Should the Rays Re-Sign Carlos Pena? Recent History Says No
by Tommy Rancel on Jun 4, 2010 6:00 AM EDT
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PrintCarlos Pena is one of the most beloved Rays players - both on this site and in general. There is a large majority that would love to see Carlos Pena, the man, retire as a Ray and remain in the organization long after. However, what we want may not be best for the team. Instead of going into 1,000 words on the risks of signing an aging slugger with old man skills (walks, strikeouts, home runs), I'll let the visuals do the talking...
Okay, just because it happened to Pat Burrell doesn't mean it will happen to Carlos Pena. Also, Pena still has another 350-400 plate appearances to improve on his age 32 totals. That said, anything more than a one-year deal with a sweet home town discount is probably too much for the best slugger in this franchise's history. I don't know about you, but my :)% just went way down.
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Steve Sommer calculated that Pena's next five seasons will look something like...
3 WAR
2.5 WAR
1.9 WAR
1.4 WAR
.9 WAR
The Rays can mostly like do better for cheaper.
Leslie Anderson is already in-house, but he can also play the outfield.
The market for sluggers has crashed recently. If Carlos is willing to sign a one-year deal for about half of what he’s making now that’s fine. However, I’m sure he’s looking for a multi-year deal since this is his last real chance at getting one.
I still think Matt Sweeney is the guy in 2011 -assuming he isn’t traded before then – so there is no need to sign long-term at first base.
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by Tommy Rancel on Jun 4, 2010 8:24 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Not 2011, 2012
www.draysbay.com, www.bloombergsports.mlblogs.com, Twitter @trancel
by Tommy Rancel on Jun 4, 2010 8:42 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I have a hard time believing that Sweeney will be the man in 2012.
I see a lot of Wes Bankston in him, except Bankston put up better numbers at a younger age.
Tools Whore
Agreed
Plus I think the FO is one step ahead already grooming/finding a cheaper replacement. I wouldn’t be surprised if they are figuring out how to sign CC while letting go/not resigning the guys that are on the downside of their career. With $33+ Million being freed up (possibly) with the departures of Los, Burrell, Wheeler, Soriano, and Bartlett they could realistically fill those spots with cheaper players and be alright…well besides Soriano.
But yeah I think Carlos’s days are numbered.
Once Bitten Twice Shy
Historical aging curves say Pena should be okay, but I’m hesitant to take those curves at face value given the cleaning up of the game, not just Roids but uppers as well. The older you get the harder the 162 game grind becomes. I looked at ISO bounceback comps for Burrell in the offseason: http://www.draysbay.com/2010/1/12/1239035/a-look-at-some-iso-comps-for-pat. Needless to say it turned out to be the worst case scenario.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
I wonder what kind of contract Pena will command this offseason.
Obviously it all depends on his final 4 months, but right now I can’t see him getting close to the $10-12M I originally thought he would going into the year.
Could he find himself in a Hank Blalock type situation if he keeps hitting like he this?
Free Dan Johnson!
It's not August yet.
But I tend to agree: Pena’s days are numbered in TB.
Backs up what I said a couple of days ago
Really sad to see because the guy has been terrific as a team guy and a community guy but it is going to be a painful off-season for him unless someone gets desperate and needs to fill a hole at 1B.
Russ Branyan found a job
The Seattle DH situation isn’t going to sort itself out and they have no qualms about throwing dough at free agents.
Hey, Surly only looks out for one guy...Surly!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Jun 4, 2010 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
If we can get him cheap, then I say why not
But if there a cheaper, younger, better option, then he’s gotta go.
In any case, I’d like to see him retire as a Ray one day.
And this has been bugging me for a while…what exactly is meant by “Old man skills”?
Maddon: "This is your fucking fault!"
Joe West: "My fault?"
Maddon: "Your fucking fault!"
MaddonRage: Sparking rallies since June 2010
(walks, strikeouts, home runs)
When John Jaso strikes out twice in a game, he becomes Kohn Kaso, which is Spanish for "with cheese."
But what about them?
More/Less effective with age?
Maddon: "This is your fucking fault!"
Joe West: "My fault?"
Maddon: "Your fucking fault!"
MaddonRage: Sparking rallies since June 2010
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