FanPost

August 16th, Rangers vs Rays - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Rangers and the Rays using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.  Your ROI if you had used the simulator to bet baseball games so far in the 2010 season would be 2.25%

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Monday at 1:15 AM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 TEX TB C.Lee vs D.Price
TEX 51.22% 51.29%

 

Notes:  What a great game this should be.  As to of the American Leagues best left-handed pitchers face off against each other in what very likely could be a first round playoff matchup.  Both Vegas and the Simulator are in excellent agreement as to the win probabilities for each team.  Both have this game as pretty much a tossup.  Feel free take a swag at which final score will come in.  The distribution of game scores is very thin (not much difference between each successive score in the table below), so it is kind of a crapshoot guess.

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 TB 2-1   51 TEX 7-5   101 TEX 10-5
2 TB 3-2   52 TB 7-1   102 TB 10-0
3 TEX 2-1   53 TB 7-2   103 TEX 12-1
4 TB 1-0   54 TEX 8-3   104 TEX 12-2
5 TEX 3-2   55 TB 7-4   105 TB 9-7
6 TB 4-3   56 TEX 8-4   106 TB 9-6
7 TEX 3-1   57 TB 7-3   107 TB 11-1
8 TB 3-1   58 TEX 8-0   108 TEX 10-6
9 TEX 1-0   59 TEX 7-6   109 TB 11-3
10 TEX 4-3   60 TB 7-0   110 TB 10-4
11 TEX 4-2   61 TEX 9-2   111 TB 11-2
12 TB 2-0   62 TEX 8-5   112 TEX 9-8
13 TEX 2-0   63 TEX 9-3   113 TB 11-0
14 TB 5-4   64 TEX 9-1   114 TB 10-5
15 TB 4-2   65 TB 7-5   115 TB 11-4
16 TEX 4-1   66 TB 8-2   116 TEX 12-3
17 TB 3-0   67 TB 8-1   117 TEX 12-4
18 TB 4-1   68 TB 8-7   118 TB 12-1
19 TEX 3-0   69 TB 8-3   119 TEX 11-6
20 TEX 5-2   70 TEX 10-1   120 TEX 11-5
21 TEX 5-3   71 TEX 9-0   121 TEX 12-0
22 TEX 5-1   72 TB 8-4   122 TEX 10-7
23 TEX 5-4   73 TEX 9-4   123 TEX 13-1
24 TEX 4-0   74 TB 8-0   124 TEX 12-5
25 TB 5-3   75 TEX 10-2   125 TB 11-5
26 TB 5-2   76 TEX 8-6   126 TB 10-9
27 TEX 6-2   77 TEX 10-3   127 TEX 13-0
28 TB 4-0   78 TB 9-2   128 TB 10-6
29 TEX 6-1   79 TEX 8-7   129 TB 12-2
30 TEX 6-3   80 TEX 10-0   130 TEX 13-3
31 TEX 5-0   81 TB 9-1   131 TEX 13-2
32 TB 6-5   82 TB 8-5   132 TB 12-3
33 TB 5-1   83 TEX 9-5   133 TB 12-4
34 TEX 6-4   84 TB 9-0   134 TB 10-7
35 TB 5-0   85 TB 8-6   135 TB 12-0
36 TEX 7-1   86 TB 9-3   136 TEX 13-5
37 TEX 6-5   87 TEX 10-4   137 TEX 11-7
38 TEX 7-2   88 TB 9-4   138 TEX 10-8
39 TB 6-2   89 TEX 11-2   139 TB 10-8
40 TEX 6-0   90 TB 10-1   140 TB 12-5
41 TEX 7-3   91 TEX 9-6   141 TB 13-1
42 TB 6-3   92 TEX 11-1   142 TEX 11-8
43 TB 6-1   93 TEX 11-3   143 TB 13-3
44 TB 6-4   94 TB 10-2   144 TEX 10-9
45 TEX 7-4   95 TEX 11-0   145 TEX 14-2
46 TEX 8-2   96 TB 9-8   146 TB 13-2
47 TB 6-0   97 TB 10-3   147 TB 11-6
48 TEX 7-0   98 TB 9-5   148 TB 13-5
49 TB 7-6   99 TEX 9-7   149 TEX 11-9
50 TEX 8-1   100 TEX 11-4   150 TEX 14-4

This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.

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