	0.338
Upton	0.284
Navarro	0.202

minimum 50 plate appearances

Outside of B.J. Upton and Dioner Navarro, the lineup did pretty well on a case by case basis. Evan Longoria, Ben Zobrist, Jason Bartlett and Carlos Pena got off to great starts. Even Pat Burrell had a decent first month. We know that Upton did not have much of a spring training last season, and Navi was just being Navi. Hopefully a 100% B.J. Upton, and new backstop, Kelly Shoppach can pick up the slack from last season. Other than that, it's hard to see how most of the hitters can get off to a better start in 2010.

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I agree, team wOBA by month on 09

.351
.362
.372
,311
,348
,315

The first 3 months were the best offensively

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by FreeZorilla on Mar 1, 2010 7:58 AM EST reply actions

Also, what doesn't help is that BJ was leading off for the first couple months

When our offense was at its best, we didn’t have players on base ahead of the middle of our lineup. Definitely not optimal.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Mar 1, 2010 11:04 AM EST up reply actions

Starting pitching on the other hand by FIP/month in 2009

4.72
4.70
4.44
4.24
4.04
3.78

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by FreeZorilla on Mar 1, 2010 8:00 AM EST reply actions

Just going off perception/memory, but I'm guessing the Bullpen's numbers will be opposite of the rotation

The team as a whole couldn’t get on the same page at the same time.

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by Tommy Rancel on Mar 1, 2010 8:09 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

Yup

Seemed one aspect was always lagging behind the others (whether it be bats, SP, RP, or suprisingly defense).

by rglass44 on Mar 1, 2010 8:26 AM EST up reply actions

Well at least when the bats were going, they could make up for the lack of pitching and vice versa.

Could’ve been much worse if you flip one of those month by month numbers.

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by Buc Wild on Mar 1, 2010 8:16 AM EST up reply actions

Outside of B.J. Upton and Dioner Navarro, the lineup did pretty well on a case by case basis.

Kills you when the guy getting the most PAs is providing nothing, and a guy you’re expecting to keep rallies going kills them. Two of the top 5 as auto-outs can kill you.

by rglass44 on Mar 1, 2010 8:27 AM EST reply actions

Yep, this is why the runs scored didn't match up

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by Tommy Rancel on Mar 1, 2010 9:05 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

Instead of running numbers by month...

would it be more meaningful to look at something like a continuous 20 game trend? Games 1-20 WOBA, 2-21 WOBA, etc… in graphical format. I don’t currently have the data mining capabilities to look that over, but am certainly willing to if someone can help point me to where I could grab the #’s.

by wtbudlight on Mar 1, 2010 10:32 AM EST reply actions

Here's Team wOBA by 20-game intervals

Seems to look a lot like what Mad Dog stated was the problem last year. They spend so much energy at the beginning of the year trying to get on top that they didn’t have much left in the tank for three out of the last four intervals.

Also, I put this together earlier in the off-season:

This shows the trendline for each of our key players game-to-game wOBA. Just about every player had a better first half than second half. To get a frame of reference I looked at the Yankees to see if this was normal:

As you can see, they got better as the year went on.

Be peaceful, be courteous, obey the law, respect everyone; but if someone puts his hand on you, send him to the cemetery.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Mar 1, 2010 11:09 AM EST up reply actions

I can't wait until Wednesday.

Baseball to get me through the afternoon

Shop-Vac

by Sveet on Mar 1, 2010 10:54 AM EST reply actions

Essentially, what went wrong was B.J. wasn't healthy and had no spring and Navi was Navi

So we need a healthy BJ and a new catcher. Check and Check. CHAMPIONSHIP

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by FreeZorilla on Mar 1, 2010 11:43 AM EST reply actions

I wonder how much of the slow start for the pitchers was due to how we managed them in spring training.

As I remember, we gave them a later start than usual and were real careful with them in spring due to the late finish from the World Series. On one hand, we got a ton of innings out of them, but on the other, they were better in the last 2/3s of the season than in the first 1/3.

Be peaceful, be courteous, obey the law, respect everyone; but if someone puts his hand on you, send him to the cemetery.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Mar 1, 2010 11:49 AM EST up reply actions

I'd have to look pitcher by pitcher

But the inclusion of pre-Peterson Kaz and Sonny, who were replaced due to performance was a big factor.

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by FreeZorilla on Mar 1, 2010 11:51 AM EST up reply actions

Here's their G2G FIP trendlines, chronologically, with data points removed

Price and Kazmir got a lot better, while Niemann was quite a bit better, Shields was better and Garza was ever-so-slightly better.

Be peaceful, be courteous, obey the law, respect everyone; but if someone puts his hand on you, send him to the cemetery.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Mar 1, 2010 12:09 PM EST up reply actions

And here's the team FIP by start, chronologicaly, including relievers

It does look like they were better as the year went on, though that could be chalked up to replacing guys with better performers.

Be peaceful, be courteous, obey the law, respect everyone; but if someone puts his hand on you, send him to the cemetery.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Mar 1, 2010 12:29 PM EST up reply actions

No WBC might help.

by rglass44 on Mar 1, 2010 11:55 AM EST up reply actions

Shouldn't we reasonably expect 12-15 wins

from all of our 5 starters this season if run support shows up?

Can someone invent Braille TV?

by I Believe-D on Mar 1, 2010 12:30 PM EST reply actions

If the team gets off to a better start people will credit the increase at-bats in ST

But as Buster Olney points out the Rays have an easier schedule to begin the season over last.

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by Tommy Rancel on Mar 1, 2010 12:54 PM EST via mobile reply actions

Whatever works, I'll take it

We could use a hot start to rekindle some enthusiasm. I think if we start hot, people will start jumping on the bandwagon a lot quicker than they did in 2008.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Mar 1, 2010 1:05 PM EST up reply actions