The Improbable Prediction Contest
by Steve Slowinski on Mar 29, 2010 12:30 PM EDT
Email
PrintProjection systems are great, but they do have their limitations. Like I mentioned a couple weeks ago, projection systems offer a 50-percentile projection of what is likely to happen, meaning that even if a player is projects for a .350 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), there's still a chance (albeit slight) that they could put up either a .300 or .400 wOBA. Odds are they'll put up a wOBA close to .350, but there are always outlier seasons.
For example, let's look at some recent history. Going into the 2009 season, what were the odds that Ben Zobrist would hit 27 home runs and lead the league in WAR? Every year, some out-landing things happen in baseball - things that no projection system can see coming. Jason Bartlett hits more home runs in a season than he had in his entire career. Andy Sonnanstine totally implodes and posts a 6+ ERA. Pat Burrell sees a .110 drop in his Isolated Power (ISO). The Rays win 97 games in 2008. Carlos Pena hits 46 home runs in 2007. Outlier seasons, every one of them.
And so, since projection systems are all but worthless in predicting outlier seasons, I figured it'd be fun to have a contest to see if anyone can predict what zany, improbable events are going to happen this season. Will this be the year James Shields wins a Cy Young? Will Jason Bartlett improve upon his power numbers from last season by hitting 15 home runs? Will the Rays win more than 100 games? Win less than 81? You tell me!
So here are the rules. Any prediction is fair game - whether it be positive or negative - just so long as the odds of it occurring are slim to minuscule. In other words, picking Evan Longoria to hit 40 home runs isn't quite incredulous; if you were to predict him to hit more than 45, though, I'd give you that. Predicting Grant Balfour to finish the season with an ERA above 5? No. Above 5.50? Yes. This is entirely a subjective thing and I declare myself the final judge, jury, and executioner in this contest, although please feel free to torch other people's predictions if you think they're not quite there.
Every person is allowed two predictions about this upcoming season and if any of them come to pass, you'll get a one-of-a-kind prize: the first ever set of DRaysBay staff baseball cards. That is, assuming I can put them together and make something passable by the end of the season, but that's the goal; if I can't, you'll probably get a bag of chips. And if you're extra lucky, you might even get an R.J. Anderson rookie card...
Also, I'm open to suggestions about what should be on the back of each of our cards. Go wild.
84 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Do these cards come with rock hard gum too?
One more year Brett. One more year.
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Mar 29, 2010 12:41 PM EDT reply actions
Oh, that's an absolute must
Although the card idea is a long shot right now. Something I’ve been toying with for a bit now, so I’ll have to experiment this season.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
by Steve Slowinski on Mar 29, 2010 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I recommend something like this
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/scouting-team-fangraphs/
for the statistics. You can be the scout though, I could never be critical of all the great work that’s on here.
"It's good to have a little cushion. But it's not going to be easy."
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Mar 29, 2010 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
So true...I loved that article
Tough to compare with Cistulli, but the template will probably be something similar. I’ll need action photos of all you guys, though.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
by Steve Slowinski on Mar 29, 2010 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Or hilarious fakes.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
by Steve Slowinski on Mar 29, 2010 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I think I left a couple polaroids at yo mama's house, probably NSFW
"It's good to have a little cushion. But it's not going to be easy."
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Mar 29, 2010 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Photo contest caption winners
priceless.
"Hot Tub Time Machine might be the best movie ever!" -Nobody on Earth
by Passionate Apathy on Mar 29, 2010 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I like the idea
BJ Upton puts together a fantastic season including hitting 25 HR, 50 SB, 100 RBI.
Jeremy Hellickson gets called up sooner than later and wins 12+ games this season and starts a playoff game.
Zobrist 30+ dingers
He hit 27 last yearbut projection systems have him at 16-23 with a mean of 20.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
Is this really that improbable?
As you said he hit 27 last year and he will most likely end up with 100 more at bats this year.
30 maybe unlikely, but I don’t think the chances are slim to miniscule
I made my predictions based on being farthest away from the Projection Systems
The general consensus is Zobrist had a career power year last year. So far the HR projections have been:
Zobrist 30 Mean Projection 20 50% over
Longoria 46 Mean Projection 32 43.4% over
Joyce 20 Mean projection 14 42.8% over
Shoppach 20 Mean projectio 15.6 28.2% over
My Zo pick appears the most outlandish, no?
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
Yeah, 30 for Zo is fine by me
I think the Joyce one is weaker, but seeing how we’re unsure where he stands right now, I’ll let it go. And the Shoppach one is boosted by also including the disclaimer that he needs to get >75% playing time.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
by Steve Slowinski on Mar 29, 2010 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Price gets demoted to the minors (ERA > 5)
I wish i could think of a good one.
