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Five Things About Last Night's Yankees-Rays Game

(Three of them about B.J. Upton)

1) I was at the game, so didn't have the benefit of announcers: Is Rafael Soriano hurt? He went those 4 outings in a row, then Maddon bent over backwards to give him...not just ample rest, but excessive rest before the All-Star break. Last night's decision making made me wonder if he was nursing an injury that the Rays hadn't discussed.

If he wasn't injured, then Joe Maddon lost that game. Unacceptable not to bring in Soriano - if for nothing else than to face Nick Swisher with the game on the line.

2) Randy Choate's FIP/other advanced stats vs. left-handed hitters still look good. But the Rays either need a true lefty hammer, one who can dominate hitters on both sides and doesn't need extremely limited usage patterns, or Joe Maddon has to think about more aggressive usage of his three best relief arms, Grant Balfour, Joaquin Benoit, and Soriano. The Rays see enough low- and medium-leverage situations in the course of a season that Dan Wheeler, Randy Choate and Lance Cormier (or someone from the minors or outside the organization - Andy Sonnanstine is a wild card who's exempt from the laws of nature) should be able to get plenty of work. Balfour, Benoit and Soriano have shown they can retire hitters of all stripes. If it's a high-leverage situation, there's no reason to ever be cute - unless the bullpen's big three have been worked really hard in the previous few days. LaRussa managing isn't helping. You've got three great weapons, use them properly.

Star-divide

3) B.J. Upton did NOT make a great catch on that slide. It looked pretty, sure. But he royally, royally misjudged that ball. I suspected as much watching it live, and happened to be walking next to a TV screen as they showed the replay. Woefully late break. Never should have had to dive in the first place.

4) Upton getting picked off by Rivera in the 9th is inexcusable. I don't care if Rivera balked, or if Upton says he balked, or if Rivera shot laser beams out of his spleen. There is no excuse for that. They may well not have scored anyway (Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria were overmatched, certainly), but that was miserably bad.

5) It was one play, and an analyst is never supposed to react to one play, but...I'm done with Upton.

If you actually take the hard data approach that Steve Slowinski at DRaysBay cited, you can find some rational evidence to support that seemingly irrational judgment.

In 2007, Upton's one huge offensive season, his BABIP nearly .400. He hit one home run for every five flyballs that year. Hence the near-.300 batting average and 24 homers. But his statistical profile -- a career 27.6% K rate, career ISO of .146 -- points to a guy who can draw walks and hit for moderate power...but also be a lousy bet to be much above a .260 hitter with ~15-home run power. Upton is a good fielder, but by objective measures we cannot call him great. About +3 to +5 per season in CF. Upton's basestealing (high volume at about a 75% career success rate) is the only part of his profile that's truly extraordinary.

He's a 3-win player until he (re-)proves otherwise, at least from where I'm sitting. Still an extraordinary bargain at his current salary, but going into ARB2 this off-season, I would give serious, serious thought to shopping him, if other teams still view him as a future superstar and not merely a good but not great player.

Could he still be a future superstar? Sure. He's 25 years old, a former number-one draft pick, and has shown hints of stardom at various times. But on a resource-limited team, it would be foolish to count on it, or to pay him like one.

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Had no problem with Choate's usage last night...just his execution

1.87 FIP in high leverage situations vs LHP and hold batters to a .185 average. I knew it was going to be bad when Curtis Granderson got a base hit – someone who hits about 10 points higher vs LHP than I do.

by Jason Collette on Jul 17, 2010 9:13 AM EDT reply actions  

That particular situation had 3 lesser LH bats up

So using Choate was reasonable. But that’s likely the most Choate-able situation of the 2010 season. More often, you might see something like Good LH – Good RH or SH – Good LH. That’s not nearly as Choate-able if it’s a tie game in the 8th or 9th inning. That’s Benoit or Soriano. And as much as it would be swell to have a Matt Thornton type (not the Thorton given where the White Sox are in the standings, but someone of that ilk)…

a 6) would be: Need a bat, now. Willy Aybar is not a plus major league hitter. He’s excellent as a super-UT guy and pinch-hit option. But the Rays have been missing that one more hammer for the lineup since the moment the Twins signed Jim Thome for $1.5 million. Not to say Thome could have been had for $1.501 million necessarily (things are rarely that cut and dried), but the hole remains.

by Jonah Keri on Jul 17, 2010 9:18 AM EDT reply actions  

If it were the 6th inning...

I’m ok with Choate there. But if you’re playing to continue the game, use your stud.

www.draysbay.com, www.bloombergsports.mlblogs.com, Twitter @trancel

by Tommy Rancel on Jul 17, 2010 9:23 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

If the plan was to try to skate by the bottom of the lineup playing matchups, thats fine

But once the situation is dire, get $7 million in the game. You have to be able to change courses.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 17, 2010 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

IMO Even leaving Wheeler in would was a much better move then bringing in Cormier

Sonny's Baby Mamas - http://twitter.com/r_j_anderson/status/16590999556
http://twitter.com/jasoncollette/status/16590980428

by Sveet on Jul 17, 2010 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

Without a potential double play situation (there were 2 outs), I agree

Wheeler runs the risk of a HR, but is far more likely to record an out. A HR is no worse than a single there.The time where MAYBE a defensible Cromier appearance was to face Jeter.

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by FreeZorilla on Jul 17, 2010 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

I have been saying this for awhile
Willy Aybar is not a plus major league hitter. He’s excellent as a super-UT guy and pinch-hit option.

The point I would argue is he isn’t an excellent super-UT guy. His defense makes him a liability whenever he is in the field. He is basically a DH and he doesn’t hit near well enough to be a DH only type.

