Joe Maddon & The Left-Handed Specialist
"But overall, just continue to work on getting better against righties, because he's going to need to face some as the season gets going along." --Joe Maddon on Randy Choate
Just what you all wanted to read, I'm sure. At this point, some do not want to Randy Choate face any batters, regardless of hand. However, I don't expect the lefty-on-lefty crime to continue, so back to the quote.
There are two ways to take Maddon's comments: 1) you can take them at face value and Choate will be used in situations that ultimately slant the bar in the opposition's favor. Or 2) Knowing Maddon won't publicly trash a player and say "Randy Choate sucks verses right-handers", he is just giving his player a public vote of confidence without really planning on using him that way.
The practice makes perfect approach works in plenty other examples of everyday life. My daughter is practicing writing lower-case letters, and each day she gets better. However, the chances of Randy Choate facing more right-handed batters at the major league level and actually becoming successful against them are not very high. At the very least it's not an experiment I want to see attempted; not during the franchise's most important season.
Either way, Choate's usage has been the hot topic of the early season. With that in mind, here is a look at how Maddon has used the lefties in his bullpen since becoming the Rays manager.
Going back to Maddon's first season of 2006, six lefties (seven occurrences) have pitched at least 20 relief innings for Maddon. Jon Switzer was Maddon's inaugural left-handed specialist - although he wasn't really used as one.
|
Switzer |
% Used |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
|
vs RHB |
63 |
.321 |
.412 |
.500 |
|
vs LHB |
37 |
.220 |
.310 |
.340 |
Despite the .262 point OPS differential from lefties to righties, nearly two-thirds of Switzer's plate appearances were against right-handed batters. In Maddon's defense the 2006 team wasn't that good, and just 34 of Switzer's 157 plate appearances against came in high-leverage situations.
The historically bad Rays' bullpen of 2007 did not have a lefty specialist, per se. However, left-handed Casey Fossum did toss 30 games in relief that season.
|
Fossum |
% Used |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
|
vs RHB |
62.5 |
.322 |
.387 |
.545 |
|
vs LHB |
37.5 |
.369 |
.403 |
.550 |
*note numbers include 10 starts*
Ok, I'm willing to give Maddon a pass on Fossum, who was just flat out terrible. I know that's not a valid argument on this site, but a quick glance of the numbers above back that statement.
In 2008, Maddon was awarded two lefties in the bullpen. The Rays transitioned J.P. Howell from failed starter to reliever with great success. In 2008, J.P. was fantastic against both sides of the plate. To this day he continues to be the key cog of the Rays' pen even in his absence. The other lefty was former Devil Ray, Trever Miller, who was brought back to serve as the traditional LOOGY.
|
Howell |
% Used |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
|
vs RHB |
63 |
.197 |
.290 |
.315 |
|
vs LHB |
37 |
.188 |
.286 |
.248 |
|
Miller |
% Used |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
|
vs RHB |
43 |
.286 |
.383 |
.400 |
|
vs LHB |
57 |
.209 |
.305 |
.308 |
Once again, how good was J.P. Howell in 2008? The answer: Simply magnificent. Trever Miller wasn't too shabby either. More often than not he was used in the right situation. The 81 plate appearances against righties is a bit much, but that includes some garbage time appearances.
Last season the Rays employed two lefties for most of the season, however, during the final six weeks or so there were three lefties in the bullpen. Brian Shouse was signed to be the traditional lefty-specialist, but battled elbow issues early on. Randy Choate took his place and became a fixture in the Rays pen. J.P. Howell continued to throw with his left arm, but was used as a late inning reliever regardless of the batters preference.
|
Howell |
% Used |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
|
vs RHB |
69 |
.159 |
.293 |
.315 |
|
vs LHB |
31 |
.280 |
.372 |
.400 |
|
Shouse |
% Used |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
|
vs RHB |
43 |
.356 |
.442 |
.622 |
|
vs LHB |
57 |
.224 |
.246 |
.373 |
|
Choate |
% Used |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
|
vs RHB |
42 |
.321 |
.390 |
.491 |
|
vs LHB |
58 |
.141 |
.193 |
.192 |
Both Shouse and Choate were very good at their job. They minimized left-handed batters (Choate especially), while getting lit-up by the opposite hand. Also remember that sometimes a LOOGY will have to bite the bullet in a blow out and toss multiple innings regardless of the batter so that could skew the numbers.
