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Rays Lose 9-6 to Tigers as Niemann, Rodriguez Impress

The Rays lost again today, but don't take it too hard; the Rays had good performances from their major league players, with the majority of the damage coming late in the game against pitchers Mike Ekstrom and Joe Bateman.  Jeff Niemann pitched very well, striking out six over 3.2 innings and only allowing one run on three hits.  A short outing, but a positive one nonetheless.

On the offensive side, John Jaso, Justin Ruggiano, and Sean Rodriguez all homered.  Rodriguez continues to put on an impressive showing this spring, making it tougher and tougher for Maddon to keep him from starting the season with the big-league club.  As for Ruggiano, is this offensive surge (three spring home runs and a .478 BA) merely the result of a small-sample size or has Jaime Cevallos worked his magic again?  Only time will tell, but I'm very excited to follow Ruggiano's season this year.  If he keeps this up, he may work his way into the Rays' 2011 plans.  At the very least, he could increase his trade value and hopefully net the Rays some younger prospects.

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Yeah who is this "Justin Ruggiano"?

I forgot about him.

Continuing head of the Eric Berry and Puffy Rod bandwagon.
New head of the Matthew Barnaby Bandwagon!!!

by 4QB on Mar 14, 2010 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well played, sirs

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Mar 14, 2010 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think it's time to remember that ST is rather meaningless,

that said, it’s nice to see this rather than the alternative. Lets not put him in the line up quite yet.

"It's good to have a little cushion. But it's not going to be easy."

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Mar 14, 2010 7:57 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Exactly.

This is all speculation at this point. He’s going to spend the season down in Triple-A regardless.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Mar 14, 2010 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

I am not a fan of the Spring Training is meaningless argument

It is a small sample size also influenced by big league pitchers working on mechanics, new pitches, possibly holding back and also minor league pitchers. Because of these facts, outcomes would need to be so severely regressed that statistically they are somewhat meaningless in predicting the future. However, if Ruggiano were striking out in 35% of his PA and not driving the ball, it would be easy to say “same ol Ruggs”. His performance has been cautiously encouraging in the same way I felt about Nevin Ashley’s AFL campaign and to a much lesser degree Zobrist’s 2008. I certainly wouldn’t bet on Ruggiano becoming a big league success but I do feel better about the possibility than I did at the end of 2008. TO be fair, I feel this way more because of his work with Cevallos followed by a nice small sample. Without Cevallos, I’d be quicker to dismiss it.

It’s also nice to see continued pop fro S-Rod. There was concern in the baseball community that his power was a by-product of his league in the Angels org. I think at a minimum, he’s displayed he does possess true pop.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Mar 14, 2010 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with your scouting-side evaluations on S-Rod

Watching a little and listening to a lot, the ball sounds great off his bat. I think the numbers-side of spring training is vastly over-stated. The 1-3 in the boxscore is a lot less important than how those 3 AB’s looked and as I said, it’s nice to see the positive even if it turns out to be false hope. As for the Ashley comparison, that was against even weaker competition than spring training and seemed like a complete departure from his normal approach. It’s difficult to argue with Mr. Cevallos’s results thus far and he could be a key reason for the change in approach (read: process) that we have seen from Zobie over last year and the other two in much smaller samples. In the end it’s a great problem to have.

"It's good to have a little cushion. But it's not going to be easy."

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Mar 14, 2010 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

I know it is early yet

Is it way too early to be beginning to evaluate pitchers? How did our pitchers do last spring? Should we be concerned about a struggling Balfour or Davis in spring training, or is it just too early to even talk about it?

Gary Williams for President!
Jordan Williams freshman Manbeast

by terp12 on Mar 14, 2010 9:01 PM EDT reply actions  

I might look into that a bit and see how our players have done in the past

Here, this is worth checking out, though.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Mar 14, 2010 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks, I guess that link answers the question

I guess I am just kinda amped up for this year to start.

Gary Williams for President!
Jordan Williams freshman Manbeast

by terp12 on Mar 14, 2010 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Found this article from Trance L on Kapler at end of last Spring

http://www.draysbay.com/2009/3/29/814640/it-s-ok-gabe-kapler-is-a-s

While Kapler was an asset last year, his struggles in the Spring did carry forward through the first 1/3 of the season. Bad performances shouldn’t be entirely dismissed, you just have to take them with a pound of salt as players are working on specific things. In Kapler’s case, he once again is struggling in the Spring.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Mar 14, 2010 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

2007 spring stats:

Kazmir threw 13.2 IP and had a 7.24 ERA. Jackson and Howell had sub-2 ERAs, as did Ryu and Orvella, and Seo, and Fossum. Upton hit .216, as did Harris, and Crawford had a .287 SLG and .289 OBP. Iwamura hit .133/.188/.233 in 30 at-bats. Oh, and Carlos Pena hit .160/.222/.280 without any home runs.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/al/devilrays/spring.htm

It’s like they don’t matter and really don’t hold that much predictive value.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 14, 2010 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Pena's slash for the first month of regular season was .213/.240/.468

I’m trolling you and cherry picking points. I don’t think Spring has any indication on a player’s overall season. I’d be curious on the hitter side if there is any evidence of carryover into the 1st month of a season (slow starter). In Kapler and Pena’s cases yes, CC, Upton, Harris AKi no.

Worrying about pitchers is useless as they are more likely to be working on things while the games don’t count.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Mar 14, 2010 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

There's a chance Kapler has hit 13 rockets that found mitts and all of Rodriguez' hits are wind-aided.

