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This And That: Run Efficiency, Velocity, Jaso Love, VOPB, and More

Sorry no one topic committed here or any pretty graphs. Just some thoughts and observations I had recently.

  • Don't see any reason why the Rays will send Jaso back down to Durham once Shoppach gets back. His regression won't be that bad compared to some other catcher on the team.
  • The addition of Joaquin Benoit brings another legitimate flame thrower in the pen as I'm sure he surprised many fans yesterday hitting 94-95 in his Ray debut. Grant Balfour's is up a little, hitting 93-94 recently. And James Shields who is underrated in velocity has had his best average in his career according to BIS data.
  • The Rays don't play the Twins until July. Would be cool if both teams are still on top.
  • Pat Burrell has zero runs above average (wRAA). That's right zippo. But he does have a WPA of .36.
  • Speaking of WPA, Ben Zobrist has the worst out of the Rays hitters with a -.66.
  • Scott Kazmir and Jason Hammel were two starters that were traded last season. Both have been on the DL this season. Hmm...

Star-divide

  • On Wednesday, the Rays as a team had a wOBA of around .340+. Above average, but surprisingly they were only in 7th or 8th place even though they had the most runs in the Majors. How did that happen? I quickly flipped over to Baseball Reference split pages and saw that they were ahead in OPS with runners on base by a good 50 points with about a .930. They are driving them in when they get on as we see with those numerous multi-run innings. The split has even out a little since Wednesday with the D-Backs not to far behind and the Rays now sporting a .355 wOBA for fourth best. Numbers for hitting with men on is a split that I expect to regress greatly over the next month or two from the .900 OPS range to maybe around .800 (the Yankees had a .822 OPS last season, Rays .796). The Rays will hit well overall but I can't see them keeping up the offensive blowouts all season long. It might start dwindle down come the west coast road trip next week.
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    Its a little sad that people are excited with Pat Burrell being average.

    The good news is, if this is a “slow start” then we will see above average production later on. If its a “fast start”, well, shit…

    by kurby on Apr 30, 2010 1:08 PM EDT reply actions  

    Considering that most saw him as sunk cost before the season

    Any production is welcomed.

    www.draysbay.com, www.bloombergsports.mlblogs.com, Twitter @trancel

    by Tommy Rancel on Apr 30, 2010 1:38 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

    Burrell's always been a notoriously slow starter, IIRC

    Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
    "Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

    by Brickhaus on Apr 30, 2010 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

    No kidding

    It took him 162 games to get going last year.

    by IntrepidX on Apr 30, 2010 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

    Isn't that a little harsh?

    He had a better 2nd half if the season, if memory serves?

    by tampa_edski on Apr 30, 2010 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

    Memory Fail

    1st Half OBP/SLG: .341/.347
    2nd Half OBP/SLG: .292/.3983

    Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

    by FreeZorilla on Apr 30, 2010 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

    It seems to me that we're doing a lot of our damage in one inning per game

    I haven’t looked over all the box scores, but over the past week or so, it seems like our wins come from one dominating inning each game.

    by Elasticman on Apr 30, 2010 2:02 PM EDT reply actions  

    Remember how horrible Longoria was from June-August last year?

    I hate when people start panicking after a slow start for certain players. Lets just spread the love guys. Zorilla needs our support.

    by Cornish on Apr 30, 2010 2:50 PM EDT reply actions  

    Good point, certainly possible.

    He started off great last year though.

    by kurby on Apr 30, 2010 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

    Yeah but he wasn't a starter nor in the three hole.

    I don’t think he is comfortable batting there. He played poorly from there last year as well.

    by Cornish on Apr 30, 2010 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

    intersting point.

    I think BOSSMAN needs to be in the 3

    by daveh33 on Apr 30, 2010 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

    Though, I'm wondering-

    if Longo or Los is the better cleanup guy?

    I don't have a Sig!

    by 4QB on Apr 30, 2010 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

    Move it back to something like last year

    JB
    CC
    Longo
    Carlos
    Zobrist
    Upton
    PTB
    Jaso
    Brignac

    Take some pressure off of Zobrist, or move him back to 4 atleast.
    Upton back to lead off? I dont like the idea but it could happen.

    Everything was beautiful and nothing hurt.

    by Warde on Apr 30, 2010 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

    IMHO the worry from Zobrist stems from his lack of history

    It is really one thing for an established guy with a track record to start slow. It is one thing for an uber prospect to start slow. Zobrist was ‘okay’ at the start of his career, had one single monster year, and now he is playing ‘okay’ again.

    The worry was that the monster year was the fluke. I don’t agree with that sentiment, but I understand it. Zobrist doesn’t have the pedigree yet to just shrug off slow starts. He still has things to prove before he can be given that type of benefit of the doubt.

    My thought process is more along the lines of pitchers got the book on him. Throw him junk. Last year (if I recall correctly) then threw him fastballs early and he dominated, they threw him junk and he struggled a bit, then they went back to the heat and he finished strong. This year they are going with the junk. He needs to adapt a bit himself. Of course I can be totally wrong.

    Go Gators!!

    by matthan on Apr 30, 2010 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

    Even when he got pitched with the off speed pitches last year he kne when to swing & to not

    That’s not happening this year, he just needs to get his plate discipline back and probably half his issues are solved

    PIZZA?!?

    by Transplanted on Apr 30, 2010 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

    I was going to do a post based on pitch usage and the count vs Zobrist but samples are too small

    They are definitely throwing him junk when you would expect it less, like full counts

    Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

    by FreeZorilla on Apr 30, 2010 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

    I've seen a lot of 3-0 3-1 fastballs as well

    Ben is taking nearly all of them. It just seems like in certain counts he just decides not to swing to make the pitcher work, but then when he actually has the mindset of swinging he will chase.

    I wouldn’t be opposed to him swinging in more of those 3-0 counts if he gets a fastball. It just seems far too often he allows a fastball to go by to make it 3-1, 3-2. And the impression I get is he had zero intention at all to swing (which I don’t think is a bad thing BTW). The problem then is he ends up in a rough situation and nearly always chases a bad pitch on 3-2.

    Of course this could just be selective memory.

    Go Gators!!

    by matthan on Apr 30, 2010 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

    Basically what I'm saying is...

    If he really is a fastball hitter and weak on the junk then he should go up to the plate with the mindset of looking for a fastball and pounding it when he gets it while also not swinging at the junk.

    Go Gators!!

    by matthan on Apr 30, 2010 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

    He needs to stop chasing pitches

    His O-Swing% jumped way up so far this year from 19.3% to 28.3%, he’s making less contact outside the zone & has a higher SwSt% and his /C numbers are all down heavily on CB & CH mostly

    PIZZA?!?

    by Transplanted on Apr 30, 2010 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

    He adapted last year to the junk and ended up on this positive side of most if not all pitch types

    But you are right about when he is way ahead. I could see pitch recognition taking a bit of time to get going during the season, particularly for a switch hitter. Last year when he was less respected he saw tons of fastballs early in the year so it wasn’t an issue.

    Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

    by FreeZorilla on Apr 30, 2010 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

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