J.D.'s Decision: To Catch the Ball, or to Not Catch the Ball?
by PGP on Aug 30, 2010 10:00 AM EDT
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J.D. Drew was faced with a decision two days ago.
In a 3-2 count with Matt Joyce up and Dan Johnson on deck, the Red Sox had a 1-0 lead in the 7th inning with Carlos Pena on third and 1 out. When Matt Joyce hit a fly ball deep into foul territory, J.D. Drew could've either let it drop and have Clay repeat the pitch, or he could've caught it and let the Rays tie the game. J.D. took the latter option and caught the ball, and surely enough, Carlos Pena tagged up and scored with no difficulty. Although JD later said that he meant to drop the ball, that's not how things ended up happening. Let's take a look at which was the right move, what J.D. meant to do, or what he actually did.
We all know how the game ended, and in hindsight obviously Drew would rather have not caught the ball, but at the time, which was the mathematically optimal decision? The win expectancy for the Rays before the catch was 47.6% and after moved to 52.2%. On the surface, this looks like an immediate win for a Tampa Bay offense that had been struggling horribly, but it's not quite so simple. With a little ignoring of certain contextual elements and crude approximations, we can take a closer look at this decision.
The Run Expectancy in that situation was .983. This isn't an accurate representation here, however, because Matt Joyce was up to bat. Matt Joyce is an above-average hitter, and so the Run Expectancy is actually slightly higher than what it appeared to be. Adjusting his .398 wOBA against right-handed pitchers to a run expectancy scale suggests that in this situation, he's .061 runs above average. Suddenly the run expectancy becomes 1.044.
Another consideration that needs to be factored in here is that Clay Buchholz is pitching in front of the Boston defense. His xFIP is actually slightly worse than league average right now despite his shiny ERA, and given his career 10.2 HR/FB%, it's fair to regress his projected ERA going forward to league average. Fortuitously, the Red Sox defense also grades out as roughly league average according to UZR, so the effect of Buchholz and the Red Sox on the run expectancy is nearly negligible then.
The final consideration is the count. The count in that situation was a hitter friendly 3-2 full count. The Run Expectancy in full counts has been found to be .035 runs above average. We can now adjust the run expectancy of the situation before the fly ball goes to JD to be 1.079.
So was JD's decision justified? The adjusted run expectancy before the catch was 1.079, and after the catch it was 1.117. It looks like JD Drew's decision to catch the ball cost his team approximately .038 runs. An impact like that is marginal, and in the split seconds JD Drew had to decide whether or not to catch the ball, he didn't exactly have a chance to consult the run expectancy tables. Still, it appears that JD's accidental catching of the ball was not the right move.
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The thought of all of that going through JD Drew's mind just made me laugh...
Actually, I’m of the opinion that you always go for the out unless it was the game winning run. Dropping it and Joyce hitting a 2-run dinger would’ve been much worse. And I’m sure the baseball karma gods would not have smiled on Drew dropping an out.
RaysRev.com or m_weber on twitter
Red Sox fanbase is crucifying Drew over this.
I personally would never blame Drew for this. The fault for this one falls on Bucholz. The stupid errant throw on a pickoff attempt is the play that set this up. If not for that no one would be analyzing “To Catch or Not to Catch”.
No one is putting the blame where it lies, in this instance squarely on Bucholz.
"Geno Hayes sucks though
He is one notch above Sabby Piscatelli
by Sveet on Dec 1, 2009 12:34 PM EST"
by PewterPirate55 on Aug 30, 2010 10:13 AM EDT reply actions
Buchholtz was told to throw over to 1st by the coaching staff
Why were they so concerned about Pena stealing when he had a lead of about 5 feet?
It did not look like such an errant PO throw to me – Lowell might have been able to catch it, although that might have been a good athletic play to do so. So I see 4 levels of fail:
1) Red Sox coaching telling Buchholtz to throw oveer to 1st
2) Back PO throw
3) Not catching the PO throw
4) then Drew’s catch…
I thought immediately it was a bad move to catch it, but I admit that the situation is not black/white.
by tampa_edski on Aug 30, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Do you think there's any other factors other than the ones up there?
I guess I could factor in peña’s baserunning but then things get a little less concrete
by PGP on Aug 30, 2010 1:46 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Pena's baserunning wasn't a fail
The fail was the Boston coaches thinking they had to worry about him.
No I mean that Pena's baserunning is below average
I’m trying to make this a black and white situation, and I was wondering if you thought there was any reason why we can’t say “yes it was a bad move” or “no it wasn’t a bad move”, in the way of other factors that might influence the run expectancy
To me the grey area is Drew catching or not...
The decision to hold Pena close – in retrospect – was idiotic. He’s not known to be a base stealing threat when healthy, and he’s got a problem right foot. To me that’s the biggest problem/mistake for the Red Sox.
And as many catastrophe anayses have indicated, it’s a cascade of fail from there. The bad throw to 1st and non-catch – shit happens, but in the situation it opened the door…3rd base with one out instead of 1st base with one out.
Then a well placed foul ball and the catch…and a controvery that was the result of several other issues. The arguments I’ve heard that support Drew making the catch – every out is precious, it was only the tieing run, it was only the 7th inning. My thought against it – even a gimpy runner is going to score on a ball hit into the pen where the OF has to make a difficult catch. I don’t know the statistic expectancy – but I have to guess that it takes a really slow runner AND a great throw to catch Pena there.
