Thunder Dan Johnson: Is It Time For The Rays To Call Him Up ?
Despite the success of the Rays to date this season, there has been a noticeable power outage from what we have come to expect. To date the Rays have only socked 78 home runs through 86 games, putting them on pace for 146.9 home runs, or 17 more than the Blue Jays have hit year-to-date. Some of this was to be expected as Ben Zobrist and Jason Bartlett had outlier years in terms on power in 2009. With the pitching staff giving up 94 homers to date, it would be nice to see the gap narrow over the second half of the season.
The designated hitter spot in the order has once again been a complete disaster. Everyone is probably familiar with the Pat Burrell disaster of 2009-10. We've also endured Hank Blalock getting a chance from the left side of the plate prior to being designated for assignment. The player with the most plate appearances in the DH role has been Willy Aybar (132) who has posted a wOBA in the role of .312, slightly ahead of the team DH wOBA of .305.
There is all sorts of clamoring for the Rays to make a deadline deal to acquire a bat to shore the glaring weakness in the lineup. While potentially a short-term solution, it is one that is not foolproof. Outside of Luke Scott, there are few tested options available who are used to the top flight pitching of the American League East and the added difficulty of serving as a designated hitter. The Rays just may have an internal option down in Durham in the form of Dan Johnson.
Friday night Dan Johnson slugged his 24th home run of the season for the Durham Bulls and has posted a slash line of .304/.408/.618. Johnson's 24 home runs are six more than his closest competitor. While this is impressive, its not entirely unexpected. After all, Johnson led the International League in wOBA in 2008 at .425 prior to being called up the Rays.At 30 years old its easy and possibly lazy to dismiss Johnson as a AAAA masher. Why is this unfair?
Because Dan Johnson has displayed some success at the major league level. Johnson's last meaningful action in the big leagues was with Oakland in 2007 when he posted a wOBA of .351 in 495 plate appearances. That season Johnson slugged 18 home runs, and posted a walk rate of 14.5% while only striking out 18.5%. In 73 plate appearances as a DH (SSS alert) he posted an OPS of .924. It's hard to fathom why he has not made it back to the big leagues when all he has done since that season is lead the International League in wOBA twice with a miserable season sandwiched between in Japan where he was unhappy and had to face a strike zone that would make Jamie Moyer green with envy. In a sense he reminds me of Rich Gannon who played well whenever he was forced into playing time in the NFL, but was never given an opportunity until the age of 34, his prime wasted.
If Johnson was to be added, who should be the victim? Gabe Kapler's offensive woes this season combined with the ability of Sean Rodriguez to play the outfield, make him a viable candidate. Once again, I'll throw Willy Aybar out there as a candidate. Johnson actually has a higher wRC+ than Aybar for his major league career (105 vs. 103). They both can play 1st base, and while Aybar has more experience playing 3rd base, he's not going to win a gold glove anytime soon. Meanwhile for the first time in Johnson's career, the majority of his playing time has come at 3rd base. Essentially, Johnson could fill in for Longo if need be, with Sean Rodriguez also available. Reid Brignac is struggling to get playing time, but provides Joe Maddon with all sorts of late game possibilities. The other options would be designating Lance Cormier for assignment of optioning down Andy Sonnanstine. I am not in favor of operating with a short pen due to concerns of fatigue similar to the back stretch of 2009.
Its been both a successful and cruel season for Dan Johnson. There is nothing more he could do to play his way on to the big league club, and yet he's still riding the Durham bus. An obvious potential internal replacement for Carlos Pena next year, I would hate to see the organization lose all of its goodwill with the patient Dan Johnson. It's time to either bring him up with an opportunity or send him to a big league that will utilize him as they did with Adam Kennedy last season. Personally, I think he could be a big asset this season in an area the team is sorely lacking. So I turn to you DRB, should the Rays bring up Dan Johnson?
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As i posted in the Lilly thread, this team is starving for bats
with but two players over an 800 OPS (we had 6 last year), so imo this is a no-brainer. If Maddon is so in love with Kapler than option Brignac, and play Barty hoping his low BABIP will correct itself
Agreed
It isn’t like Johnson’s limited MLB success is that bad either. He’s got about two season’s worth of ABs with an above-average OPS+ (102). Not great for a 1B, but he’s seemingly hitting better than he ever has in the minors, so I’d expect that to carry over some to the bigs. Hell, an OPS+ of 110 would be 4th on the team.
This was a good option last month.
The trade deadline is approaching too fast. DanJo wouldn’t be able to accumulate a sufficient amount of MLB PAs to make a decision on whether or not an additional move is needed.
PLAY BALL DANG IT !!!!!!!
If we get a RH bat and bring up Johnson, i think we'll be fine
If it’s Willingham or Hart how’s this?
Zobrist 2B
CC LF
Longoria 3B
Pena 1B
Hart RF
Johnson DH
Upton CF
Shoppach/Jaso C
Bartlett SS
S-Rod and Joyce will play in a more situational settings
I guess that works. I just hate to see Brigs and Joyce get marginalized PT.
PLAY BALL DANG IT !!!!!!!
by PlayOnWords on Jul 12, 2010 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Next year that won't be a problem
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Next year I won't be a Rays fan because they didn't resign Carl Crawford.
PLAY BALL DANG IT !!!!!!!
by PlayOnWords on Jul 12, 2010 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions
But Matt Joyce can play everyday!
