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Jayson Stark: Rays Inquiring on Dunn/Willingham, Won't Sell Low on Upton

The article is behind the Insider pay wall, but here's the basic gist: 

Despite an eruption of rumors linking them to Cliff Lee, the Rays are spending almost all of their time shopping for bats these days. Two names sources say they've inquired about: Josh Willingham and Adam Dunn, reports ESPN.com's Jayson Stark.

The article then goes on to say that the Rays are interested in adding offense regardless of a player's position, and that they're not interested in "selling low" on BJ Upton. They state that the Rays would be more likely to move Upton during the off-season, as trading him now would leave them without a centerfielder. According to this article, Seattle is the team that inquired about Upton and the Rays have merely been "kicking the tires" with Cliff Lee.

In our trade deadline Handbook, we covered both Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham. Here's what we had to say about them at the time:

Star-divide

Josh Willingham:

Rest of Season Salary: $2.3M

Rest of Season Projection: .384 wOBA, 14.8 wRAA (~1.5 offensive WAR)

Contract Status: Eligible for final year of arbitration after 2010 season.

Notes: Willingham is a cheap outfielder that has great plate discipline (11.6% career walk rate) and provides some pop (.215 career ISO). He's been putting up a career year to date, posting a .412 wOBA and 2.5 WAR already. He's on the far side of 30, though, meaning that the Nationals might be shopping him around come the deadline. My main concern would be that like Hart, he's an outfielder with another year of arbitration eligibility and would clog the Rays' bench to a degree. Short term, though, you would be hard pressed to find another player that could put up comparable numbers for that cheap. 

Adam Dunn:

Rest of Season Salary: $6M

Rest of Season Projection: .396 wOBA, 21.8 wRAA (~2.2 offensive WAR)

Contract Status: Free agent after season; likely Type-A

Notes: Adam Dunn would be a perfect fit for the Rays - and the Nationals would make great trade partners - but Dunn has refused to DH in the past. Also, Dunn has played his entire career in the National League. While he is a better hitter than Pat Burrell ever was, you have to wonder if his numbers might slip a bit by moving to the AL East. That said, I would pursue him if he changed his mind about DHing.

I still don't want Adam Dunn stepping anywhere near the field defensively, but there aren't many other available hitters that are better than him (Prince Fielder might be the only one). If he's willing to DH - and to get off the Nationals and play for a contender, I would think he'd relent - I'd take him in a heartbeat.

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Carlos Pena's YTD WAR: 0.3. Dunn's: 2.2

Defensively, Dunn’s YTD DEFENSIVE WAR: -0.6. Pena’s? -0.9

It’s safe to assume that if you reset them both at zero, that Adam Dunn will be worse defensively going forward, but Pena is not making up for his defense with the bat. Dunn is the better player.

I hope you understand how provocative and irritating a statement such as "baseball is played on the field not on paper" is. It is the kind of moronic critique that anti-sabermetric neanderthals use (along with the unfunny "mother’s basement" canard) to debunk what they do not understand.

by kericr on Jul 7, 2010 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

*Pena's defense is not making up for his bat.

I hope you understand how provocative and irritating a statement such as "baseball is played on the field not on paper" is. It is the kind of moronic critique that anti-sabermetric neanderthals use (along with the unfunny "mother’s basement" canard) to debunk what they do not understand.

by kericr on Jul 7, 2010 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not saying that He's better than Pena.

Just that this year, he’s not making up for what his bat lacks with his Glove. Dunn’s bat doesn’t lack.

by Wade Davis, Pride of Lake Wales on Jul 7, 2010 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Never understimate the power of defense.

The replacement is going to be less ideal then if we got someone willing to DH.

by Cory Alexander on Jul 7, 2010 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Pena’s defense isn’t that much better anyway. Pena has been very suspect at 1B (more errors than Dunn over the past 2 seasons). His value right now lies in his leadership and how great he is in the community, not his bat or his glove. And the difference between a good 1B and an average 1B is tiny… it’s the easiest position in the game to play. I wouldn’t do it because of what Los means to this team, but I wouldn’t be interested in Dunn unless Washington takes Los.

by Jeffrey Borbas on Jul 7, 2010 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Pena's had two good months and one really bad one.