All in all, Maddon has used the traditional lefty in the right way around 60% of the time which brings us to 2010.
There is nothing in Choate's career numbers against righties (.276/.387/.402, 4.85 FIP) that suggests he will improve against them at age 34. That said, hopefully Maddon's comments were just lip service. Even if he was serious, the Rays pen at full strength with J.P. Howell and Joaquin Benoit would give Maddon four or five options with better platoon splits to use before Choate. Until then, try not to hate the player, although Choate is not making that easy.
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All in all, Maddon has used the traditional lefty in the right way around 60% of the time
This seems a little low for a LOOGY. Are there not enough other options in the pen that Choate, or any other LOOGY, can’t be more specialized to his talents? The quote from Maddon is disturbing. The evidence clearly shows that using Choate against righties is a bad idea, but Maddon still forces him to face them.
I wonder how the usage stacks up in high leverage situations. Are the LOOGYs still being used against right handed batters in high leverage situations? So far, it seems that Choate has been forced to this year. At this point, I wouldn’t be for using Choate in high leverage situations even if he is facing the same hand. I would expect, especially given Maddon’s quote, that we will still him in all manner of situations. Its an unacceptable risk.
Also remember there are some mop-up appearances that skew the numbers against righties.
I think once J.P. Howell and Joaquin Benoit arrive, Choate can be used in a more traditional sense. Not including Soriano, Maddon would have Howell, Benoit, Cormier, Balfour and Wheeler to use against righties/switch hitters before turning to Choate.
That said, I still think Cormier should’ve been used against Posada, but we’re on to the next one.
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by Tommy Rancel on Apr 15, 2010 4:26 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Thats why I am curious about what the percentages look like based on LI.
If you take out the low leverage appearances you may get a better idea of Maddon’s LOOGY usage.
Would give us a better read.
Off the top of my head, I’m not sure where we could find platoon splits by leverage.
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by Tommy Rancel on Apr 15, 2010 4:50 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Use v . Batter on B-Ref.
That’s how I did the Kapler thing.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 15, 2010 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Quick math says Choate's career ISO vs RHB is .126
League average ISO is typically .150-.160. He’s been bloody awful this season. His OBP against number is inflated by IBB’s. Historically he is slightly above avg in OBP, and below Avg in SLG/ISO. I definitely don’t need him facing righties anytime soon given his current state, but I can respect the Rays’ idea of plugging someone in with a 58% GB rate vs RHB and below avg slugging against numbers.
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Agreed
It seems like Maddon’s quote can be read as suggesting that he’d like for Randy Choate to be able to handle the LHB, RHB, LHB type situations. He’s unlikely to give up a home run to anyone, so while you wouldn’t want him facing Alex Rodriguez in a tie game in the 8th, if he has to face Cesar Izturis with a 3 run lead, that seems okay.
OT: any chance we skip davis tomorrow to go with shields v beckett?
seems like it might make some sense…
That's a tough decision
would enjoy some writers chiming in on this, though Shields historically is much worse on the road and we don’t have much on Davis (he did get shelled at Fenway last year).
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by CubFanRaysaddict on Apr 15, 2010 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Beckett is not that great at Fenway either so maybe it's moot,
but it makes sense to match our “ace” with their “ace”…
Joe Maddon & the fifth starter
Maddon has said in the past that he does not like skipping the fifth starter. I doubt he changes that.
