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The Tampa Bay Rays 2010 MLB Trade Deadline Handbook

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[Note by Tommy Rancel, 06/21/10 8:00 AM EDT ] This is the first article in a series of posts prepared by Steve Slowinski, who is currently away on leave.

 

The DRB Handbook for the 2010 Trade Deadline

I dislike the word "Guide." Or more to the point, I dislike how often it's used: draft guide, fantasy guide, season guide, World Cup guide, TV guide, travel guide, writing guide, hitchhikers' guide. Guide guide guide guide guide.* And so, DRaysBay isn't going to have a trade deadline guide; we're going to have a handbook. Original, I know.

*It's also one of those words that looks really odd the longer you stare at it.

Now that the end of June is starting us in the face, the trade deadline is fast approaching and rumors are going to begin flying every which way. The Yankees are interested in Cliff Lee? No, they're not. Yes, they are. Boston's in on the action? No, yes, no, maybe, yes. It can be tough keeping up with the rumors, let alone deciphering which rumors have actual substance to them.

Enter stage right, the DRB Handbook. Over the next couple of days, we'll be bringing you a handful of articles that address what the Rays need, their potential trade chips, who they should be looking at, and who they shouldn't be looking at. The more you know going into the trading season, the better you'll be able to determine if rumors you're hearing are legit or inane babble written by journalists needing a story. And since the Rays normally play their cards close to the chest, it may be that you won't hear many rumors floating around about the Rays. Does this mean they aren't being active, calling teams and trying to put deals together? Not at all - it just means that our front office values information and privacy. Trust that they're working hard to get the right players; they just don't want us knowing everything they're doing.

And so, since we will probably have little idea who the Rays are pursuing until they've acquired them, what sort of players should the Rays been looking at? Where are the current holes and needs in the current team? In no particular order:

Star-divide

-         DH Bat - This has been covered ad nauseam on the site, but the Rays have gotten pitiful production from their DH position this season. Pat Burrell was awful and Hank Blalock hasn't done much better, while Willy Aybar and John Jaso haven't produced spectacularly while filling in on occasion. The Rays do have one of the best offenses in the majors - currently tied for fifth with the Tigers - but they still pale in comparison with the Yankees and Red Sox (.810 team OPS versus .760 OPS). The Rays could use someone that is cheap and underrated, but they could also make a run at some of the big guns available. Ideally, they wouldn't trade for an outfielder or middle infielder, as they currently have lots of depth at those positions, and they don't need someone signed to a long-term deal. In other words, they want short-term offensive help that won't cost an arm and a leg and won't block the way for the Rays' young players.

-         Ace Starter - Ignore those middle-of-the-rotation crap pitchers on the market. Rays have starting pitching depth out the wazoo, and the only thing they lack is a knock-down ace. James Shields is an excellent pitcher and is underrated by the media, but the Rays are lacking a 6 WAR pitcher at the front of the rotation. Since the Rays' pitchers have been struggling recently, if the Rays want to upgrade their rotation, they have two main options: replace Wade Davis with Jeremy Hellickson, or trade for an ace starter to replace Davis in the rotation. (Really, it's nothing personal about Davis - he's been a serviceable fifth starter and has lots of upside - but his is the easiest spot to upgrade.) Considering the overall strength of the Rays' rotation, this isn't a drastic need, but at the right price it'd be a way to improve the rotation dramatically. This ace starter shouldn't already be signed to a long-term deal, as it would cost a lot of money and would block the Rays' minor league pitching depth.

-         Relief Depth - You can never have too much bullpen depth. The Rays' relievers have been very good so far this season, but if someone gets injured or begins to stink, who's the next to step in? Winston Abreu? Dale Thayer? The Rays could look to add another arm to the pen, especially if they can find an effective lefty reliever that's good against both hands. Again, this reliever shouldn't be too expensive, but the Rays have bullpen slots opening after this season and so a player signed to a long-term deal would not be a problem.

And so, that's where the Rays currently stand. Next up, we'll take a look at players on the trading block that the Rays should pass on.

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I'd trade Matt Moore or Barnese or any of the non-Hellickson pitching "prospects." The attrition rate is so high and Davis

is already past the scariest part and has proven that he’s durable. The same can’t be said for the others who could go from spect to out of the game at anytime.

And if one has a problem using stats to prove a point, then use your eyes.

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 21, 2010 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

I have a crush on Matt Moore, I couldn't part with him.

:(

Maddon's Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.

by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT

by Doug09 on Jun 21, 2010 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Lee?

Why do y’all think we could really get Lee for Wade Davis? Lee’s been traded twice in the last year, and (if I remember correctly) for 3 different prospects each time. Sure, if you would have traded for him in the past, you’d have him longer – but I don’t think that really matters much as we near this deadline. Especially as draft picks value has increased.

