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Around SBN: Bracketology 2012: Duke Finally Steps Up To The No. 1 Line

Balfour's Homers in 2009

I wanted to take a look at Balfour's surrendered home runs in 2009 to see if there was any sort of pattern or if they were grooved or whatever.  To do this I used Joe Lefkowitz's Pitch F/x tool.  After the jump you will see each of the AB's in which he was taken deep.

Star-divide

May 25th v. Cleveland Indians

Ryan Garko steps to the plate with men on 2nd and 3rd and 2 outs.  Kid's got power and first base is open so you would think he would be pitched very carefully with nothing too good to hit.  So what happened?

Garkocopy_medium

via i273.photobucket.com

Balfour started him off with a slider that was swung on and missed well out of the zone.  The second pitch was another breaking ball classified as a curve ball, but most likely another slider, further out outside and taken for ball one.  Balfour goes to the high heat for the 3rd pitch, a letter high fastball released at 95.2 MPH.  This is his bread-and-butter pitch thrown above the zone and Garko hammered it out to left-center.

Jacobsfield_2009_1375_medium

via hittrackeronline.com

I'd say the process was pretty good on this pitch and Garko put a good cut on it. 

June 6th v. New York Yankees 

After retiring Jeter and Damon on fly balls to end the 7th, Grant was brought back out to face Mark Teixeira to start the 8th.  Here's the location chart:

Teixeira_medium

via i273.photobucket.com

Aussie started Teix with a 93.7 MPH fastball well up and away then came back with another fastball up and over the plate at 92.9 MPH.  Teix was able to get around on the slower fastball that was centered over the plate.  A good hitter that can get around on the high fastball is going to be able to hit it a long way:

Newyankeestadium_2009_1665_medium

via hittrackeronline.com

Teix is a good hitter and crushed it to the upper deck it looks like.  Perhaps Grant should have come back with a breaking ball, but hindsight is 20:20.

August 12th v. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Little Sarge comes up after Grant got Howie Kendrick to flyout with runners on first and second to make two outs.  Matthews takes ball one and a called strike on the second fastball both around 95 MPH.  Grant tries to bury a slider but leaves it in the bottom part of the lefty nitro zone. 

Matthewsjr_medium

via i273.photobucket.com

This appears to be our first really hittable pitch and in a 1-1 count (assuming competent catching) he should probably be looking to drop that in the dirt, especially after Matthews just watched a strike on the outer half.  Let's call that one poor execution or just a bad pitch that went a little over 400':

Angelsstadium_2009_3521_medium

via hittrackeronline.com

August 30 v. Detroit Tigers

I think most of us will remember this shot, at least I have a hard time forgetting it.  Placido Polanco comes up in the bottom of the 8th with runners on first and third with 2 outs after walking Curtis Granderson (probably a good idea) in a game where Jeff Niemann was killin em softly to the tune of 3-1.  

Polancocopy_medium

via i273.photobucket.com

Grant leads out with a high fastball to a guy that doesn't walk a lot, but has a good eye.  He dials up another fastball over 95 MPH that was pretty borderline, but I remember being pretty outraged at the call of ball.  Grant goes back to the well with another fastball up to the diminutive righty.  Polanco turns on it and promptly turns an 0-3 into a pretty decent night on the fly ball that barely gets over the wall.

Comericapark_2009_4112_medium

via hittrackeronline.com

Again, perhaps Grant could have changed his pitches up a little, but at 2-0 he probably isn't comfortable throwing a breaking ball there.  We're starting to see a trend here in the fastball at the top of the zone getting taken yard.  I know he's supposed to live up there with his skill set, but it wouldn't hurt to bust one in on the hands or down in the zone once in a while. 

September 9th v. New York Yankees

Balfour is brought in to face George Posada with two on and 1 out.  Seems to me like this would be the perfect time to throw a guy out there that gets groundballs with a slow runner at the plate and a man on first, but I'm not paid for my opinion, you get that for free. 