FreeZo stops assaulting us with Nevin Ashley info
and kericr bans less than 5 people all year. My crazy Rays projections will follow.
+1
I’ll allow these.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
by Steve Slowinski on Mar 29, 2010 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I had wanted to go with Navi and the weight loss challenge with SRQ (I think)
but opted for a few more ridiculous options.
yuck
One more year Brett. One more year.
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Mar 29, 2010 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for validating one of mine, Stevie
I have Evan pegged at 46 homeruns this year, and an AL MVP.
Matt Joyce hits 20 homeruns, and eventually earns full-time RF honours.
Jayson Werth v 2.0
One more year Brett. One more year.
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Mar 29, 2010 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Maddon gets ejected from more than 1 game not against the Angels.
"Hot Tub Time Machine might be the best movie ever!" -Nobody on Earth
by Passionate Apathy on Mar 29, 2010 1:31 PM EDT reply actions
Okay, here are mine:
Positive:
- Matt Garza’s ERA is south of 3.40!
Negative:
- Jeff Niemann ends up in the pen and has an ERA > 5.20!
Extra Zany: Rays win the Wild Card, Sox win the Division...
And the Yankees finish fourth!
WINS:
BoSox, 94
Rays, 91
Orioles, 84
Yanks, 83
Jays, 70
from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
Credit for the guts in that post
Though, in all seriousness, the win totals are too close together. The division winner will win more than 100 games (in 2008, the Rays won 97, in 2009, the Yankees won 103, and that’s since the East became a division with three tremendous teams), and the Jays will be south of 70.
I also think the Orioles resurgence will come in 2011.
by FloridaownsFSU on Mar 29, 2010 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Dioner Navarro walks >10% of the time
Aki Iwamura pushes close to a 4 WAR season.
"It's good to have a little cushion. But it's not going to be easy."
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Mar 29, 2010 1:40 PM EDT reply actions
This would truly be amazing
If Navarro walks that much, I’ll throw in an extra bag of chips for you.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
by Steve Slowinski on Mar 29, 2010 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Soriano gets hurt, McGee lights it up in the minors
and McGee gets more innings than Soriano this season
Starting pitchers combine for at least 13 complete games.
"Hot Tub Time Machine might be the best movie ever!" -Nobody on Earth
by Passionate Apathy on Mar 29, 2010 1:45 PM EDT reply actions
Just following the rules, slim to miniscule!
Though, 2.5 each on average seems possible on paper. Didn’t Maddon recently say something about easing restrictions on innings for the all the starters?
"Hot Tub Time Machine might be the best movie ever!" -Nobody on Earth
by Passionate Apathy on Mar 29, 2010 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
He said something about getting 1,000 innings out of the rotation
and was, as a result, subject to a piece from Trance L.
by FloridaownsFSU on Mar 29, 2010 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
You can take these to the bank
SOriano 50 saves in 53 opps
Pat the Bat 32HR
As far as back of cards go,maybe something for the ladies,something along the lines of size of penis.
Pat Burrell starts > 15% of games in a position (RF, LF, 1B).
Joe Dillon starts at least 5 games as catcher.
Ugh, this makes me sick thinking of PtB in the field that much.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
by Steve Slowinski on Mar 29, 2010 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Now this is a bold predicition
That means Burrell would have to start at least 25 times in the field. I really can’t see a way this is possible even with injuries
I think it's a possibility that Maddon may run him out there a game a week or so to try to boost his confidence or something along those lines.
This is also assuming he stays on the team the entire season; if he gets off to a weak start he’ll get Percival’d.
25+ HRs for Crawford
Rusty gets arrested for DUI.
"Typical negro, laying down on the job." -R.J. Anderson
Navi has 2008 like season
but still splits time because Shoppach has 2008 like season too.
Navi and burrell combine for less than 600 PA. All of the rays starters strike out more hitters than the number of times Peña does
by benderbrodriguez on Mar 29, 2010 2:53 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
1. SF1 doesn't get banned once this season,
not even if the Rays are 10 back in August.
2. Garza wins 17 games and gets a top 5 finish in the Cy Young vote. I know not as outlandish as the first one, but I want those cards.
by CubFanRaysaddict on Mar 29, 2010 2:59 PM EDT reply actions
Here
1. Burrel is released in may, because he’s a joke in the ALE.
2. Pena will continue to strike a lot, so Blalock will play 1st base from august. Pena will the DH with Joyce.
The Rays start the season 8-0.
Assuming they’re a 90 win team, and ignoring the quality of opponent, that means they have a 55% shot at winning each game. .55^8 = 0.009, or 0.9%.
Less than a 1% chance is pretty improbable.
Theoretically, you could just say the Rays will have an 8 game winning streak at some point.