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Can Matt Joyce summon the Speedforce?
PLAY BALL DANG IT !!!!!!!
by PlayOnWords on Jul 12, 2010 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Reference does not compute
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions
The Flash. Taps into the Speedforce.
/has touched a boob before
PLAY BALL DANG IT !!!!!!!
by PlayOnWords on Jul 12, 2010 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions
I just want you to know I got your joke Wally
The caller said the boy, after removing the bulb from its socket, left the building and threw the bulb on the ground. When the bulb broke, the caller said the boy screamed "I am the cat and I am here to steal."
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jul 12, 2010 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions
He will adjust with time.
PLAY BALL DANG IT !!!!!!!
by PlayOnWords on Jul 12, 2010 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm a huge Hart fan
But this would be the ultimate buy high. It would cost so much that we would be forced to play him all the time. It just isn’t a good move.
It reminds me of like a Xavier Nady type move.
Go Gators!!
Thats a very good comparison
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Johnson's had abover-average success in both the AL and at DH
To acquire a career year NL bat for DHing who currently plays a position is a bigger risk, the fact that it would also cost prospects notwithstanding
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't want Corey Hart. Despite being a Brewers fan, I'm on record...right here on DRB *cheap pop*...as being against trading for him.
Never trade prospects for a hot streak.
Werth
DeJesus
Willingham
In that order. We need one of those three.
PLAY BALL DANG IT !!!!!!!
by PlayOnWords on Jul 12, 2010 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed also. I’d add Dunn to that list if he’ll DH. Not Fielder or Hart.
by Jeffrey Borbas on Jul 12, 2010 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
really?
If anything let Zobrist handle SS, with SRod at 2B , Joyce in RF, and Scott DHing. This is if you absolutely must take Brignac out of the lineup.
by Navi's_Navy on Jul 12, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I would guess S-Rod is the better SS at this point
He’s received the PT when Brignac and Bartlett were unavailable. He’s a former SS too and younger.
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't see why Baltimore would do that
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions
He should be up now, and it should have happened awhile ago
Why it hasn’t is extremely perplexing. It really makes little sense.
We have real tremendous roster flexibility at the ML level, so Johnson can replace quite a few players. Depending on who we drop, it would be a marginal loss on defense at best due to our tremendous depth. And offensively it is really a riskless move. Some folks brought up arbitrage for the Mariners on the Lee trade, that title fits this move far better than the Lee move. DanJo brings no risk.
At absolute worst, he stinks, and we are exactly where we are now. At absolute best, he mashes, and is one of our better hitters. Reality is most certainly somewhere inbetween and is no doubt an upgrade over what we have now.
It is a slam dunk improvement over Aybar and Kapler. Over Corms/Sonny would be an improvement as well if Maddon can restrict his matchup ways. Brignac is by far the least appealing of the options.
Go Gators!!
Our best move would be to get Willingham and add DanJo
If Maddon would stick to our best lineup vs each hand we would be pretty loaded
Go Gators!!
Lineups
1b. Pena
2b.Zobrist
SS. MVB (lefties), Brig (righties)
3b. Longo
RF. Joyce (righties), Willingham (lefties)
CF. BJ
LF. Carl
DH. Johnson (righties), Aybar (lefties)
C. Shoppach (lefties), Jaso (righties)
Every once in awhile Joyce or Willingham can DH, or Zobrist can play CF and SRod play 2B, etc.
It wouldn’t cost us much in terms of prospects. It would be a much more potent lineup. Of course this requires Maddon to actually play the proper lineup.
Go Gators!!
I'd rather see Willingham DH with SRod in Zo in RF and S Rod at 2B vs LHP
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
S-Rod in Zo, yeesh
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions
A personal fantasy I see.
/divulges that FZ’s nickname is S-Rod
As you can always expect come from behind victory is when you least expect it.
That could work
With our roster flexibility there is a lot of combinations that would work with Willingham and DanJo. It won’t cost much in terms of prospects so it should easily be our target.
Go Gators!!
Could we platoon more of the roster please?
by firemangreg on Jul 12, 2010 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Platoons aren’t really a terrible thing. Our catcher platoon is pretty fantastic. That being said, if we make a move for a batter, it will be an every day guy who can either play RF or DH only. That would mean we would only platoon C, SS, and 2B/RF (with Zobrist playing one of them full time).
by Jeffrey Borbas on Jul 12, 2010 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks, I wasn't aware that we'd trade for a RF or DH or how our platoons worked.
Moreso complaining about how lost flexibility.
This seems to make sense
Sandrew has been harping on it for awhile
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Or the Cards.
Brendan Ryan and his 48 OPS+ could use some more days off. Tell me Barty isn’t LaRussa’s kinda guy.
And he could bat after the pitcher!
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions
For Adrian Gonzalez. Agreed.
PLAY BALL DANG IT !!!!!!!
by PlayOnWords on Jul 12, 2010 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Jed Hoyer isn't that dumb is he?
Maddon's Mission
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by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT
No.
