We have our very own One Hit Wonder
by sternfan1 on Aug 28, 2010 8:54 AM EDT
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PrintFor those of you not familiar with the term one hit wonder it came out of the music industry in the late 50's and early 60's and as the phrase suggests, it described an artist who had but one smash hit and never did anything of note again.
Well Rays fans, sadly Ben Zobrist is our very own one hit wonder. I need not detail his outstanding season of 2009 where he mashed 27 HR and had an OPS well over 900, played an excellent defense and was considered a steal in the Aubrey Huff deal..
And then it happened the calender turned to 2010. His slash line is251/356/354 a sparkling 711 OPS.
He has but 28 XBH compared to 65 last year. Take out but one month and here are his OPS numbers:
April 683
June 735
July 640
August 487
In those months his HR totals are 0,1,1 and 1. Want more?
His OPS with 2 out and RISP is 672
His high leverage OPS a whopping613
And the beauty of all this, the Rays have committed $17 million dollars to this Nick Green clone over the next three seasons
This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.
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this just in--August does
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
Nor May apparently
Maddon's Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.
by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT
3rg grade reading escape you?
“Take out but one month”
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Oh cool, "take out but one month". What happened that month?
Maddon's Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.
by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT
Season started in March
As far as I know, the months go March, April, MAY, June, July, August, September.
Season started April 6th
Maddon's Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.
by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT
oh right spring training =/
too early today
.330 wOBA above avg defense
ISO in a slump after two good years, he’s worthless like your gregorian calendar.
r_j_anderson (on fungible assets)
"@TRancel @Marc_Normandin @ehahmann AKA free talent. Not great talent, mind you, but essentially free."
by CubFanRaysaddict on Aug 28, 2010 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Yawn
at least you used spell checker, i’m glad you didn’t let the fly in your metamucil get you too down.
r_j_anderson (on fungible assets)
"@TRancel @Marc_Normandin @ehahmann AKA free talent. Not great talent, mind you, but essentially free."
by CubFanRaysaddict on Aug 28, 2010 9:34 AM EDT reply actions
And sadly by exyending this weakstick the Rays have identified him as a core player moving forward
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
Here's another Rays mistake
Longoria is all hype
about 10 hours ago via web
Maddon's Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.
by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT
In the biggest game thus far have you seen worse ABs than those Longoria gave you?
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
keep telling yourself that after the Red Sox sweep us on Sunday
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
Or 1/54
Yeah, Zobrist should be DFA’d. No one would be interested in him.
I think his issue is playing through a back injury. He probably should have been on the DL for a while…
Last night was not the biggest game of the season
by GomesSweetGomes on Aug 28, 2010 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions
We started tied for first, and finished tied for first
The only way you could begin to justify a statement like that would be if you assumed that:
1. Boston will sweep us this time AND next series as well.
2. With their depleted roster, they will play as good or better than the Rays in all non head-to-head games, despite a much tougher schedule.
3.. As a result of the spark they found last night they will end up ahead of us in the standings.
If those 2 things, which have roughly a 2-3% chance of happening occur, then yes, last night was the most important game of the year. But they won’t, and last night will be inconsequential in the grand scheme of things.
Rays 8
Boston 5
by GomesSweetGomes on Aug 28, 2010 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions
3 things
I conveniently left one thing out
by GomesSweetGomes on Aug 28, 2010 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions
An infield of SRods
would still walk less than Ben Zobrist
by GomesSweetGomes on Aug 28, 2010 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Can we get an article on why Jason Bartlett is down .204 OPS since last year?
Maybe some diminishing defense added?
Maddon's Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.
by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT
Go ahead, get out your crayolas and write one
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
Nevermind, I thought you were in the business of calling out One Hit Wonders who's OPS has dropped .200+ from one season to another.
Maddon's Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.
by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT
by Doug09 on Aug 28, 2010 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
thats not his entire season
yes those months have been bad, but he was 352/400/514 in the month that was conveniently left out
show me where the fuck i said he had a great season
and removing data to prove a point is exactly skewing numbers
I didn't 'conveniently' leave it out. I stated 'except for one month' in my post
Also, it’s four months not three, of the five played this far that he’s stunk up the joint
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
sure it does, it makes him look decent for any period of time
when obviously he is a terrible player and should be dfa’d immediately, if not sooner
How old are you MM? I kind of give Doug a pass cause he's young
but if you’re above 21 you are really pretty naive
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
I don't get what you are saying
Y Betancourt has a .941 OPS in August. Better then Zobrists May. Lots of bad players can have one great month.
