Jeff Niemann = Andy Sonnanstine?
by Erik Hahmann on Mar 16, 2010 6:30 AM EDT
21 comments
Jeff Niemann is an interesting story heading into the season. Currently he's entrenched as the team's number three starter after a solid rookie season that saw him post a 4.07 FIP. That was much better than most of us thought he was capable of doing after winning the 5th starter role out of Spring Training, especially considering he struck out only 125 batters in 180.2IP. While I wish the best for Niemann in 2010, I can't help but be reminded of a pitcher who was in a similar position heading into last season and couldn't recapture the success he had previously tasted. His name is Andy Sonnanstine.
Both Niemann and Sonnanstine enjoyed success in the minor leagues, each posting sub-4 FIPs in each of their minor league stops before reaching the big show. Though their breakout seasons were a year apart, look at how similar they were:
2008 Sonnanstine:
13-9, 4.38 ERA/3.91 FIP, 5.77 K/9, 1.72 BB/9
2009 Niemann:
13-6, 3.94 ERA/4.07 FIP, 6.23 K/9, 2.94 BB/9
Not too much difference. Where Sonnanstine has an edge in FIP and BB/9, Niemann has the edge in ERA and K/9. Like Sonnanstine the year before, Niemann won the 5th starter battle out of training camp and doesn't have to worry about his rotation spot this time around. We all know how disappointing Sonnanstine's 2009 season was looking like he had channeled his inner Jose Lima for 18 starts. He would only start three more games after June 25th, eventually being replaced in the rotation by top prospect David Price. The Rays are in an eerily similar situation this season, with Jeremy Hellickson stowed away in a glass case only to be broken upon emergency.
Again, I wish the best for Niemann. He seems like a nice enough guy. Maybe its just because Spring Training bores the hell out of me, forcing me to find stories when there really aren't any, but I can't be the only getting deja vu about this, can I?
0 recs |
21 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
Seems like an awfuly big leap to make.
One has 4 decent or better pitches one doesn’t have any. Sonnanstine only had one pitch with a positive pitch value according to fangraphs in 2008 and that was his cutter. Given it was fantastic, last year it regressed back the negative pitch it was the season before, giving him 4 below average pitches. Jeff has four usable pitches, none of which are liabilities, which makes him much more likely to sustain his success with the obvious health caveat.
Tools Whore
I agree that its a giant leap to make.
by Erik Hahmann on Mar 16, 2010 8:59 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Technically, Sonny's slider was a plus-pitch (0.9) in 2008 as well.
And his curve was a positive pitch in 2007. But I understand the point you’re trying to make.
"Sure, because of the "cold weather" and rain." More bait and switch tactics by the New York owners of this team." --NikoHoullis, the lead blogger at Buc'em on racial and anti-semitic insensitivity.
Can you explain what a "plus pitch" is?
And how it’s figured out? Sorry to be ignorant, but it sounds interesting, and I’m curious.
by PullingGuardGator on Mar 16, 2010 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Plus is kind of an arbitrary term used by scouts.
Typically scouts grade pitchers on a 20-80 scale. 50 is league average, 60 is plus, 70 is plus plus and 80 is just an 80. An 80 pitch is as good as you’ll see ever. There aren’t many 80 pitches.
The pitch value scale we’re talking about is something that is concrete. It’s how many runs above-average each pitch was worth. It doesn’t have predictive value without context. So he didn’t mean Sonny’s slider was a plus pitch, just that it had a positive value of .9 in 2008 making it slightly above-average that year.
What I mean by it not having predictive value is that a scout might say this guy has a plus plus pitch, but he has a lot of trouble controlling it. Therefore a pitch that is potentially an amazing pitch may have a negative pitch value because he couldn’t throw it for strikes. I’m not sure I’m the best person to explain this, or that this makes a whole lot of sense. Just a bunch of rambling thoughts on the subject. But there it is.
Tools Whore
I'm referring to a stat called "Pitch Type Linear Weights"
Basically, it’s a metric used to determine the value of a particular pitch a pitcher uses over the course of the season on a scale of how many runs this pitch saved or cost the team. I couldn’t tell you how it’s calculated; I only understand the statistic to the point of comprehension.
To find these, you can use fangraphs, and to see what I’m specifically talking about, you’ll need these:
Andy Sonnanstine – http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7667&position=P
Jeff Niemann – http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8591&position=P
If you click on the “Pitch Type” tab at the top of the profile, or scroll down to “Pitch Type Values”, you’ll see the exact numbers I’m referencing. A ‘plus’ pitch is any pitch with a value greater than 0 (meaning that it saved the team runs) and a pitch with a value less than 0 cost the team runs.
"Sure, because of the "cold weather" and rain." More bait and switch tactics by the New York owners of this team." --NikoHoullis, the lead blogger at Buc'em on racial and anti-semitic insensitivity.
I hate when I make this mistake:
I only understand the statistic to the point ofcomprehensioninterpretation.