He’d probably take Bartlett in a dump, but I don’t see him giving up anything of value.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 12, 2010 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
they would probably only give us Ryan Webb or Joe Thatcher
not Adams/Gregerson/Bell
by Navi's_Navy on Jul 12, 2010 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I've been saying this for awhile now
and I don’t know why until now it hasn’t hit me that the reverse is true but it seems like players that go from the AL to the NL almost always seem to get better these days so I think Bartlett would have more value going to a NL team. Not too mention that his leadership and “grit” or whatever you want to call it would fit in nicely with a team without a ton of playoff/contending experience outside of David Eckstein.
The reverse being true kind of hinders my love for Hart though, I don’t know if I’m quite as ready to take on a NL bat over performing, this turns me on a bit more to a guy like Scott. Unfortunately most of the bats we have brought up are from the NL.
This wouldn't make much sense in an 'all in' year
But I wonder if a Garza for Smoak deal would have been possible. That would have really set us up for the future.
Go Gators!!
The trick here would have been to play Texas for their financial inflexibility.
This would tell me that the Rays probably couldn’t have grabbed Smoak with any pitcher they could offer, because our best pitchers are all too cheap.
I hope you understand how provocative and irritating a statement such as "baseball is played on the field not on paper" is. It is the kind of moronic critique that anti-sabermetric neanderthals use (along with the unfunny "mother’s basement" canard) to debunk what they do not understand.
Soriano with highest reliever WPA. 0.38 points higher than next guy (Bard).
PLAY BALL DANG IT !!!!!!!
Somewhat surprising since he's had few dramatic saves
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions
And he's found his newest unworthy target of criticsm.
First Shields, then Longo, now Soriano. Price next? Or does Bartlett finally get some licks for being awful?
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 12, 2010 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions
I just love finding all the 'loopholes' in these stats of yours
xFIP has been used time and again to defend Yields, yet now when Soriano’s xFIP is a run higher than those two, it comes under fire
No it doesn't.
xFIP is very good for SP because we know that all SP regress to that point unless they play in canyons or orbits. RP don’t always regress to the 10.6% point.
A combination of FIP and xFIP is usually best for RP. Just xFIP works for SP.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 12, 2010 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
If you look above that's why i asked first, and rglass
answered in the affirmitive
but i specifically said xFIP--but no problem
I still think over time Davis will be the better pitcher than Yields
Does it matter that much?
Here’s hoping they’re both here for the next five years and do well enough to help us win. I don’t care which is better than the other because Davis’ presence doesn’t lead to Shields’ dismissal and vice versa.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 12, 2010 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Better as defined by?
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
from sternfan1.com:
SFRA (or Sterfan Runs allowed): Arbitrarily assigns run values based on last pitch only. After a game is over, may choose to assign run value based on any time value necessary to demean Rays’ player.
by rglass44 on Jul 12, 2010 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
rglass, did you come up with that stat?
It’s top notch and I feel like most Rays fans use it as their primary evaluation tool.
I used regression analysis on the facts sf1 offers (not opinions, facts)...
Then reverse engineered the formula.
Soriano faces hitters of both hands
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
I do too
But Topkin had him as team MVP of 1st half, when he hasn’t even been our best reliever
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
CARL CRAWFORD. CARL CRAWFORD.
Not a reliever. CARL CRAWFORD.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 12, 2010 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Yea I think he was 3rd
Soriano, Price, CC, Niemann, Longo
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Mid-Season Report
http://www.tampabay.com/sports/baseball/rays/tampa-bay-rays-midseason-report/1108230
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
No I was at the game
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
I did enjoy Kennedy making up the reason Niemann was pulled out
I coudl see Maddon pulling him at 90 pitches, but at 70 there had to be something going on
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
I got baited.
I saw him being pulled, KK made an excuse, and I got pissed off at Maddon because it sounded completely stupid. Yes, let’s pull Niemann to get the bullpen some work and run Dan Wheeler out.
The injury has this move make a lot more sense, and it’s good the Rays pulled it out.
I hope you understand how provocative and irritating a statement such as "baseball is played on the field not on paper" is. It is the kind of moronic critique that anti-sabermetric neanderthals use (along with the unfunny "mother’s basement" canard) to debunk what they do not understand.
Theres no reason not to bite when the home teams color guy provides it as a fact rather than speculation
Grounds for termination with cause?
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes
Funny that there were 8 tweets with this same idea within 45 seconds of Kapler’s post-game interview.
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Kapler said more smart things in 1 minute than Kennedy has in 1.5 years.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 12, 2010 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
You mean Kapler wouldn't mind managing a team with high OBP that can also hit home runs?
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
To be fair, everybody but me was fooled by Prof. KK
I just wish the fans of this team wouldn’t jump all over Maddon the second he does something that doesn’t make sense. He deserves the benefit of the doubt in that instance as he wouldn’t pull Niems unless something was wrong
And if one has a problem using stats to prove a point, then use your eyes.
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 12, 2010 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Well the thing is, I wouldn't put something like that past him. I didn't think he needed to rest Garza, and he did.
Then he ran Choate out to face a righty, and I turned the game off, so I don’t know what happened after that other then the Rays got blown up that game.
I hope you understand how provocative and irritating a statement such as "baseball is played on the field not on paper" is. It is the kind of moronic critique that anti-sabermetric neanderthals use (along with the unfunny "mother’s basement" canard) to debunk what they do not understand.
Also Upton #1 disappointment, forner team MVP was only #3
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
How he cashes hois checks with a straight face baffles me.
If I was as bad at my job as he is his, then I’d be unemployed.
