My THT Rays preview

Includes fun(!) facts about James Shields, the Rays' lineups, and Rafael Soriano.

almost 2 years ago R.J. Anderson 24 comments 0 recs |

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Dont call it a comeback...

www.draysbay.com, www.bloombergsports.mlblogs.com, Twitter @trancel

by Tommy Rancel on Mar 16, 2010 11:01 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

I hadn't realized Shields had a lower xFIP than quite a few more celebrated names

My question would be, at what point do we start to get an idea that a guy consistently giving up more than 10.6% HR/FB isn’t just unlucky?

"It's good to have a little cushion. But it's not going to be easy."

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Mar 16, 2010 11:01 AM EDT reply actions

Pizza's work has disappeared from the interwebs.

http://saberlibrary.com/more/sample-size/ Steve captures some here, but pitcher HR/FB is not included

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Mar 16, 2010 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions

And here it is

http://web.archive.org/web/20080112135748/mvn.com/mlb-stats/2008/01/06/on-the-reliability-of-pitching-stats/

Contrary to original DIPS theory, home run rate isn’t very stable. In fact, a ball in play stat, singles/PA, is more reliable than HR/PA. This could be something that has to do with the pitchers or perhaps it has something to do with my methodology. Split-half controls for the four gentlemen standing directly behind him on the infield, so it may be that defense and pitching are once again entangled. Still, HR/PA reliability stats are fairly low. Even with a good sample size (750 BF), the split-half correlations were only .34 or so. Seems like a full season isn’t a good measure of a pitcher’s HR/PA ability.

HR/FB was very very unstable for pitchers. For batters, HR/FB stablized pretty quickly. This suggests that the pitcher may be the one who gives up the fly ball, but the batter is the one who makes it leave the yard. So, if your favorite pitcher gave up a lot of HR/FB last year, fear not. Chances are he’ll be better next year.

HR/FB – never made it to .70, at 750 BF, it had a split half of .208

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Mar 16, 2010 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions

That's for a single season.

I’m not sure what the rule of thumb is for career HR/FB to be honest.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 16, 2010 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions

Here's a prediction:

Somehow, this goes horribly wrong:

Come to Tropicana Field, the pitch goes, and the Rays promise an afternoon or evening of fresh giveaways, creative T-shirts, teenager specific hangouts, local entertainment, post-game fireworks and some well known Saturday night concerts with bands that range from ZZ Top to The Go-Go’s.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/rays-drum-up-2010-campaign-for-baseball-and-more/1080099

"It's good to have a little cushion. But it's not going to be easy."

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Mar 16, 2010 11:14 AM EDT reply actions

.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 16, 2010 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions

I think you're looking for the one where he flashes the crown.

"Sure, because of the "cold weather" and rain." More bait and switch tactics by the New York owners of this team." --NikoHoullis, the lead blogger at Buc'em on racial and anti-semitic insensitivity.

by kericr on Mar 16, 2010 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions

"hey baby. name's cornelius. suttree if ya nasty."

Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"

by PlayOnWords on Mar 16, 2010 11:44 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

You read my mind

I hope they put these kids behind wire.

"It's good to have a little cushion. But it's not going to be easy."

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Mar 16, 2010 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions

This is

awful

From Yer Scurvy Dog SRQman

by SRQman on Mar 16, 2010 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Does THT stand for The Heater?

Hit Buc 'Em for all your Bucs news and DRaysBay for every piece of Rays info.

by Buc Wild on Mar 16, 2010 11:28 AM EDT reply actions

One good thing about the season being almost upon us: No more wondering if the Red Sox knew what they were doing this offseason, as a scad of wins should answer that question with some precision. Still, it’s March and, as R.J. Anderson points out, the questions are still out there:

You know what the Boston media doesn’t want you to forget? That Theo Epstein focused on run prevention this off-season. As such, columnists hold a sense of animosity towards the Red Sox’s lineup. Boston scored 872 runs last season, third most in the American League, and hit 212 homers, also good for third most in the American League. Oh, and they did this with Nick Green or Alex Gonzalez in the lineup most days.

Let’s focus on this season though. For whatever reason, Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron are being looked upon as defensive collateral, allowed to bat only so they are allowed to field. For whatever reason, the common thought is that Boston’s offense will struggle to score runs. That assumption is based in something, but that something is not reality.

by td32 on Mar 16, 2010 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions

FTFY Rob

What’s new are the tools that allow an organization to measure bang, and I don’t believe that anyone’s ~~got better~~ a bigger bunch of tools than the Red Sox.

"It's good to have a little cushion. But it's not going to be easy."

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Mar 16, 2010 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions

do we have a fucking game today?

its unbelievably boring without one.

Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"

by PlayOnWords on Mar 16, 2010 12:29 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

mlbtv has two radio feeds

One out of Boston and the Rays one is WFLA whatever that is.

"It's good to have a little cushion. But it's not going to be easy."

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Mar 16, 2010 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Mar 16, 2010 1:08 PM EDT reply actions

if Blalock starys, who goes?

by sternfan1 on Mar 16, 2010 3:04 PM EDT reply actions

S-Rod, Brignac, or both

I’d like to squat on Sean’s contract for another year and the same with Briggy. With any luck, we’ll have team control of these guys until they are 47.

"It's good to have a little cushion. But it's not going to be easy."

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Mar 16, 2010 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions