Free Winston Abreu: The Anniversary Special
by Tommy Rancel on Jul 19, 2010 10:00 AM EDT
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PrintIn what could be an annual tradition for DRaysBay, the time has come to publically campaign for Winston Abreu. In 2009, the Free Abreu campaign was started after the right-hander dominated the International League to the tune of a 1.94 ERA/2.14 FIP. In 51 innings at Triple-A, he struck out 77 batters (13.59 K/9).
In mid-June of '09, Abreu was briefly called up by the Rays. He made just two appearances before he was designated for assignment. He was subsequently traded to the Cleveland Indians soon after. He would make three appearances for the Indians before being DFA for a second time.
Instead of accepting Cleveland's assigment, he opted for free agency and re-signed with the Rays as a minor league free agent. After the season, Abreu had surgery for an aneurysm, but was back with the organization in time for Spring Training. Since then he has been pitching for the Durham Bulls - once again dominating the IL.
In 35.1 innings so far, Abreu has struck out 52 batters. For the second straight season, his K/9 tops 13.0. His ERA is down to 1.53, and his FIP of 1.84 isn't far behind. He is handling lefties as well as righties (identical 1.84 FIPs), and has allowed just one home run. It has been the home run that has plagued Abreu at the major league level - allowing 10 home runs in 44.1 career innings.
Recently, both Abreu and R.J. Swindle had opt-out clauses in their contracts in which they could have declared for free agency. Luckily for the sake of organizational depth, they decided to stay. While Swindle's fate is most likely tied to the left arm of Randy Choate, Abreu is not a specialist.
A few weeks ago, I mentioned calling up Jeremy Hellickson for the sake of putting the best pitching staff on the 25-man roster. I wrote that half out of desperation, as well as knowing it was easier said than done. Hellickson is still developing and is a starting pitcher. We have no such caveats with Abreu. The only thing we have to lose with Abreu is time. He is 33 years-old and more than likely will not be improving in the coming years.
While gaudy Triple-A stats are nice to pad your minor league resume, they don't always translate into major league success. On the other hand, we don't need Abreu to be a sub-2 FIP reliever for the Rays. To make the call-up worth while, he just needs to be better than the last man in the bullpen - Lance Cormier.
I am a fan of Cormier (maybe the biggest outside of his family), but I understand bullpens. Cormier was good last year. His 3.26 ERA/4.18 FIP and 0.5 WAR over 77.1 innings were a welcomed addition for near the league minimum.
Meanwhile, things have not worked out as well this year. Never one to strike out many, Cormier has just 14 strikeouts in 35.2 innings. The lack of K's looks even worse when you see the 21 free passes he has given up. If Abreu can be completely league average and post an FIP around 4.20, then the move upgrades the team - which is the goal.
Matt Joyce, Dan Johnson, and now Winston Abreu...free the man.
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What were his major league numbers during his brief stint last year?
I seem to recall that he wasn’t that bad…
I'm up for giving Swindle or Abreu a shot
I was really anxious to see Swindle, but I was unaware of Abreu’s splits. Either way neither has to come up and be a setup man. They just have to be better than Cormier at this point, which wouldn’t be asking a whole lot. I like Cormier also, the process is even worse than the results so far this year. And it’s not like he has the track record to rationalize keeping him.
Cormier was great last year, but I think Abreu would be a welcome improvement even if his FIP is a full point higher in the majors
Cormier is nauseating to see come in for anything but mop-up and I’m sick of Maddon putting him in medium or high leverage situations.
Longo! (Ah-a-ah!) Fighter of the Upton! (Ah-a-ah!) Champion of the Rays! He's the master of batting and defense for everyone!
Its almost like addition by subtraction in that Maddon won't misuse a newbie.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Jul 19, 2010 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions
This team needs a LH in the pen
Choate blows as shown again yesterday and Friday
I’m all for a McGee call up
Why?
He’ll probably need to move to relief anyway, and it seems like he’s back to his old self.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
I should have phrased it "I think [the front office would think] that's pushing it."
When is the last time they’ve called up a legitimate prospect without passing him through Durham first? McGee isn’t there yet and he’s already pitched 43 more innings than he did last year. At some point I suspect they’re going to either lighten his load (bullpen → AAA → MLB?) or shut him down due to innings pitched.
by Lurch's Lobbyists on Jul 19, 2010 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I cant check the stats right now but hasn't Choate been good against lefties? Maddon lets righties tee off against him. thats the problem.
Regressing to the mean streets of St. Pete
by stpetelawyer on Jul 19, 2010 11:07 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
And he's been good in medium and high leverage situations
A lot of of the bad stats from from low leverage.
