In Defense of B.J. Upton (2010 Remix)

And that is using a wOBA .003 above league average to draw the conclusion he’s an above average hitter this year.

It’s a bit of a stretch to say that average is defined by the small handful of guys at exactly the league average. “Average” in this verbal context probably has a slightly larger range attached – say the middle quintile of players – in which I’d suggest it’s likely BJ firmly resides.

But that’s semantics.

The main fact I’d take issue with is that SB’s are component of wOBA, and BJ is exceptional in this regard. I’d wager that without this component part of the stat – which has nothing at all to do with hitting – he’d very possibly be a below average hitter from the pure mathematical standpoint.

But again, that’s semantics. What you could more correctly have claimed is that BJ is numerically above average as an offensive player. Barely. And largely due to his basestealing.

Plus I want to emphasize the seasonality of this – on a career basis the facts stand more firmly behind your argument.

Unfortunately it is obvious when BJ does not “feel” like playing. When motivated he is a great player but at least 30% of the time he seems like he is working rather than having fun.

There’s BJ’s apparent talent vs. BJ’s batting production, and there’s BJ’s apparent attitude/lack of hustle/laziness/call it whatever you want.

Here at DRB we supposedly believe that process is more important than simple results, and that if the process is sound the results should follow. And as RJ’s stats demonstrate, there’s not much inherently wrong with BJ’s process. The results aren’t following so far this year, and they didn’t follow last year either. (At a certain point results failing to follow process should make one question the premise that the process is more important, but that’s a bigger point than I’m interested in tackling right now.)

BJ’s attitude/whatever is galling to some, annoying to others, an unforgivable sin to yet others, and no big deal to some. I believe it plays a very small part in why his results have not consistently followed his process. At some level, hustle creates better results – when a fielder bobbles, or rushes, or on bang-bang infield hits, for example. BJ records outs on those plays when, if he hustled, he might record some hits. So that drags down his results. But to what extent? Is it statistically significant? Or just anecdotally signficant, because it annoys so many fans when the extreme examples occur?

I am not a BJ fan. I loathe players who fail to hustle, even while I recognize the limited overall importance of hustle. It remains the one factor over which a player has 100% control, and I cannot forgive players who give less than all-out effort on more than just isolated occurrences. But at the same time, I do not believe that getting rid of BJ would improve the Rays. I do not believe that Desmond Jennings is ready to be an adequate replacement. In short, BJ is not the problem. He’s just part of a team-wide slump and he’s joined the unfortunate team-wide streak of awful luck/bad approach/I don’t know what with RISP over the past month or so.

To me, Sunday sucked, it should never have happened, I’m glad Longo got in BJ’s face, but in the end it’s Much Ado About Nothing. A lot of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

I’m in favor of just staying the course and waiting for the Rays’ luck to even out. They were absurdly lucky in April, mixed in May, and absurdly unlucky in June. Sooner or later they should have a month with simply average luck. And when they do, they’ll win more than they lose because through it all the Rays are a more talented team than the overwhelming majority of their opponents.

‘worst thing BJ did was have a 387 wOBA in ’07, thus setting the bar too high’

And i’ll add, a bar he’ll never sniff again

I think it is reasonable as a fan to expect hustle. Players can control it and they should so it. However we should understand that is literally impossible for a human to give 100% effort all the time. Every player takes a play off. Navi was horrible at moving his body to block balls, Evan didn’t run to 1st after a K to potentially end the game, Pena didn’t chase a ball, and we can go on and on.

A player should always try to give 100% but fans should be reasonable. As long as it isn’t chronic it isn’t a problem. Once or twice a year isn’t chronic.

My feeling is that a certain talk radio has bashed BJ so much over the past few years and now it is engrained into the public mind. We ignore others loafing and focus on BJ. We question BJ when he Ks looking and ignore others.

BJ isn’t a great player, heck he is just okay, but it’s not a work ethic problem. It’s not a hustle problem. It’s a talent problem.

Because I can’t understand, by watching every game like I have, how Upton has “been an above average hitter” this season.

This is not an indictment on your fine article. I’m just saying I don’t get it

.328 wOBA vs .325 league average at 300 plate appearances (roughly Upton’s year-to-date) equates to less than 1 run generated by Upton above the league average hitter. That’s it. While normally a fine fielder, he has been at best average over the past year. League average salary is $3.3 million, which is roughly Upton’s. You’re talking about a LEAGUE AVERAGE PLAYER. Maybe he has great potential. maybe he doesn’t. He is AVERAGE. I’m sure the league average player also had a really nice two or three week stretch back several years ago as well….