Jayson Werth, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, Adam Dunn: Who Excels At GTMI?

by Tommy Rancel on Jul 23, 2010 8:00 AM EDT

During a recent conversation with Jason Collette, he mentioned that Jayson Werth's slash line (AVG/OBP/SLG) with runners in scoring position has been well below average this year. It seems ironic the Rays would try to acquire a player to help "get the man in" when the perception is he struggles with doing so on his current team.

With that premise in mind, I decided to run a similar exercise on run production to the one I did earlier this week. This time looking at some of the reported Rays' targets as well as some DRB hopefuls.

*Please keep in mind these are simply this year's numbers and not an indicator of career performance

	PA/RISP	AVG	OBP	SLG
Werth	116	0.159	0.336	0.305
Fielder	118	0.18	0.381	0.247
Hart	106	0.267	0.349	0.489
Dunn	108	0.211	0.324	0.389
Scott	72	0.143	0.208	0.222

Based on slash lines with runners in scoring position, Corey Hart would be the best candidate for a GTMI upgrade. Collette's observation about Werth's terrible slash line with RISP is correct, but Luke Scott has been worse. Of course, we just saw what Scott can do when no runners are on-base, and that's pretty nifty.

That said, do these assumptions hold true when we look at situational data using base runners and base runners scored?

	BR	BRs	%
Werth	262	38	15
Fielder	282	23	8
Hart	261	50	19
Dunn	255	39	15
Scott	176	21	12

Looking at this set of numbers, Werth is actually league average (15%) in terms of base runners scored. One possible reason is he excels at productive outs (advancing runners) with a 36% mark (league average is 26%). This includes eight sacrifice flies. Once again, Hart remains captain clutch while his teammate, Prince Fielder, comes in way below average. Scott remains near the bottom - although with a smaller sample size.

The final category is runners on third with less than two outs.

	BR/3/2Out	Scored	%
Werth	25	12	48
Fielder	22	4	18
Hart	15	12	80
Dunn	27	15	59
Scott	17	9	53

Okay, now Hart is just showing off. His mark of 80% runners scored is well above the league average of 50%, and tied with Aaron Rowand for best in the big leagues (min. 15 runners). Conversely, Fielder's run production continues to be underwhelming. For comparisons sake, Fielder's 18% score rate with runners on third and less than two outs is six percent below B.J. Upton's 24% - a number that was by far the worst on the Rays.

Again, there are a lot of things in play here. I could list many factors in addition to the league adjustments, and the cost of players given up in an actual trade. Meanwhile, based on this set of data, Corey Hart would be quite the upgrade in the GTMI category.

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Comments

It's time to dial up "The Corey Hotline"

by Lurch's Lobbyists on Jul 23, 2010 8:14 AM EDT reply actions

Not that I put a lot of weight in batting with RISP

but other than Hart, all of these guys are way below their season totals. I would have to think that they are due for some good regression with guys on.

by ReyL on Jul 23, 2010 8:47 AM EDT reply actions

That, or they're all chokers

It does exist. For certain individuals, doing better or worse in certain situations is a repeatable skill. Just not for most guys.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Jul 23, 2010 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions

I'd still rather have all those guys than Hart.

by rglass44 on Jul 23, 2010 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions

This

by BJ the Bossman on Jul 23, 2010 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions

Career splits w/ RISP:

Fielder: .263/.406/.469/.875
Hart: .274/.338/.479/.817
Werth: .264/.386/.443/.829
Scott: .233/.350/.422/.773
Dunn: .231/.414/.478/.892

by rglass44 on Jul 23, 2010 9:12 AM EDT reply actions

I think Andrew really needs to help Amaro by taking the slumping Werth off his hands.

www.draysbay.com, www.bloombergsports.mlblogs.com, Twitter @trancel

by Tommy Rancel on Jul 23, 2010 9:23 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Agreed.

With pettite down, I see the Yanks out of the running. Anyone else that might have interest?

by rglass44 on Jul 23, 2010 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions

Looking at the BA and OBP of the 5 mentioned

Hart is more than likely to get a hit, while the others are drawing a walk with an open base. Granted, that is probably because the others are likely to hit a bases clearing bomb, but are these numbers from this year or over a few seasons?

by Blue or CONKZILLA on Jul 23, 2010 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions

Those are career numbers as the header suggests.

by rglass44 on Jul 23, 2010 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Sorry

I didn’t notice the header. But I think considering the topic, I’d prefer the guy that is more likely to get a hit in that situation.

by Blue or CONKZILLA on Jul 23, 2010 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Let's get Scott, For one he's cheaper and secondly we won't have to face him nine more times

by sternfan1 on Jul 23, 2010 9:26 AM EDT reply actions

I love, love, love Scott.