I’m not saying Zobrist is a bad player. I’m just saying you can’t point to May and say he has had a good season when he has been terrible every other month.
again, show me where i said he has had a good season?
oh wait you can’t, because i didn’t say that.
sf1 left it out because he doesn’t like to show anything that is positive.
which is exactly what he did
but he never will, hence the arbitrary usage of “since june 1st” or “not counting such and such month” whenever he cites stats to prove whatever point he is trying to make
he isnt going to stop doing it anyways
I don't mind the use of arbitrary start points as long as it's big enough to provide a decent sample size
June 1st provide 3 months. I think it’s relevant. You can’t totally discount what a player did before that though
but when every game counts the same as every other game
the data he is leaving out is relevant
zobrist is having a bad year, this isn’t news to anyone
one month of good batting didn’t really affect it all that much but he did have that good month anyways
He had a 914 OPS in May--fine, beautiful--but one early month doesn't make a season
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
Exactly. I don't hate on him. How could you?
I felt a need to call him out because of the love he gets here, in spite of having a horrible offensive season
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
aside from the fact that people are commenting that he is a well above average defender (which he is)
i dont think anyone can argue that his offense hasn’t been a disappointment when compared to last season totals
Without last year's stats, this guy might be in Durham
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
aside from opsing 844 in 200 ab's in 2008 i guess
now we don’t count entire season’s worth of productions?
I think it's more than that. No one expected him to replicate last year
He has been dissappointing to even those who had tempered expectations
Right again Sweet
i’d hoped for a 285/385/415 slash with 16-20 bombs
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
I'm not trying to bash Zobrist
I like Ben. I think he is valuable, but I’m also not going to argue that there aren’t any concerns with his play this year.
Where did all his power go? That’s much more concerning then the BA drop to me.
For MM to say i'm skewing numbers is ludicrous
I clearly state his overall numbers, and tell you he had one good month
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yes its ludicrous that i call you out for omitting data points when displaying stats for this season
eventually in this thread you did say “yeah he had a good month” but it was not in your original post
you said “taking out one month” not “taking out his best month of the season” etc.
stop being a dick
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
by sternfan1 on Aug 28, 2010 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
His power numbers are down, no one will deny that, but is this his true power level? No.
2004 — .463 SLG% in 257 AB’s (Minors)
2005 — .443 SLG% in 388 AB’s (Minors)
2006 — .456 SLG% in 384 AB’s (Minors) / .311 SLG% in 183 AB’s (Majors)
2007 — .455 SLG% in 222 AB’s (Minors) / .206 SLG% in 97 AB’s (Majors)
2008 — .541 SLG% in 85 AB’s (Minors) / .505 SLG% in 198 AB’s (Majors)
2009 — .543 SLG% in 501 AB’s (Majors)
2010 — .354 SLG% in 426 AB’s (Majors)
Just like .500+ SLG% is not Ben Zobrist, neither is .354 SLG%. There is no doubt he’s been disappointing this year, but to think this is his true talent level and to label him a one hit wonder is absurd.
Maddon's Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.
by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT
What a change in expectations
The last two years when Ben was at bat I expect that something good was about to happen. Now I just look to see who is up next in the lineup. It is painful to see him at the bottom of the lineup with Kapler or DJ or BJ. You know nothing is going to happen in that inning, just wait til the next. (with recent exception for BJ was has been OK)
His spray charts look comparable to last years
I’m not ready to write off his power as an ISO in the 180-200 region yet. ZiPS ROS projects a 165 ISO itself
Zobrist has a .330 wOBA for the season.
Jason Bartlett is at .306.
You’re right. It’s a good thing the Rays didn’t extend that one hit wonder Bartlett. Who knows how much his agent would’ve stole from us.
Let's get tons of league average guys, commit millions of dollars to them and try and compete in the ALE
At full strength where does Ben Zobrist play for the NYY, BOS or TEX?
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
Zobrist isn't league average overall.
He’s league average at hitting and above average at defense and baserunning. Ergo, above average. He’s not being paid that well either. I’m really not sure why you’re ragging on him so much. He’s had a rough few weeks. It happens.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 28, 2010 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
He's had more than a rough few weeks
I’m not ready to call him a one hit wonder quite yet, but I’m also ready to relegate him to the bench for this season, provided Hawpe can hit decently enough at DH. A Crawford-Upton-Joyce OF is an upgrade right now.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
That's the problem with the saber space boys
there is always one stat that redeems the player in question. As i clearly state his defense is good, and he had one good month, but to be so smug and say he’s had a “few bad weeks” diminishes any credence to anything one says
I gave the numbers above of the FOUR months of just plain awful offense
It is what it is
Go Hawpe
Oddly RJ’s been tweeting all day how good Hawpe is
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
Not convinced Hawpe will be a .380 wOBA guy with us.
But he’s always hit righties and he’s not going to be playing defense. At $100k you’d have to be pretty awful for me to think it’s a waste of money. Plus I’m pretty sure we’re going to juggle the roster spots so that Johnson sticks around too.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 28, 2010 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Woof.
