On Reid Brignac's O-Swing%
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 23, 2010 10:57 AM EDT
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PrintHypothesis: Reid Brignac's high O-Swing% will eventually catch up to him and hurt his offensive production.
Reality: Not really, his approach is just painful at times to watch.
Here's what I mean. I took each batter with at least 300 plate appearances in the 2009 season and ran regression analysis on their walk and strikeout rates as well as their wOBA against their O-Swing%, which simply measures the percentage of pitches outside of the strike zone a batter offers at. What the results suggest is that while it has a definite relationship with walking, it doesn't impact wOBA or strikeouts quite as much as you would think.
wOBA and O-Swing%
BB% and O-Swing%
SO% and O-Swing%
Think of it in terms of Carl Crawford. Once a player reaches the majors with a certain plate approach, he's unlikely to alter it too drastically. In some cases, that's a good thing. In others, it'll result in some head-scratching when a player follows multiple curves down and out of the zone. If a player can get to the majors with a hacktastic skill set, then odds are, he can make it work; assuming he's good at making contact or hitting for power and not just some roster filler.
For some additional perspective on Brignac, consider this. His O-Swing% divided by the League Average O-Swing% yields a return of 1.37; or he's swinging at about 37% more pitches out of the zone than average. As a 20-year-old, Crawford swung at 88% more than league average. As a 25-year-old (Brignac's age) he swung at 21% more. He went after more than 30% of league average in each of his first five seasons before settling the 20-25% range. He struggled mightily in those first two seasons - as 20-21-year-olds in the majors are wont to do -- but after which was an above average hitter annually.
That's not to say Brignac is Crawford Junior. And it's certainly not to say that Brignac will sustain a high BABIP, but I'm not sure the O-Swing factor is as big of an issue as it would appear.
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Extremely small r^2 for the first and 3rd
Any relationship between o-swing and o-contact?
And if one has a problem using stats to prove a point, then use your eyes.
Also, it's been a while, but I would think a log-log regression would work best here since you are dealing with percentages.
And if one has a problem using stats to prove a point, then use your eyes.
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 23, 2010 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions
I didn't keep the data handy honestly.
I assume there is some, otherwise baseball players are just stupid.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 23, 2010 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
I read Appelman's piece where they are goign to add O-Swing% above/below lg avg
B/c of annual changes to what is deemed an Oout of Zone pitch. I think he referenced that lg average is +3% from 2009. I’m curious as to the relationship for the players who are free swingers between their wOBA and O-Swing/lg average between seasons. In other words do those players have higher wOBAs when they are at their most discliplined?
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I just posted this in another thread, but thought it might have some value here
This is only 3-2 counts, but I hope the readership finds it interesting.
And if one has a problem using stats to prove a point, then use your eyes.
A strike is thrown close to 60% of the time in a 3-2 count.
I would imagine a strike is offered less to Brignac.
Brignac is our best SS defensively and offensively
why he doesn’t play everyday, especially against righties confuses me.
If you have two players who play the same position.
One hits lefties, one hits righties, they both suck at the same hand, then you take the lefty. More RHSP than LHSP.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 23, 2010 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Bartlett projects about the same as Brignac vs RHP
.321 according to Marcels
.333 if you estimate platoon skill
http://www.draysbay.com/2010/4/15/1419181/evaluating-jason-bartletts-2009
Thats about my expectation of Brigs vs RHP.
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"but I'm not sure the O-Swing factor is as big of an issue as it would appear."
I tend to believe it could be a big a issue. Your reasoning is based on the fact that an average or above average wOBA can still be maintained given a high O-Swing, but I believe there is more to it then a simple correlation study. My main concern is: What type of hitter maintains a high wOBA given a high O-Swing%?
If O-Swing% negatively impacts OBP then the hitter must maintain an extremely high batting average or supply above average power. While the correlation between O-Swing and wOBA suggests only a slightly negative correlation, perhaps the high power hitters swing the correlation more towards even(Fielder and Howard types). Since Brignac is not an above average power hitter, can he maintain the high wOBA without the walks? Brignac is currently supporting an Ichiro-like Contact% this year. Can he maintain this? I don’t necessarily think so. If you look at his previous years, his contact percentage out of zone was much lower. I expect more strikeouts and a slight regression in BABIP. Even with his current contact rates his wOBA is merely league average so any reduction means a below average hitter. Obviously playing great defense at a premium position still gives him great value. However, I don’t believe we can expect Brignac to be an above average hitter moving forward, at least not with his current approach.
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