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by Tommy Rancel on Apr 15, 2010 4:46 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
If you expect to lose against their best pitcher throwing your worst pitcher at him is actually a beneficial strategy.
Because it creates better match ups for the other two games.
*other three games
Makes sense, except you should should never expect to lose!
by ChiBurbRaysFan on Apr 15, 2010 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Usage since 2002 based on batters faced
LHB %
Choate 49.8%
Shouse 52.9%
Miller 53.6%
Maddon has used all 3 vs more lefties than their historical norms
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to clarify
Maddon has used his lefty specialists ‘more properly’ ie. against more lefties than other managers had? Or am I reading you wrong?
by proveyrdifferent on Apr 15, 2010 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Looks like he has used these three lefties better than their previous managers.
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by Tommy Rancel on Apr 15, 2010 4:48 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
All these % seem surprisingly low
Although I guess considering the % of batters that are LH, it’s actually higher than it looks. Even 50/50 is facing “mostly” lefties.
by ChiBurbRaysFan on Apr 15, 2010 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Joe is never critical of his players (cept JP and Del)
So I’d be more inclined to think of this as lip service to fluff up Pink’s confidence. With all the brains in the clubhouse and the FO, there’s no way Maddon continues to use Choate v RHP at this rate when all the pieces are in place.
I'm still not forgiving Maddon for refusing to use Soriano aganst the Yankees.
I thought our manager was s’posed to be enlightened. What happened to amorphous bullpens? Does he really think last year’s bullpen failures were because a lack of designated roles?
When the hell would Soriano have pitched?
Friday? Rays were up by 6 runs.
Saturday? Friggen blowout for the Yankees.
Sunday? Rays were down by 4 runs entering the final two frames.
I guess you figure Sunday in the 6th would’ve made sense, but Soriano was acquired to be the closer. “The” 9th inning guy, if you will. Even if it makes sense, Soriano simply isn’t going to pitch in the 6th inning of a 2-1 game.
by FloridaownsFSU on Apr 15, 2010 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions
The 6th.
The bullpen was taxed. It was a 2-1 in a series deciding game and you’ve just pulled your starting pitcher. It’s about leverage, not which inning you pitched. Obviously, Soriano would rather pitch the 9th, but he’s getting paid good money to be an elite reliever and we needed him to come into the game. We get out of that spot and we still have a shot at winning the game.
It’s wasted resources to only use Soriano in the 9th. I understand that it’s the reality of the situation, but it’s not intelligent management.
I doubt Soriano had finished his warm-up aerobics by the 6th.
He’s got quite a ritual going down in the bullpen. Doesn’t look like he would like to be interrupted. You know how those closers are.
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Here, I fixed this quote:
J.P. Howell continued to throw with his golden left arm of justice and STFDness…
from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
some how I missed that in the edit.
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by Tommy Rancel on Apr 15, 2010 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions
OT. Jeff Bennett may have sustained a injury in his start tonight in Durham.
He only faced two batters before being relieved by Brian Baker. Out of Rodriguez, Torres or McGee, who would you like to see promoted from Montgomery?
How can you have any pudding if you haven`t eaten your meat? I`m still waiting...
by Barnese and Bailey Circus on Apr 15, 2010 8:45 PM EDT reply actions
Either Rodriguez or Torres
McGee probably could use some seasoning even though his talent is there
PIZZA?!?
by Transplanted on Apr 15, 2010 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I am excited about seeing any of the three against better hitters.
Much more interesting than watching Jeff Bennett.
How can you have any pudding if you haven`t eaten your meat? I`m still waiting...
by Barnese and Bailey Circus on Apr 15, 2010 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Brian Baker is also a possibility
He had many starts in AA last year. There is also a chance Sonny could be sent down if Benoit is ready.
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Ekstrom gets my vote
How can you have any pudding if you haven`t eaten your meat? I`m still waiting...
by Barnese and Bailey Circus on Apr 15, 2010 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions

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