The Rays know How to Handle Young Pitchers

by Jordan Tuwiner on Mar 14, 2010 10:05 PM EDT

Hey Rays fans,

I recently wrote a 1500+ word write up on how the Rays handle their young pitchers and why I like what they do. You can view the full post here but here is an excerpt:

The Rays handle their young pitchers in a very conservative way, which I really like. They usually leave their pitchers at one level for the whole year no matter how well they are playing. The Rays’ young pitchers usually succeed right away when they come to the MLB because they have spent all, or most of the year, at Triple-A. That is how I would handle the Orioles’ young pitchers.

First, I’ll take a look at how the Rays handled a few top pitching prospects in the past few years.

Jeff Niemann: The Rays drafted Niemann out of college in 2004 and he made his debut the next year, making 11 appearances between High-A and Double-A. In 2006, the Rays sent him back to Double-A where he made just 14 starts due to a shoulder surgery he had the previous year. The Rays sent Niemann to Triple-A to start the 2007 season and he played there again in 2008, registering 49 starts at the Triple-A level. Leaving Niemann at Triple-A for 2 seasons allowed him to become just about major league ready before he made the actual jump to the MLB. After those 49 starts at Triple-A, the Rays decided Niemann deserved a spot in the rotation where he made 30 starts for the Rays in 2009, registering a 3.94 ERA and was a strong candidate for AL Rookie of the year.

Wade Davis: The Rays drafted Davis in the 2004 MLB draft and he reported to Princeton of the Appalachian league following the draft. Davis then spent full seasons in the New York – Penn League (Hudson Valley) and the Midwest League (Southwest Michigan). He started the 2007 season with Vero Beach (FSL) and earned a call up to Double-A Montgomery after registering a 1.84 ERA with 88 strikeouts in 78.1 innings. Davis made 14 starts for Montgomery in 2007. In 2008, David started the season with Montgomery and made 19 starts there and earned a call up to Triple-A Durham where he made 9 starts. Davis returned to Durham to start the 2009 season and made 28 starts there and registered a 3.40 ERA. Davis’ impressive performance at Triple-A earned him a late season call up to the MLB where he made 6 starts. Davis made 37 starts at Triple-A during his career and enters 2010 as a leading contender for AL Rookie of the year award.

This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.

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Comments

One of the benefits of this philosophy...

Is making sure you dont waste service time on a young player learning the game at the big league level. You want him to be as prepared as possible, so the transition takes as little time as possible.

by td32 on Mar 14, 2010 10:52 PM EDT reply actions

I agree

Your not always going to have a guy like Tommy Hanson who comes up right away and helps the squad. Wade Davis will be an excellent pitcher next year and he is just a rookie.

You’d think other teams would learn from this philosophy, no?

www.oriolesprospects.com

by Jordan Tuwiner on Mar 14, 2010 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Dude...

ssshhhhhhhhhh…

;)

by TampaFL on Mar 15, 2010 8:35 AM EDT up reply actions

I love how it prepares guys not only physically, but mentally

They’ve seen every possible situation more than a couple of times and have learned what they can and can’t get away with.

"It's good to have a little cushion. But it's not going to be easy."

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Mar 15, 2010 11:52 AM EDT reply actions

Exactly.

www.oriolesprospects.com

by Jordan Tuwiner on Mar 15, 2010 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions

To be fair, there another major factor at play here.

And it’s the relatively injury free rotations the Rays have enjoyed over the last few years, allowing them to leave their top prospects in the minors.

But this year if the injury bug hits a starter, and Sonnanstine doesn’t fill the bill, whats next?

Hellickson could be in the majors with less than 20 AAA starts.

In 2009 the Rays got 24 starts outside their 5 leading starters by # of starts. All 24 were made by Sonnanstine (18) and Davis(6). That may seem like a lot, but it’s not when compared to the MLB average. That’s 138 starts by the top 5 guys, or 27.6 per starter. And the one sent away, Kaz, made Davis’ 6 starts in LA.

In 2008 they got 9 starts outside the top 5 – 5 by Hammel, 2 by Niemann, 1 each by Price and Talbot. That borders on the unbelievable. That’s 153 starts by the top 5 guys. 30.6 per.

How does that stack up? in 2009 about 75 MLB starters made 28 or more starts, in 2008 just under 90 did. That’s 2.5 and 3 per team respectively per ballclub.

Fluke? In 2007 it was about 80 guys, 2006 about 80, 2005 about 90. So realistically, you shouldn’t expect to get the Rays’ lowest average number of starts from their top 5 in each of the last 2 years from more than 3 guys.

Technically the Rays didn’t either in either year – Kaz came in 5th with 27 in 2008. But only 1 other team had 5 guys with 27 starts in 2008 – Boston. And in 2009 Price was 4th with 23, Kaz 5th with 20. This is at least somewhat more the norm. Interestingly in the AL in 2008, 6 of 14 teams had 2 or less starters make 28 or more starts. NY’s 2 goes a long way towards explaining why they missed the playoffs for the 1st time in 13 years.

Youth may help a bit, but looking at the list of those making 28+ starts over the past 2 years isn’t strictly a boys club.

To be fair, there might be another 5 guys each year that make that level but got traded so their starts were split, much like Kaz – who didn’t make 28 total between his 2 teams in ’09.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Mar 19, 2010 3:22 AM EDT reply actions

I believe that's the real stregnth in how they handle their young pitchers.

I don’t think it’s an accident that the Rays pitchers have been relatively healthy the past few years. Bringing your young pitchers up slowly through the minors allows them to gradually build arm stregnth and to develop their mechanics and pitches without the pressure of winning games or the bright lights of the Show. This methodical process of increasing their workload over a few years is why they can come up to MLB and be ready to play right away.

I understand that a pitcher is always right around the corner from a major injury and I don’t have any statistics to back up my point of view. But this just makes sense to me. The same way that when Dusty leaves young guys out there all night or expects all of his guys to have rubber arms and then many of them spend significant time injured(Prior, Wood, Volquez, Harang) makes sense.

by ReyL on Mar 19, 2010 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions

I think the key part of my point is

that because they haven’t had injuries, they’ve been able to do so of late. And prior to 2008, what would have been the point of rushing anyone?

It’s not necessarily the converse. If injuries had happened, others would have been moved more quickly. Guess it’s kind of a chicken or egg argument.

Necessity is the mother of invention. And contention increases the pressure to make adjustments more quickly than you might choose.

Comparing virtually any team to how Dusty Baker uses a pitching staff is easy.

Unfortunately what “makes sense” isn’t always what is. While I have neither the time, patience or desire to do so, an analysis of the average innings pitched by say the top 10 pitchers as ID’d by BA over the past 5 years across all orgs in total minors IP and avg IP at each level could tell an interesting story. This would have to be adjusted for college level draftees vs HS draftees – which the Rays have tended to favor – since the latter start at lower levels and have more minors years on average. But it could also be skewed by key injuries and a number of other factors.

I don’t think the Rays mishandle their pitchers, and some poorly performing orgs – KC and the Mets might be good examples – seem to push their pitchers harder. I’m just not sure giving the org all the credit for it is quite accurate either.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Mar 20, 2010 3:56 AM EDT up reply actions