His overall numbers are skewed by the really bad one. He had like a .370 wOBA in April, .220 in May, and .400 in June. Which is the outlier?

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 7, 2010 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Pena did not have 2 good months and one really bad one.

He had one good month, one good WEEK, and 2 bad months including what he’s done so far in July. After that home run streak, he was below average.

I hope you understand how provocative and irritating a statement such as "baseball is played on the field not on paper" is. It is the kind of moronic critique that anti-sabermetric neanderthals use (along with the unfunny "mother’s basement" canard) to debunk what they do not understand.

by kericr on Jul 7, 2010 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

He's always going to seem worse because he requires less "good" events to put up a good wOBA

He can get away with more failure, because he continually walks and when he does hit, it’s for power.

And if one has a problem using stats to prove a point, then use your eyes.

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 7, 2010 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

easy

bat 7th when he sucks.
bat 4th after he hits like 1 hr.
enjoy the walks.
complain when he sucks.
do it again next month.

by Sticky Bandit on Jul 7, 2010 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

I know that you aren't being fully serious, but it's dangerous to play streaks

And if one has a problem using stats to prove a point, then use your eyes.

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 7, 2010 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was kidding

but that week is about as streaky as it gets

by Sticky Bandit on Jul 7, 2010 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Even looking at monthly skews the data

Pena is the type of players that is going to suck and strike out a lot and in bunches, and then hit a few homers. Then he is going to suck and strike out a lot, then hit a few homers.

It is what he is. He is consistently inconsistent.

At the end of the year he will be near the top of the league in homers and with good defense. Horrible BA. It’ll be a roller coaster ride to get there…like it always has been. This year is just a tad bit choppier.

Go Gators!!

by matthan on Jul 7, 2010 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

WAR doesn't measure 1B defense properly

It just measures actual fielding, not a lot of other important things like ability to dig balls out of the dirt or keep your foot on the bag. Those things it improperly attributes to the thrower. Not that it really matters.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Jul 7, 2010 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Teixeira had a negative UZR last year

No way he was below avg-1B UZR is almost pointless

PIZZA?!?

by Transplanted on Jul 7, 2010 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is true

and Dunn is an absolute butcher when it comes to scooping baseballs, at least as far as I’ve seen.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Jul 7, 2010 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

The question isn't Dunn v Pena

It is whether we have another player that could hit better than Pena. If we do, then Dunn plays first and that hitter is the DH. If we do not, Pena is the 1b and Dunn DH’s.

Go Gators!!

by matthan on Jul 7, 2010 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Dunn's defense is atrocious.

I really don’t care what a sample of 60 games says; having seen the guy play half of them he’s awful. He literally had a walk-off botched play this year. The Nats blew a game because he didn’t make a catch. He’s so bad.

by rglass44 on Jul 8, 2010 8:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

I like Willingham better as a potential acquisition-RHH, little more diverse offense

But Dunn is a big power bat we lack-cheaper too since he’s a FA, but LHH & DH-questionable.

I’ll take either though, but Willingham > Dunn if I had to pick for myself.

PIZZA?!?

by Transplanted on Jul 7, 2010 3:08 PM EDT reply actions  

This

And if one has a problem using stats to prove a point, then use your eyes.

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 7, 2010 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Get somebody quick

I can’t look at another game with Aybar and Kapler as our #4 and 5 hitters

by sternfan1 on Jul 7, 2010 3:40 PM EDT reply actions  

And that's a big deal? You PH for the pitcher

late in the game
Posada’s been a DH several times this season and the Yankees are doing just fine

by sternfan1 on Jul 7, 2010 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

On a daily basis of course not, but

no reason for Shoppach to sit v a LHP. I’ve seen this guy get hot and he can mash LHP

by sternfan1 on Jul 7, 2010 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Seeing as Maddon has ditched the DH for the sake of matchups several times already

I don’t see why we should be overly worried that an injury would force the issue.

by GomesSweetGomes on Jul 7, 2010 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Speaking of him, they should just make him stay home during road trips against the Diamondbacks.

