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Free John Jaso: A Story of Irrational Love Told With Rational Facts

ST. PETERSBURG - APRIL 25:  Catcher John Jaso #28 of the Tampa Bay Rays is congratulated by pitcher Lance Cormier #31 after the game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Tropicana Field on April 25, 2010 in St. Petersburg, Florida.  (Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images)

After reading Tommy's article last week and watching John Jaso play this weekend, I'm going to make a bold (and possibly rash) move: I'm jumping fully on board the "Free Jaso" bandwagon. I know he's only had 20 plate appearances so far - a sample size so small, it's virtually useless - and I hate to fuel over-enthusiastic hype about a player, but screw it, I'm making the jump. 

Once Shoppach returns from his knee injury and surgery, Dioner Navarro and John Jaso are going to be fighting for one roster spot. It would be easy for the Rays to justify sending Jaso back down to the minors; he has options remaining and Navarro doesn't, not to mention that Navarro is being paid $2M this season. This season, though, the Rays are going all in against the Yanks and Red Sox, meaning even small improvements in the team are important and the Rays shouldn't be worried about eating $2M if necessary. So if we're not worrying about contract status or options, who is the better player: Jaso or Navarro?

Tommy already answered this question and concluded that Jaso deserves a shot based upon his offense, but I want to try and quantify that difference. What's the break-even point? Is Jaso so much better than Navarro on offense to make any defensive difference moot? Let's see...

Star-divide

Offensively, the difference between Navarro and Jaso is pretty stark. Navarro is dead weight at the plate right now and Maddon has clearly lost hope, benching him more often and having him sacrifice bunt in any meaningful situation. Navarro has been unlucky to date (.162 BABIP) and so his numbers will most likely rebound some, but consider this: Navarro's most optimistic projection for this season (CHONE, for those interested) has him as a .310 wOBA batter; Jaso's most pessimistic projection (Marcels) has him as a .322 wOBA batter. That's a difference of 5 runs, or half a win.

If you look at what the players are most likely to produce, the difference becomes even wider. The ZiPS projection system is updating player projections after every game, incorporating recent data to make their projections even more accurate. According to their system, by the end of the season Navarro will raise his wOBA to .277 and Jaso will have his drop to .330. That's an 18 run difference, or nearly two wins.

We have no way of quantifying catcher defense, but could Jaso really be 18 runs worse on defense than Navarro? Last season, eighteen defensive runs was the difference between Evan Longoria and Jhonny Peralta. Carl Crawford and Alfonso Soriano. Elvis Andrus and Christian Guzman. Troy Tulowitzki and Yuniesky Betancourt. Heck, at second base, eighteen runs was nearly the difference between the best in the league (Chase Utley, 11.6 UZR) and the worst in the league (Luis Castillo, -11.2 UZR). It's a huge difference.

It would be one thing if Navarro had a reputation behind the plate like Joe Mauer, but I've only ever heard him talked about as an average to slightly-below-average defensive catcher. Jaso has flashed some good leather behind the plate so far, leading Joe Maddon to say he's a completely different player than he saw at spring training two years ago. He may still be worse defensively than Navarro, but not 18 runs worse.

There is still at least a month before Shoppach comes back from his surgery, so there is no rush for the Rays to make a decision anytime soon. If Jaso continues to show his plate discipline and performs passably behind the plate, though, I don't see how the Rays can justify sending him back down. Free John Jaso!

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Isn't it more the RoS projection that matters?

In that case the difference (while pretty huge) is .321 and .290. Over 300 PAs that’s roughly 8 runs or just less than a win.

by rglass44 on Apr 26, 2010 2:07 PM EDT reply actions  

Good point, I could have looked at it that way too.

I think the true answer is somewhere in-between. I don’t think the gap between the two will be as big as 18 runs necessarily, but it’ll probably be somewhere in the range of 8-15 runs. Still pretty sizable and I don’t think they’re that far apart on D.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Apr 26, 2010 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Assuming Shoppach comes back and faces LHP

That would leave Navi or Jaso against RHP. The offensive gap between Jaso and Navi against RHP should be even larger assuming Jaso’s wOBA against RHP at the mlb level is >.321.

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by Tommy Rancel on Apr 26, 2010 2:24 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

He undoubtedly is, but by how much?

I think the trade-off is worth it, but that’s just me.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Apr 26, 2010 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Regardless if he's better than Navi by 1 run or 20 runs defensively

He’s still better on offense and should be the primary catcher until Shoppach gets back.

Sign lady must die.

by EminenceFront on Apr 26, 2010 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh, did you mean for your original comment to read the other way around?

