Rating The Starters' Pitches

by RZ on Jul 9, 2010 1:00 PM EDT

I've been too busy this week to write a lenghty post, but I have been able to classify all the Rays starters' pitches for this season. Now my handy database can easily compute metrics like run values and contact rates. Some brief notes after the jump.

Pitches	Number	Pitch	rv100	rv	Whiff%	Contact%	OTP%	Swing%	SLGCON
David Price	64	CH	0.36	0.23	3.1%	93.8%	51.6%	50.0%	.474
David Price	304	CU	0.17	0.51	7.6%	82.6%	46.4%	43.4%	.528
David Price	1039	FF	-0.82	-8.48	9.8%	79.4%	47.4%	47.5%	.466
David Price	297	FT	-1.72	-5.12	9.1%	80.0%	46.1%	45.5%	.353
David Price	126	SL	-1.79	-2.25	9.5%	78.9%	39.7%	45.2%	.345

James Shields	413	CH	-1.81	-7.47	22.8%	62.5%	37.0%	60.8%	.481
James Shields	219	CU	-0.43	-0.94	10.5%	75.8%	41.1%	43.4%	.333
James Shields	327	FC	0.13	0.41	5.8%	86.8%	45.9%	44.0%	.429
James Shields	574	FF	0.96	5.49	3.5%	92.4%	60.3%	45.8%	.720
James Shields	180	FT	5.73	10.32	2.2%	94.6%	42.2%	41.1%	.975
James Shields	8	SL	-6.16	-0.49	0.0%	100.0%	75.0%	75.0%	.200

Jeff Niemann	217	CU	0.62	1.34	12.0%	67.5%	40.6%	36.9%	.667
Jeff Niemann	196	FC	0.19	0.37	9.2%	77.5%	46.9%	40.8%	.537
Jeff Niemann	507	FF	-1.09	-5.55	4.3%	88.5%	50.1%	37.7%	.410
Jeff Niemann	158	FS	0.40	0.63	17.1%	72.2%	36.7%	61.4%	.579
Jeff Niemann	489	FT	-2.57	-12.58	5.9%	89.1%	51.5%	54.6%	.346
Jeff Niemann	7	SL	-8.76	-0.61	14.3%	80.0%	71.4%	71.4%	.000

Matt Garza	87	CH	1.58	1.37	10.3%	67.9%	34.5%	32.2%	.545
Matt Garza	153	CU	0.90	1.38	6.5%	76.2%	35.9%	27.5%	.529
Matt Garza	814	FF	-0.87	-7.07	5.3%	88.6%	48.0%	46.2%	.467
Matt Garza	414	FT	1.14	4.72	5.1%	88.3%	39.1%	43.2%	.548
Matt Garza	288	SL	1.23	3.53	18.4%	65.8%	37.8%	54.9%	.738

Wade Davis	64	CH	5.24	3.36	3.1%	93.1%	31.3%	45.3%	.750
Wade Davis	199	CU	-0.10	-0.21	5.0%	87.2%	49.7%	39.2%	.419
Wade Davis	893	FF	0.19	1.74	4.7%	89.9%	49.7%	46.4%	.603
Wade Davis	214	FT	0.83	1.77	7.5%	84.0%	35.5%	46.7%	.571
Wade Davis	171	SL	0.54	0.92	9.9%	78.2%	35.1%	45.6%	.452

*Definitions at the end of the post.

**If you cannot see the full chart, click the "Wide" screen option on the right.

Brief Notes:

Wade Davis's best pitch is his curve which he appropriately uses more than his slider.
Remember my article on David Price's slider for the DRB annual? Price has toned downed the usage but it has been much better than it was last season.
Yes, Jeff Niemann does throw a cutter, it is just a slow cutter (like Cliff Lee). But his two seamer isn't slow. Niemann can throw it harder on average than his four seam fastball.
Garza isn't having a good year. His slider is getting the whiffs if it isn't getting beat hard by opposing hitters (look at the SLGCON).

Notice anything else interesting? Want to know something else? Comment away.

Definitions: rv100 (run values per 100 pitches, negative good). rv (run values, negative good), whiff% (swinging strikes divided by total pitches, the higher the better), contact% (fouls and fair balls divided by total swings), OTP% (pitches over a 20 inch wide plate divided by total pitches), swing% (swings divided by total pitches), SLGCON (total bases divided by fair balls).

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Comments

Nice chart!! Have to take some time to study this stuff.

by terp12 on Jul 9, 2010 1:12 PM EDT reply actions

I'm still having trouble understanding SLGCON.

Is it meant to show us how hard a pitch is getting hit, or something else?

from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum

by BWoodrum on Jul 9, 2010 2:32 PM EDT reply actions

More specifically: I understand it's calculation, but not its application.

from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum

by BWoodrum on Jul 9, 2010 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Slgcon

Is slugging percentange on contacted pitches. For instance, when a hitter makes contact on Shields’ two-seamer, its usually crushed.

www.draysbay.com, www.bloombergsports.mlblogs.com, Twitter @trancel

by Tommy Rancel on Jul 9, 2010 3:04 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I know what you mean B Ray

I don’t believe anyone has actually done through the research on SLGCON and find that it’s worth something or predicts something (publically anyway). I actually haven’t gotten around to start using wOBA on fair contact which should provide a better weighing of the hits and outs. But run values is based off wOBA anyway.

Fuzz

by RZ on Jul 9, 2010 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Nieman's Four-seam vrs Two-seam fastball.

If he can throw his two-seam fastball with the same or greater velocity then the four-seam, why use the four-seam more? Obviously you can’t eliminate the four-seam from your usage because you need the deception between the two. However, you might as well lean on your better pitch more often.

Another interesting note is his whiff% versus SLGCON. His two best whiff%, ignoring the SSS slider, are the curve and splitter. Yet these 2 also have the highest SLGCON. My guess would be that good ones get whiffs and crappy ones get crushed. I’m curious to see if there is a relationship league wide with off speed high whiff% pitches and SLGCON. At quick glance it doesn’t seem to hold true for Shields. His highest whiff% pitches still generate lower SLGCON. Does this mean Shields is less likely to throw a “hanging” pitch then Nieman?

by kurby on Jul 9, 2010 3:54 PM EDT reply actions