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Moments with Maddon, Part 3

My apologies, by I haven't been able to finish the write-up on last week's Moments with Maddon quite yet.  To be entirely honest, I procrastinated doing the math for a bit and now I find myself in a hole, since these calculations aren't exactly the quickest things to do.  The write-up will be finished at the very least by early next week, so again, sorry if anyone was dying to know the answer.

Since I haven't gotten last week's Moments with Maddon finished yet, I'm loathe to put up anything too stats heavy; I'm hoping for these to build off each other somewhat and it'd be silly to try and build off of results that you haven't even heard.  So instead of delving into a specific game situation this week, I've got a topic that's a bit more general: the overlap between statistics and scouting.

We all know (or at least we should) that statistics aren't the be-all-end-all.  Sure, we love our statistics here on DRaysBay, but they're only one half of the equation.  In order to get the most accurate answers, statistics should always be combined with good scouting reports.  Both statistics and scouting data have their strengths and weaknesses, so when combined you get a much more complete look at a player and their skills.  We try and do this in our analyses here as much as possible, but lacking major-league-caliber scouting skills, we have to rely upon things like Pitch f/x, batted ball, and plate discipline data to serve as standbys. 

With this in mind, how do you accurately weigh the value of scouting data in relation to statistics?  Do you favor one over the other or combine the two as much as possible?  If they both give you widely disparaging opinions of a player, which one do you trust?  Or do you attempt to find the middle ground still?  These can be difficult questions for a general manager to make, but they can be equally challenging for managers that need to make game-day decisions about players, lineups, and match-ups.

And now, without further ado, here's the situation for this week:

It's game-day and you need to determine your lineup.  In particular, you're having trouble with the 2B/RF slots. You're debating between Ben Zobrist, Sean Rodriguez, Gabe Kapler, and Matt Joyce for the two openings, but can't decide which to use.  There is a righty on the mound for the opposing team, which makes you lean towards using Joyce in right field and Zobrist at second in order to get the platoon advantage.  However, your scouts have informed you that in the limited at-bats that Zobrist and Joyce have faced this pitcher, they have looked utterly and completely fooled. Zobrist is 2-19 against him with 7 strikeouts, Joyce is 1-9 with 4 strikeouts, and the scouts insist they both look even worse than those numbers.  They can't hit this guy.

Conversely, Kapler and Sean Rodriguez both have exemplary scouting reports against this pitcher.  Their "swing planes" line up with the pitcher's stuff and they've looked locked and loaded against him in the past, although in only five plate appearances each. 

For argument's sake, let's say each player has been performing to that point of the season at the level of their CHONE predictions.  No player is on a particular hot or cold streak.

Poll
Who would you start?
Zobrist and Joyce
40 votes
Zobrist and Kapler
14 votes
Rodriguez and Joyce
15 votes
Rodriguez and Kapler
19 votes
Rodriguez and Zobrist
97 votes

185 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 17 comments |

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Assuming its NOT a reverse splitter

I’m going to stick with my ZObrist/Joyce and referenceChapter 3 from the Book on PItchers vs Hitters “owning” each other.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Mar 6, 2010 7:13 AM EST up reply actions  

If they are performing at projected levels...

Then Joyce/Zobrist would be the better players (according to the projections). I rather stick with then and field the best players possible.

That said if we’re facing Zack Greinke, I’m putting in Willy Aybar and having him pick the rest of the lineup.

www.draysbay.com, www.beyondtheboxscore.com, Twitter @trancel

by Tommy Rancel on Mar 6, 2010 7:56 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

Going back to the stats/scouting reports...

As Steve said none of us claim to be scouts, but that doesn’t mean we rely on just numbers.

In fact, a lot of stuff (I’d say most of for me) written on here began as an observation of something we, or someone else, saw in a game or something we remembered happening. Then we go to the numbers to see if there was anything to that observation. Sometimes there is and sometimes there’s not.

I have a post going up on Monday that is a good example of this. I remembered seeing something in a few games last year and was able to back it up with data.

You can’t rely just on stats, but you also can’t just go on something because you saw it “with your own eyes.”

We try to have a blend of both and I think both are absolutely necessary. Even though most of the end result you see written is stat slanted, it most likely started with something scouting related.

www.draysbay.com, www.beyondtheboxscore.com, Twitter @trancel

by Tommy Rancel on Mar 6, 2010 8:13 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

To this end, you can back up "swing plane", by matching up where in the zone hitters work better vs where the pitcher does

I’m not sure there is readily available public information to do this but I’m sure RZ could figure it out via pitch f(x)

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Mar 6, 2010 8:25 AM EST up reply actions  

Also pitch types

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Mar 6, 2010 8:27 AM EST up reply actions  

i voted for Zobrist S-Rod but i mean't....

Zobrist in RF and S-Rod at 2nd Vs. Lefty’s and Zobrist at 2nd and Joyce in RF Vs. Righty’s

by LKMoreland on Mar 6, 2010 8:29 AM EST up reply actions  

Yep. I'm sure if a scout came to them and said player x's swing is suited better against a certain pitcher

The internal analytical system the Rays use would further/or refute the scouts theory.

www.draysbay.com, www.beyondtheboxscore.com, Twitter @trancel

by Tommy Rancel on Mar 6, 2010 9:07 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I wen't with Rodriguez/Zobrist

with the thought being Rodriguez hits righties pretty well and Joyce is still young and has been over powered (SSS) by this guy in his young career. Zobrist while also being shut down has more experience and will be more flexible later in the game because of his switch hitting ability.

  • that being said the option for other isn’t on here because you specified who is available for these spots, however with Rodriguez getting time in the outfield during ST, if he gets a spot on the team that essentially gives us 2 RH COF options with him and Zobrist allowing Brignac to make the team as well with Kapler not making the roster. So I would lean towards Brignac at 2B and either Rodriguez or Zobrist in RF.

by Dbullsfan on Mar 6, 2010 10:18 AM EST reply actions  

I wonder how the voting would be different...

if Joyce had hit 3 HR is 3 ST games instead of S-Rod

by kevinjc on Mar 6, 2010 12:20 PM EST reply actions  

true

but yes, SSS but everything off the bat of SRod has been smashed and we can’t act like it didn’t happen either. I’d say yesterday the HR was probably the ball hit the weakest of the 3 and it isn’t like he doesn’t have a track record of smashing

by Dbullsfan on Mar 6, 2010 12:37 PM EST up reply actions  

I think I stick with my best players and let them try to work it out.

I’d rather go down swinging than try to outsmart myself and get too cute with it. Zobrist for sure I’d stick with as he may have difficulty against the pitcher but he can work counts and was positive in the fielding department based on UZR. I dont know enough about Joyce or S-ROd to make a real informed decision on them though.

Hit Buc 'Em for all your Bucs news and DRaysBay for every piece of Rays info.

by Buc Wild on Mar 6, 2010 7:34 PM EST reply actions  

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