That would make more sense.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Apr 26, 2010 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

What would be interesting is if you could look at the games caught by Navi and Jaso

and compare the BrooksBaseball PitchFX zones to see which catcher had a better chance at getting strikes called off the plate.

Obviously it would be skewed because of different umpires, conditions, etc. But with a large enough sample size it could tell us something.

Sign lady must die.

by EminenceFront on Apr 26, 2010 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hmm...I don't think we have a bit enough sample for Jaso yet.

Interesting idea, but we’d have to try it later on in the season.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Apr 26, 2010 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Obviously no where near the amount of data.

But it would be interesting perhaps at the end of the season to see which had a “larger” strike zone.

Sign lady must die.

by EminenceFront on Apr 26, 2010 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Bumoing an umpire is not the way to get calls on the black

How can you have any pudding if you haven`t eaten your meat? I`m still waiting...

by Barnese and Bailey Circus on Apr 26, 2010 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

*bumping

How can you have any pudding if you haven`t eaten your meat? I`m still waiting...

by Barnese and Bailey Circus on Apr 26, 2010 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Did Friedman and company ever say we were all in this year

or is that just us putting two and two together based on higher payroll and the potential to lose CC and Pena?

For what it’s worth, I fully support the Free Jason movement.

As you can always expect come from behind victory is when you least expect it.

by Buc Wild on Apr 26, 2010 2:13 PM EDT reply actions  

Stu texted it to sf1

RIP Andy Hellicksonstine. He died, like so many young men of his generation, he died before his time. In your wisdom, SBN, you took him, as you took so many bright flowering young men at the OTTOTD. These young men gave their lives. And so would Andy. Andy, who loved trannies.

by PlayOnWords on Apr 26, 2010 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Just us putting two and two together.

I think the addition of Soriano and not trading Bartlett really drove the point home.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Apr 26, 2010 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fair enough, just curious if the FO had said that publicly. Either way, I get the idea.

As you can always expect come from behind victory is when you least expect it.

by Buc Wild on Apr 26, 2010 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

For what it's worth, we're not the only ones stating this.

This article is linked to right on the front page of the St. Pete Times’ Rays section – Rays Going All In.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Apr 26, 2010 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Jason Cromer?

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Apr 26, 2010 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Theory: John Jaso's batting eye is possibly the best in the system

I think that maybe his walks went down in AAA because he tried to hit for more power, or hit more period, so he started swinging more. I don’t think he’ll be a great hitter in the majors, but his batting eye makes him more than playable.

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Apr 26, 2010 2:14 PM EDT reply actions  

Agreed on his batting eye.

Watching him hit big league pitching is impressive. For a guy with as little experience at this level as he does his ability to control the strike zone is phenomenal.

by rglass44 on Apr 26, 2010 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

I've noticed he doesn't swing as many pitches outside

although he has swung at several high fastballs this weekend

pitch f/x confirms it

Fuzz

by RZ on Apr 26, 2010 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Cool.

It seems like he’s very good on the sides of the plate, but has strayed both above and below it a little so far.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Apr 26, 2010 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

If the Rays DFA Navi when Shoppach returns in late May/ June...

they would not be eating the full 2M. The number would be closer to 1.4M. Not a huge difference but a little easier to justify.

How can you have any pudding if you haven`t eaten your meat? I`m still waiting...

by Barnese and Bailey Circus on Apr 26, 2010 2:18 PM EDT reply actions  

Catchers also get hurt a lot

They may be able to firesale him somewhere for a fringy linor leaguer

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Apr 26, 2010 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

I love linor leaguers

As you can always expect come from behind victory is when you least expect it.

by Buc Wild on Apr 26, 2010 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think one of the truly notable things

Is that pitchers who pitched to him in Durham last year say that they like pitching to him much better this year because of his changed stance. I understand it’s not something that can really be quantified sabermetrically, and has become somewhat of a whipping boy because of occasional dumb quotes, but pitchers liking him is going to carry a large amount of weight with the FO and clubhouse.

by sstamour on Apr 26, 2010 2:19 PM EDT reply actions  

You mean Durham pitchers, yes?

RIP Andy Hellicksonstine. He died, like so many young men of his generation, he died before his time. In your wisdom, SBN, you took him, as you took so many bright flowering young men at the OTTOTD. These young men gave their lives. And so would Andy. Andy, who loved trannies.

by PlayOnWords on Apr 26, 2010 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sorry, I was typing too fast

I really meant in the last couple of years. Thinking Niemann, Price, Davis.

by sstamour on Apr 26, 2010 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Gotcha.

RIP Andy Hellicksonstine. He died, like so many young men of his generation, he died before his time. In your wisdom, SBN, you took him, as you took so many bright flowering young men at the OTTOTD. These young men gave their lives. And so would Andy. Andy, who loved trannies.

by PlayOnWords on Apr 26, 2010 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, that's got to count for something.

