Series Preview: Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees
by Steve Slowinski on Jul 16, 2010 1:00 PM EDT
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Might as well start the second half off with a bang...
Friday, July 15: James Shields (4.11 FIP) vs. CC Sabathia (3.75 FIP)
Saturday, July 16: Jeff Niemann (4.21 FIP) vs. AJ Burnett (4.73 FIP)
Sunday, July 17: David Price (3.59 FIP) vs. Andy Pettitte (3.82 FIP)
Holy cow - I am blown away by these pitching match-ups. This should be fun.
This is a big series, but then again, every series from now until the end of the year is a "big series". Every single game looks like it should be a close, hard-fought game, and the series could easily tip one way or the other. The Yankees have the pitching advantage in the first game (and I don't like the idea of James Shields and his recent homerun issues pitching in Yankee Stadium), but the Rays definitely have the upper hand in the second and third games. Price versus Pettitte - now there's a pitching match-up I can't wait to watch.
Of course, these are all going to be games that give Joe West nightmares. Not only will the games themselves be long and drawn out - this is the Yankees, the slowest moving team in the majors - but there will be tributes and remembrances for Bob Sheppard and George Steinbrenner at least before/during the Friday night game. Also, Old Timers' Day is on Saturday, and so there will be lots of pomp and circumstance that day as well. I'm sure it will all be lovely, but if you're going to sit down to watch these games, consider yourself forewarned.
There are two keys for the Rays this series: good pitching and getting to the bullpen early. With the dominant Yankee line-up, good pitching is always a key to beating the Yanks - that shouldn't be a surprise. As for the bullpen, the Yankees have some excellent starters and a dominant back of the 'pen in Mariano Rivera, but the bridge between the starters and the ninth inning has been shaky this year. Joba Chamberlain is the only other pitcher in the entire pen with a FIP below 4, and he's still managed to post a 5.79 ERA. Chan Ho Park has been rather awful (5.21 FIP) and none of the other pitchers has been much better. If the Rays want to win, they need to chase the Yanks' starters early and take advantage of their soft underbelly.
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What does it mean...
…in the long run, to shake up the rotation like this? And have the Yanks adjusted their rotation coming out of the break?
Thanks for the info.
I've always considered writing the most hateful kind of work ... I suspect its a bit like fucking, which is only fun for amateurs. -Hunter Thompson
by RockyRippleColtsFan on Jul 16, 2010 1:24 PM EDT reply actions
C.C. started the final game before the break
and is now leading off the 2nd half, so I guess that fits the mold of an adjustment.
I’m mildly surprised the Yankees are still going forth with Burnett in the 2 spot. Pettitte’s clearly having a better season, on the whole.
by FloridaownsFSU on Jul 16, 2010 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Why not
…have DP face Sabathia? I know Pettitte is having a great year, but don’t we need the best facing the best?
I've always considered writing the most hateful kind of work ... I suspect its a bit like fucking, which is only fun for amateurs. -Hunter Thompson
by RockyRippleColtsFan on Jul 16, 2010 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Playing the odds?
Since the Yankees would probably have the upper-hand being at home with their ace against Price, and that by going Niemann/Price over the weekend, they increase the odds of winning those games?
I dunno.
by FloridaownsFSU on Jul 16, 2010 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
If they pick up where they left off before the break, the rotation would be
Price
Garza
Shields
Niemann
Davis
Everyone will be on long rest so it should work ok. If they were going to shift the rotation, this is probably the best way to do it.
Hopefully we can win tonight so we don't have to hear from the site pessimist.
Maddon's Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.
by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT
by Doug09 on Jul 16, 2010 1:40 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Awful. What's next, "Barflett" and his salary that's almost double Shields'?
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 16, 2010 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
All Yields has to do to shut me up is go out and have a very good start
and i don’t mean one measured by saber
Yeah right.
Good start, as defined by saber:
- Few walks
- Strikeouts
- Few home runs
- Swinging strikes
- Groundballs
- Innings
So you’d be fine with a 9 IP 10 H 3 BB 1 SO 0 ER outing? You wouldn’t say he got lucky?