Clearly you are in the wrong industry
Consider meteorology.
by Not Whole View Gang survivor on Jul 12, 2010 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Does he watch the games?
It’s like whatever the weakness was perceived to be the year before he votes the guy exemplifying the correction as mvp.
Weak D in 07 = Bartlett MVP
Weak bullpen down the stretch in 09 = Soriano MVP
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by Sveet on Jul 12, 2010 11:41 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Should bode will for Dan Johnson in 2011
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
.
Longoria needs stability behind him. He gets zero protection with a guaranteed free out to follow when Pena is at 4.
Pena needs to permanately stay at 7, and Rodriguez needs to hit in the 4 spot.
Upton was chosen by fans on an ESPN national poll as the A.L.’s LVP (Least Valuable Player) on the mid season rankings.
I don’t get the fascination people have with Joyce. Is it his mediocre play in Durham? Wowing people with his .295 avg? His mediocre power at age 26? Is it people just praying he’s good because our offense is so poor and we traded Edwin away for him?
Makes sense
And if one has a problem using stats to prove a point, then use your eyes.
2010 Trade Deadline Primer --> http://dockoftherays.com/2010/07/03/2010-trade-deadline-primer/
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 12, 2010 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Time to trash Soriano.
We have to make this right.
/Draysbay logic
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by Sveet on Jul 12, 2010 11:32 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I don't believe in vounter-balancing
But I’ll tell it like it is. He’s nowhere near the MVP. He’s been an outstanding closer.
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Except Soriano is good.
And Bartlett has been replacement level this season. Maybe he should start swinging harder again.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 12, 2010 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Briggy v Rule 5 Ambriz=whiffs on a pitch a foot outside
Barty v Wood ($20.5 million dollar closer)=grinds a game winning gapper to RC
I agree with SF1 that bartlett is the better bat
(vs RHP they are probably close to equals). Bartlett is a serious case of expected regression.
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't think BJ is trashed on this site?
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
I thought Jordi Scrubbings debut piece on RI on Upton was pretty good
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
It was fine.
Another puff peice about Upton, but at least it wasn;t the same crap that’s always spewed about him.
You think he's decided to start going to games instead of SBNation meetups?
I hope you understand how provocative and irritating a statement such as "baseball is played on the field not on paper" is. It is the kind of moronic critique that anti-sabermetric neanderthals use (along with the unfunny "mother’s basement" canard) to debunk what they do not understand.
BJ is treated more then fairly on this site
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by Sveet on Jul 12, 2010 11:53 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I don't see such things.
Maddon's Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.
by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT
Really?
This site?
If he has been trashed then I must have missed it
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by Sveet on Jul 12, 2010 12:00 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
No one likes BJ here.
We like Bartlett.
Maddon's Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.
by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT
Seasonal:
Brignac 0.18 WPA
Bartlett -0.53 WPA.
Brignac just doing the things to help the team win. Bartlett not.
/sf1’d
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 12, 2010 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Valid use of a descriptive stat
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Sabertists lying and getting me pissed.
Maddon's Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.
by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT
He just increased your sample size on btr's
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
it's pretty obvious that Maddon who RJ adores
will give Barty the bulk of the PT at SS
Bartlett has always displayed an unnatural ability to get hits with RISP
Brignac has not. Also Bartlett has so much grit and scrappiness and a much better K% and BB%, as well as better power numbers
by benderbrodriguez on Jul 12, 2010 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Judging by the fact he just hit his first hime run with men on base since he was a Ray
I think its his approach in those situations.
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Positive that's not what he's implying.
Maddon's Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.
by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT
Wrong reply
Maddon's Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.
by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT
BTW
Halfway through the year and 0 3+ run HRS given up by Balfour. With 5 to spare I think its time to put that Becks on ice.
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions
i'm hoping i have to pay off--c'mon over and if you can bear it
we’ll watch a playoff game together and drink a few coldies—my wife won’t even watch with me
During a game = 24 hours a day.
As you can always expect come from behind victory is when you least expect it.
Sternfan's wife only watches with him when the team is losing.
Because that’s when he’s at peace.
Maddon's Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.
by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT
What happens when the Indians play the Rays?
Multiple personalities on sf1?
As you can always expect come from behind victory is when you least expect it.
i haven't been a Tribe fan since '08
by sternfan1 on Jul 12, 2010 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
No oops, subconsciously you wanted to say '08.
BUSTED.
Maddon's Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.
by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT
How are you going to manage not being able to root for a Rays loss the next 3 days?
Maddon's Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.
by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT
Rec'd
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Why would you do this?
And if one has a problem using stats to prove a point, then use your eyes.
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 12, 2010 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Not as significant
They have more “control” over HRs due to matchup advantages and such
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions
That wouldn't matter
Since as long as he stays in the game and closes it out, any decrease would be fully offset by an increase.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
I meant most saves have been >1 run, and only once has he been brought into a jam.
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn't want to speculate on trade market values
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Heaterific
Sonny's Baby Mamas - http://twitter.com/r_j_anderson/status/16590999556
http://twitter.com/jasoncollette/status/16590980428
by Sveet on Jul 12, 2010 11:09 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Seriously, DanJo should be up here, AND playing pretty much daily.
Just like Blalock, if he hits, then it’s all good. If he doesn’t, you send him back down. But unless he comes up and starts showing Blalock-esque plate discipline, you’ve got to play him every day.