Jaso has worked with all three of those guys a lot in the recent past….certainly can’t hurt.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Apr 26, 2010 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm sure we could find someone to trade with and pick up his salary

This guy was an all-star 2 years ago. If he has about 1.5M left to be paid for the year I would think someone would be willing to take a flier on him for that.

by Sveet on Apr 26, 2010 2:25 PM EDT reply actions  

Trade him to Texas for a reliever!

www.draysbay.com, www.bloombergsports.mlblogs.com, Twitter @trancel

by Tommy Rancel on Apr 26, 2010 2:34 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

OT: PS EVERYONE!

They like us! They really like us!

RIP Andy Hellicksonstine. He died, like so many young men of his generation, he died before his time. In your wisdom, SBN, you took him, as you took so many bright flowering young men at the OTTOTD. These young men gave their lives. And so would Andy. Andy, who loved trannies.

by PlayOnWords on Apr 26, 2010 2:26 PM EDT reply actions  

lol
6. Padres | Record: 11-7 | Previous Week: 22
Bud Black has changed the culture of the Padres from slow and scared on the basepaths to quick and opportunistic. Exploiting unaware pitchers and sluggish defenders, the Padres ran their way to pivotal runs in recent sweeps of the rival Giants and Diamodbacks. The hitters, ecstatic to be out of Petco Park, then frolicked in Cincinnati, pushing the winning streak to eight games before Sunday’s loss to the Reds. These guys aren’t pushovers, despite the $38 million payroll. – Tom Krasovic

by rglass44 on Apr 26, 2010 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Also, lol @ this being the same thing just posted in the Heater.
Chances are, Jaso is still in the big leagues on a temporary basis. Shoppach could be back in June and, since Jaso has minor-league options remaining, the logical move would be to send him back down.

But that doesn’t mean it is a sure bet. Based on a very small sample of games, Jaso is potentially Tampa Bay’s best offensive catcher. And if his defense continues to improve, the Rays might consider some more creative options.

With just 20 plate appearances, Jaso has five walks, six RBIs and six hits. That’s more walks, more runs driven in and the same number of hits that Navarro has in 49 plate appearances.

Sign lady must die.

by EminenceFront on Apr 26, 2010 2:53 PM EDT reply actions  

This is preliminary stuff

But according to this rough projections, catcher framing alone can be worth more than an 18 run difference. Of course, I don’t remember Navarro being particularly good at that anyway.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/3/26/1360581/a-first-pass-at-a-catcher-framing

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Apr 26, 2010 3:01 PM EDT reply actions  

Not that I remember

But there’s been a lot of preliminary work in the area and not a ton of follow up. Just so many factors to deal with, including camera placement, reliability of the pitch data, etc.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Apr 26, 2010 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Jaso makes sense because he is stronger against right handers and therefore would work much better as a platoon partner than Navi does

Navi should be hitting many more lefties than he gets a chance too. If we are going to stick with Shoppach, particularly against lefties, (which we should) then Jaso is probably best going forward. I do think Navi is a decent bit better defensively than either Jaso or Shoppach, but if we can’t be sure then we can assume the scouting reports of improving defense are credible and the increase in offensive production is clear.

Its not that Navi can’t be productive, but its that he isn’t going to be productive in this situation. The Zaun/Navi platoon last year was his ideal situation, he just doesn’t matchup well as a platoon partner for Shoppach at all.

by Navi's_Navy on Apr 26, 2010 4:26 PM EDT reply actions  

Exactly

Lobaton makes more sense than Navi as well. If we weren’t going with a lefty, then we should have found a defensive specialist to play 40 or so games.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Apr 26, 2010 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

I've always loved Shoppach, but I was really upset when I saw the deal.

And even more upset when I saw we gave up Talbot. I really really loved what we had going on the second half of last year. Problem is, right now Navi isn’t going to generate any value in a trade, so do we let him play enough to try and get his BABIP up and his other stats up by proxy, or do we just cut our losses and go with Jaso or Lobaton (the only reason to go with Lobaton would be to give Jaso full time in AAA I’d think)?

by Navi's_Navy on Apr 28, 2010 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Was the Trop this weekend...

…Saturday and Sunday, and, while I’m not ready to jump on the bandwagon right now, I’m damn close. Jaso was impressive. I didn’t cringe as he came to bat, as i often do when Navi steps to the plate… I like Jaso. Can’t wait for Shoppach to return. Oh, and Price is the freakin man!!!!!!