I’d be happy with any of these guys except Corey Hart Foundation.

by rglass44 on Jul 23, 2010 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions

Reasons Scott remains at the top or near top of my list is

AL East pedigree and the low cost of return.

www.draysbay.com, www.bloombergsports.mlblogs.com, Twitter @trancel

by Tommy Rancel on Jul 23, 2010 9:45 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

And experience DHing.

by rglass44 on Jul 23, 2010 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions

I like Scott

But at this point, I think if we are going to make a trade, it needs to be one that will make a sizeable difference. Dont get me wrong, I would love to have Scott on this team, but I dont see why we do that when Dan Johnson is sitting in Durham right now. He’s absolutely raking, has proven he can perform at this level, and doesnt cost us anything. If were going to go get somebody, go after Werth, Fielder, or Dunn (if he’ll DH, which Im pretty sure is out of the question), otherwise just bring up Dan.

by BJ the Bossman on Jul 23, 2010 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions

Fine.

Let’s just get Werth and Scott.

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Jul 23, 2010 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions

Ok deal

Paging Mr. Amaro, Brian Shouse has just been made AVAILABLE

by BJ the Bossman on Jul 23, 2010 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions

Give me some Werth: I love those sac flies. Productive outs are something we sorely need

We don’t have a problem with getting on base (6th of 30 in MLB in OBP), but we have a problem we getting hits (20 of 30 in MLB in AVG). So getting the man in is a problem via quantity of hits is something we can’t count on. We are middle of the pack in homers and pretty good in doubles, so the quality of the hit is in our favor. However, the quality doesn’t really matter once the guy is on 2nd or 3rd. With our speed, a walk very often turns into a ‘double’. This makes productive outs oh so critical. Being able to score w/o getting a hit is something this team needs to focus on.

We’ve seen far too many times the team strand runners out there. Nothing is worse than a man stranded on third after he got there with less than 2 outs.

Go Gators!!

by matthan on Jul 23, 2010 10:12 AM EDT reply actions

We're 3rd in baseball with 5.17 R/GM

So we must be getting some runners in since we’re in the bottom third in avg. Also, we have the scored the most runners from 3rd with <2 outs. I know our % is low, but not every team can be as efficient as the Royals. We’re also 2nd in baseball in % of baserunners scored and amount of baserunners advanced from second with 0 out. And we’ve hit into the second fewest DPs.

I know it’s frustrating when we leave runners on base, but this team still does a really good job of situational hitting.

That all being said, I still would like to add Werth and ditch Kapler though.

by ReyL on Jul 23, 2010 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Just to clarify before something attempts to roast me

Of course I’d prefer a homer with a man on 3rd, or even a double.

Go Gators!!

by matthan on Jul 23, 2010 10:14 AM EDT reply actions

Dunn is my preference

Biggest threat and still effective vs LHP. I love Scott as well, just not as strong vs LHP.

Dockoftherays.com

by Jason Collette on Jul 23, 2010 10:30 AM EDT reply actions

Dunn is likely the most expensive though.

by rglass44 on Jul 23, 2010 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Other than the two Brewers.

by rglass44 on Jul 23, 2010 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Prince is the only one we should even consider trading one of the Garza, Hellickson, Davis bunch

Go Gators!!

by matthan on Jul 23, 2010 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions

I dont think we give up Hellboy under any circumstances.

by BJ the Bossman on Jul 23, 2010 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions

the way I look at it the untouchables are

Hellickson, Jennings, Zobrist, Longoria, Price

the next list as far as guys who it would take a ton to pry away would be
Crawford, Brignac, Jaso, Soriano, Benoit, Shields

everyone else we shouldn’t be afraid to let go if it nets us equal value or better.

by Dbullsfan on Jul 23, 2010 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions

The Rays should give up less for Fielder than Dunn

Speculations put Fielder at about $16 million next year in arbitration. Sure he’s under team control for a year, but that number is hardly a bargain.

Dunn is free after this year. Offer him arbitration and he’d make much less than Fielder (by a few million) if he accepted, and the Rays would get draft pick compensation if he declined.

by tallyray on Jul 23, 2010 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions