The Lineup Protection Theory: Was Carlos Pena's DL Stint the Cause of Evan Longoria's Slump?
by PGP on Aug 20, 2010 1:05 PM EDT
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PrintCarlos Peña's DL-stint ran from August 1st to August 15th. In that time, while the Rays had a middling 7-7 record, the offense seemingly fell apart; the Rays scored a measly 58 runs which, while not terrible, was fairly bad. The team's triple slash line was an even more embarrassing .227/.331/.367. Most notable during this time, however, was a slump from Evan Longoria with his line coming in at a .246/.283/.386 for the 15 game stretch.
Slumps like this are fairly common in all types of hitters during 15-game stretch, but this one just so happened to coincide with the absence of the Rays' premier power hitter. Moreover, Peña hits behind Longoria and, as we've heard Kevin Kennedy adamantly insist repeatedly, he was providing "protection" for Longoria. This theory was given a little bit more credence when Longoria, who began smashing the ball promptly after Peña returned, himself went on to say that Peña's return had an impact on his performance. Many statistical analysts are skeptical of the claims of "lineup protection". However, was there anything to this claim?
The first thing to look at would be the source of Longoria's slump. Consider how his four factors changed during this time:
| Season | 8/1 to 8/15 | |
|---|---|---|
| BB% | 11.3 | 5.0 |
| K% | 21.5 | 24.6 |
| xBH% | 44.4 | 50.0 |
| BABIP | 0.339 | 0.326 |
It's fairly obvious here that Longoria's slump wasn't a mere BABIP fluke as they so often are. While he was still hitting doubles and triples, the walks absolutely vanished, and the strikeouts picked up a little. Something changed in Longoria's offensive game.
Longoria all year:
| Type | Selection | Swing |
|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 60.5% | 36.1% |
| Slider | 18.8% | 37.6% |
| Changeup | 11.5% | 48.3% |
| Curveball | 9.2% | 35.3% |
Longoria from 8/1 to 8/15:
| Type | Selection | Swing |
|---|---|---|
| Fastballs | 51.7% | 44.3% |
| Sliders | 26.3% | 43.5% |
| Changeups | 12.3% | 34.5% |
| Curveballs | 9.7% | 52.2% |
Longoria's fastball percentage dropped drastically, a full 8.8% drop. Pitchers were clearly pitching around him during this time, with an increase in change-ups, curveballs, and, most of all, sliders. Longoria was also swinging more at everything except the changeups during this time, although whether that can be attributed to small sample size or a true change in approach is up for debate.
It is clear, however, that Longoria's fastball percent dropped drastically. Pitchers clearly tried pitching around him, and so the protection will be crucial to his and the Rays success going forward, given Longoria's history of smashing fastballs. Even if Peña struggles going forward, his value to the team will be there in making sure that Longoria continues to hit.
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You make a very good case, except that in the HR category the slump
didn’t appear to be affected, because it has been there since June till the last couple games
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
While the homers have dropped a bit
This slump was a massive drop in Longoria’s walking rate, and I was wondering if Pena’s absence was in any way related to this
This is one of the cases where stats may not work as well...
you have to factor in Longo’s perception of Pena’s protection. I heard that Longo gave Pena a giant bear hug during batting practice the day he returned to the lineup.
RaysRev.com or m_weber on twitter
Clearly pitchers were treating Longo differently at the very least
That’s something that Longo’s perception doesn’t impact at all
Over a 15 game stretch, isn't it possible that these pitchers don't rely on the fastball as much?
I mean, heck, Shields and Hellboy seem at their best when they’re throwing fastballs around 50%
If we consider ourselves a master team then we have to act like a master team, not degenerates.
Follow me: @SandyKazmir, read me @ Dockoftherays.com, feel me whenever you want.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 20, 2010 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
That's a very good point
But over 15 games, Longo’s faced about 20-25 different pitchers and these things would tend to level out.
More importantly, Carl Crawford’s FB% was roughly the same in this time as it had been all year (62% vs. 64%)
How much also has to do with CC's slump?
If CC’s not getting on base, Longo’s seeing a lot less fastballs.
Speaking of protection, imagine what kind of pitches Longo/Pena would see with Manny behind them. LOL
RaysRev.com or m_weber on twitter
I've always been skeptical on the effect of protection, not on an individual wOBA basis
But on a true runs created basis by the lineup. We walked Miguel Cabrera all series long giving him an awesome wOBA, but it resulted in saved runs while Cabreras likely wOBA would have been lower.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
And with Maggs out Miggy has been on a HR rampage
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
RJ is also a huge fan of Gabe Kapler
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
by sternfan1 on Aug 20, 2010 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
And if RJ told you to jump off a bridge . . .
Just because RJ says it — or even Tom Tango — doesn’t mean we accept it as Gospel without examining whether it fits the data.
I’m a huge lineup protection skeptic. And yet I am willing to accept that in isolated, rare cases it may be real — like the game against Boston where Youkilis got injured and replaced by nothing, and the weekend against Detroit where the Rays walked Cabrera again and again and Boesch didn’t make it hurt.
by Not Whole View Gang survivor on Aug 20, 2010 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions
If Boesch had gotten a hit the first time that happened do you think the Rays would have continue to walk Miggy? Would you have?
I’m pretty sure Maddon would have continued to follow the plan, while I have no idea what you would have done.
If we consider ourselves a master team then we have to act like a master team, not degenerates.
Follow me: @SandyKazmir, read me @ Dockoftherays.com, feel me whenever you want.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 20, 2010 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Protection
I think a better question is: Did Longoria start swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone with Pena out of the line up? Maybe he feels the pressure to get the “Big Hit” when Pena is not in the line up and chases pitches but is more patient and waits for his pitch when he knows Pena is batting behind him.
Otherwise, It seem to me pitchers would be more likely to pitch around Longoria when Pena is not in the line up and Longoria’s walk rate would rise.
I dont think hed be looking for the "Big Hit''
Id think hed be looking for a hit in general, because thats what his job is to do. So yeah I can see him expanding his strike zone, and BB% not going up like it should be.
I'm not sure there really is a rock solid statistical way to prove lineup "protection"
I’m not exactly sold on the idea either way but as a pitcher you would have a completely different mindset when facing Longo when Willy Aybar is hitting behind him as opposed to Pena.
R.I.P. Scott Kazmir 2005-2008
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