Posadacopy_medium

via i273.photobucket.com

This looks like a pretty epic plate appearance vs. Jorge in a game the Rays were leading 2-1 at the time.  The first pitch is low and in to the switch hitter, but Posada fouls it off.  After going low and in, the next logical pitch is something away, which Balfour throws on the outer edge of the plate and is taken for a ball.  The third pitch is the third heater and Posada fouls off the up and away offering.  So far, three fastballs in three different parts of the zone, yes, good 1-2 now finish him.  Instead Grant goes up and away again for ball two, ok maybe he's setting him up for the breaking ball.  The fifth pitch is the "curve ball" in the dirt wich Jorge lays off of.  On 3-2, two on, one out, (with Melky Cabrera up next) Grant throws his only pitch that was in my hypothetical strike zone of the at bat and his 94 MPH fastball gets whacked worse than Tommy DeVito (and there was nothing we could do about it) as Balfour allows his inherited runners, as well as Posada to touch the plate. 

Newyankeestadium_2009_4410_medium

via hittrackeronline.com

September 25th vs. Texas Rangers

Ian Kinsler strides into the box in the bottom of the 8th of a game that is probably all over but the crying with runners on first and second and two outs. 

Kinslercopy_medium

via i273.photobucket.com

 

Kinsler is a pretty good first fastball hitter so Grant bounces him a curveball on the flop that's taken for a ball.  Kinsler takes a strike on a good low and away pitcher's pitch fastball.  Of note here is that Grant is topping out at 92.7 on the fastball after being around 94-95 all year.  The third pitch is a fastball that is taken and the 4th is the third straight cheeseball and gets fouled off as a borderline pitch at the top of the zone.  The 5th pitch was a perfect slider in the bottom of the zone that somehow is called a ball.  Looks pretty damn good to me.  Not trying to walk the bases loaded, Grant leaves a pitch in the top of the zone, but over the heart of the plate that Kinsler hammers out to left. 

Ameriquestfield_2009_4772_medium

via hittrackeronline.com

Some patterns here are that every single one of these came on the road, were usually fastballs up in the zone (or out of it) and at least two of them came after a borderline pitch was called a ball.  Balf probably isn't going to get the benefit of the doubt on close ones due to his reputation.  Talk amongst yourselves about how that should matter or not.  It's not as if he consistently grooved pitches in the wheelhouse of a batter (these batters, at least) and it does look like he wore down a little in the last month. 

Some background, my strike zone is based on a 24 inch plate because it's easy and research has shown that 3.5 inches off the plate in both directions are still called for the most part.  The top and bottom is based on an average charted by the stringers that entered the data.  Speaking of which, you can download the workbook if you would like, Balfour's Dingers .  Within the "Data" tab I have highlighted the homers in yellow.  Much thanks to Greg and the boys at HitTracker for the adorable charts.  Grant Balfour is a lot of things, but I have faith in him, mostly because for us to be a great team we need him to at least be good.  I'd be interested in your thoughts in the comments.

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So throw fewer high fastballs

And get them more down in the zone for potential grounders & pop ups?

PIZZA?!?

by Transplanted on Mar 23, 2010 7:05 PM EDT reply actions  

Actually, hard throwers like Balfour are more successful up in the zone usually.

It’s much harder to make good contact when pitches are up. When they do make good contact however, the pitches go a long way. You get more swinging strikes throwing hard up in the zone. It’s a risk pitchers like him need to take.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Mar 23, 2010 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

So with the exception of the GMJ at bat, it seems like he was just unlucky / got beat by good hitters on a good pitch

2009 wOBA, ISO:
Tex, Switch: .402, .273
Posada, Switch: .378, .238
Kinsler, RH: .358, .235
Garko RH: .338, .153
Polanco, RH: .321, .112
GMJ: Switch: .313, .111

Half of them are good/great hitters, and Garko is average.

It is interesting that half of them were against RHH, when Balfour has the platoon advantage, but probably means nothing (SSS)

by ChiBurbRaysFan on Mar 23, 2010 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Good job pulling these numbers

Our fireman should be good enough to go in an face the best of the best, but occasionally he’s going to get beat, unfortunately it cost us at least 3 wins. I’m not sure anyone else in our pen could have came in and done better.

"It's good to have a little cushion. But it's not going to be easy."

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Mar 24, 2010 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

Trying to best RZ, are we?

