Series Preview: San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays

6/22 7:10 PM Mat Latos v. Wade Davis (Sun Sports/WDAE 620)

6/23 7:10 PM Kevin Correia v. James Shields (Sun Sports/WDAE 620)

6/24: 12:10 PM Wade LeBlanc v. Matt Garza (Sun Sports/WDAE 620)

(Note: All numbers are 2010 only, except the v. LH/RH xFIP)

Mat Latos

Throws SwStr% GB% Strike% xFIP v. LH v. RH
Right 9.5 45.6 63.4 3.71 4.43 3.78

Pitch Usage Velocity Whiff%
4Seam 37.1 93.7 6.9
2Seam 25.5 92.7 5.5
Slider 22.9 84.2 18.7
Change 14.5 84.8 10.8

Usage Breakdown
Ball Strike Fastball Breaking Offspeed
0 0 63 27 11
1 0 62 21 16
2 0 79 10 11
3 0 100 0 0
0 1 54 36 11
1 1 54 23 23
2 1 59 24 16
3 1 85 8 7
0 2 60 39 1
1 2 56 37 7
2 2 65 24 11
3 2 78 12 10


Latos is a six-foot-six righty who relies heavily on his fastballs. He'll throw it in any count, and uses it to set up his breaking pitches in two strike counts. The good news is that lefties can get to him and theoretically loading the lineup with lefties should neutralize his slider. The reality is it doesn't. Or at least it doesn't stop Latos from throwing it more often to lefties than his change-up.

Throws SwStr% GB% Strike% xFIP
Right 7.7 47.5 60.6 4.07

Correia throws a variety of pitches including a few variations of fastballs, a change-up, and  curve. He gets a surprising number of whiffs given his mediocre velocity from the right side. Throughout his career he's been pretty sub-par against lefties, and better than average against righties. Once he gets two strikes he does a nice job mixing up just which pitch to end the affair with.

Throws SwStr% GB% Strike% xFIP
Left 7.1 38.7 60.6 4.65


LeBlanc meanwhile is the sole lefty of the trio. He's a scrapballing lefty, which generally spells issues for the Rays. Nobody misses his fastball, but a lot of bats swing through his change-up.

The Padres lineup is nothing special. They're basically the National League Mariners as they rely heavily on their ability to catch the ball. Yes, Adrian Gonzalez. Otherwise, there aren't reasons for San Diego to put up more than 2-3 runs a game against the Rays' pitchers. Of course this is baseball and anything is possible. Fully expect San Diego to outscore the Rays by 22 over these three games.

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