Andrew Friedman: Trade Master Extraordinaire
During the beginning of this past off-season, FreeZo and I tag-teamed a series in which we looked at a large portion of the trades completed by the (Devil) Rays organization over the years. In particular, we were looking at so called "Trade Strings" - times where the front office was able to turn one player into another player and then deal that player for yet more talent. While not essential to the success of an organization, I find trade strings really fun to look at - something akin to a family tree for baseball players.
One thing that became readily apparent over the course of the series, though, was that our current front office is really, really good at acquiring talent through trades. JP Howell for Joey Gathright. Akinori Iwamura for Jesse Chavez for Rafael Soriano. Ty Wiggington for Dan Wheeler. Delmon Young for Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett. I could keep going, but you get the picture. The more trades I evaluated, the more I realized that this front office dominates when it comes to trades.
And so when I read this article written by Matt Swartz over at Baseball Prospectus, I couldn't help but feel vindicated. For those of you that don't have subscriptions, Swartz wanted to determine how the current distribution of talent in baseball would be affected if teams weren't allowed to trade players and there were no free agents. In other words, players would be stuck on the team that drafted them ad infinitum. The typical assumption would be that small-market teams would benefit in this alternate universe, since they can't lose their players to free agency and large-market teams anymore...right? Here's a peak at his adjusted AL East standings for 2009:
|
Original W-L |
Actual W-L |
|
|
95-67 |
75-87 |
|
|
89-73 |
95-67 |
|
|
88-74 |
103-59 |
|
|
68-94 |
64-98 |
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|
Rays |
66-96 |
84-78 |
While it's not a surprise that the Yankees' wins largely came from spending on free agents, the Rays were the most shocking team of all. The reputation of the Rays is of a team without money that gets by on strong drafts. However, much of the Rays' genius comes in acquiring talent from other teams. They traded Aubrey Huff for Zobrist and Mitch Talbot in the summer of 2006. J.P. Howell came in trade for Joey Gathright and Fernando Cortez in the summer of 2006 as well. Another big move came when the Rays acquired Jason Bartlett and Matt Garza from the Twins in exchange for Brendan Harris, Delmon Young, and Jason Pridie after the 2007 season. The Rays barely lost any of their own talent, with Matt Diaz and Johnny Gomes providing the highest WARP of all players on other teams but originally property of the Rays.Jason Hammel looks to make the Rays hurt a little bit.
So news media reporters and broadcasters, enough talk about how the Rays are competitive because of their high draft picks and home-grown talent. Yes, it's true in part, but the real reason the Rays have become a successful franchise is that their front-office is a shrewd, talent-acquiring machine. If not for the many trades they have made in their history - especially those done since the new regime took over in 2006 - the Rays would still be a last place franchise.
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Comments
Balfour for McClung is another underrated move.
I’m guessing in a few seasons the Kazmir trade will be another example even if Kaz does well for the Angels.
www.draysbay.com, www.bloombergsports.mlblogs.com, Twitter @trancel
by Tommy Rancel on Mar 20, 2010 9:18 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
I'm in love with the Kazmir deal, even after first being unhappy with it
I think the PTBNL which was held back at first vrought about the thought it was a salary dump, but we have three players who barring setback should et into MLB
McClung had a better year than Balfour, but his contributions in ’08 will always make that a good deal
Great article
but watching the spring training games this year, especially the YES coverage, the broadcasters have referenced the Kaz trade and the Delmon Young one everytime one of the guys that the Rays got in return was pitching or up to bat.
The E-Jax for Joyce deal is still the one the media points to as a Rays loss
As AF clearly stated at the time of the deal it was more about the future than the present, so let’s hang on and see how it plays out
Who is this guy?
"It's good to have a little cushion. But it's not going to be easy."
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Mar 20, 2010 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Jason Hammel for Aneury Rodriguez.
Hammel was almost a 4 win pitcher this year and Rodriguez wasn’t good enough to either be added to the 40 man roster or get taken in the Rule-5 draft.
Tools Whore
Yeah, but he was out of options
so that has to factor in, as well as the guy that was kept (Niemann). So you have to factor that into the equation, basically a something for nothing deal. Which is going to happen often with the stacked minor clubs that the Rays have.
Should have traded Niemann?
Is that what you’re saying?
No, but it wasn't a good trade.
There were 3 or 4 guys who we realistically could have cut and kept him in the pen instead of. And while I don’t think he will continue to be, he was better than Niemann last year.
Tools Whore
3-4 guys?
Our opening day pen was:
Cormier
Shouse
Nelson
Wheeler
Balfour
Howell
Percival
Percival is the only one I see who shouldn’t have been there.
by R.J. Anderson on Mar 20, 2010 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Or at least had significantly more potential than either of those guys.
And I realize Nelson was pretty good with Florida, but he was also non-tendered despite costing virtually nothing.
Tools Whore
We traded away the two best curveballs in the majors last offseason
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
You might also have to throw in
the Navi, Seo, Ruggiano trade for Hendrickson and Toby Hall. Especially if Ruggs keeps tearing it up like he has in the spring and finds his way on to the team.
I think one of the worst ways to evaluate a GM
is to tot up his hits and misses. Most deals are misses. Friedman acquired all the following, none of whom have or will contribute for the Rays at the major league level: Tiffany, Gibson, Joel Guzman, Seo (he may have been in the majors, but hardly contributed), Pedroza, Meek, Burroughs and more. He also sent away Edwin Jackson and Hammel, each of whom seems to have succeeded (and we will see with Talbot) and signed Burrell who has disappointed so far.
In every case we can examine the reasoning behind each move and justify it, but if someone is merely totting up hits and misses it may not look good. The key in my mind is whether there is a clear and legitimate approach in the moves because if so, chances are that some important gains will be made, including unexpected ones (Zobrist?). Dayton Moore seemed to defy reasonable expectations in paying for Meche (at least in year 1) which may indicate he evaluates talent well, but it does not make him a good GM; the soundness of his approach to deals and signings indicate that he got lucky, not that he was smart.
Joel Guzman (and Pedroza) proved a bust, but that does not indicate that Friedman is a bad judge of talent or bad GM; his overall approach still appears sound even in that deal which netted nothing for a (at the time) well regarded major league shortstop. There is an interesting article circulating about Huntington’s second thoughts about the Bay deal which addresses the subject very well I think.

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