I hope you understand how provocative and irritating a statement such as "baseball is played on the field not on paper" is. It is the kind of moronic critique that anti-sabermetric neanderthals use (along with the unfunny "mother’s basement" canard) to debunk what they do not understand.

by kericr on Jul 7, 2010 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Off topic some, but what would it take to land Lee?

Looking at Sabathia a few years ago and Holliday last year, it took a 25-75 rated hitter and a few C+ types thrown in. Would Beckham get it done with Seattle? Would/should we make that trade? What about Bartlett and a B rated arm like Barnese?

by ReyL on Jul 7, 2010 3:40 PM EDT reply actions  

What about Bartlett?

or are they only looking for guys they can control for 5-6 years?

by ReyL on Jul 7, 2010 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Probably more prospect-like guys

And year control guys-they have 2 SS already on the team in J Wilson & J Wilson

PIZZA?!?

by Transplanted on Jul 7, 2010 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Beckham isn't nearly enough

Davis + Beckham might do it.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Jul 7, 2010 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

What?

For a full season SEA didn’t give up that much.

by rglass44 on Jul 8, 2010 8:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

The article states

that seatle wants Upton.Yet all of you miss that point.The thinking is that seatle doesn’t need a centerfielder.The rays are worried about centerfield,thats the hold up and the reason BJ wasn’t out there for a few games before last night.

by Landlord on Jul 7, 2010 3:50 PM EDT reply actions  

It's all smoke screen, don't read too much into the comments

And if one has a problem using stats to prove a point, then use your eyes.

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 7, 2010 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Dunn, Willingham, Kila Monster, Scott, Kearns, Kelly Johnson, Adam LaRoche, Cust, Barton, Uggla, Ross

I don’t care who we get, but let’s do it for as little as possible and add a bat somewhere.

And if one has a problem using stats to prove a point, then use your eyes.

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 7, 2010 3:53 PM EDT reply actions  

tl;dr

Summary-MUNNZ NAOZ PLZ

PIZZA?!?

by Transplanted on Jul 7, 2010 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

OT

FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU

And if one has a problem using stats to prove a point, then use your eyes.

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 7, 2010 4:00 PM EDT reply actions  

+2

Though I’ve been lusting for Uggla since last season. If we have a chance at him…

In my day lots of messy tissues over her

by sternfan1 on Jun 18, 2010 6:30 AM PDT

by IntrepidX on Jul 7, 2010 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Don't fuck wit DeJesus

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Jul 7, 2010 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would prefer Willingham

He’s having a great season, could replace Kapler in the lineup, and is more flexible than Dunn is (less quesitons about where to play him in the field)

I don’t get the fascination people have with Joyce. Is it his mediocre play in Durham? Wowing people with his .295 avg? His mediocre power at age 26? Is it people just praying he’s good because our offense is so poor and we traded Edwin away for him?

by pudieron89 on Jul 7, 2010 4:47 PM EDT reply actions  

we could

and do, do worse at DH.

plus, I said do-do

by TallMatt on Jul 7, 2010 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Dunn should replace Longoria at 3rd

He plays a better defense and is exponentially a better hitter than Longo.

Honestly, Longoria is not as good as people think he is.

Leave me alone, I'm watching monsterjam.

by mrichardkent on Jul 7, 2010 5:33 PM EDT reply actions  

I was hoping we could unload Longo for Lee

Instant upgrade. Lee can play above-average 3rd base on his off days.

In my day lots of messy tissues over her

by sternfan1 on Jun 18, 2010 6:30 AM PDT

by IntrepidX on Jul 7, 2010 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sorry, wrong thread

Founding member of the Leslie Anderson fan club.

by staplemaniac on Jul 7, 2010 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

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