This And That: Run Efficiency, Velocity, Jaso Love, VOPB, and More
Sorry no one topic committed here or any pretty graphs. Just some thoughts and observations I had recently.
- Don't see any reason why the Rays will send Jaso back down to Durham once Shoppach gets back. His regression won't be that bad compared to some other catcher on the team.
- The addition of Joaquin Benoit brings another legitimate flame thrower in the pen as I'm sure he surprised many fans yesterday hitting 94-95 in his Ray debut. Grant Balfour's is up a little, hitting 93-94 recently. And James Shields who is underrated in velocity has had his best average in his career according to BIS data.
- The Rays don't play the Twins until July. Would be cool if both teams are still on top.
- Pat Burrell has zero runs above average (wRAA). That's right zippo. But he does have a WPA of .36.
- Speaking of WPA, Ben Zobrist has the worst out of the Rays hitters with a -.66.
- Scott Kazmir and Jason Hammel were two starters that were traded last season. Both have been on the DL this season. Hmm...
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Its a little sad that people are excited with Pat Burrell being average.
The good news is, if this is a “slow start” then we will see above average production later on. If its a “fast start”, well, shit…
Considering that most saw him as sunk cost before the season
Any production is welcomed.
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by Tommy Rancel on Apr 30, 2010 1:38 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
His production vs RHP is very nice if a little inflated
His production vs LHP is puzzling
PIZZA?!?
by Transplanted on Apr 30, 2010 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Burrell's always been a notoriously slow starter, IIRC
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1st Half OBP/SLG: .341/.347
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It seems to me that we're doing a lot of our damage in one inning per game
I haven’t looked over all the box scores, but over the past week or so, it seems like our wins come from one dominating inning each game.
That because when we have our runners on, we put our foot on their throat and don't let up
And we’ll see an uptick in HRs eventually which may balance out the reduced BA with RISP
PIZZA?!?
by Transplanted on Apr 30, 2010 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
And we’ll see an uptick in HRs eventually which may balance out the reduced BA with RISP
My thoughts as well.
Especially from Zobrist & a bit from Longoria
0 & 4 through the first 22 games is below the normal expected rate
PIZZA?!?
by Transplanted on Apr 30, 2010 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Remember how horrible Longoria was from June-August last year?
I hate when people start panicking after a slow start for certain players. Lets just spread the love guys. Zorilla needs our support.
I wonder if Zobrist's slow start is due to him being a Switch Hitter
Switch Hitters are notoriously poor starters
PIZZA?!?
by Transplanted on Apr 30, 2010 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah but he wasn't a starter nor in the three hole.
I don’t think he is comfortable batting there. He played poorly from there last year as well.
Maybe just slide everyone up 1 slot & drop Zobrist to the 6/7 spot?
PIZZA?!?
by Transplanted on Apr 30, 2010 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Move it back to something like last year
JB
CC
Longo
Carlos
Zobrist
Upton
PTB
Jaso
Brignac
Take some pressure off of Zobrist, or move him back to 4 atleast.
Upton back to lead off? I dont like the idea but it could happen.
Everything was beautiful and nothing hurt.
Jaso should bat leadoff, considering he walks like 100 times a game
I kid of course, but every joke has some truth.
Go Gators!!
IMHO the worry from Zobrist stems from his lack of history
It is really one thing for an established guy with a track record to start slow. It is one thing for an uber prospect to start slow. Zobrist was ‘okay’ at the start of his career, had one single monster year, and now he is playing ‘okay’ again.
The worry was that the monster year was the fluke. I don’t agree with that sentiment, but I understand it. Zobrist doesn’t have the pedigree yet to just shrug off slow starts. He still has things to prove before he can be given that type of benefit of the doubt.
My thought process is more along the lines of pitchers got the book on him. Throw him junk. Last year (if I recall correctly) then threw him fastballs early and he dominated, they threw him junk and he struggled a bit, then they went back to the heat and he finished strong. This year they are going with the junk. He needs to adapt a bit himself. Of course I can be totally wrong.
Go Gators!!
Even when he got pitched with the off speed pitches last year he kne when to swing & to not
That’s not happening this year, he just needs to get his plate discipline back and probably half his issues are solved
PIZZA?!?
by Transplanted on Apr 30, 2010 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I was going to do a post based on pitch usage and the count vs Zobrist but samples are too small
They are definitely throwing him junk when you would expect it less, like full counts
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I've seen a lot of 3-0 3-1 fastballs as well
Ben is taking nearly all of them. It just seems like in certain counts he just decides not to swing to make the pitcher work, but then when he actually has the mindset of swinging he will chase.
I wouldn’t be opposed to him swinging in more of those 3-0 counts if he gets a fastball. It just seems far too often he allows a fastball to go by to make it 3-1, 3-2. And the impression I get is he had zero intention at all to swing (which I don’t think is a bad thing BTW). The problem then is he ends up in a rough situation and nearly always chases a bad pitch on 3-2.
Of course this could just be selective memory.
Go Gators!!
Basically what I'm saying is...
If he really is a fastball hitter and weak on the junk then he should go up to the plate with the mindset of looking for a fastball and pounding it when he gets it while also not swinging at the junk.
Go Gators!!
He needs to stop chasing pitches
His O-Swing% jumped way up so far this year from 19.3% to 28.3%, he’s making less contact outside the zone & has a higher SwSt% and his /C numbers are all down heavily on CB & CH mostly
PIZZA?!?
by Transplanted on Apr 30, 2010 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
He adapted last year to the junk and ended up on this positive side of most if not all pitch types
But you are right about when he is way ahead. I could see pitch recognition taking a bit of time to get going during the season, particularly for a switch hitter. Last year when he was less respected he saw tons of fastballs early in the year so it wasn’t an issue.
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