Sonny's Baby Mamas - http://twitter.com/r_j_anderson/status/16590999556
http://twitter.com/jasoncollette/status/16590980428

by Sveet on Jul 17, 2010 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not saying he isn't useful

but with 25man rosters. You have to make some tough decisions.

I just don’t think a below avg hitter who can only DH and also a SH pinch hitter is worth a roster spot. I would rather have DanJo

Sonny's Baby Mamas - http://twitter.com/r_j_anderson/status/16590999556
http://twitter.com/jasoncollette/status/16590980428

by Sveet on Jul 17, 2010 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with you

A PH is less valuable than a DH

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 17, 2010 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

Cormier was much worse than Choate

No words for how bad the Cormier decision was. And it’s not like this was 20/20 hindsight. Everyone saw it and called it out as it happened.

by Jonah Keri on Jul 17, 2010 9:25 AM EDT reply actions  

The worst part is when you look across the field and see Joe friggin Girardi using Mariano friggin Rivera in a non-save situation it should probably start the gears turning.

The caller said the boy, after removing the bulb from its socket, left the building and threw the bulb on the ground. When the bulb broke, the caller said the boy screamed "I am the cat and I am here to steal."

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jul 17, 2010 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

At that point

there would no longer be a save situation possible for the Yankees, so he could use him whenever. I personally agree with what maddon did. You have to have soriano available if we take the lead against the Yankees lineup.

by peteypab on Jul 17, 2010 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

He brought in our worst reliever in a huge situation

That’s just asking for failure

Sonny's Baby Mamas - http://twitter.com/r_j_anderson/status/16590999556
http://twitter.com/jasoncollette/status/16590980428

by Sveet on Jul 17, 2010 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

There's no point in playing for a save situation

when you’re in a spot where that may never come.

Use what you need to use to prolong the game, and worry about who comes in IF you take the lead if/when that situation arises.

by FloridaownsFSU on Jul 17, 2010 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with your BJ take 100%

He’s a league-average hitter, provides very good defense at a premium position and has great speed on the basepaths with 60 sb abilty. That alone makes him a pretty decent player, right. And I know I’m repeating your point, but with his youth, pedigree, and potential, there has to be a market for him. Maybe without the weight of expectations, he would stand a better chance of rounding out his game.
Maybe our expectations from his draft position, prospect status and 07 success have ruined our chances of appreciating what he is now. But whatever the cause, I’m with you: I am totally done with him.

by the jabber on Jul 17, 2010 9:25 AM EDT reply actions  

Re 5:

I’m starting to slide to toward a feeling of apathy about Upton. I’m not sure that a change of scenery isn’t the best thing for him at this point in time or in the offseason.

At this point in time, I feel like BJ’s true level of play lies somewhere in between where I, and others on this site believe, and the low level that a lot of the people that in the community think.

It’s amazing the amount of people who will not just criticize his failures, but actually celebrate them.

Boom. Outta Here.

by Ryan Gilliss on Jul 17, 2010 9:39 AM EDT reply actions  

Agreed 100% on point one. Cormier shouldn't be in mop-up duty, let alone what could turn out to be one of the highest leverage situations of the season.

Point two I tend to agree with Collette’s point above, but there is definite need for someone else who can throw left handed (and hopefully with some more skill) in our pen.

Ah BJ Upton:
I certainly don’t know this, I don’t know how the measure it, and I don’t know what the baseline is, but it really seems to me that the greatest failing of this Rays organization is its ability to deal with psychological, personal, and personality issues in players. I’m not super equipped to debate this point, and Jonah, Tommy and the other unknown insiders probably have more insight that anyone else in addressing it, but there is a pretty concrete list of failures or miss-steps here. (Again, it could be that they are no worse than other teams, but I don’t experience other teams to this degree so I wouldn’t know):

Josh Hamilton – Perhaps a completely untenable situation, and they certainly stuck with him enough to “right his ship,” so perhaps a bad example. The only reason I put him on this list is the questionable decision not to protect him on the 40 man. Was that because of mistrust of his demons, or because of his injury history?

Elijah Dukes: Obviously a guy with serious problems, and maybe someone that no team was equipped to help, but I felt at the time we got rid of him, and maybe more so now that he was just given up on. Rather than have a system in place to deal with and help him, the Rays used the “change of scenery” excuse and shipped him out for virtually no return. The rumors of how the AAA Club treated him are even more concerning to me.

Delmon Young: Certainly no one is going to complain about the trade, but he was a guy with an obvious attitude issues that that seem (from an outsiders perspective) to never have been adequately addressed. He never had any off the field issues that I know of, but there was certainly personality management that failed to take place.

Now BJ Upton: This is a guy that by all accounts is a good person. Grew up in a good and stable family, has only ever had one off-field issue that we know of. The problem is that personality management thing again. I’m one of the worlds biggest BJ defenders and I still wouldn’t go to the level of “I’m done with Upton” as our undiplomatic hoser friend has, but there is obviously an issue that needs to be addressed here.

I don’t know if things describe here fall on the shoulders of the manager, or “clubhouse leaders” or specialists, but ultimately they are the responsibility of the organization. There may be a calculus that says it simply isn’t worth the time or resources to deal with this, but that strikes me as callously inhumane.

Perhaps the next market inefficiency that this small market team can exploit is troubled-but-talented players. It’s not like the Rays are risk adverse here, signing borderline monsters like Julio Lugo and Wily Aybar. I just feel (again I don’t think I can back this up) like this is a big area of failure for the Rays.

