Rays' Farm Position Player Watch
by FreeZorilla on Apr 25, 2010 9:00 AM EDT
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This is a new feature with the plan to alternate weeks between pitching to give an overview of how the hitters on the farm are doing year-to-date. It's a combination of true prospects, AAA replacement players, and fringe players who are performing well. For the first week we will keep true to prospects and replacement players only due to sample size issues, but you'll note the bubble players at the bottom who are at risk of falling off or being added to the Watch. Let me know how you would like this list to be sorted in the future but for this week we will use OPS. Ages will remain constant through the season based on today's date.
|
Hitter |
Age |
Pos |
Level |
PA |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
BB% |
K% |
HR |
SB |
CS |
|
Dan Johnson |
30 |
1B |
AAA |
53 |
0.333 |
0.396 |
0.792 |
9.4% |
17.0% |
7 |
0 |
0 |
|
Jose Lobaton |
25 |
C |
AAA |
14 |
0.455 |
0.571 |
0.545 |
21.4% |
28.6% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Ryan Shealy |
30 |
1B |
AAA |
38 |
0.324 |
0.400 |
0.618 |
10.5% |
18.4% |
2 |
0 |
0 |
|
Matt Sweeney |
22 |
3B |
A+ |
42 |
0.256 |
0.362 |
0.564 |
16.7% |
26.2% |
3 |
0 |
0 |
|
Hank Blalock |
29 |
1B |
AAA |
35 |
0.394 |
0.417 |
0.485 |
5.7% |
25.7% |
1 |
0 |
0 |
|
Mark Thomas |
21 |
C |
A |
38 |
0.333 |
0.368 |
0.500 |
5.3% |
21.1% |
2 |
1 |
0 |
|
Justin Ruggiano |
28 |
OF |
AAA |
57 |
0.300 |
0.397 |
0.440 |
12.3% |
22.8% |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
Kyeong Kang |
22 |
OF |
A+ |
40 |
0.308 |
0.386 |
0.436 |
12.5% |
12.5% |
0 |
0 |
1 |
|
Desmond Jennings |
23 |
CF |
AAA |
17 |
0.286 |
0.412 |
0.357 |
17.7% |
17.7% |
0 |
3 |
0 |
|
Chris Murrill |
21 |
CF |
A |
56 |
0.340 |
0.375 |
0.377 |
5.4% |
16.1% |
0 |
4 |
1 |
|
Fernando Perez |
27 |
CF |
AAA |
57 |
0.288 |
0.345 |
0.385 |
8.8% |
10.5% |
0 |
8 |
2 |
|
Cody Cipriano |
25 |
2B |
AA |
47 |
0.237 |
0.383 |
0.316 |
19.2% |
23.4% |
0 |
3 |
0 |
|
Elliot Johnson |
26 |
Util |
AAA |
55 |
0.220 |
0.291 |
0.320 |
9.1% |
32.7% |
1 |
7 |
0 |
|
Nevin Ashley |
25 |
C |
AA |
4 |
0.500 |
0.500 |
0.100 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Brett Nommensen |
23 |
OF |
A |
55 |
0.224 |
0.304 |
0.286 |
10.9% |
12.7% |
0 |
6 |
0 |
|
Tim Beckham |
20 |
SS |
A+ |
23 |
0.182 |
0.217 |
0.364 |
4.4% |
30.4% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
Tyler Bortnick |
22 |
SS |
A |
52 |
0.213 |
0.288 |
0.234 |
9.6% |
15.4% |
0 |
4 |
1 |
|
Jake Jefferies |
22 |
C |
A+ |
35 |
0.175 |
0.175 |
0.275 |
0.0% |
20.0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
On the Bubble Out: Jake Jefferies, Tyler Bortnick, Brett Nommensen
On the Bubble In: Isaias Velasquez, Reid Fronk, Matt Fields
Minor Notes:
*Jake McGee threw a bullpen but will miss his scheduled start Monday. Darin Downs will take his place.Fortunately it does not sound serious. (H/T Stacy Long)
*Chris Nowak will report to Montgomery.