Sterny step your game up, you just got outfoxed.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 28, 2010 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't even know where to start here
1) That outfield already plays versus righties. Everyday without fail and with Zobrist in the lineup too. I’m a Joyce fan but I don’t think he’s better versus lefties than Zobrist right now.
2) No, it’s a few bad weeks:
Zobrist’s wOBA by month:
April: .320 (wRC+ 100)
May: .398 (152)
June: .345 (116)
July: .329 (106)
August: .230 (38)
He’s had a horrendous August. Otherwise he’s been average or above in each month. Even OPS suggests he’s been about average or better in each month. July he walked 20% of the time. If OPS accurately weighed that, he’d be average-or-above then too.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 28, 2010 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
When wOBA weights BB as high as it does, it skews the entire stat as far as i'm concerned
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
SF1 weights
single > productive out > swinging strike three > watching strike three and getting ejected arguing > GIDP > walk > watching strike 3 and walking back to the dugout
Basically you’re saying “If it disproves my point, the stat is obviously skewed.”
by GomesSweetGomes on Aug 28, 2010 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions
As high as it does?
It weighs walks less than singles or any other hit variety. wOBA weighs OBP equal to SLG, OPS doesn’t because of the odd idea that OBP is on a .000-1.000 scale whereas SLG is on a .000-4.000 scale.
I’m not really sure how you can argue that it weighs it too highly when it uses real world results to weigh it in the first place. This isn’t an arbitrary formula or random numbers plucked out of the sky.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 28, 2010 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions
This is false. Sorry sterny.
BBs are the lowest rated part of wOBA. And again, if you don’t like it, look at OPS…same story.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
by Steve Slowinski on Aug 28, 2010 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Is he average compared to a starting RF?
Seriously RJ, if he was playing 2B this year, that would be perfectly acceptable. A .330ish wOBA is poor for a major league starting right fielder.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Not according to RJ--that's 'old school' thinking
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
Can anyone deny?
That Zobrist is having a bad year…why the anger out of May not being included in the argument. It’s ok to look at the distribution of numbers and leave out the outlier.
When looking at Zobrist, he has been consistent in one aspect and that is in the negative direction. If you were to do a trend analysis, you’d discount the one month as a peak and follow his numbers in a downward trend.
Sterns post says the same thing that a mathematical graph would show.
Our best hope for Zobrist is that he finds it in Sept/Oct like BJ did in post-season 2008.
Zobrist needs a season reset…he isn’t the first guy to have a “sophmore slump” and he won’t be the last.
I don't think he's having a bad year at all.
He’s going to finish with about half the WAR total as last year. This is what I wrote for the FG annual:
Year in Review: Well, that was unexpected. Zobrist started the season as the super utility guy off the bench. He played some short, second, and outfield while being used as a pinch hitter. Zobrist began launching homers in important situations, and an injury to Akinori Iwamura opened the door for more consistent playing time. Zobrist took advantage and found himself playing in his first career All-Star game. Combine a top-5 AL OPS with fantastic defense and Zobrist actually lead the league in WAR. Go back and reread that last sentence. Yep, it really happened.
The Year Ahead: With Iwamura elsewhere, Zobrist should enter the season as the starting second baseman. Expecting him to replicate his 2009 season is a bit much. Heck, 50% retention would be a good season by most standards. Odds are his fantasy value will be inflated because of how good he was last year, and while this is by no means saying he’s turning back into a pumpkin, it’s just hard to see a first- or second-round pick being worthwhile given the potential flukiness of such an extraordinary campaign. (R.J. Anderson)
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 28, 2010 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions
So now you turn to fantasy baseball to help make your case--what next?
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Huh?
The 50% statement is about his WAR. That’s what the historical examples of a blow-up seasons showed, about a 50% retention rate. That’s exactly what he’s aiming for. I didn’t think his power was legit whatsoever, but yeah this ISO is a bit disappointing. Overall, though? I think anyone who wants him benched/cut/demoted doesn’t know what they’re talking about.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 29, 2010 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Because some criticized me for sherry picking his bad numbers, which of course is crazy
I decided to split his season in two and the facts are more alarming
Zobrist has appeared in 119 games, so 60 or 6/12/10 is his halfway point
Since that point his numbers read like so
188/336/248 for a whopping 583 OPS
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
and his wOBA during that same 1/2 year period a sparkling 306 appx
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Glad you're not 'Sherry' picking anymore
sweep….
r_j_anderson (on fungible assets)
"@TRancel @Marc_Normandin @ehahmann AKA free talent. Not great talent, mind you, but essentially free."
by CubFanRaysaddict on Aug 29, 2010 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Zobrist is having an okay season, but his offensive numbers are not what we'd expect
Different portions of his game are making up the slack, but the lack of pop is concerning.
Go Gators!!
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