Yes
Which is why I’m against calling up Swindle, who turns most rightys into Albert Pujols.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Winston Abreu
I’m all for calling up Abreu. I saw him pitch live at the Trop when he was up last and was impressed with his stuff. Gotta be better than Cormier or Sonny. I realize that relievers are up and down as to effectiveness and Cormier had a great start to the season but right now Benoit and Soriano are about the only reliable guys down there. Even Wheeler got touched up the other day. I understand that Sonny is a mop-up guy but he always gives up at least one run and often at least one jack. It’s like batting practice when he comes in. Cormier hasn’t been much better.
D’oh, forgot about Balfour. He has been lights out this year. Monday morning post.
by learnedglove on Jul 19, 2010 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
DFA'ing Cormier is understandable but I think that I'd firstly prefer to see Sonnanstine optioned down.
In the low leverage situations that the two have been used, neither has been that impressive. In the mindset of maintaining organizational depth, optioning Sonnanstine seems the logical first step. Swindle can provide help for getting out those lefties (I really just want to see the oppositional disdain towards 50mph pie chucks) or as mentioned above, Abreu can hopefully be a league average addition.
As is the mantra of the Rays, one eye should be kept on the future as well as the present. Sonnanstine could be sent to Durham and inserted into the starting rotation. If he succeeds at that role again, the Rays have an alternative spot starter in case of injuries (other than Hellickson) and also they get to advertise Sonnanstine as a starter to other teams. This could make him more valuable as a trade piece next winter. Yes Cormier’s K/BB rate is horrible right now, but I like his career GB% compared to Sonnanstine and a regressed pitcher-friendly BABIP could bring those essential GDP’s back. For whatever reason, Cormier’s statistics scream out regression to me more so than Sonnanstine.
Ultimately we might see both Cormier and Sonnanstine removed from the 25 man roster this season, but firstly Sonnanstine seems the most logical.
Cormier is a fungible asset.
No reason to sacrifice the future to keep a guy around who’s production could be found on the scrap heap.
Yes, Lance needs to go
Swindle → MLB, McGee → AAA
Are they really going to keep McGee as a starter? His line is looking increasingly tasty, but what is the word on his stuff?
by Lurch's Lobbyists on Jul 19, 2010 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
His stuff has always been great.
It’s always been an issue of control. He seems to be regaining that after TJ. For the long term keeping him in the rotation is the ideal, but if this is an “all-in” year, I’d think we’d like he or Torres or Hellickson (or more than one) to help lock down the bullpen.
has his K/BB been better?
when we had the regular MLH, it always seemed like he was striking out a hell of a lot more than he was walking.
Longo! (Ah-a-ah!) Fighter of the Upton! (Ah-a-ah!) Champion of the Rays! He's the master of batting and defense for everyone!
It's about back to where it was pre-surgery
mid-90’s
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Thanks Brick. The concern was always his secondary pitches though...
I love would to see a recent scouting report on him. If he’s at or above where he was pre-injury, that’s something to be excited about. I still wonder how many innings he has left in him this year, given how they treat prospects.
by Lurch's Lobbyists on Jul 19, 2010 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions
If I remember correctly, Abreu's slider is a plus plus pitch that can put guys away, but his fastball isn't good enough
for major leaguers to lay off in the zone or to chase out of it. He can’t get ahead early in the count which means his best weapon is on the sidelines as batters can merely sit on the pedestrian fastball and lay off the junk. I’d rather have Tommy Rancel out there than Cormier at this point, but I’m not sure that Abreu is all that much of an upgrade. Thus concludes my annual “Winston Abreu is not a Major League Pitcher” comment.
The great thing about baseball is that it requires careful observation not simply attendance and it rewards the analytical person while consistently befuddling the superficial.
Help others while helping yourself by purchasing this Trade Deadline Primer:
http://dockoftherays.com/2010/07/03/2010-trade-deadline-primer/
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Jul 19, 2010 10:54 AM EDT reply actions
Please, anybody but Lance
Sonny's Baby Mamas - http://twitter.com/r_j_anderson/status/16590999556
http://twitter.com/jasoncollette/status/16590980428
Would everyone agree the Yankees and Red Sox are our biggest rivals for making the playoffs?
Take a quick look at what the great Choke has done v them so far this year. And SS is not an excuse because a sit LHP is never going to rack up many IP
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=choatra01&year=2010&t=p
What an enormous sample size
That’s like when Maddon starts Shoppach against a righty because he is 3-6 against the guy with a homerun. (disclaimer: love Joe Maddon)
Thats a lot of BABIP issues (mostly singles) anda few righties
but I’ll give you that 1 K in 24 PA is pretty startling
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Jul 19, 2010 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions
No because we have Benoit for the 8th who slays lefties
High leverage in the 6th or 7th is when Choate is used.
The great thing about baseball is that it requires careful observation not simply attendance and it rewards the analytical person while consistently befuddling the superficial.