The caller said the boy, after removing the bulb from its socket, left the building and threw the bulb on the ground. When the bulb broke, the caller said the boy screamed "I am the cat and I am here to steal."

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jul 17, 2010 9:40 AM EDT reply actions  

tl;dr

The caller said the boy, after removing the bulb from its socket, left the building and threw the bulb on the ground. When the bulb broke, the caller said the boy screamed "I am the cat and I am here to steal."

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jul 17, 2010 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

The post was too long and I didn't read it

The caller said the boy, after removing the bulb from its socket, left the building and threw the bulb on the ground. When the bulb broke, the caller said the boy screamed "I am the cat and I am here to steal."

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jul 17, 2010 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

Sorry....

I meant elaborate on “The rumors of how the AAA Club treated him are even more concerning to me”

Boom. Outta Here.

by Ryan Gilliss on Jul 17, 2010 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

I seem to remember rumors from Shawn Riggans saying that other players on that team treated him horribly and there was a big blow-up with the manager that may or may not have been Dukes' fault

The caller said the boy, after removing the bulb from its socket, left the building and threw the bulb on the ground. When the bulb broke, the caller said the boy screamed "I am the cat and I am here to steal."

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jul 17, 2010 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

Hmm...

I would assume that it was the 4A type players. If that is true, it is a huge failure of the FO to protect one of its more valuable assets.

Boom. Outta Here.

by Ryan Gilliss on Jul 17, 2010 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

Dukes is the most disappointing case in this clubs history in my opinion, but I can see why people wouldn't agree with that assessment.

The caller said the boy, after removing the bulb from its socket, left the building and threw the bulb on the ground. When the bulb broke, the caller said the boy screamed "I am the cat and I am here to steal."

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jul 17, 2010 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

Rays had a performance psychologist working with the team

He did some good work with several players, perhaps most notably Carlos Pena (right before his big 2007 breakout). Was with the team on and off from 2007 to 2009, but no longer contracted by the Rays. (They may have hired/contracted with someone new, however)

I explore this topic in the book, actually. Would note that no one could ever hope to reach Dukes, that Hamilton had a devastating drug addiction that a team of 100 specialists would have struggled to master, and that Upton is a very sharp, thoughtful guy who probably just isn’t as good as people believed him to be (that, more than some nebulous idea that his head is holding back his tools, is the key there).

by Jonah Keri on Jul 17, 2010 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I know teams employ performance psychologists and sports psychologists (see also: Garza, Matt). I just don't know that they are the best people in some of these cases.

Could no one hope to reach Dukes? He seemed to be doing well in Washington, but of course they wouldn’t have released him if he were spotless (would love to know what was behind that). I don’t think that anyone is beyond the pale of help, it’s just about how much time/resources/patience one has to do it.

My only point is that this seems like an area that perhaps if they spent the equivalent of a Dominican baseball academy on might reap some great rewards.

The caller said the boy, after removing the bulb from its socket, left the building and threw the bulb on the ground. When the bulb broke, the caller said the boy screamed "I am the cat and I am here to steal."

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jul 17, 2010 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

To go along with what the veritable TGN1 says....

if Dukes was beyond help, shouldn’t the FO have known that. I knew that there were huge red flags about him from living in the same area (4 HS’s in 4 iirc). That doesn’t seem like the kind of problem that throwing a bunch of money at an 18 year old would help.

Boom. Outta Here.

by Ryan Gilliss on Jul 17, 2010 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

I would add that Kapler should be DFA.

He made a nice catch, but if he didn’t get to it Swisher would have gotten a double with Upton being right there to help. Also, there were no runners on base.
Kapler faces one type of pitcher and still has a wOBA of .266. I’m all for the platoon but Joyce should have been playing right field or we could have had Brignac at second and Zobrist in right.
People can make cases for BJ, but not for Kapler. The ceilings for Brignac and Joyce are still high and they both need more playing time. I think their statistics are still too small of a sample size and will change with more playing time. Even though I want Brignac in as an everyday SS, I can still understand why Maddon gives Bartlett more playing time. However, starting Kapler over the talent on this roster when this is our all in year is mind boggling. Hell, bring up DJ to play right to platoon with Joyce. I don’t want to start his clock early but I do want the Rays to do anything within reason to win a championship.

http://www.baldwinsworld.com

by dray on Jul 17, 2010 9:47 AM EDT reply actions  

Not to argue with you (I don't really have much use for Kaps) but it was kind of a "last man off the bench thing" due to S-Rods poor choice of home fire safety equipment

The caller said the boy, after removing the bulb from its socket, left the building and threw the bulb on the ground. When the bulb broke, the caller said the boy screamed "I am the cat and I am here to steal."

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jul 17, 2010 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

Well...
if he didn’t get to it Swisher would have gotten a double

I’m not sure that wouldn’t have been gone.

Boom. Outta Here.

by Ryan Gilliss on Jul 17, 2010 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, it looked to be outta here.

The caller said the boy, after removing the bulb from its socket, left the building and threw the bulb on the ground. When the bulb broke, the caller said the boy screamed "I am the cat and I am here to steal."

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jul 17, 2010 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I don't think too many people are going to argue that (Cue RJ or Zoe)

The caller said the boy, after removing the bulb from its socket, left the building and threw the bulb on the ground. When the bulb broke, the caller said the boy screamed "I am the cat and I am here to steal."

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jul 17, 2010 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm in agreement

I’m ready to give up on his offense, and Zo, Joyce and SRod are more than capable of manning the corner. RJ’s recent comments seem to indicate his patience his waning too.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 17, 2010 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don't see RJ's patience waning.