I hope you understand how provocative and irritating a statement such as "baseball is played on the field not on paper" is. It is the kind of moronic critique that anti-sabermetric neanderthals use (along with the unfunny "mother’s basement" canard) to debunk what they do not understand.
This one really is a tough call. Everybody is divided over this one for a good reason.
In this kind of situation, I think that pretty much all of the options put forward by people have legitimate thinking behind them. I don’t envy those who really have to decide considering the mixed views on what should happen.
However, here’s my take. With the recent winning form, the Rays will stick it out a bit longer with what they have, hoping that Kapler can increase production with the limited playing time he gets. If the team continues to do well for the next two months then we see Dan Johnson in September, if they falter at all over the next few weeks then Kapler gets DFA’d. I can’t see the Rays going for a shorter pen (‘If it ain’t broke then don’t fix it’) nor can I see Aybar getting DFA’d.
Part of me would prefer Brignac to be optioned down considering his limited playing time and the improvements made by S-Rod, but the immense versatility he provides has been welcomed by Maddon. Right now sending Brignac down offers the least risk with the potentially highest reward, whilst retaining talent and stability. This is no reflection on Brignac regarding his future importance and great showing so far this year. If this doesn’t work out in the very short term, then the Rays go ahead and DFA Kapler.
I don't think Johnson is the awnser
that being said just about any solution that has DFA Gabe Kapler I will be in favor of
He isn't the answer and isn't meant to be. The Rays FO doesn't operate in that way
They want to be marginally better around the edges and in the wings. Our edge is by being better with our depth and our flexibility. Friedman wants our non-stars and average players to be marginally better than our opponents. Finding ‘answers’ just doesn’t fit our mold. Other teams may make splashes at the top of their ‘star chart’, but we will make marginal upgrades near the bottom, but the cumulative effect will be the same.
Of course it won’t cost us nearly as much.
Go Gators!!
I just hate trading close to the bigs prospects away, it can be pretty harmful to our future
I think we’d just be far better off the trade for Willingham and bring up DanJo. Willingham won’t cost us that much, and it won’t be anything close to the majors.
Then in the offseason we dangle Garza out there for a big 1B bat. My dream would be Logan Morrison.
Go Gators!!
I literally dream about Logan Morrison
I can’t believe he was so low on the mid-season rankings. How can he possibly be behind Hosmer? I guess age…but Logan’s BB/K gets me going
Go Gators!!
Can't hurt............
May not hit the dingers like Pena but if he can even hit .250 thats a bonus. We all know Pena is probably not coming back. Give him some abats and see what happens. Like someone said before, if he can’t hit send him back.
Jason Bartlett's career, using fancy stats
2005, 252 PA: .241 AVG, 3 HR, 16 RBI, 33 runs
2006, 372 PA: .309 AVG, 2 HR, 32 RBI, 44 runs
2007, 570 PA: .265 AVG, 2 HR, 43 RBI, 75 runs
2008, 494 PA: .286 AVG, 5 HR, 37 RBI, 48 runs
2009, 567 PA: .320 AVG, 14 HR, 66 RBI, 90 runs
2010, 281 PA: .231 AVG, 2 HR, 33 RBI, 31 runs
If you think Jason Bartlett reached a new level of performance in 2009, then he’s a fantastic player.
If you don’t, then he isn’t.
That’s about it.
He is what he is
A slightly above average bat for his position with a slightly below average glove. He’s certainly a better option than Reid vs Reid at the is point, and the same to a slightly-worse option than Reid vs RHP (depends how you project Reid’s offense). Bartlett had a fluky 09, but 2010 has been pretty fluky as well.
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Dear God, man.
PLAY BALL DANG IT !!!!!!!
by PlayOnWords on Jul 12, 2010 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
People were blinded by Reid's hot start
Coupled with the disdain for Bartlett, the blinders haven’t come off. There is reason to expect regression from Bartlett at the plate. The important question is, how do you project Reid at the plate? .315 and .329 wOBA past two seasons in Durham.
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
That's not what I was commenting on.
PLAY BALL DANG IT !!!!!!!
by PlayOnWords on Jul 12, 2010 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
ANSWER THE QUESTION
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 12, 2010 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he'll end up .270/.310/.450 ish
Never walk much, but there will be some improvement. Not very fast. But he has quick hands and natural gap power that may develop into 10 HR a year. Coupled with +defense and +bayouswavor, that’s amore, chico.
PLAY BALL DANG IT !!!!!!!
Brignac is certainly the man for the future
What happens beyond 2010 is pretty irrelevant to this discussion. As is salary. The question really is what are they going to do over these next few months. If they are played properly, I think they can be a good compliment to each other. And if I had to choose one, I might as well pick with my eyes closed, because I don’t think there will be a significant difference between the two.
2011 and beyond is easy. Boot Barty and give the spot to Brig.
Go Gators!!
.450 slg is probably a little optimistic
Sonny's Baby Mamas - http://twitter.com/r_j_anderson/status/16590999556
http://twitter.com/jasoncollette/status/16590980428
by Sveet on Jul 12, 2010 1:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I think its not too far off his potential, but I don't think he's there yet at MLB
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Finally, some sanity on this point.