Help others while helping yourself by purchasing this Trade Deadline Primer:
http://dockoftherays.com/2010/07/03/2010-trade-deadline-primer/
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Jul 19, 2010 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Bringing up one AB is no different than bringing up that one time you were right
The great thing about baseball is that it requires careful observation not simply attendance and it rewards the analytical person while consistently befuddling the superficial.
Help others while helping yourself by purchasing this Trade Deadline Primer:
http://dockoftherays.com/2010/07/03/2010-trade-deadline-primer/
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Jul 19, 2010 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions
of course i understand one AB doesn't reflect on how well he's pitched
but think about this, you only have one chance to make a good first impression
See below
http://www.draysbay.com/2010/7/19/1575465/free-winston-abreu-anniversary#42375748
The great thing about baseball is that it requires careful observation not simply attendance and it rewards the analytical person while consistently befuddling the superficial.
Help others while helping yourself by purchasing this Trade Deadline Primer:
http://dockoftherays.com/2010/07/03/2010-trade-deadline-primer/
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Jul 19, 2010 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Its the Yankees, they beat bullpens
You can’t expect to be perfect against them. Bringing in new arms doesn’t help.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Jul 19, 2010 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Sometimes yes
I’m not surprised we lost 2 of 3 in NYY. Friday was frustrating as hell, and Maddon made some bad moves all series long, but the Yankees will beat up pens from time to time. I’d just rather see them beat Soriano than Cormier.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Jul 19, 2010 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
What is means is some teams are harder to beat that others
He’s saying the Yankees are harder to beat, not the hardest concept to understand. Not that we will lose, but that we have a better chance to lose against the Yankees. Go figure…
All of our pitchers get killed by LH
When they miss location as badly as Benoit did on that pitch to Swisher.
The general point stands: Benoit slays LH (and RH and SH and aliens and mutants ….)
by Not Whole View Gang survivor on Jul 19, 2010 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
And Sori and Balf also experience good success vs LHP
My issue with Cormier is Maddon loves his reverse splits. Just b/c they are reverse doesn’t make them good. Its like preferring Aybar to Longo vs RHP b/c he bats from the left side. Sometimes ones inferior split is superior to someone else’s dominant split.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Jul 19, 2010 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Like Wheeler is more effective against righties than lefties
But he is still more effective against lefties than Cormier is. Plus Wheels looked awesome for that one batter, which should have meant something.
I wouldn't have any problem with leaving Wheeler in
I think I am the only one who thinks his numbers vs lefties last year was a totally fluke.
Lefties are OPSing .639 against him this year. SSS
.669 in 2008
Last year looks like the outlier
Sonny's Baby Mamas - http://twitter.com/r_j_anderson/status/16590999556
http://twitter.com/jasoncollette/status/16590980428
Yeah I think the increased effectiveness of his curve will help against lefties too
I’m he will be more effective against righties than lefties, due to his lack of a change. But I don’t think he should be considered a specialist to the extent that he’s being used as one. Maddon shouldn’t be so vehemently against using him versus lefties. His curve is nasty this year and he knows it. It’s an effective pitch against lefties too.
2008 curve usage: 5.9%
2009 curve usage: 15.6%
Wheeler's career slash-line against lefties:
.278/.345/.492/.836
I’d prefer he not face any lefties in high-leverage spots, especially not tough ones.
Well at this point Balfour and Benoit were out
I’m just saying he isn’t god awful against lefties, and is still more effective than Cormier.
2007-2009 splits vs lefties
.254/.317//.473/.790
Those numbers aren’t great either, but I just point them out because they are improved and because I think it is more relevant. How he pitched in 2003 doesn’t matter as much to me because he could’ve added a pitch or changed his approach. I’d prefer Soriano, Balfour, Benoit, and Choate against a lefty, but I also prefer Wheeler over Cormier. Unless it were a ground ball situation.
Facing Jeter thats more acceptable, and saves Wheeler in the gun
Once the second out is recorded, that went out the window.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Jul 19, 2010 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
He was horrible early in his career against lefties
Since 2005. He has only had 2 years over .800OPS vs lefties. One .812 in 2006 and that atrocious 1.020 last year
Exactly
Cormier has been so awful this year
vs LHB .321/.391/.444
vs RHB .318/.416/.485
So lefties are OPSing .836 off him, but righties .900. This means he should be in DFA’d. Not that he should be used vs lefties in high leverage situations.
Sonny's Baby Mamas - http://twitter.com/r_j_anderson/status/16590999556
http://twitter.com/jasoncollette/status/16590980428
Exactly
Sadly, I have very little confidence in any Rays reliever past the top four: Benoit, Soriano, Balfour, Wheeler. And Wheeler only vs. RHP.
by Not Whole View Gang survivor on Jul 19, 2010 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
At the risk of sounding like a tard, do you think part of that could be his ego, trying to force it to prove that he's right and has found something that others don't readily use?