"Sure, because of the "cold weather" and rain." More bait and switch tactics by the New York owners of this team." --NikoHoullis, the lead blogger at Buc'em on racial and anti-semitic insensitivity.
What comparison?
Niemann’s fast ball, it has been reported, actually broke a glass mirror
Yeah, the comparison doesn't work.
Niemann’s ERA is going to be higher though because of homer regression, and Sonny’s fastball actually gets more swings and misses (even last year) than Niemann’s does, despite the velocity, so yeah.
by R.J. Anderson on Mar 16, 2010 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Jeff has a higher release point
This may give him an advantage over sonny.
I'm hopeful Niemann's expanding repertoire will offset some of the expected luck regression
I do not think there is much room for improved ERA results thanks to his good fortune last year. He may have a shot at duplicating it with improvement.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
I'm not sure I see the comparison outside of a couple of numbers that aren't even really that close (outside of wins)
Yes his HR/FB is going to regress, meaning his HR/9 should be higher, meaning his FIP/ERA should be higher, but isn’t it possible that he also grows as a pitcher? He really needs to mix his pitches better as R.J. and others have mentioned ad nauseam, but I’ve found Niemann to be a pleasant surprise and an ideal candidate for the back of the rotation. He doesn’t cost anything, keeps his walks down, gets ground balls and pop ups (though those will probably regress as well) and seems pretty durable thus far despite some fans thinking he wouldn’t be able to put 30 starts together. I recall many touting that his arm would fall off or he would be completely ineffective if “forced” to go 30 starts. He kind of reminds me of a right-handed Sabathia. Just a big dude that can soak up pitches. It’d be nice if people would eat their crow once in a while.
"It's good to have a little cushion. But it's not going to be easy."
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Mar 16, 2010 10:49 AM EDT reply actions
Totally different. Niemann was a first round pick, Sonny went in the 13th round
Therefor Niemann is a better pitcher, Q.E.D.
How much better was Niemann after the first 6 weeks
When he was basically able to get past the 5th inning.
PIZZA?!?
That's true. I'd like to see a trend comparison,
was one improving throughout the season and one getting worse?
by staplemaniac on Mar 16, 2010 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Not sure if this helps, but here is their FIP by chronological start with a trendline
I hid the datapoints for the others to be less cluttered, but you can see that Niemann had a really great run after about his 10th start:
"It's good to have a little cushion. But it's not going to be easy."
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Mar 16, 2010 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
If you're wondering why Sonny's line doesn't seem to correspond with the data
I changed the scale to remove anything >8.0 to make it more dramatic. Here is a list of each of their FIP by start:
Niemann
7.33
4.87
5.64
6.73
5.20
7.70
6.80
5.70
4.20
1.53
1.53
4.02
3.60
6.20
3.75
2.87
1.83
3.80
3.08
6.20
3.39
4.02
5.73
2.34
4.11
1.34
1.12
5.90
8.00
3.00
Sonny
4.91
5.20
1.87
3.20
4.96
2.11
16.70
7.26
4.70
7.53
6.20
11.20
4.02
4.70
1.70
11.70
10.69
3.55
"It's good to have a little cushion. But it's not going to be easy."
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Mar 16, 2010 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions
K/9 has shown itself to be a much much more stable entity than BB/9
Niemann could afford to gain half a BB/9 and still be fairly useful. Sonnanstine could not (and was not)
by benderbrodriguez on Mar 16, 2010 6:31 PM EDT reply actions
That wasn't Sonnanstine's only problem.
Sonny’s uptick in BB/9 was much greater than .5 (about three times that, increased to 3.1 last year from a previous of roughly 1.8). It also appears that Sonny’s BB/9 increase helped to illustrate a much larger command problem that led to a huge jump in HR/9 and a drop in K/9.
Sonny just didn’t struggle in one category, he declined everywhere. I’d expect a bounce back of some sort.
To be fair to Sonny, in terms of pure "stuff" his curveball improved a good deal last year, but with the increase in break came an evaporation of his ability to spot the pitch effectively
But, yes, the comparison is still a very hard stretch as 1 full BB/9 is a pretty big change. They are similar in some respects, but Niemann seems to be adding to his repetoire while Sonny seems to be cutting his down (he used to be known for mixing up arm angles which would give the illusion of more pitches, that started to slow in past years). I could see Niemann gaining confidence in his entire repetoire to the point that he has a 4 seam fastball / 2 seam fastball / splitter / cutter / curveball / slider / changeup available to him at any time. Sonny is in a predicament where his secondary stuff isn’t strong enough to live off of it, but unless he develops secondary pitches to take the load off his overused fastball and cutter, then he will continue to struggle. If he harnesses command of the curveball then we might see a resurgence, and either way he should be serviceable in the majors regardless, but not 3.91 FIP good.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on DRaysBay
Related FanShots on DRaysBay
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recent FanShots
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
