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The Tampa Bay Rays Quest for the 1,000 Inning Rotation

Each season the 30 teams in Major League Baseball start their season with one common goal--win the World Series. At the end of each season, 29 teams go home disappointed. While a championship is always the ultimate goal, teams in Florida and Arizona are setting all kinds of benchmarks for the upcoming 2010 season.

Last year our own Tampa Bay Rays set a pretty lofty goal. Manager Joe Maddon said he wanted the Rays to win four gold gloves on the infield. Only Evan Longoria came away with the hardware, but sending all four members of the infield to St. Louis for the All-Star game was a nice conciliation prize.

In this year's camp, the biggest goals centers on the Rays' rotation. Whether it was the plan all along, or just fate, all five members of the 2010 Rays rotation are without inning restrictions. This means each pitcher can go upwards of 200 innings, and the rotation is shooting for 1,000 innings as a group.

Star-divide

In recent years, the 1,000 rotation has become a more rare accomplishment. Over the past 10 seasons, 40 different rotations have accumulated 1,000 innings in a season; however, just seven of them have come since 2006.

Year

# of teams

2009

1

2008

2

2007

2

2006

2

2005

9

2004

4

2003

5

2002

5

2001

4

2000

6

In the early part of the decade, a handful of rotations would reach four-digit territory each season. In 2005, the peak year, nine teams accomplished the feat. You can see that since that year, the number has declined all the way down to one team in 2009 (St. Louis Cardinals). The Chicago White Sox excelled at this, hitting 1,000 innings five consecutive seasons (2003-2007).

The Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays franchise has never seen a 1,000 inning rotation. The 2008 rotation holds the all-time mark at 973.1. The 2009 rotation is just behind them at 970.

Year

Rotation IP

1998

941

1999

876.2

2000

902

2001

932.2

2002

948.1

2003

891.1

2004

867.2

2005

905.1

2006

907

2007

932.2

2008

973.1

2009

970

The Rays not only hope to go over the 1k mark, but they are hoping to do it with just five starters.

Going back to the 10-year list, only one of the 40 rotations hit the 1,000 mark using five starters; the 2003 Seattle Mariners. From there, a few teams accomplished the feat with six starters including the 2005 World Champion, Chicago White Sox. Chicago is one of three teams since 2000 to win the World Series with a 1,000 inning rotation (2001 Diamondbacks, 2002 Angels).

In addition to the cumulative innings total, the Rays are hoping for 200 innings from each member of the rotation. While the 2003 Mariners hit the 1,000 mark with five starters, only four members went over 200 innings. In fact, you'd have to go all the way back to the 1980 Oakland Athletics to find the last team to boast five starters with at least 200 innings.

For the Rays to 1) reach 1,000 innings as a rotation and 2) do it with five starters over 200 innings, it will take good health and even better luck. Whether you agree with the philosophy in regards to pitch/innings limits or not, you have to acknowledge the team has escaped a major injury to a major league starter in quite some time. Hopefully, under the watchful eye of Ron Porterfield this continues in 2010.

With 200 inning pitchers in James Shields and Matt Garza anchoring the rotation, Jeff Niemann and David Price ready to hit 200 innings, and either Andy Sonnanstine or Wade Davis at the end, the 2010 rotation might not only be the most talented in Rays history, but could make some major league history as well.  

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I think pitch count should be more of a player by player decision

I know that Maddon lets Garza pitch a little longer in some games than he would let another pitcher, but in general I don’t like the 100-110 pitches and you yank him philosophy. Each player is different, while one can go only 100 pitches others may be able to go 125 or more. I dislike seeing a pitcher who has been pitching well, get yanked in the 8th inning because one runner gets on base. The bull pen comes in and often doesn’t perform as well as the starter.

Gary Williams for President!
Jordan Williams freshman Manbeast

by terp12 on Mar 15, 2010 9:13 AM EDT reply actions  

I think they do base their hook on a player/player basis

Shields OPSagainst rises from .709 for pitches 76-100 to .961 beyond 100 for his career. Garza on the other hand goes from .718 to .621. Now Garza’s # has some bias in it because he only goes much beyond 100 when he’s on, but thats true of all pitchers including Shields. Just trying to clarify that he doesn’t get better as the game extends. I don’t want last year’s game vs Toronto where he struck out the side beyond 100 thrown in my face as the small sample of the day.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Mar 15, 2010 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

To clarify, I am not a huge fan of the quick yank into an inning either

I’d rather see the reliever start or the starter have a bit more rope on their leash.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Mar 15, 2010 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

I guess my earlier comment was two parts

1. Pitch count per player, which you explained well. I am not for ignoring pitch count, it has a purpose, but it should be flexible. This comment may pertain to baseball in general and not necessarily Maddon.

2. Pitchers being yanked in the later innings while still performing at a high level. I think if he is feeling fine and performing generally well, leave him in a little longer, unless you have a shut down ace in the pen.

The same can be said for leaving a good reliever in while he is pitching well against a batter from the opposite side. I don’t like to see Maddon make as many changes on the mound as he does to match pitcher with hitter. If the guy is hot leave him in, unless there is prior knowledge of a particularly bad matchup.

This may be an interesting statistical analysis, that I am incapable of pulling off without quitting my day job.