The great thing about baseball is that it requires careful observation not simply attendance and it rewards the analytical person while consistently befuddling the superficial.
Help others while helping yourself by purchasing this Trade Deadline Primer:
http://dockoftherays.com/2010/07/03/2010-trade-deadline-primer/
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Jul 19, 2010 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
I think that plays some sort of factor
But I don’t think it is exclusive to Maddon. I think a lot of managers can be headstrong just because that’s the personality trait required of the job. I think there is some merit to that type of thinking, or at least I have to think there is. The reason I say that is because it’s either that, or he sees something I don’t see with Cormier. Because with Cormier, the process is as bad as the results.
I said the 1 strikeout was startling
Thats generally what Benoit is for.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Jul 19, 2010 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Why are you letting that cockstain get to you?
The great thing about baseball is that it requires careful observation not simply attendance and it rewards the analytical person while consistently befuddling the superficial.
Help others while helping yourself by purchasing this Trade Deadline Primer:
http://dockoftherays.com/2010/07/03/2010-trade-deadline-primer/
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Jul 19, 2010 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
He's not.
I just won’t let him spew his drivel without attempting to thwart it when I have the time.
when the Rays beat the NYY in a season series
i’m sure their owners, FO, coaches, players and fans will feel they’ve come a long way—except you
Only when the Rays beat the NYY in a 7-game series
In October will it actually matter.
by Not Whole View Gang survivor on Jul 19, 2010 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Of course it will
Then again, going 8-10 vs. NYY but 16-2 vs. Bal would help us more than going 10-8 vs. NYY and 10-6 vs. Bal.
All the games count the same.
by Not Whole View Gang survivor on Jul 19, 2010 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
:*(
Angels pitcher Scott Kazmir is taking a trip to a place he’s become quite familiar with throughout his young career, the disabled list. The official reason for Kazmir’s two weeks off is being referred to as shoulder fatigue by the Angels, but you have to wonder if he just didn’t pull a muscle in his neck from turning his head to watch the rockets opposing hitters have been launching.
Kazmir hasn’t pitched since July 10, and it was quite the record-setting performance.
He gave up 13 runs in five innings against the Athletics. Turns out that the 13 runs tallied against the lefty are the most against any pitcher in Angels franchise history.
It’s becoming old hat for Kazmir as he’s given up five or more runs in each of his last four starts to help him earn the worst ERA in baseball, at 6.92, among pitchers with at least 50 innings of work.
The Angels originally had no plans on taking Kazmir out of their rotation, as Mike Scioscia believed that his starter’s problems were strictly a confidence issue, but now it looks like they’ve changed their minds. It seems the team is hoping Kazmir can get his head right while taking a little vacation and come back to help the team win some games.
Which they’ll definitely need as they currently trail the Rangers by 4 1/2 games in the AL West.
http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/07/18/scott-kazmir-placed-on-disabled-list/
The great thing about baseball is that it requires careful observation not simply attendance and it rewards the analytical person while consistently befuddling the superficial.
Help others while helping yourself by purchasing this Trade Deadline Primer:
http://dockoftherays.com/2010/07/03/2010-trade-deadline-primer/
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Jul 19, 2010 11:22 AM EDT reply actions
Sounds like a similar "injury" he had with us last year
Except it was a quad last year, but you get my drift.
Yup, good thing he got that contract, because he's beginning to look like he'll have the same path as Mark Mulder
Shift Kaz to the right about 2 years:
The great thing about baseball is that it requires careful observation not simply attendance and it rewards the analytical person while consistently befuddling the superficial.
Help others while helping yourself by purchasing this Trade Deadline Primer:
http://dockoftherays.com/2010/07/03/2010-trade-deadline-primer/
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Jul 19, 2010 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
The sad thing is that the Angels can't trade him, because their fans will think it's a salary dump.
I hope you understand how provocative and irritating a statement such as "baseball is played on the field not on paper" is. It is the kind of moronic critique that anti-sabermetric neanderthals use (along with the unfunny "mother’s basement" canard) to debunk what they do not understand.
Their fans are smarter than that
The great thing about baseball is that it requires careful observation not simply attendance and it rewards the analytical person while consistently befuddling the superficial.
Help others while helping yourself by purchasing this Trade Deadline Primer:
http://dockoftherays.com/2010/07/03/2010-trade-deadline-primer/
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Jul 19, 2010 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Or they cant trade him
because no one in their right mind would want him
by BJ the Bossman on Jul 19, 2010 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I think we ought to give him another shot
How about Puffy + Matt Sweeney + Kap for Kazmir?
In my day lots of messy tissues over her
by sternfan1 on Jun 18, 2010 6:30 AM PDT
I still can't figure out
Why the hell he was left in long enough to give up 13 runs in the first place.
All is taken care of now
Rocco Baldelli just signed a minor league deal. Can you say World Series????
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