Upton takes a higher % of extra bases than Scott Rolen has and Pete Rose did.
RJ’s tweet last night.

IMO this is kind of a meaningless stat considering the broader picture of those three players.

by terp12 on Jul 17, 2010 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

That may have been in reply to my pointing out some #'s which weren't meant to be a negative so much as enigmatic

Lowest WPA on team. 2nd in GIDP %, 3 of 31 in productive out opps with a runner on 1st and less than 2 outs, but an OPS in the same situation north of .800

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 17, 2010 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

I thought it was a tad short

from the close-up shot they had of it.

Not to detract from the play, however.

by FloridaownsFSU on Jul 17, 2010 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think that some changes need to be made with this roster

This is not a reaction because of one game.

It’s something that has been talked about for awhile on this board.

Cormier needs to be released and another reliever needs to be brought up

DanJo should be brought up and either Aybar or Kapler should be let go

Sonny's Baby Mamas - http://twitter.com/r_j_anderson/status/16590999556
http://twitter.com/jasoncollette/status/16590980428

by Sveet on Jul 17, 2010 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

It's time for Thayer to return

And I’m all for bringing up Dan Johnson at this point. I’d say “he can’t be worse than what we’ve got now”, but then I remember Blalock…and throw up in my mouth a little

In my day lots of messy tissues over her

by sternfan1 on Jun 18, 2010 6:30 AM PDT

by IntrepidX on Jul 17, 2010 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Kapler and BJ aren't close to comparable

BJ is performing at a disappointing but still valuable level, but as his salary increases so does his intrinsic value to the Rays. Its refreshing to see Jonah’s take on BJ. “I’m Done” is a bit strong, but racism and other factors should not disqualify Upton or anyone from rational scrutiny.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 17, 2010 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

"I'm done" is...

…me being a fan. Upton is obviously a useful player. Not like I’d advocate DFA’ing him.

Perhaps “I’m done expecting a huge performance spike” would have been more accurate.

by Jonah Keri on Jul 17, 2010 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

That's you being a "fan and not a computer"?

I was under the influence that you were a computer.

Boom. Outta Here.

by Ryan Gilliss on Jul 17, 2010 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

I know

Your stance echoed mine. Too valuable to trade for prospects this year, but with an increasing salary this offseason may be an ideal time.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 17, 2010 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

Also

Also, since I have nowhere else to put this: A very underrated non-move last night was not pinch-hitting Joyce and Brignac for Kapler and Bartlett in the 8th. Both would have been better offensive match-ups vs. the righty Robertson, Brignac is a significantly better defender than Bartlett, and Joyce is as good or better defensively than Kapler.

That was an apathetic inning of non-managing. Sure, Benoit and Soriano save that game more often than not regardless. But you don’t assume anything. Especially not against the best team in baseball.

by Jonah Keri on Jul 17, 2010 9:53 AM EDT reply actions  

Joyce for sure

I would have held Brignac out for a more meaningful situation. Without S-Rod, Joe didn’t have as many bullets to fire, so I was fine with that call.

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by FreeZorilla on Jul 17, 2010 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

THIS

I was watching the replay last night and was wondering why the hell Kapler and Bartlett were in the game.

by blackraven on Jul 17, 2010 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

Agree again

Kapler facing a righty in a high-leverage situation is akin to Choate facing a righty in high-leverage situation – It absolutely should not happen. Lazy is the best way to describe those non-moves. Maddon lost a little off his fastball last night.

by the jabber on Jul 17, 2010 9:59 AM EDT reply actions  

He most likely left Kapler in for bench depth

with SRod MIA, the bench was short, and taking Kapler out would have been a bit of a gamble

by Navi's_Navy on Jul 17, 2010 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

That line up we had in there last night

would have a tough time scoring v Charlotte Stone Crabs much less the NYY

I’ve seen enough Aybar and Kapler to last two lifetimes

by sternfan1 on Jul 17, 2010 9:59 AM EDT reply actions  

Are you serious?

This is as bad as the HRs are rally killers argument.

“HRs aren’t sound offense”

They had 7 hits by the way

Sonny's Baby Mamas - http://twitter.com/r_j_anderson/status/16590999556
http://twitter.com/jasoncollette/status/16590980428

by Sveet on Jul 17, 2010 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

You're right...

I forgot that Granderson reached by hit before Swisher’s hit.

I was arguing about SF1 valuing the HR vs. the manufactured run, which is contradictory to his statements in the past that we relied too much on the HR to score and couldn’t manufacture runs.

Boom. Outta Here.

by Ryan Gilliss on Jul 17, 2010 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

i'm amused at how many times i read her a comment that

starts similar to this, “i hate to admit, but…”
“SF1 is a $%^$ but….”

by sternfan1 on Jul 17, 2010 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

Does that lead to a moment of self-reflection?

The caller said the boy, after removing the bulb from its socket, left the building and threw the bulb on the ground. When the bulb broke, the caller said the boy screamed "I am the cat and I am here to steal."

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jul 17, 2010 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

I didn't say that

The caller said the boy, after removing the bulb from its socket, left the building and threw the bulb on the ground. When the bulb broke, the caller said the boy screamed "I am the cat and I am here to steal."

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jul 17, 2010 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

"Only fruits wear earings"

The caller said the boy, after removing the bulb from its socket, left the building and threw the bulb on the ground. When the bulb broke, the caller said the boy screamed "I am the cat and I am here to steal."

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jul 17, 2010 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

What lady is he read these comments to?
i’m amused at how many times i read her a comment…

Boom. Outta Here.

by Ryan Gilliss on Jul 17, 2010 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

"What lady is he read these comments to?"