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 16, 2010 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
If Yields puts that up tonight, "let the party begin"
i really don’t think you enjoy watching a game, for the basic and fullfilling outcome of winning or losing
Why is that?
The saber definition of a good start is more likely to result in a win than the traditional version where ER are thought of as 100% skill rather than a confluence of events — some within the pitchers’ hands, others not.
Ideally Shields throws a CGSO, but realistically, the only thing I expect is for him to limit his walks, strike some guys out, and try to keep the ball on the ground when they put it in play.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 16, 2010 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Be honest now....
if what you say is true, why would i bother to scour everything written on the Rays, check every minor league box score nightly, and blog here on a regular basis?
You can’t be this dumb, can you?
Because you self-loathe?
You’re never around or happy to see the Rays win, but as soon as they’re too boring or lose a few in a row you’re here saying the sky is falling. I really don’t understand why you follow the team since you can’t just root for them.
"let the party begin" - SF1
Boom. Outta Here.
by Ryan Gilliss on Jul 16, 2010 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I would be overjoyed with something like http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/y2009/index.jsp?gid=2008_10_23_phimlb_tbamlb_1&mode=gameday from Shields even.
by benderbrodriguez on Jul 16, 2010 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Seriously RJ? Barflett over Fartlett?
Longo! (Ah-a-ah!) Fighter of the Upton! (Ah-a-ah!) Champion of the Rays! He's the master of batting and defense for everyone!
Gonna be tough
But i think we will do ok against the Yankees . Not sure about Shields tonight though.
Are you really giving your readers a fair analysis by only
giving FIP numbers of the three pitchers? I mean this for both the Yankees and Rays
Does a series that includes Burnett and Yields stack up to be some “great pitching” matchups?
New stat
FAP
Calculates the seconds lasted during a FAP session when talking about “Yields” not being a good pitcher.
You lead the league with a 1.05 FAP
Maddon's Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.
by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT
by Doug09 on Jul 16, 2010 1:43 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I unfortunately have to agree with this guy.
Listing FIP alone is really just as bad as if you were to list ERA alone. Neither tell the whole story and it seems cherry-picked to defend site-favorite James Shields.
Yes. That's what it is.
Is xFIP cherrypicked to defense site favorite James Shields too? Man, it’s like the entire sabermetrics community got together and said, “We really need to defend James Shields. How can we do that?”
That James Shields. What a guy with long reach.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 16, 2010 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Was it necessary to reply like this?
I stated that it does not tell the whole story to list FIP alone as a full evaluation of player worth – something that gets done very often here.
It probably had to do more with the terms :cherry-picked", "defend site-favorite"
Your point could have been made with a more neutral tone, too.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
You could have just pointed out his tERA of 4.54 as a counter-point
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
I personally prefer to accuse writers of unfounded bias myself.
I hope you understand how provocative and irritating a statement such as "baseball is played on the field not on paper" is. It is the kind of moronic critique that anti-sabermetric neanderthals use (along with the unfunny "mother’s basement" canard) to debunk what they do not understand.
Uh.. my response was that I noted my mistake in accusing bias.
But thanks, dude.
That wasn't really necessary. He got the point.
I hope you understand how provocative and irritating a statement such as "baseball is played on the field not on paper" is. It is the kind of moronic critique that anti-sabermetric neanderthals use (along with the unfunny "mother’s basement" canard) to debunk what they do not understand.
Was it necessary to accuse Steve of analytical bias?
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 16, 2010 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry for being a jackass.
It’s just irritating to see people make comments like that about Steve when he’s not exactly reaching into the valleys of obscurity here.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 16, 2010 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
It just goes back to a post that was made a couple of days ago about the inability of a single statistic to tell the whole story.
And it seemed to me as if he was attempting to do that very thing. Perhaps he was not using it to cover up a super-secret site-wide conspiracy to defend Shields, but I feel that it is misleading nonetheless.
I get that we like to see one single statistic to measure up a guy – since it works so well with batting – and it’s so far not entirely possible to do with pitching.