Of course we have information in the past to support/conflict with these statements, but people really should chill out on thinking spring training performances should dictate who gets a roster spot and who starts. It’s like saying if Navarro goes 12-20 on a rehab stint, he should bat third upon his return.

Obviously you’d rather have your guys hitting and pitching well heading into the year, but if they don’t, it’s probably not worth concerning yourself over.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 14, 2010 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed

The games themselves should not really impact roster decisions or lineups. I mentioned this in Maddon’s moments in regards to S-Rod.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Mar 14, 2010 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wish we knew what most people projected from Rodriguez before spring started.

I guarantee if you ran a poll now, the mean wOBA projection would be up, but if you ran it in two weeks when he’s presumably cooled off, it would be down overall.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 14, 2010 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

You made up those Crawford #'s, DIRTY POOL

I see .317/.474
Aki at .220/.292/.305
Upton .268

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Mar 14, 2010 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Bizarre

Last night it took me with all stats thru 4/707 or the end of ST. This morning it takes me thru 3.17.07 and I see your #’s.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Mar 15, 2010 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

More good reading

http://www.royalsreview.com/2009/2/26/772552/spring-training-stats-are

Basically explains in great detail why ST stats are meaningless but it does point out one exception:

There is one small exception to this rule. As I pointed out late last March, John Dewan of Baseball Info Solutions, most known for his Plus/Minus fielding metric, found that players who have a slugging percentage in spring training 100 points or more higher than their career average are more likely to “performed better than their career average during the upcoming season.” Interestingly, sometimes Dewan refers to a 100-point SLG increase threshold and sometimes he refers to a 200-point threshold. His methodology has been questioned somewhat, but I think there is something to it. However, we need to recognize how little Dewan is saying here. A big SLG increase in spring training leads only to some increase in regular season performance over career averages. He’s not talking about an impending breakout season; just something better than the player’s career averages.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Mar 14, 2010 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Marlins apparently don't know better
Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez — quick to note that he hasn’t given one look at either player’s Grapefruit League numbers — said the decision won’t be difficult if one player holds a distinct statistical edge over the other at the end of spring training.
``I’ve always said I want both of them to hit .390,‘’ Gonzalez said. ``But, obviously, if one’s hitting .390 and the other’s hitting .057 — competition is competition. If one guy’s hitting .380 and the other guy hits .060, we can’t say, `Wait a second, the other guy makes the team.’ ’’

article

by staplemaniac on Mar 15, 2010 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Matt Garza leads the team with10 innings pitched.

At no point ever, never ever, should you attempt to draw meaningful conclusions from that data.

Pitchers are nearly impossible to evaluate in spring training anyways. They’re either working on things or not throwing full speed, and when they do throw full speed, it’s usually against various competition levels.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 14, 2010 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

I have some concerns about Balfour, not so much Davis.

With Balf, I’m hoping to see something out of him this spring training that tells me that he’s closer to the pitcher he was in 2008 then he was in 2009. Grant had a nice little run of efficiency in the middle of the season last year, but he book-ended that with a pretty cruddy start and a disastrous September.

As it stands right now, processes aside, his 2008 results appear to be more the exception then the rule, and regardless of performance, he’s going to have a roster spot. I’m hoping to see something out of him during spring that indicates that he’s not going to be a victim of players who are just going to sit and wait for his fastball to creep up in the zone. If not that, then I want to see someone who’s going to be stored in AAA show that if Balfour falters, that he’s going to be able to step in and get outs without giving up runs, much as Balfour eventually was the reason why Al Reyes was sent packing. Right now that guy is supposed to be Benoit, and so far, he hasn’t shown that he’s there yet.

Davis’s struggles don’t concern me anywhere near as much, between he, Sonnanstine, Hellickson and Carlos Hernandez, there’s more then enough depth in AAA to cover a hole at the #5 starter spot if the Rays run into problems.

"Sure, because of the "cold weather" and rain." More bait and switch tactics by the New York owners of this team." --NikoHoullis, the lead blogger at Buc'em on racial and anti-semitic insensitivity.

by kericr on Mar 15, 2010 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Balfour had a 3.77 FIP.

He was fine. His career FIP is 3.67. He wasn’t going to post another sub-2.5 FIP season. ~3.5 was the expectation and he was right within line.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 15, 2010 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

2009 Balf looked a lot like 2007 Balf.

"Sure, because of the "cold weather" and rain." More bait and switch tactics by the New York owners of this team." --NikoHoullis, the lead blogger at Buc'em on racial and anti-semitic insensitivity.

by kericr on Mar 15, 2010 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Except 2009 Balf faced 39% righties instead of the 49% in 2007.

Which explains part of the ‘struggles’. He was still good and still deserves to be the third highest leveraged reliever.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 15, 2010 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm a changed man, RJ. There's less hatred in this old...Hatred.

But I’m not a imbecile. I have been sitting back and watching you and your fat, worthless statistics rob me blind.

"Sure, because of the "cold weather" and rain." More bait and switch tactics by the New York owners of this team." --NikoHoullis, the lead blogger at Buc'em on racial and anti-semitic insensitivity.

by kericr on Mar 15, 2010 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Both of those have one thing in common. He threw those pitches with his RIGHT HAND!!!!

Problem solved.

Seriously though, I only said I was concerned. I’m not calling for his head, and wouldn’t even think about it until after seeing him do regular season work. I’ve made no mention of him ‘not being good since any particular moment’, nor any weird event anomalies. I have no idea where any of that comes from.

"Sure, because of the "cold weather" and rain." More bait and switch tactics by the New York owners of this team." --NikoHoullis, the lead blogger at Buc'em on racial and anti-semitic insensitivity.

by kericr on Mar 15, 2010 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

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