Loved reading the GDT today for all of Raymondo’s comments. I like the new and improved Raymondo, even when he’s slamming Balfour. Willing to throw down stats and barbs with the big boys. Hat tip to you, sir!

by Suttree on Mar 23, 2010 7:47 PM EDT reply actions  

Balfour=done

want a stat? 2 Ks, this ST,

by sternfan1 on Mar 23, 2010 8:02 PM EDT reply actions  

Could be worse

We’re paying 2 guys a total of 20M+ to bat about .100

PIZZA?!?

by Transplanted on Mar 23, 2010 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

CC is done too. Look at his spring training average.

We should just trade him for a reliever because he’s done and the time is NOW!

www.draysbay.com, www.bloombergsports.mlblogs.com, Twitter @trancel

by Tommy Rancel on Mar 23, 2010 8:22 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

How about Chad Gaudin?

Maybe NY could throw in a C prospect.

You do know I’m kidding.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Mar 23, 2010 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm ok with Gaudin as long as someone else is paying the tab

www.draysbay.com, www.bloombergsports.mlblogs.com, Twitter @trancel

by Tommy Rancel on Mar 23, 2010 8:51 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

By the way "Andy"

loved this:

Seems to me like this would be the perfect time to throw a guy out there that gets groundballs with a slow runner at the plate and a man on first, but I’m not paid for my opinion, you get that for free.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Mar 23, 2010 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Papelbon also done

2ks this ST

www.draysbay.com, www.bloombergsports.mlblogs.com, Twitter @trancel

by Tommy Rancel on Mar 23, 2010 9:07 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I'm starting to miss Joe Nelson

Any chance Nelson doesn’t make the Red Sox 25 man roster and Rays pick him up?

by rickrays on Mar 23, 2010 8:22 PM EDT reply actions  

I remember Joe Nelson

being a nibbler with his fringy 85 mph fastball…and I remember Joe Nelson throwing the vulcan once to Matt Holliday, promptly to see it deposited somewhere on the other side of the Gulf.

by FloridaownsFSU on Mar 23, 2010 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

I remember seeing him on first take once last year

and thinking, jesus how many people had to turn them down to get to him on the list.

by Dbullsfan on Mar 23, 2010 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Bartlett made an error at 2B when Joe tried that shift that would have ended the inning then boom

Oh if Joe would have kept Nelson in a couple of games maybe another inning the Rays win total would have increased by two (see games at Yankee Stadium and oh that Cleveland game). Point is Nelson is not as bad you think and I would hope the RFO consider him again. Rays need someone who can face hitters from both sides of the plate and Joe good handle that role at least until JP comes back if he ever comes back.

by rickrays on Mar 23, 2010 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Point is if Bartlett makes the simple play they move to the bottom of the inning tied

It’s a tough go mentally for a relief pitcher when a infielder lets you down like that.

Nelson may not be answer long term obviously but for the short term the RFO should keep an eye on the waiver wire if Joe becomes available.

by rickrays on Mar 24, 2010 7:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

There's 10-100 better options

"It's good to have a little cushion. But it's not going to be easy."

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Mar 24, 2010 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

Here's a start

Chad Bradford (35)
Edgar Gonzalez (27)
Tom Gordon (42)
Jason Isringhausen (37)
Jorge Julio (31)
Logan Kensing (27)
Mike MacDougal (33)
Rudy Seanez (41)
Russ Springer (41) – Type B, not offered arb
Julian Tavarez (37)
Luis Vizcaino (35)
David Weathers (40) – Type B, not offered arb

Eddie Guardado (39)
Glendon Rusch (35)
Scott Schoeneweis (36)
Ron Villone (40)
Jamie Walker (38)

Brandon Backe (32)
Cha Seung Baek (30)
Paul Byrd (39)
Daniel Cabrera (29)
Bartolo Colon (37)
Adam Eaton (32)
Mike Hampton (37)
Braden Looper (35) – Type B, not offered arb
Noah Lowry (29)
Pedro Martinez (38)
Eric Milton (34)
Tomo Ohka (34)
Odalis Perez (33)
Yusmeiro Petit (25)
Mark Prior (29)
Jason Schmidt (37)
John Smoltz (43)
Jarrod Washburn (35)

Courtesy of http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/12/2010-mlb-free-a.html

And yes, I’m aware that I just said I’d rather have Cha Seung Bak than Joe Nelson.