FIP is pretty good though
It’s better than ERA, and although I don’t like how FIP, xFIP, and tERA are used as gospel, I think it’d have to be either FIP or xFIP if you could only have one thing to look at
by benderbrodriguez on Jul 16, 2010 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
xFIP for single season SP.
tERA doesn’t account for Shields’ bloated BABIP. tERA* would work, I suppose.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 16, 2010 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
xFIP doesn't do Brett Myers or CC Sabathia justice though
Plus, FIP correlates better with results than xFIP
by benderbrodriguez on Jul 16, 2010 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions
That's to be expected though.
Since it doesn’t take ballpark into account, and obviously not every pitcher is going to have a 10.6% HR/FB at season’s end no matter where they pitch.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 16, 2010 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Matt Cain has exposed the imperfections of xFIP to me.
xFIP has never liked him, yet after 1000 IP of beating his peripherals, xFIP still calls for serious regression. Cain, for instance, induces a ton of pop-flys, which xFIP treats as fly-balls, therefore seeing cause for regression.
He is just one example, but I am sure there are many more. Cain’s is most striking to me because he is high-profile and his regression has been expected for three years now.
For reference, 1000 IP is almost the entire career of many top-tier relievers,
and Cain has outpitched his peripherals the entire time. It is certainly a large enough sample size to consider.
Anyway, the point of this in re:Shields
It may be possible, in the long run, to contradict your peripherals. A good FIP while posting a consistently bad ERA is not entirely unlikely.
His career ERA is just .12 higher than his FIP though
This is the widest margin of his career
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
Yeah, I was grasping at straws with a way to tie that back into the Rays.
Just noticed I was turning this into Matt Cain chat.
Given that the last three years have been spent in front of a phenominal defense
This is a little concerning, to say the least
by benderbrodriguez on Jul 16, 2010 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Gopher balls
Defense can’t stop the balls that leave the yard. He’s had the 6th highest HR/9 in the AL over the past 3 years, 7th worst HR/FB out of 25 at 10.7%. The interesting thing about the 10.6% HR/FB used for xFIP: in the AL over the past 3 season 16 of the 25 pitchers are sub-10%. Shields has demonstrated below-average skill at keeping the ball in the park among starting pitchers who last in the American League. However his #’s this year should regress.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
If I'm going to pick one stat to put up there for a pitcher, it's either going to be FIP or xFIP.
I’ve said before that it’s not good to use just one, but I wasn’t planning on getting into huge analyses of all six starters. I’ll try and do more next time.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
by Steve Slowinski on Jul 16, 2010 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn't even notice that sleeve
thats awesome
Sam Bradford
BTW is it just me or is the Rotoworld news feed on the left hand side of the home page
Not had a scroll for awhile? I cant even scroll down on it
Sam Bradford
lets take 2 out of 3
one more year Brett Favre!
i hope, but i will be happy with 2 out of 3
one more year Brett Favre!
Going to see any of the Old Timers festivities?
by FloridaownsFSU on Jul 16, 2010 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I believe so
I’m going with a friend who’s a yankee fan, so I’m pretty certain that we’ll be getting there in time
by Matt Slowinski on Jul 16, 2010 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll be there tonight
Had free ticks for tomorrow too, but have to get home.
I know there is all sorts of stuff that will bring tears to SF1's eyes this weekend
Re; the Boss, the Voice, and the Old Timers, but there was also a lot of stuff going on when they opened the stadium last year vs. the Indians.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
but what about the babe ruth curse or the billy goat curse?
you saying those arent real?
one more year Brett Favre!
How can Sean-Rod
use the flooding of his condo as an excuse for missing the game.Does he have his finger in the leak.This sounds nonprofessional to me.
Very hard to win a game when you load the bases twice with no out and score two runs.
Pena is a rally KILLER. Most teams will intentionally walk Longo to get to Pena. Strike out or double play almost guarenteed. Benoit unfortunately not his usual self when he yanked a pitch center of plate to Swisher. Still very competitive game and fun to watch except outcome. WE ARE LACKING A RH BAT TO BACKUP LONGO!
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