Rafael Soriano To Make Cameo Appearances This Spring

Jeff Bennett could throw every inning of ST and still blow

The hope for this guy is just a bit extreme. Now I think the best FO in baseball has the proper expectations, but the fans are a bit off. They are expecting some shut it down, top of the line, lights out, strikeout machine closer. Soriano just isn’t going to be that.

Reasons:

1. He is supposedly ‘top dog’. Now I think if he splits some time with JP or Joe does the matchup thing then we will have a great bullpen. However he has split time with Mike G. If he is thrown to the wolves for full innings with no regards for lefty/righty splits his numbers will go down.

2. Health (obvious)

3. He overchieved in his bread and butter, strikeouts last year.

4. NL to AL

Now boy wonder and the great Rays FO probably know all of this. However it just seems the fans are thinking we just landed Papelbon. The best we can ask for is right handed compliment JP Howell. If used in that fashion they could be a two headed beast comparable to the Papelbon’s of the world, but if he is used as the public seems to want him to be used (as the sole closer) I think we are more likely to see a below average closer (say worse than 15th in terms of value out of all eligible closers)

I would argue that:

1. He’s pitched in the AL and had success so I don’t think it will be a huge adjustment
2. While he is much better against righties, he’s not too shabby against lefties either
3. One of the big reasons for his uptick in K’s last year was his cutter. And while perhaps the pitch f/x numbers won’t necessarily show it, it was a huge pitch for him last year if you watched him on a regular basis.
4. While I’m not going to discount the AL East and try to pump up the NL East, one thing to keep in mind is that many of the better hitters were of the left handed variety – Howard, Utley, Rollins, Ibanez, Beltran (switch), Reyes (switch), Dunn, etc.

Health is going to be the main concern, but in reality he doesn’t suffer from that many more injuries than your typical power reliever. His two main injuries (Tommy John and nerve transposition surgery) took him out for extended times because they were either misdiagnosed or were prescribed rehab before surgery. His other injury (2006) was a freak head injury when he got hit in the head by a Vlad line drive.

1. Well I think Soriano, personally won’t have much of an issue adjusting, but his numbers will decline because of it. Can’t expect NL type numbers in the AL
2. Same sort of concept as my first point. Yes he is good vs both sides, but he was ‘platooned’ in such a way to face his weakest side in the past. If that sort of protection goes away the his number will naturally rise.
3. I was going by the expected strikeout formula that I devised. He was a definite overachiever based upon his pitch results.
4. Switching from the NL East to the AL is probably a bit better on the numbers than say the NL West to the AL East, but either way his numbers should rise.

I’m not saying that he is going to suck or not strike anyone out. I think if we are going to set some sort of baseline expectation from him we should definitely expect K’s to decline, and all other stats to increase, especially if he faces both sides of the plate without regards to splits. He will still be a very very good pitcher for us though.