Gary Williams for President!
Jordan Williams freshman Manbeast

by terp12 on Mar 15, 2010 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

Part of his matchup game was the ammunition that he had to work with

Some guys could only face righties, some could only face lefties, some were only good in a GB situation, Percival was good at nothing. We’ve got 4 guys now that are pretty good against lefties and righties. That should help quite a bit.

"It's good to have a little cushion. But it's not going to be easy."

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Mar 15, 2010 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

If PC rules still apply this will be a tough task to master

There are some pitching gurus who would rather control IP rather than PC

I wonder how that would work out

by sternfan1 on Mar 15, 2010 9:20 AM EDT reply actions  

It's not either Wade davis or Sonnansitine

it’s Davis. Sonnanstine will not be in the rotation unless their is injury.

by RaysTheRoof on Mar 15, 2010 10:57 AM EDT reply actions  

i agree, but since Maddon said it's wide open

I figured Sonnanstine deserves to be mentioned because he can go 200 if he was used as a full time starter here or elsewhere.

www.draysbay.com, www.bloombergsports.mlblogs.com, Twitter @trancel

by Tommy Rancel on Mar 15, 2010 11:50 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I'm not so sure.

If the Rays really think Sonny can get the job done over a 10 appearance stretch, they might send him out there and make sure Davis avoids being a super-2.

That being said, they’d have to make damn sure, because there’s not really a margin of error available anymore to futz around with a difference of 1 or 2 wins/losses because they wanted to save a few bucks.

"Sure, because of the "cold weather" and rain." More bait and switch tactics by the New York owners of this team." --NikoHoullis, the lead blogger at Buc'em on racial and anti-semitic insensitivity.

by kericr on Mar 16, 2010 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

Doubt it would be that extreme of a split over 10 starts.

If people are worried about costing ourselves runs for no reason, Bartlett being the leadoff hitters against righties should be a concern.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 16, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

Couldn't we make the same argument about CC vs. lefties in the 2 slot?

Is that the solution? Zobrist leadoff with CC/Barty alternating between 2 and something near the tail end based on pitcher handedness?

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Mar 16, 2010 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's a good idea, I'd love to see Craw down in the 5-hole personally

Makes a lot of contact and can stay out of the double play. There’s bound to be somebody on when he comes up quite a bit.

"It's good to have a little cushion. But it's not going to be easy."

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Mar 16, 2010 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

The last thing I want to do is go back to encouraging CC to swing for the fences. We already know that doesn't work.

He’s been slowly improving his patience at the plate and I’d rather see him do that and take his 10-15 then put him in a run producing position and ask him to swing for 20+

"Sure, because of the "cold weather" and rain." More bait and switch tactics by the New York owners of this team." --NikoHoullis, the lead blogger at Buc'em on racial and anti-semitic insensitivity.

by kericr on Mar 16, 2010 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Singles and double produce runs, as well

There might be pressure to hit the longball there, but if you have a guy on second, all we need is a single. It would be nice to break up the windmills with a hacker is more of my thinking.

"It's good to have a little cushion. But it's not going to be easy."

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Mar 16, 2010 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm talking about the literal sense of cumulative totals, not the sabermetric 'wins' stat.

I mean you might be looking at a difference over that stretch of maybe 5-10 runs realistically, my point moreso being that that if they want to win the ALE this year, they should only consider starting someone over Davis if they’re sure they can afford to lose those 10 runs.

"Sure, because of the "cold weather" and rain." More bait and switch tactics by the New York owners of this team." --NikoHoullis, the lead blogger at Buc'em on racial and anti-semitic insensitivity.

by kericr on Mar 16, 2010 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

It will be tough to avoid Super 2 or straight arb eligibilty for Davis

after the 2012 season. He already has 32 service days on the books.

To stay under 140 days – about the typical Super 2 cut off – he’d have to spend less than 110 days in the majors, meaning missing over 2 months. Frankly Price isn’t poised to do so either, with time served through ’08 and ’09 well over that 140 day threshold (164).

by nyyfaninlaaland on Mar 17, 2010 3:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

Aww Ryan:
I’ve known Rocco since I was about twelve, I was the Rays bat boy in 2002 and I’ve known him ever since. He’s a great player and just an overall wonderful person. The comparisons to him are amazing, us both being from Rhode Island and him being where I want to eventually be, I am honored to even be talked about in the same breath as Rocco

The dude’s nice

Continuing head of the Eric Berry and Puffy Rod bandwagon.
New head of the Matthew Barnaby Bandwagon!!!

by 4QB on Mar 15, 2010 11:55 AM EDT reply actions  

The dude's also going in for brain surgery today....

Hoping and praying that it goes well and we hear some good news later.

by AussieGriff on Mar 16, 2010 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wonder if the 1,000 IP is reasonable.

Especially if with 5 dtarters is the thinking.

The Rays have had phenomenal fortune in the number of starts made by their top 5 starters in each of the last 2 years. It seems to me that would be at least as interesting an analysis over 10 seasons as this IP threshold thing. This point was made above.

I’m not wishing ill on anyone, but it has been a nice run for the Rays in this regard.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Mar 17, 2010 3:07 AM EDT reply actions  

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