I've always considered writing the most hateful kind of work ... I suspect its a bit like fucking, which is only fun for amateurs. -Hunter Thompson

by RockyRippleColtsFan on Apr 26, 2010 4:46 PM EDT reply actions  

His defense has looked good to me, blocking balls anyway

He even trusts himself and his pitcher enough to call for a pitch in the dirt. Now throwing wise….we haven’t seen much but I remember when I did see him throw, his arm seemed very weak. But Navarro is no Jose Molina either.

It has gotten to the point where Jaso has played some lefties and has still hit them well. We all know the AVG wont stay up but I think his incredible patience at the plate alone makes him more valuable than Navi and a Shoppach/Jaso platoon would be awesome.

Fire and Ice: Rafael Soriano and J.P Howell.......with their side kick Grant the aussie Balfour!

by joeybw on Apr 26, 2010 4:58 PM EDT reply actions  

Steve, what playing time estimations are you using?

Correct me if I’m wrong, but to go from wOBA (a rate stat) to runs, I believe you have to assume some amount of playing time, and you didn’t state what your assumption was in the article. I suppose I could work backwards and figure it out…

by ChiBurbRaysFan on Apr 26, 2010 5:30 PM EDT reply actions  

Good point.

I took the numbers straight from the FanGraphs pages for Jaso and Navarro – under their ZiPS in-season projections. Here were the AB projections for both players…

Jaso: 344 AB
Navarro: 391 AB

The difference in ABs is mostly a result of the playing time they’ve already accrued. The projection gives them similar number of ABs going forward.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Apr 26, 2010 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

What about how Jaso calls a game?

It is hard to tell from Left Field, but Saturday and Sunday’s games seemed to have a groove that wasn’t there on Friday. I know that this is most definitely an unmeasurable element, but nonetheless it can’t be ignored. Niehman and Price both looked comfortable on the mound and weren’t shaking off pitches. That trust has got to weigh-in somehow.

by AaronM on Apr 26, 2010 5:33 PM EDT reply actions  

I know we tried to look at this last year with Navarro vs. Hernandez,

and the results were too close to inconclusive. It’s hard to say, even based on pitches shaken off, whether a part time catcher is better calling a game or not. Some pitchers may tend to shake off more than others, and part time catchers really don’t get enough games to significantly compare differences.

I think, for now, game-calling is something about which only the pitchers and managers themselves can inform us.

from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum

by BWoodrum on Apr 26, 2010 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm on the Jaso bandwagon

Reasons.

1. He hits righties far better than Navi, and once Shoppach gets back that is the primary role of this portion of the platoon
.
.
.
.
.
10. Navi may have a better arm, but Navi is truly “lazy” behind the plate. He doesn’t block balls the way a catcher should. He stabs at them with his glove. Jaso actually moves his body and gets in front of balls in the dirt.

Go Gators!!

by matthan on Apr 26, 2010 6:36 PM EDT reply actions  

I know you can't measure it with sabermetrics

But he plays with so much energy and really seems to have tons of heart. I am 100% on the bandwagon.

by Frozenraysfan on Apr 26, 2010 7:27 PM EDT reply actions  

haha

I have a friend who says that if he ever gets rich he’s going to buy the Indians, change their name to the Steamers, and keep the same logo, but get rid of the feather and change the skin color.

by ChiBurbRaysFan on Apr 27, 2010 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Think of it this way

While we’re busy discussing the Rays 3 options at catcher, the Red Sox are stuck with one catcher who can catch (a little), but can’t hit… and one who can hit but can’t catch. Don’t be surprised of Jaso goes back to AAA just for that reason. There’s nothing wrong with hoarding catchers.

I have no doubt that the Rays will make the best move for them when the catchers are healthy.

RaysRev.com or m_weber on twitter

by Rays_Rev on Apr 27, 2010 9:25 AM EDT reply actions  

trade navi to the Red Sox

………………DONE

Lets go Bobcats. 2010 Playoffs!

by raysfan81 on Apr 27, 2010 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Jaso needs to stay up cut Navi

we could trade Navi for a six pack and so,e day old pizza

by Jaso fan club on Apr 27, 2010 12:42 PM EDT reply actions  

gameplan- let's try and win

so why protect your in vestments if one of your investments is a 2.1 million dollar pile of junk??? i say keep the best performing player when it comes time.

by johnjasofanclub on Apr 27, 2010 12:44 PM EDT reply actions  

THE REAL QUESTION IS THIS CAN HE KEEP IT UP "JASO"

john is not going to bat 700 this year but if his numbers r like navis ALLSTAR year batting

                                                                        .293 7 hr 52 rbi s
then john might make allstar team lets start the movement is he mvp this year or just an allstar navi gets million dollar contract to be the rays 4th string or maybe the g string catcher

by Jaso fan club on Apr 27, 2010 12:53 PM EDT reply actions  

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