The caller said the boy, after removing the bulb from its socket, left the building and threw the bulb on the ground. When the bulb broke, the caller said the boy screamed "I am the cat and I am here to steal."

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jul 17, 2010 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

Gillisspersonalinfo.txt

Longo! (Ah-a-ah!) Fighter of the Upton! (Ah-a-ah!) Champion of the Rays! He's the master of batting and defense for everyone!

by pudieron89 on Jul 17, 2010 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

That's not me ....

that is former DRB user WillisDaddy

Boom. Outta Here.

by Ryan Gilliss on Jul 17, 2010 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think Maddon needs a day off.

I hate questioning him because I wouldn’t choose any manager to replace him. However, he’s made some stupid mistakes in the last two games.
I went to the Indians game and the bullpen didn’t start warming anyone up for Wheeler until he gave up two hits and there were no outs. Sonny or Cormier should’ve been warming up the minute he got in there, even if Maddon planned to leave him in there for the whole inning. Wheeler allowed the Indians to tie the game back up because we couldn’t warm up anyone fast enough (a mound visit would’ve helped). Then his management of the bases loaded situation (not calling for the bunt and not subbing Pena, when he was on 2nd, for Bartlett).

http://www.baldwinsworld.com

by dray on Jul 17, 2010 10:15 AM EDT reply actions  

If you don't agree with anyone on this Website, why do you get on here?

Your comments take up too much space on here. Can we DFA sternfan1 to a Website with shitty analysis?

http://www.baldwinsworld.com

by dray on Jul 17, 2010 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

I believe he just agreed with someone on this website

Sternfan gets way to much shit here from people who have no business giving it to him

Sonny's Baby Mamas - http://twitter.com/r_j_anderson/status/16590999556
http://twitter.com/jasoncollette/status/16590980428

by Sveet on Jul 17, 2010 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

So he agrees sometimes. Sorry to make a generalization.

But I’ll make another one. He probably disagrees with most of what Keri has to say and Keri rarely posts on here. Sternfan1, can you give me Keri’s book about the Rays after you get done with it and hate it for no reason?

http://www.baldwinsworld.com

by dray on Jul 17, 2010 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

I always find this amusing.

sf1 may be heavy on the troll-ish behavior sometimes, but rather than attack him, attack his argument. Prove him wrong.

/chokes on own vomit for defending sf1

As you can always expect come from behind victory is when you least expect it.

by Buc Wild on Jul 17, 2010 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

I shouldve have made my comment on a different "sf1 sucks" post

but it’s all the same.

As you can always expect come from behind victory is when you least expect it.

by Buc Wild on Jul 17, 2010 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

BTW...

you know Matt Winn?

Boom. Outta Here.

by Ryan Gilliss on Jul 17, 2010 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

That's funny...

I went to high school with him. I was asking my buddy who went to wake if he knew you. He text me last night and said you were Winn’s cousin

Boom. Outta Here.

by Ryan Gilliss on Jul 17, 2010 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

Strange but true.

I’m trying to think of dudes from Wake that went to y’alls HS. Unless it’s a chick, and then I have a pretty good idea of one of two people.

by rglass44 on Jul 17, 2010 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

Attack his argument?

I don’t understand his arguments to counter them.

http://www.baldwinsworld.com

by dray on Jul 17, 2010 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

What he said was 73% snark, but he's agreeing with Jonah.

He just agreed in a obvi troll way. Doesn’t mean the point of the main post should be lost

As you can always expect come from behind victory is when you least expect it.

by Buc Wild on Jul 17, 2010 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

What?

http://www.baldwinsworld.com

by dray on Jul 17, 2010 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

He may have reached the same conclusions as Jonah...

but I’d be willing to bet he did not arrive at them the same way.

Boom. Outta Here.

by Ryan Gilliss on Jul 17, 2010 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

Somebody turn R.J.'s power supply on so he can respond please.

As you can always expect come from behind victory is when you least expect it.

by Buc Wild on Jul 17, 2010 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

Actually basing a performance on if he out-dueled CC

sounds very anti-saber to me

Sonny's Baby Mamas - http://twitter.com/r_j_anderson/status/16590999556
http://twitter.com/jasoncollette/status/16590980428

by Sveet on Jul 17, 2010 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don't think most fans would think Shields had a better day than CC last night.

It takes some belief in the luck of BABIP to think those home runs last night were not attributable to bad pitch location, or selection.

by terp12 on Jul 17, 2010 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think Shields has proven that him giving up more HRs then normal

isn’t a case of bad luck

Sonny's Baby Mamas - http://twitter.com/r_j_anderson/status/16590999556
http://twitter.com/jasoncollette/status/16590980428

by Sveet on Jul 17, 2010 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

Based on what?

6:4 K:BB for CC, 5:3 for Shields, Shields gave up two dongs with another brought back. CC got dinked and dunked a bit. 1 XBH

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 17, 2010 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

Boom

Maddon's Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.

by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT

by Doug09 on Jul 17, 2010 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

I do have to agree with sternfan that xFIP isn't the best way to judge Shields

He has proven time and time again that he is prone to giving up HRs

Sonny's Baby Mamas - http://twitter.com/r_j_anderson/status/16590999556
http://twitter.com/jasoncollette/status/16590980428

by Sveet on Jul 17, 2010 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

Here's the problem i have with Yield's defenders

they point to his cost controlled salary as a huge selling point, but what does that hjave to do with how he performs on the field where the game is actually played?

by sternfan1 on Jul 17, 2010 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

what is wrong with you?

have you ever debated a point in your life?

by sternfan1 on Jul 17, 2010 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, that is what is wrong with me. Thanks for pointing it out.

