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I've been guessing that Pena does not have the skills necessary to beat the shift as a hitter.
My unpopular theory is that he bunts against the shift repeatedly in an attempt to get them to play him honest, or swing into it anyway instead of doing what he’s doing now, which is to constantly try to beat the shift by going the other way. It’s not working, and it never consistently has.
When John Jaso strikes out twice in a game, he becomes Kohn Kaso, which is Spanish for "with cheese."
Teams are willing to give him the free base for only as long as he's not willing to take it. I don't see why there are some people who don't understand how this works.
When John Jaso strikes out twice in a game, he becomes Kohn Kaso, which is Spanish for "with cheese."
It's not 100% foolproof
But it seems a worthwhile risk. Teams aren’t willing to intentionally walk him all the time, why woudl they give him a 75% chance at a successful bunt (note: this is an estimate) It seems it would loosen up the shift if it becomes a real threat. Lord knows he hits plenty of hard grounders, some could get through.
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75% is matthan high
Not a joke, he cited 75-80%. I said closer to 40% and I still think that’s a ridiculous success rate.
When John Jaso strikes out twice in a game, he becomes Kohn Kaso, which is Spanish for "with cheese."
75% if laid down fair
If foul, its a strike not an out. Then there’s the risk of a pop up or back to the pitcher. For a RHP who is falling to the 1st base side, its a very difficult play.
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If he's getting a .750BA on bunts against RHP and he's bunting twice a game, that would be incredible.
Either way, even if you pretend my more conservative number would be correct, we both agree that he should bunt against the shift.
When John Jaso strikes out twice in a game, he becomes Kohn Kaso, which is Spanish for "with cheese."
The only way he's consistently beaten the shift
Is to hit the ball out of the park. Lately, if he hits anything to left, it is accidental rather than intentional. I could probably count his number of line drives to the opposite field on both hands; I might only need one.
Really interesting/depressing read Jason, I just have one question
What happened to the other 2/3s of his homers?
In that month, he hit 12 homers, had a 1.047 OPS, and hit one-third of his homers out of the park.
Hey, Surly only looks out for one guy...Surly!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Jun 1, 2010 1:18 PM EDT reply actions
For comparison's sake
Burrell had a .276 BABIP in his career here. Could the shift really have a .060 effect on Pena’s BABIP? Scary
I did some internal work on the most shifted hitters last year
I can’t find my work, but there wasn’t much correlation. Of course, Pena is hitting a ton of ground balls right into the teeth, so that will take effect.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
He should almost always attempt to bunt until he's going good or there's an RBI op out there
Or work on going to LCF like he did in the HR Derby
PIZZA?!?
Speaking of HR derby, his numbers haven't been the same since
:conspiracytheory:
by Jason Collette on Jun 1, 2010 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions
That's exactly the opposite I think he should be doing. That's what he's been trying to do and it doesn't work. He needs to stop doing it and go back to what he does naturally when he swings, and bunt against the shift.
T
When John Jaso strikes out twice in a game, he becomes Kohn Kaso, which is Spanish for "with cheese."
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