FanPost

True R/HR vs Expected R/HR for Balfour's Peer Group

I took a look at 2009's Expected Runs Per Home Run allowed based off the percentage of batters faced for each base state (empty, one on, two on, loaded) for Grant Balfour's peer group from my prior fanpost. We will compare that figure to their actual runs per home run allowed. This group consists of the top 10 K/9 performers over a trailing 3 year period. We already noted high strikeout pitchers tend to allow their fare share of walks. Let's see how this shakes out:

True R/HR

Ex R/HR

True-Ex

Marmol

1

1.85

-0.85

Broxton

1.25

1.63

-0.38

Cruz

1.5

1.73

-0.23

Papelbon

1.57

1.75

-0.18

Dotel

1.57

1.63

-0.06

Lidge

1.82

1.7

0.12

Soriano

1.67

1.54

0.13

Rodriguez

2.29

1.76

0.53

Balfour

2.67

1.79

0.88

Average

1.70

1.71

-0.01

Balfour was the extreme outlier from the mean. The mean indicates players should expect to allow a similar rate of home runs in any base state. Its interesting that the wildman Marmol was the luckiest in 2009. I guess there goes SF1's theory that walks will lead to a higher relative rate of multi-run homers.

This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.

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