No one made the argument that you are countering. You’re delusional and enjoy pissing people off.

http://www.baldwinsworld.com

by dray on Jul 17, 2010 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

It doesn't affect on the field, but rather the fact that getting a similar or slightly better player is probably outside of the Ray's means.

Same with Upton. I don’t know the price of a win, but if Upton is a 3 win player, what does that cost on the open market? Then, what does he currently make. Odds are, what he currently makes is less than current price of a win, making his salary/cost beneficial to the Rays

As you can always expect come from behind victory is when you least expect it.

by Buc Wild on Jul 17, 2010 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

Why do you doubt BJ is a 3-win player?

He was about 2.5 last year, he’s on pace for about that this year (primed to regress higher), and he was worth 4.6 and 4.2 the two prior years. What causes you to arrive at your conclusion?

by rglass44 on Jul 17, 2010 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

This is why you're an idiot and a troll.

You say he’s not a 33-win player and have no idea what it means.

by rglass44 on Jul 17, 2010 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

thank you, i knew it was well below 3

because a thread at the leaders the other day and he was not one of them

by sternfan1 on Jul 17, 2010 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

Reading is fundamental.
He was about 2.5 last year, he’s on pace for about that this year (primed to regress higher),

by rglass44 on Jul 17, 2010 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

It's below 3, but it's also a half season. He's on pace to be a 3 WAR player.

As you can always expect come from behind victory is when you least expect it.

by Buc Wild on Jul 17, 2010 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

It's cumulative, you know?

It’s on fangraphs. Like was said, he was a 2.1 last year, 4.6 the year before, and 4.2 the year before that

Boom. Outta Here.

by Ryan Gilliss on Jul 17, 2010 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

so was mine

if you really believe thta getting two INF hits one because a bat went flying showed what a great hitter is, then i guess we need to end this argument

by sternfan1 on Jul 17, 2010 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

done deal, because by the world of saber players like Upton will always test out well, when a pair of eyes can see what he's really like

i’m a fan of his and would like to see some success, but last night’s snafu is hard to over look, you’re a better man than i to do just that

by sternfan1 on Jul 17, 2010 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

I did not overlook it...

it was one part of the whole game. You may choose to celebrate the failures of Rays players, I do not.

Boom. Outta Here.

by Ryan Gilliss on Jul 17, 2010 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

that's where you and i part ways

to gloss over it and act like it happened in the 1st inning of a 10-1 game makes me wonder how you evaluate a game

it was THE play that killed a huge oppurtunity for a Rays win—if he steals 2B, gets moved to 3B and scores, Soriano could have closed the 9th v the bottom of their order

by sternfan1 on Jul 17, 2010 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

"If he hadn't drawn the walk in the first place"...

you can live in a hypothetical world where BJ steals 2nd if you want. Carl still flies out to right after that. 1 out. Evan still strikes out. 2 outs. Who’s coming up to bat?

Boom. Outta Here.

by Ryan Gilliss on Jul 17, 2010 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

Are you serious?
if he steals 2B, gets moved to 3B and scores, Soriano could have closed the 9th v the bottom of their order

Boom. Outta Here.

by Ryan Gilliss on Jul 17, 2010 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

I have reading comprehension skills so I did answer it below...

he can say that those woudn’t have been hits if he wants to. A Rod was lost at third base last night, and no one was going to through BJ out on the single to short.

Boom. Outta Here.

by Ryan Gilliss on Jul 17, 2010 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

How about the freaking wet sandbox the basepaths were last nigh?

Wetting down the field that much should warrant a formal complaint. It was actually dangerous footing, and may have been the reason we didn’t send some players to the plate when trying to score from second on a single. Rodriguez’s slip at third while planting his foot was at least some redemption.

by terp12 on Jul 17, 2010 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

-.145 WPA

I would consider it valid, if i thought he really was curious

Boom. Outta Here.

by Ryan Gilliss on Jul 17, 2010 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

I could be very wrong on this, but if a win is worth ~$4MM

but he was 4.6 in 2008, 2.1 last year and has been worth 1.4 this year (I’m assuming I can assume a double here and say 2.8 for the year if he stays on pace).

This means if a win is worth $4MM, his 2.8 wins are about $11.2MM while he is getting paid about $3MM. Seems like he is still cost advantaged and we have him “on the cheap”.

Side question to a stathead, how do you reconcile Upton’s 1.4 WAR so far but -1.6 WPA? I know WPA takes leverage into affect, just curious on the comparison

As you can always expect come from behind victory is when you least expect it.

by Buc Wild on Jul 17, 2010 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

Was the salary/win comparison accurate?

Hopefully this will clear it up for some.

As you can always expect come from behind victory is when you least expect it.

by Buc Wild on Jul 17, 2010 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Easily

WPA doesn’t factor defense. BJ is good at taking extra bases and that credits to the hitter not the runner. Also GIDP and lakc of productive outs hurt WPA.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 17, 2010 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don't have my secret decoder ring to see through the obliqueness of your reply.

I responded to your knock on why people here defend Shields. We defend him because he’s on pace for $12 million in production while we pay him just $2.5 million.