It seems like far too many on this site “analyze” their imaginary version of who Brignac and Bartlett ought to be, rather than who they actually are. Brignac is nowhere near as good as the imaginary DRB version, and Bartlett is nowhere near as terrible as the imaginary DRB version.
Kudos to FreeZo for being one of the few established posters on DRB to attempt to analyze Briggy vs. Barty in a reality-based world.
by Not Whole View Gang survivor on Jul 12, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Bartlett's been below replacement level all year.
That’s not his true talent level, but he’s been VERY VERY awful all season long.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 12, 2010 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Bartlett's at replacement level now. Finally.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 12, 2010 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
With more regression to go
Or at least I believe so.
by Not Whole View Gang survivor on Jul 12, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Why??
Whats the reason? He hit .300, he gave stability at the leadoff spot, and great defensively. No one could have predicted this slump he is in. And if he was traded by now there would have been 3 or 4 posts about how they should not have traded him.
No, almost everyone except SF1 was in agreement with this all offseason
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...too much stock in one fluky season.
If John Jaso somehow strikes out, it means you didn’t do your job right as an umpire.
by raysrule44 on Jul 9, 2010 8:37 PM CDT
5 years at one level, 1 year at another level.
Which one says the most?
Maddon's Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.
by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT
Sometimes all it takes is a change of scenery........
Or a change in batting order. I will give on the keeping it up at that high of a level, but no one could have seen his avg drop like an Uptons.
Funny you mention that
Bc his stats dropped a meaningful amount when he moved to leadoff
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So did Uptons… and Jaso’s… I sense a trend.
by Jeffrey Borbas on Jul 12, 2010 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Upton's was based on two years of data. Bartlett and Jaso were based on a month or 3.
Moving BJ up was sound, but his bat has been a disappointment since. I disagreed with moving Bartlett and Jaso up to “chase the streak”. As I’ve been campaigning for, Zobrist is working out quite nicely.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
I like Zo at the leadoff, though Jaso/BJ switch could work just as well.
by Jeffrey Borbas on Jul 12, 2010 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions
BJ’s OBP and baserunning vs LHP is outstandnig though. Zo has been awful vs LHP though I think his 2008 numbers are more of a depiction of his true value there. If BJ gets on base, he scores runs.
by Jeffrey Borbas on Jul 12, 2010 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
3 2-run homers from Craw Daddy in the Indians series
with Zoby walking or singling in front of him. C-daddy batted him in or to third a couple other times as well if I remember correctly. Beautiful, beautiful baseball.
Longo! (Ah-a-ah!) Fighter of the Upton! (Ah-a-ah!) Champion of the Rays! He's the master of batting and defense for everyone!
I knew I liked the high OBP up high but didn't think Zo would be good in leadoff.
Was at the game where Zo was on base for CC’s two HR, it was great to watch (could have had something to do with the bomb ass seats right behind the plate as well)
You don't throw out the season, but it should be discounted
If theres a GM who wants to buy the new imporved Bartlett, you sell. I’m guessing the Rays didn’t get a good enough offer.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
This
Nobody — not even avid JB defenders — expected a total repeat of 2009. So if the Rays could have found a taker who did, I would have been in complete support of a trade.
I assume that didn’t happen, since we still own him.
by Not Whole View Gang survivor on Jul 12, 2010 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
You couldn't possibly think he was going to hit at that same level...
If John Jaso somehow strikes out, it means you didn’t do your job right as an umpire.
by raysrule44 on Jul 9, 2010 8:37 PM CDT
It was a fairly easy thing to guess, yeah.
I didn’t think he would be as bad as he’s been, though. No one did.
If John Jaso somehow strikes out, it means you didn’t do your job right as an umpire.
by raysrule44 on Jul 9, 2010 8:37 PM CDT
He's closer to himself this year than last.
wOBA:
2005: .297 (252 PA)
2006: .335 (372 PA)
2007: .319 (570 PA)
2008: .311 (494 PA)
2009: .389 (567 PA)
2010: .293 (281 PA)
He’s had two above league average offensive seasons and far more in the .310-.320 range. He’ll probably nestle into that range again.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 12, 2010 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions
A lot of folks (myself included) wanted to trade him in the offseason
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
I can't think of one person that didn't think it was the smart move
And if one has a problem using stats to prove a point, then use your eyes.
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 12, 2010 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't recall him being vocally against trading Barty
And if one has a problem using stats to prove a point, then use your eyes.
2010 Trade Deadline Primer --> http://dockoftherays.com/2010/07/03/2010-trade-deadline-primer/
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 12, 2010 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
When will i post my first ‘I told you so’ if Brignac replaces Bartlett at SS next season?Brignac has never hit outside the softballesque California league
by sternfan1 on Nov 22, 2009 8:17 AM PST reply actions
When Cy Young winners return a 18yo who ius labeled the centerpiece of the deal i’d be skeptic to what Bartlett’s return would be. In other words he’s worth more to the Rays in ’10 then what he would bring
by sternfan1 on Sep 14, 2009 6:53 AM PDT up reply actions
i’d be very concerned erading offensive numbers I also don’t see Bartlett repeating his OBP, but i feel he has learned how to turn on a fastball and he may keep the power
He also recently has improved his BB%
by sternfan1 on Sep 14, 2009 5:06 AM PDT up reply actions
I guess the Yankees should have dumped Jeter than long ago If Bartlett’s a problem on this team i wish we had nime more of them. And you completely changed the post i made
by sternfan1 on Sep 10, 2009 7:41 AM PDT up reply actions
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That last one is a real gem, I'm pretty inclined to agree with this
In other words he’s worth more to the Rays in ’10 then what he would bring
And if one has a problem using stats to prove a point, then use your eyes.