88 comments
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Comments
1. Who is the future Pena replacement?
2. Holy Smokes Dan Johnson
3. Tim Beckham was the worst move of this front office by far. At this point I don’t think he even makes the majors and if he does he won’t be an impact player. The issue is the opportunity cost, as there were some real solid players in that draft we passed up….
Go Gators!!
by matthan on Apr 25, 2010 9:52 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
3. Tim Beckham was the worst move of this front office by far. At this point I don’t think he even makes the majors and if he does he won’t be an impact player. The issue is the opportunity cost, as there were some real solid players in that draft we pass
That’s dumb. Hindsight is 20/20, and I doubt you had a feel for judging two players who you’d rarely (or never) seen.
Regardless, the LeVon debacle is a bigger mistake.
by rglass44 on Apr 25, 2010 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Didnt need to see them
There were players with an established track-record of college success that could easily be gleaned from a stat sheet. The Rays don’t have the luxury of developing a guy like Beckham for seven years.
by GomesSweetGomes on Apr 26, 2010 8:51 AM EDT up reply actions
So you're saying the Rays need to stay away from H.S. players in general?
No Moore, Hellickson, Davis, Deezy, etc…
"I think we should put this guy on blast and let all the guys around town know to make sure you don’t leave your GFs around Evan Longoria while he’s in town because he has no class or respect for other men."
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Apr 26, 2010 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions
With regards to first round picks, that is exactly what I'm saying
None of the guys you mentioned got the type of bonus that Beckham got
by GomesSweetGomes on Apr 26, 2010 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Upton didnt exactly shoot out of the gate
You can’t, with a straight face, explain away the service time that was wasted on him early.
by GomesSweetGomes on Apr 26, 2010 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions
And Crawford doesnt need to take a lot fo walks to be an effective left-fielder
Does this mean the Rays should stop targeting guys who take a lot of walks?
by GomesSweetGomes on Apr 26, 2010 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Pointing to a few guys and saying 'there' doesnt disporve that college picks are safer
by GomesSweetGomes on Apr 26, 2010 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions
No more than pointing to crawford as a guy who doesnt take walks and succeed proves
That plate discipline is overrated
by GomesSweetGomes on Apr 26, 2010 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Who cares about safe?
Trading DY wasn’t “safe,” nor was drafting Upton. The “safe” picks like Niemann and Townsend didn’t end up being that. Even if college players are “safer,” you have to balance risk/reward. The FO obviosly felt Beckham was the best pick there. They are still high on him, and he was fine last year. Citing Moneyball to prove/disprove anything at this point is silly.
Also, the exception doesnt prove the rule
The appearance of high school players (many of them late rounders) doesnt mean that they are less risky
by GomesSweetGomes on Apr 26, 2010 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions
I'd say the system works and because it works
the Rays are able to take the time to develop players such as Beckham and the others listed in this thread. If start only drafting close-to-ready guys then we’ll turn into the Astros.
"I think we should put this guy on blast and let all the guys around town know to make sure you don’t leave your GFs around Evan Longoria while he’s in town because he has no class or respect for other men."
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Apr 26, 2010 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions
*if they
"I think we should put this guy on blast and let all the guys around town know to make sure you don’t leave your GFs around Evan Longoria while he’s in town because he has no class or respect for other men."
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Apr 26, 2010 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions
I'd limit this to the 1st round
Nobody is saying that we should not draft high schoolers…but with the millions a first-rounder costs, and the fact we will always need to immediately fill holes at the major league level with homegrown talent, it makes sense to draft an Alvarez/Posey over a guy like Beckham, who we know won’t give us anything for several years.
by GomesSweetGomes on Apr 26, 2010 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Agree to disagree, I guess.
In the first round you take who your scouts tell you has the higher upside. Even if they’re 4+ years away from helping the team.
"I think we should put this guy on blast and let all the guys around town know to make sure you don’t leave your GFs around Evan Longoria while he’s in town because he has no class or respect for other men."