Lee for Davis – great. Lee for Moore – great. But, I don’t think either gets it done by himself. Lee is filthy, and going to be the top player available in July, he’s not going to come cheap.

by TallMatt on Jun 21, 2010 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Davis is better than any prospect that Lee was traded for in the past. IMO.

Therefore, I should be ignored completely, because I’m a blithering idiot.

When John Jaso strikes out twice in a game, he becomes Kohn Kaso, which is Spanish for "with cheese."

by kericr on Jun 1, 2010 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Jun 21, 2010 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

We have excess SP

Either trade a young gun for Cliff Lee soon or trade a vet for some prospects (1B?, Catcher?) in the offseason. I’m neutral, but if I had to choose I’d go for the gold.

Go Gators!!

by matthan on Jun 21, 2010 5:10 PM EDT reply actions  

Point is that something needs to be done

Our starters (in the majors and in the minors) all have tremendous trade value across the league, but they all have less value to the Rays org because of the depth we have. We shouldn’t get ripped off in a trade, but we should accept a little less than true ‘value’ because of that depth.

Go Gators!!

by matthan on Jun 21, 2010 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Justin Smoak should be the Rays top target in the off-season

trading either Davis or Garza for Smoak/Cruz/Hamilton makes a lot of sense. I still think Prince Fielder for Davis would be a good trade.

by raysfaninminnesota on Jun 21, 2010 5:12 PM EDT reply actions  

I think Chris Davis could have had for much cheaper

Offensively we have his clone already in Pena.

Go Gators!!

by matthan on Jun 21, 2010 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

And why would the Rangers trade him?

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Jun 21, 2010 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe they want a front of the rotation guy who is a lock to go deep into games and give you 200+ innings?

(really don’t think they trade him though)

Hamilton is an interesting name though.

Therefore, I should be ignored completely, because I’m a blithering idiot.

When John Jaso strikes out twice in a game, he becomes Kohn Kaso, which is Spanish for "with cheese."

by kericr on Jun 1, 2010 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Jun 21, 2010 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is an awful statement. The Rangers aren't giving up Smoak or Cruz.

And this team doesn’t want Hamilton.

I hope you understand how provocative and irritating a statement such as "baseball is played on the field not on paper" is. It is the kind of moronic critique that anti-sabermetric neanderthals use (along with the unfunny "mother’s basement" canard) to debunk what they do not understand.

by kericr on Jun 22, 2010 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

Agree on Burrell

but disagree on Blalock, Hank hasn’t had a chance to get any consistent AB’s…kind of hard to produce when you play every 4th day.

by Blue or CONKZILLA on Jun 21, 2010 8:55 PM EDT reply actions  

What would be the point...

…of trading away davis, or in fact, trading for another SP when Hellickson is waiting in AAA. Suppose ‘this is the season’ but still…

by OneTonneBaby on Jun 22, 2010 4:04 AM EDT reply actions  

Lee is a free agent at the end of this season.

And he’s almost certainly going to obtain type-A status.

So letting him walk would net us a first rd pick (and a supplemental pick, if I’m not mistaken) while clearing a spot in the rotation for Hellickson.

I got an Irish name and an injury; blessing and a curse cast down on me.

by Vin on Jun 22, 2010 7:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

if the Mariners try to blow it up this deadline

I wonder what the chances are Felix is on the market, there was some talk last year. I’d give up more for him than Lee. Would you do a deal involving say Davis + Niemann for Hernandez. Would Hernandez/Hellickson be enough of an improvement to warrant the trade.

by Dbullsfan on Jun 22, 2010 4:28 AM EDT reply actions  

If they trade Felix it won't be until after the 2011 season

when his salary goes from 10mil to 18mil.

On the same token, the Rays won’t risk being stuck with 60 million dollars over the last three years of that extension he signed if he got hurt or tanked. So, regardless of his availability, Felix shouldn’t be an option.

I got an Irish name and an injury; blessing and a curse cast down on me.

by Vin on Jun 22, 2010 7:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

Going after Lee is probably the better choice; he's got half a year left, could be had for a couple of good prospects, and as I've continued to try to emphasize repeatedly

This team probably isn’t winning a pennant next year. They’re going to let everyone walk, cut payroll for a year or so and rebuild while fielding a .500 team.

I hope you understand how provocative and irritating a statement such as "baseball is played on the field not on paper" is. It is the kind of moronic critique that anti-sabermetric neanderthals use (along with the unfunny "mother’s basement" canard) to debunk what they do not understand.

by kericr on Jun 22, 2010 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

what it would take to get lance berkman or carlos lee?

i wonder how much of their contracts the astros would be willing to take on. we’d probably be better off going after luke scott but lee and berkman are intriguing possibilities.

by gerhardt on Jun 22, 2010 12:10 PM EDT reply actions  

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