Shields is the most well-rounded pitcher in team history, we should be grateful to have him for another season at dirt cheap. The fact that you call him “Yields” is an insult to his ability to eat innings and produce quality starts on a regular basis.

by Lurch's Lobbyists on Jul 17, 2010 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

His HR/FB% has never been above 11% in a season

It is 15% this year. His relative lack of GB and a relatively high career HR/FB rate mean he will give up more home runs, but to think this many is normal is a conclusion that can only be deduced by not thinking like a computer.

by Navi's_Navy on Jul 17, 2010 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

It was north of 11% in 2007 (11.1) and 2009 (11.2)

2008 at 9.8% was the only better than avg season

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 17, 2010 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

There's room for both

I love baseball. I’m a fan first and foremost. By dint of working on this book, I’m now a fan of the Rays (for reasons well beyond book sales or whatever).

But it is possible to attempt to be rational/use empirical evidence, while also cursing at a player for getting picked off first base in the 9th inning.

by Jonah Keri on Jul 17, 2010 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

Those TGN1 PJs are laying unused at the bottom of the dresser drawer...

The caller said the boy, after removing the bulb from its socket, left the building and threw the bulb on the ground. When the bulb broke, the caller said the boy screamed "I am the cat and I am here to steal."

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jul 17, 2010 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

well said Jonah-- i love all the new stats

but in the end i’m a fan, and when Upton’s game last night is defended by WAR and the like i need to sound off

by sternfan1 on Jul 17, 2010 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

No--we lost the game--i'm never happy when we lose

that’s why i post so much after a loss—i’m venting

by sternfan1 on Jul 17, 2010 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm aware you're venting.

I’m pissed too, though not nearly as much as last night. It was a terrible last 2 innings for that game.

But I don’t know what you expect to get when you come here. Yes, Upton made a bad play. Getting picked off at anytime is unacceptable. But some people here are just going to say, “sure he made a bad mistake, but it’s not the end of the world. He’s better than that, and he’ll prove his value at another time as has been proven over and over again.” And they’re right. He had a good night (minus the pick off). Got on base a few times and scored a run. He’s not going to go up there and go 4-4 with 4 HR. (though that would be friggin sweet)

by blackraven on Jul 17, 2010 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

I know how he is. He's just upset after the loss.

I think he’s focusing more on the pickoff than some of the other problems though. BJ getting picked off didn’t lose the game.

by blackraven on Jul 17, 2010 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

With the way the offense is, Upton could have been on 3rd and been stranded there.

No way to know. But what I do know, is that the game ended in the 9th without one of or our best reliever being used.

by blackraven on Jul 17, 2010 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

For Maddon to semi-call out his players last week...

for their performance on Fridays, he clearly didn’t have one of his best games this Friday.

Boom. Outta Here.

by Ryan Gilliss on Jul 17, 2010 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

I've been defending Upton to my friends and even random people.

But I’m kind of getting tired of it. Its probably my own fault for expecting way too much from the guy. Its just getting frustrating at this point waiting for him to “break out” like some people say he will. I still think he’s being crucified a little too much though, even if this is Upton he’s fine for this year. Worth the money, worth the defense, its just his bat that is a handicap for now. I’m not sure trading him and installing Jennings would even be a solution in a pennant race since he might not be much better adjusting to ML pitching. I’ll give him till the end of the year and if he’s still the same, trade him. If he blossoms elsewhere that would be great for him.

Additional note: Maddon made some terrible calls last night that probably cost the game too. Probably more than getting picked off in the 9th.

by blackraven on Jul 17, 2010 11:02 AM EDT reply actions  

Bat isn't really a handicap, so much as not a plus

Its a shame, b/c up until the pickoff, BJ was having a really good game. And yes busting down the first base line for an infield hit and aggresively going to third on a basehit count as a good game, not just doubles.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 17, 2010 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

Its a handicap compared to what I expected.

But like I said, I probably was looking for something that isn’t there in the guy. I have absolutely no argument, he had a decent game up until that bonehead pick-off. If he could knock that kind of mistake off, I’d be very pleased.

Upton isn’t the main problem of this team, however.

by blackraven on Jul 17, 2010 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

This is the reason I don't listen to sports radio is because I can't listen to them spew stuff like that
Upton isn’t the main problem of this team, however.

I’m not a staunch Upton defender like some others, but I still can’t stand people acting like he is a bad baseball player or a huge problem

Sonny's Baby Mamas - http://twitter.com/r_j_anderson/status/16590999556
http://twitter.com/jasoncollette/status/16590980428

by Sveet on Jul 17, 2010 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

Oh he's absolutely not a huge problem.

I’d like to see Kapler and Croms DFA’d immediately and pretty much anyone brought up/in to fill their position accordingly. If this is truly an “all in” year, then its time to act accordingly.

by blackraven on Jul 17, 2010 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed

Sonny's Baby Mamas - http://twitter.com/r_j_anderson/status/16590999556
http://twitter.com/jasoncollette/status/16590980428

by Sveet on Jul 17, 2010 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

I prefer Zobrist.

I hate people walking Longo with 1 out b.c they think they have a good chance to K the next guy

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 17, 2010 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

I been "done" with BJ for a while now

I’ve come to expect that this is the real him and he won’t ever be the BOSS I hoped/thought he would become. He is still valuable though but at the plate its frustrating to watch and then crap like last night happens. Still a fan but lowering expectations a lot.

by SRQman on Jul 17, 2010 11:40 AM EDT reply actions  

Oh also if Bupton leaves and finally "gets it"

I will just get more pissed because why couldn’t he “get it” here. It would just make this whole situation more frustrating. (Not that I do not want him to “get it”)

by SRQman on Jul 17, 2010 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Welcome to the Josh Hamilton experience

Maddon's Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.

by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT

by Doug09 on Jul 17, 2010 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm about done with BJ as well...