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Apr 26, 2010 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Aren't your arms getting tired from all this cherry-picking?
by GomesSweetGomes on Apr 26, 2010 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions
I did
It completely ignores the year at which said players matriculate to the MLB
by GomesSweetGomes on Apr 26, 2010 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Not to mention the incredibly crude methodology
It takes subjective opinions, and then quantifies them as fact.
by GomesSweetGomes on Apr 26, 2010 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions
If you'd like to cite to something that uses WAR (or something similar)
I’m all ears. Calling me names because I don’t buy an inherently flawed study…no time for that. Im out for the day
by GomesSweetGomes on Apr 26, 2010 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions
waaa waaa waaaa
Don’t troll then.
Every FO that has any clue, every analyst that has any clue, every scout that has any clue, etc. says you go with the player who has the highest upside in regards to risk. So your opinion is different. Congrats. Opinions are like assholes. I don’t really care what you believe.
Seriously?
Just got back from work & softball.
Anybody who has any clue? Opinions are like assholes? What is this, the Duemig show? I really don’t understand the knee-jerk vitriol.
And what makes high upside mutually exclusive from safest pick? Even you seemed to think Alvarez had a higher upside.
I really don’t understand why you have such a dick about things. So I don’t agree with what other people have written in this thread, or the (admittedly) subjective study done on it. Fucking sue me.
by GomesSweetGomes on Apr 26, 2010 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I did want Alvarez.
I was familliar with him. He was a big bat.
My point, though, has always been that the Rays took who they’re scouts were highest on.
Sorry for being an ass, but we had already hashed this out. You don’t pass on the guy that you feel is the best talent because he’s a high schooler. Scouts can be wrong. They may well have been wrong about Beckham, but I still think it’s way to early to say this is the biggest mistake this FO has made.
I do take issue with the comment “The Rays don’t have the luxury of developing a guy like Beckham for seven years.” Most every elite talent in the majors (especially position players) were HS guys. We’ve gone through and laid out all the 1:1s that were from the HS ranks and the college ranks and the HS ones far outclass them.
Again, I apologize for being an ass. It was Monday morning, and I had too much shit to do to rehash an argument. My bad. I should have just stayed away.
I really appreciate the apology
And I do think I need to expand on my point…I think it would be better suited to a fanpost, as I recognize I may have over-simplified the issue. Now all I gotta do is find time to do some research regarding matriculation, WAR, player selection, and why I believe a college strategy is better for the rays in the first round…who knows, maybe i’ll prove myself wrong.
by GomesSweetGomes on Apr 27, 2010 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Why does that matter?
We want continued waves of talent. We can’t afford to pay a bunch of guys at the same time.
Little bit early to say a 20 yr old in A+ ball wont make the majors.
www.draysbay.com, www.bloombergsports.mlblogs.com, Twitter @trancel
by Tommy Rancel on Apr 25, 2010 10:41 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
For what little, very little, it is worth,
I saw Beckham in Charlotte a couple of nights ago, and although he only had two or three plays at SS, he made them smoothly and without the awkwardness that I saw last year at Bowling Green. In fact, he made one excellent play deep in the hole and made a perfect throw to nip the runner at 1B. Unlike last year, he set himself properly before letting go.
He did not get a hit, but hit the ball solidly most times up with one line drive to deep CF that the fielder just snared on the run.
When I saw him in the spring I thought he looked smooth as well.
His numbers were fine last year considering age/position and the team completely retooled his swing.
How good would Buster Posey look behind the dish right now?
Or Pedro Alvarez getting ready to take over at first next year. I will say that Beckham has a terrific looking swing, so maybe there’s something there. But a little production eventually would be nice.
The Posey/Beckham situation still strikes me as odd...