2010 Trade Deadline Primer --> http://dockoftherays.com/2010/07/03/2010-trade-deadline-primer/
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 12, 2010 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Those actually aren't crazy opinions
There are valid arguments that can made for most of that.
Brignac might not be a better hitter then Bartlett
He might have been worth more to the Rays in ’10 then what they could have gotten for him.
Sonny's Baby Mamas - http://twitter.com/r_j_anderson/status/16590999556
http://twitter.com/jasoncollette/status/16590980428
I was just pasting the evidence that he was against moving Bartlett
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He's not great defensively anymore.
And literally everyone who wasn’t blinded by something like “he started to swing harder” knew the offensive gains were mostly pumpkins and fairy dust.
Obviously nobody should expect replacement level play to happen or continue to happen though.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 12, 2010 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions
His defense has slipped, as you would expect with age and injuries.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
And those pumpkins were needle shaped, and that fairy dust steroid flavored
(not really, but I like the visual image of needle-shaped pumpkins and fairy dust that comes in cherry, grape, and tetrahydrogestrinone flavors)
I hope you understand how provocative and irritating a statement such as "baseball is played on the field not on paper" is. It is the kind of moronic critique that anti-sabermetric neanderthals use (along with the unfunny "mother’s basement" canard) to debunk what they do not understand.
Regression was to be expected
When you also figure this was a cost-controlled season, his trade value was never to be higher.
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He's right, regression and this are not the same thing
He’s way overstating his case, but this much is true
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
Other teams knew what he is
And if one has a problem using stats to prove a point, then use your eyes.
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 12, 2010 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
This is the key.
If we were getting middle relievers without upside offered to us, then may as well keep him.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 12, 2010 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I just find this hard to believe
Considering Corey Hart is about to net a fortune and we were able to trade a broken Kazmir for a few pretty solid pieces…
Quite a few dumb GMs out there…
Go Gators!!
So I'm using the RSS Feed gadget feature on Windows 7, I have RSS Feeds of Jayson Stark and Ken Rosenthal.
Any other worthy tweeters for breaking trade news?
Maddon's Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.
by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT
So far as I can tell, local beat writers are the way to go.
If John Jaso somehow strikes out, it means you didn’t do your job right as an umpire.
by raysrule44 on Jul 9, 2010 8:37 PM CDT
I already have Marc Topkin for his detailed analysis and midseason report cards.
Maddon's Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.
by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT
vs RHP
.329/.415/.686 (1.101 OPS)
33BB/38K
15 2B/20 HR
.318 BABIP (as of a few days ago, MiLSplits.com hasn’t updated in a while)
If John Jaso somehow strikes out, it means you didn’t do your job right as an umpire.
by raysrule44 on Jul 9, 2010 8:37 PM CDT
In regard to Dan Johnson
and how his stats in the minors can give an indication of what he will do in the Big Show.They are trivial at best.They do tell us that he does deserve a chance.With the current situation the Rays are in,bringing up Dan is the thing to do ,unless a significant favorable trade falls in our lap. He should replace Kapler or Briggy.The Rays will have to use their scouts instead of their statistical analysis to make this determination.My eyes are telling me that Reid needs more work in the minors to improve.When he first started this season he contributed greatly to the teams fine start,now he is having a hard time and is upercutting his swing.The Rays should do the right thing and give the man with the greatest homerun in the teams history a chance to prove his worth.
For what its worth
His LD% is within career norms and his BABIP is remarkable neutral.
His GB/FB is out of whack but other than that everything points to his AAA numbers being legit. Sure there’s going to be a level adjustment, but it shouldn’t be as bad as you think.
If John Jaso somehow strikes out, it means you didn’t do your job right as an umpire.
by raysrule44 on Jul 9, 2010 8:37 PM CDT
Given how well Blalock did in AAA before his call-up
And how he did after, I can understand the FO’s reluctance to waive a player with guaranteed salary in favor of a guy with a track record of being mediocre who’s mashing in AAA.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Also, Blalock's perifs were screaming for regression.
He was hitting way over his head in AAA.
If John Jaso somehow strikes out, it means you didn’t do your job right as an umpire.
by raysrule44 on Jul 9, 2010 8:37 PM CDT
Blalock came with question marks beyond his peripherals too
DanJo doesn’t have the injury history, recent diminshed performance or park factor obstacles to overcome.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
Definitely a safer bet to produce
always was.
If John Jaso somehow strikes out, it means you didn’t do your job right as an umpire.
by raysrule44 on Jul 9, 2010 8:37 PM CDT
Probably
I sided with Blalock at the time for the sole reason being if he failed you still had DanJo. If DanJo failed it would be too late for Blalock. The time is nao, this is why they signed him.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
I did too.
But I also thought DanJo would immediately replace Blalock in the lineup when he was DFA’d.
Had I thought about Joyce being another option, I probably would have sided with Johnson at the time.
If John Jaso somehow strikes out, it means you didn’t do your job right as an umpire.
by raysrule44 on Jul 9, 2010 8:37 PM CDT
,395 at the time of his callup.
was OPSing .789 vs RHP with a .107 ISO.