But to his defense, Rivera blatantly balked, and it should have been called. If you are stealing, and the pitcher balks, pickoffs do happen. The timing really sucked, but the ump really needed to call a balk there.

To clarify why it was a balk… Rivera clearly picked up his left heal, indicating he was going to the plate. Many pitchers do this when giving their best pickoff move….Rivera’s was blatantly obvious, and should have been called.

by td32 on Jul 17, 2010 11:50 AM EDT reply actions  

BTW... I may have missed it....

But is there any reason Kelly Shoppach wasnt standing on 3rd following Nick Swisher’s error in the outfield? I understand he is a slow catcher, but he should have EASILY gotten to 3rd with zero outs, and would have likely scored. Clearly, every run counts in a game like last nights, and the Rays did not take advantage of their numerous opportunities, while the Yankees did.

by td32 on Jul 17, 2010 11:59 AM EDT reply actions  

We could tear this game every which way but loose and make lineup suggestions til were blue in the face

But we lost and that’s that and I still have faith that the people in the dugout have a better clue on how to run this game then I do and they’re are where there at and I’m sitting in my easy chair just shaking my head laughing at this.

Can't we all just get along?

by St Longo Drew on Jul 17, 2010 11:59 AM EDT reply actions  

Also...

Carlos Pena is horrendous right now. His ab with the bases loaded and nobody out was a joke.

by td32 on Jul 17, 2010 12:01 PM EDT reply actions  

I was a little annoyed that Carl advanced to second in the seventh...

leaving first base open for Longo to be intentionally walked.

I guess that is probably asking for way too much though.

Boom. Outta Here.

by Ryan Gilliss on Jul 17, 2010 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

All this uproar about BJ

While Pena’s recent reign of sub-mediocrity isn’t touched on near enough.

I don’t mean on this site… it’s been addressed quite a bit here actually.

by Hatfield on Jul 17, 2010 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

B.J. is the hitting equivalent of Edwin Jackson to me

We hear about his potential and his stuff/tools, and he shows glimpses, but when you get down to it… he ain’t that good. And the same argument gets used against them, that they’re somehow dumber than the average player. Upton’s not striking out because he isn’t smart and doesn’t understand things, the same way Jackson doesn’t walk as many as he does because he’s too stupid to throw strikes(granted, this isn’t as prevalent, but I do remember some posts during a great Sonny-EJax debate that called Sonny the smarter pitcher when in fact they’re just different pitchers). It’s just that in spite of their worldly potential, and in fact BECAUSE of that tantalizing fastball or speed or raw power, that we tend not to think about their limitations.

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Jul 17, 2010 12:13 PM EDT reply actions  

I don't know if Edwin is the best comparison in baseball...

but because of their history with the Rays he might be the best for Rays fans. I think BJ has shown a lot more on a more consistent basis, but Edwin did have those flashes of brilliance that would make a lot of people think that he finally “got it”. I’m not sure now that there rally is any “it” to get.

I’m ready to say now that BJ is a ~.250 hitter with 15 homerun power that strikes out 25% of the time and plays a good defensive CF and has momentary lapses of focus and occasional glimpses of brilliance, I just don’t know if that is ever going to be enough for the people of Tampa Bay.

Boom. Outta Here.

by Ryan Gilliss on Jul 17, 2010 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm glad a respected poster but BJ's performance into negative context.

Seems whenever an outsider does they get mocked unmercifully.

I think Jonah Keri did a great job of taking an objective look at the situation.

The Rays may be nearing a point where BJ’s trade value exceeds his value to the team. With his salary quickly inflating, and his team control years dwindling, the gap between current performance and current pay is going to become close to even very soon.

by tallyray on Jul 17, 2010 1:24 PM EDT reply actions  

My comments in the GDT mirrored Jonahs

Maddon blew this game as well as other mental mistakes. We had some physical mistakes but that happens. The mental mistakes are inexcusable
I won’t rehash the ones Jonah mentioned too much
1. Soriano should have been in the 9th. If not him Wheels needed to stay i
2. Definitely needed to PH Kapler in the 8th
3. This hasn’t been mentioned but bunting Aybar with Shoppach on second, no out, and Kapler on deck was a bad move. Lost a ton of RE with it. Kapler isn’t exactly a sac fly, or really a hit guy.
4. Penas poor AB with bases loaded
5. Bj getting picked off

These are the mental mistakes that can cause a team to go from winning to losing. They are correctable and are unacceptable. Maddon needs to manage a lot better, he has been horrible lately.

Go Gators!!

by matthan on Jul 17, 2010 1:48 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

I'm just not exactly sure why there is such a rabid defense for a fringey player like BJ Upton

He is putting up a near replacement-level offensive line. Why does he require such a staunch defense and unlimited opportunities to improve? If there are other options (which unfortunately there are not internally) then he needs to be moved.

by wva on Jul 17, 2010 1:58 PM EDT reply actions  

What are your thoughts on Jason Bartlett?

Maddon's Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.

by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT

by Doug09 on Jul 17, 2010 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Because if you can find your answer as to why 95% of Tampa/St. Pete doesn't criticize or acknowledge how terrible Bartlett is, you may find your answer as to why Upton has (or had?) such a staunch defense and unlimited opportunities here.

Every community has their guy. It’s obvious by the past few days that the tide is turning on the Upton defense front.

Maddon's Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.

by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT

by Doug09 on Jul 17, 2010 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Pena batting cleanup

What about Carlos Pena batting fourth against CC Sabathia, a left handed pitcher against whom he has terrible numbers?

by pontormo on Jul 17, 2010 9:28 PM EDT reply actions  

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