And this really doesn’t have anything to do with hindsight…
I’m not sure if someone has better insight, but I thought the reasoning immediately after (during) the draft was:
1. Posey had outrageous demands, much more than the Rays wanted to pay.
2. Beckham was higher on the Rays board.
The skeptic in me thinks one had a lot to do with two. That said, Posey ended up signing for roughly what Beckham did, though I can see how picking Posey #1 could have led to him demanding much more.
He's played in how many games in 2010?
Following the minors now because the big squad’s playing well?
This Top Prospects won't be off the board anytime soon
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by FreeZorilla on Apr 25, 2010 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions
As i mentioned in minor league highlights
Never, never, never take a HS player with the 1st overall pick
Odds are way against you
the likelyhood of a HS player making it to the MLB is less than 1/2 that of a college player
and yes for a pitcher it’s even worse
That's not what we're looking at thought..
You aren’t look at “any” high school player. You’re looking at a high school hitter that was thought to be an elite talent. The odds of that player making it and being successful is pretty high. The Rays were not wrong in selecting a high school position player. Beckham being a flop doesn’t mean it was a bad decision at the time.
by tallyray on Apr 25, 2010 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Point tallyray
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by FreeZorilla on Apr 25, 2010 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions
That's silly...
A-Rod, Griffey, Chipper…
Really, if you look from 1990-2005, it’s not really close.
High School: Chipper, Brien Taylor, A-Rod, Hamilton, Adrian Gonzalez, Joe Mauer, Delmon Young, Matt Bush, Justin Upton
College: Phil Nevin, Paul Wilson, Darin Erstad, Kris Benson, Matt Anderson, Pat Burrell, Bryan Bullington…
Which group would you prefer?
by tallyray on Apr 25, 2010 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Actually, jump back further...
In the 1980s, the high school # 1’s were:
Strawberry, Dunston, Shawn Abner, Griffey
College: Mike Moore, Tim Belcher, BJ Surhoff, Jeff King, Andy Benes, Ben McDonald
Isn't that what is listed above?
Or are you talking all first rounders?
As RJ said, that study has been done before..
I’ll try and find it.
Here's one...
So, is there any such thing as a safe pick? Not really. But interestingly enough, prep hitters were the more successful choice between 2001 and 2003, followed by… prep pitchers.
I’d be willing to bet that as the general thought that its safer to pick a college player has become more mainstream, the success rate of high school players has increased.
The comparisons have been done before.
I like how people are in panic mode over 23 PA. The Rays are still high on him. He works extremely hard and has ridiculous batspeed. That’s a good combination.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 25, 2010 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions
The A's haven't been very good at drafting as of late.
Most of their young talent is from trades.
Besides, you’re not using Moneyball as a current reference for their drafting strategy, are you?
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 25, 2010 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Should be 1.000 as he was 2-4 with a single and triple at the point of compilation
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by FreeZorilla on Apr 25, 2010 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Let's see Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr. v. Jeff Clement
Answer is???
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 25, 2010 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions
I guess we'll have to wait and see on this one--but odds are against him
and any predictions as to where he lands in 2011 Top prospects?
I imagine he'll stick around the top 25-50 unless he rakes.
The big knock on him was his body last year, and he looks good.
Different people rate differently though.
You guys act like the Rays had no idea Buster Posey would be good.
Newsflash: They knew. They also knew he’d be up far quicker than Beckham too. They still thought Beckham was the better choice. If you’re jumping off a bridge because of 20 plate appearances, then it’s pretty clear you just want a reason to dislike the kid.
I really like NOM NOM NOM.
Having never seen him play, but I just like the kid. Looks like he’s having some BABIP issues right now, but I love his approach.
No Trollin',
but it seems like Timmy strikes out a lot. I’m sure that’s something he will be working on. If his defense is improving, then I don’t see why he can’t be a great player in the future.
Any possibility that Navi's terrific first half in '08 influenced their decision
to not take Posey? Even unconsciously.
I was hoping we landed Posey. Kid can play anywhere but 1st/catcher most likey.
Kid is a BEAST! That said, there isn’t much to complain about. We by far & away have the best farm team in the league!
GO NOLES!!! SCALP EM!
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