If John Jaso somehow strikes out, it means you didn’t do your job right as an umpire.
by raysrule44 on Jul 9, 2010 8:37 PM CDT
Damn that Blalock
Sonny's Baby Mamas - http://twitter.com/r_j_anderson/status/16590999556
http://twitter.com/jasoncollette/status/16590980428
Damn Scott Boras
If he doesn’t open his mouth I think DanJo gets the call.
If John Jaso somehow strikes out, it means you didn’t do your job right as an umpire.
by raysrule44 on Jul 9, 2010 8:37 PM CDT
Blalock's BABIP was absurdly high, DanJo's appears to be within the norm
And if one has a problem using stats to prove a point, then use your eyes.
2010 Trade Deadline Primer --> http://dockoftherays.com/2010/07/03/2010-trade-deadline-primer/
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 12, 2010 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm a Kapler hater from way back
But dumping him for Dan Johnson would not be the right move given the shortage of RH bats we have off the bench. Here’s hoping a deal gets worked out that nets us a legit RH bat. Then all this will be a moot point.
Kapler's so bad his handness doesn't factor into the equation.
His RH bat is strictly for aesthetics at this point.
If John Jaso somehow strikes out, it means you didn’t do your job right as an umpire.
by raysrule44 on Jul 9, 2010 8:37 PM CDT
The flexibility of SRod and Zo allow for fewer RHB
You have Shoppach and Aybar.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
But Zo & S-Rod are starters, for all intents & purposes
And I know I’m old school, but I don’t like the backup catcher as a bat off the bench. That leaves only Aybar, who (though the numbers are reversed so far his year) hits better as a lefty.
Frankly, I’d like to see both gone, with Johnson and our newly acquired RH bat filling the void.
Aybar hits better as a RHB for his career
That leaves CC, Pena as the only lefty bats in the lineup with no PH. Aybar can hit for Joyce if need be. Shopp could PH for Jaso if the situation called for it.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
Same could be said but with Kapler instead of Aybar. I don’t care which one goes down, but Kapler can at least play the field and has a veteran presence. Willy doesn’t even speak English (I think).
by Jeffrey Borbas on Jul 12, 2010 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
The king of the dugout home run hugs/high fives probably is liked by his teammates regardless of his primary language
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
It’s not like Kapler is disliked. Veteran mentors are undervalued.
by Jeffrey Borbas on Jul 12, 2010 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions
But again, either could go really. Neither is producing. I was calling for Kaplers head over Blalocks.
by Jeffrey Borbas on Jul 12, 2010 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Veteran mentors are overvalued.
I love Kapler but if he’s not producing he needs to go. Whether it’s to the announcing booth, Durham, or to the first base coaching cutout doesn’t matter.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 12, 2010 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
WHO WILL MASH LEFTIES IF WE HAVE NO KAPLER?
And if one has a problem using stats to prove a point, then use your eyes.
2010 Trade Deadline Primer --> http://dockoftherays.com/2010/07/03/2010-trade-deadline-primer/
Adam Sobsey of Indy Week
So I asked Johnson if he was frustrated. “Of course I’m frustrated. I didn’t sign a big-league contract to spend a year in the minor leagues.” And even though Johnson quickly added that he knows he can’t control where he plays, he must be wondering why the Rays don’t at least trade him to a team that can use him. (When Tampa was rumored to be pursuing the Mariners’ hurler Cliff Lee, it was easy to speculate that Johnson might be off to Seattle, which needs bats badly.) You could, uncharitably, lay some of the blame on Johnson for choosing to sign on with a team that didn’t have a demonstrated need for him on the big-league roster; but on the other hand it’s reasonable to assume that Tampa gave Johnson a big-league contract because they planned to play him in the, you know, big leagues. Sometimes you have too many first-chair violinists when what you need is a french horn player. Nonetheless, Johnson deserves to play in the majors, somewhere. The Rays themselves are keeping Johnson from cashing in on his merits right now. Here’s betting that things will have changed by the July 31 trading deadline. For Johnson’s sake, I hope they do.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
Earlier in the year he said he was happy to sign with Tampa because of how the organization treated him last time around.
Its easy to understand why he’d be frustrated at this point.
If John Jaso somehow strikes out, it means you didn’t do your job right as an umpire.
by raysrule44 on Jul 9, 2010 8:37 PM CDT
Dan Johnson
How has Dan Johnson’s fielding been at Durham? I’m in favor of bringing him up, even at the expense of Aybar. Or, dare I say, send Matt Joyce down for more seasoning?
Surprisingly good, both at 3B and in LF.
He’s made excellent plays at both positions, even though 1B is his natural spot. I suppose his range isn’t great, but he makes almost all of the easy plays and gets to some of the tougher ones. Quick reflexes at 3B, good diving/sliding catches in the OF, hits cutoff man, etc.
BTW, didn’t mean to imply in my piece quoted above that DanJo is petulant; he’s just dying to play in the majors and has done everything you can ask toward proving his case. He’s no Upton.
Johnson 4 Krapler
bringing in Johnson is a no brainer for the Rays to help solve their hitting woes. Krapler should be the one to go down for him. That will keep the lineup more consistant and not have Maddon creaming his pants for Krapler when a lefty is pitching.

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