Increases your odds while still being improbable. But I like it…very cool.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
by Steve Slowinski on Mar 29, 2010 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Carl Crawford gets traded midseason, gets NL MVP votes, and Desmond Jennings gets rookie of the year votes.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
PTB is given his outright release by May 1
AND Beej gets over 45 steals
Regressing to the mean streets of St. Pete
by stpetelawyer on Mar 29, 2010 3:12 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Justin Ruggiano plays so well that he cements himself in the starting lineup before the end of the year.
He hits 15+HRs and has 50+RBIs
Mine
The rays go 95-67,wild card, get eliminated in the ALCS
Carl Crawford gets traded midseason for either Buster posey or Madison bumgardner/a Catcher or pitcher prospect, depending on the first one, another littler known bat, and cash
Longo, Freeman, and Stamkos..providing Bay area fans with a bright future
by Jpirate on Mar 29, 2010 3:44 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
*little known bat turns out to be as good or better than Posey.
One more year Brett. One more year.
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Mar 29, 2010 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
If you like miracles
Longo, Freeman, and Stamkos..providing Bay area fans with a bright future
by Jpirate on Mar 30, 2010 1:30 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I think I'll go with some good news/bad news predictions
JB’s bat falls apart and he finishes with a wOBA under .300, but he still gets the AB because he puts up a UZR of +20. (Then he gets a tiny arbitration raise and ends up on the 2011 roster. Reid Brignac cries.)
Zo goes on the DL for an extended period of time, but StB takes advantage and finishes with 30+ HR and 30+ 2B. (Who says Spring Training stats aren’t predictive?)
Bonus projections that don’t count:
Pena :)’s his way to 75 HR…take that Barry Bonds!!!
Not one single player on the team sports a ridiculous goatee (j/k, this will never happen)
Los will post a wOBA <.360
Carl Crawford stays the whole season with Rays and works out a team-friendly (but not super friendly) extension.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
Soriano gets 50 saves
please dont get injured please dont get injured please dont get injured
Going with some traditional stats
I like Garza for 17+ wins, <3.30 era, 220+ k’s and top 3 cy young voting.
Or advanced stats of K/9 of 9+, bb/9 of <2.8 and FIP of <3.5. Still getting love from the BBWAA in the Cy Young voting.
A pitcher will hit a home run this year.
Seems improbable and wacky enough to try out.
Voodoo Five - The Toughest Blog in America (USF athletics)
by Jamie DeVriend on Mar 29, 2010 10:51 PM EDT reply actions
A Rays pitcher.
They only get like 10 games to pull it off, so I figured that qualifies.
Voodoo Five - The Toughest Blog in America (USF athletics)
by Jamie DeVriend on Mar 30, 2010 3:20 AM EDT up reply actions
DID YOU COUNT THE GAMES IN THE WS AGAINST THE NL TEAM???
by ChiBurbRaysFan on Mar 30, 2010 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
OF COURSE I DID!!!
Voodoo Five - South Florida Bulls SBN Blog
The Toughest Blog in America
by Jamie DeVriend on Mar 30, 2010 4:40 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
B.J. Upton
>50 times he goes first to third on a single.
WOOT WOOT! Baseball's back!
by Figgi4life on Mar 30, 2010 2:10 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
4 predictions (because im selfish)
- People forget about the infamous AJ Pierzynski trade years ago and now talk about how the Kazmir trade was the biggest heist in recent history after Rodriguez, Torres, and Sweeney all have huge years and Kazmir is a giant bust
- Matt Garza throws a no hitter
- Jeremy Hellickson is called up mid season due to an injury and ends up winning the Rookie of the Year award (I think someone already said this)
- Jacob McGee is moved to the bullpen and becomes an unstoppable force in the playoff run
by BossmanJunior333 on Mar 30, 2010 2:43 AM EDT reply actions
CC steals less than 20 bases while hitting more than 20 homers.
PtB plays more games in the field than Joyce. (ew)
2 predictions
1) two rays starters get at least 15 wins
2) Sean rodriguez gets more PA than kapler and Joyce combined.
by LukeBaileysaStud on Mar 30, 2010 12:05 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Some positive, some negative
Hi guys, long time no see
Rays infield (Pena, Zobrist, Bartlett, Longoria) hit over 100 homers as a group.
Garza wins more games than Price and Davis combined
Crawford ends up on the Giants by the trading deadline.
The truth will set you free, but first it will piss you off.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Please read our Community Guidelines.
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
DRB Suggestion Box
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- College player makes impossible over the fence catch to save tournament game (Video)
- Security!: Camden Yards guard collides with Royals’ Mike Moustakas
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
- Benches clear at Fenway as Red Sox-Rays rivalry heats up
- Keeping good company: Albert Pujols becomes fourth-youngest player to hit 450 home runs