"It's good to have a little cushion. But it's not going to be easy."

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Mar 24, 2010 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

And if Holliday makes a simple catch the Cards might have been in the World Series

Shit happens.

"It's good to have a little cushion. But it's not going to be easy."

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Mar 24, 2010 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

Nice graphs

I think the “thing” that works for Balfour’s fastball is the amount of “rise” it gets so it appears to get more giddy up on the hitters, especially above the belt. Although it seems to me that hitter can get used to Balfour’s arm angle and recognize much quicker his off speed. But that is just my theory.

rzar.wordpress.com
draysbay.com
raysprospects.com

by RZ on Mar 23, 2010 9:34 PM EDT reply actions  

I kind of wish I had looked at this more in depth to see if he does a better job of sitting down hitters when he works low

and then climbs the ladder. Could be a good idea for a follow up.

"It's good to have a little cushion. But it's not going to be easy."

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Mar 24, 2010 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

Where is Lance Cormier?

I saw him in the Rays bullpen last Friday night in Port Charlotte but he didn’t pitch in the game for some reason. Lance hasn’t pitched since last Wednesday and isn’t scheduled to pitch tomorrow. I hope he’s alright. I haven’t seen any report of him pitching in a minor league ST game.

by rickrays on Mar 23, 2010 10:32 PM EDT reply actions  

mexico

rzar.wordpress.com
draysbay.com
raysprospects.com

by RZ on Mar 24, 2010 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

Willy Aybar'd

waiting for clearance to come stateside.

by CubFanRaysaddict on Mar 24, 2010 1:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

Our SP better get ready to throw 7 IP

From what i’ve seen this bullpen is pretty thin

by sternfan1 on Mar 24, 2010 7:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

That won't and shouldn't happen

The RFO needs to really think what is about to happen in two weeks. Do they really want both Cormier and Sonnanstine to be the solution facing batters from both sides of the plate. You can certainly poke a lot of holes in Balfour, Wheeler, ability vs left handed bats and we don’t want the loogy facing right handed bats. Benoit shoud not be overworked early on but he could do the job.

With the depth the Rays have with positional players might it make sense to trade one of Kapler, Joyce or Blalock for a middle relief pitcher? Must be some team out there looking for a outfielder who will part with a member of the bullpen otherwise check the waiver wire come April 4th.

by rickrays on Mar 24, 2010 7:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'd be shocked if AF doesn't make a move before the season begins

Your points are well taken, however the omly one of trade value is Joyce, and he’s worth more to the Rays at this point than what we’d get if he’s traded

by sternfan1 on Mar 24, 2010 8:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

my comment?

Are you happy with the state of our bullpen as the season commences?

I’m concerned, does that make me a hater?

by sternfan1 on Mar 24, 2010 8:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

I just seems to me that the closer the season gets the more negative your comments start to sound.

If JP was healthy and ready to roll on opening day then I’d say I was very happy with the state of our bullpen. With JP out most of April I’m still not all that worried.

Relax man, it’s only Spring Training.

One more year Brett. One more year.

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Mar 24, 2010 8:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

i don't try to sugarcoat some obvious problems with 'it's only ST'

And for someone above to compare Papelbon and Balfour is rather foolish. If Balfour had Papelbon’s track record, i’d be pretty relaxed, BUT HE DOES NOT

And yes if JP were healthy, i’d be relaxed, BUT HE IS NOT. Read Topkin today to see how valuable JP was, and remember what our slow start did last year

Go Rays

by sternfan1 on Mar 24, 2010 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

Howell is a concern

Thats a physical situation versus Spring stats

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Mar 24, 2010 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

Past two years

PBoner has a FIP of 2.59, Balfour 3.05
Saying he isn’t Papelbon, does not equate him to Joe Nelson. 3.05 is a damn good FIP.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Mar 24, 2010 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

3 run homer'd

"It's good to have a little cushion. But it's not going to be easy."

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Mar 24, 2010 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

Blalock just last week could literally not find a taker, trading Joyce for a reliever right now is one of the stupidest ideas I've read, and

who would give up anything of value for Kapler? He’s a defensive replacement that looks to get, at most, 200 pretty good plate appearances a year.

"It's good to have a little cushion. But it's not going to be easy."

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Mar 24, 2010 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

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