But certainly other factor put Drew in that position, and I think the firs factor – holding Pena and calling for the PO throw from the bench was ill-concieved.
That's a bit strong
There has been criticism, but I’d hardly characterize it as crucifying. There’s a poll on the main Red Sox fan board and it’s running about 2-to-1 in favor of “drop it,” but the comments have been quite understanding, with some pointing out that letting the ball drop is very counter-intuitive and others arguing that every out is precious.
Both Buchholz’s errant throw (ordered by the bench, apparently) and the failure to turn 2 on Pena’s grounder are getting a lot more grief than Drew’s decision.
by Not Whole View Gang survivor on Aug 30, 2010 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
god i hate Joe Morgan
the man is a complete idiot, Jon Miller too. Miller keep calling us the Jays and Morgan acts like Carl Crawford is god, i guess he has never heard of Desmond Jennings, and saying we dont have enough to win it all
one more year Brett Favre!
Compared to Desmond Jennings
Carl Crawford IS (g)od.
by Not Whole View Gang survivor on Aug 30, 2010 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
This should not be construed as an endorsement of noted idiot Joe Morgan
Like a blind squirrel or a broken clock, he accidentally gets it right every now and then.
by Not Whole View Gang survivor on Aug 30, 2010 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
CC is great and DJ is promising
you have nothing to back up the claim until we see ML action from Jennings. He should be above average for defense, whereas the bat will probably take some adjusting (but who knows?)
I can't belive my grand mothers making me take Out the garbage I'm rich fuck this I'm going home I don't need this shit
Au contraire
Until we see MLB action from Jennings, it is those touting Jennings who have nothing to back up the claim. What I have is a proven All-Star caliber MLB LF with tremendous defense as well, vs. a completely unproven but talented prospect.
by Not Whole View Gang survivor on Aug 30, 2010 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
He shouldn't have caught it
Pena only scores on a hit, or a fairly extra ordinary fly ball because of his bad wing.
Neither was very likely. Even if a hit did occur, odds are pretty strong the inning ends exactly the way it did (1 run for the Rays).
The put it very simple the odds are the Rays scoring 2 or more runs was fairly slim no matter what Drew did. By him dropping it the odds of a 2+ run inning is really only slightly higher. It certainly does not justfy allowing the run to score.
Go Gators!!
i think he should've let it drop
the way Bucholz was going it was going to be tough to do anything against him
During the stretch run the Rays just whip out their Johnson and tell the Red Sox to suck it
Drop it
He should drop it because that’s the play to win move, which is where the Red Sox player’s heads should be at. Catching it is playing it safe,but down by 4.5 games at this stage of the season you can’t play it safe. Sure you risk losing the lead by extending the inning. But the go ahead run is standing at the plate whether he catches it or not. It’s like fouling at the end of a basketball game, make the other team earn, don’t give it to them.
by Win-cicum on Aug 30, 2010 11:43 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Remember when Crawford made the same decision to catch a
deep foul ball in a game against the Twins at the Metrodome about 2 years ago?
I recall people were pretty upset about that.
The year before at the dome was when he almost ran over Zobrist at 3B, potentially costing the Rays a chance to tie the game against Nathan. But in a subsequent game he had an inside the park HR so it was all OK.
just rambling now…
Does anyone actually believe he caught it on accident?
I guess you could make the argument that if you spend your whole life catching baseballs it’s pretty much a reflex and you might catch it even if your conscious mind is thinking that you shouldn’t, but it seems pretty far-fetched.
Not that I fault him for it, he had to make a split second decision. I’d believe that he was thinking about possibly dropping it. But I don’t believe him when he says that he made up his mind to drop it and caught it by accident.
P.S. Nice idea adjusting the run expectancy using WRAA for the batter at the plate
Did you adjust the run expectancy after the play also, based on the next batter? Seems to me if you adjust one you should adjust both.
by ChiBurbRaysFan on Aug 30, 2010 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I like the analysis - some qualms about the details
An impact like that is marginal
correct
Still, it appears that JD’s accidental catching of the ball was not the right move.incorrect
.
You’re comfortable projecting this out to a third and fourth significant digit? (1.079 & 1.117)
Run Expectancy is estimated and altered based on:
1. against the generic RHP
2. toward the average pitcher’s HR/FB rate
3. a season of UZR
To me, an unavoidable lack of precision turns 0.038 into 0.0; at this point, the outcomes are indistinguishable.
(That said, I would have preferred to drop it, were I in Drew’s situation) :)
The only people who really know where [the edge] is are the ones who have gone over it.
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Aug 30, 2010 5:44 PM EDT reply actions
This is an excellent point
A few points
1) The player blind WP difference was stark and at 5.2%. This post attempted to see if adding some context in the way of the players changed that, but the two agree.
2) Buchholz’s true talent level is roughly that of a league average pitcher according to his xFIP and CHONE. His career HR/FB is 10.2%, or essentially league average.
3) A season of UZR might not be stable for an individual, but for a team the innings of data total is much much larger, and so our final value is much much more stable.
So yes, while .04 runs might be too small of a difference alone to say outright whether or not Drew should’ve dropped the ball, given that it agrees with the context blind point (you shouldn’t be catching the tying run in the 7th inning), I think it’s safe to say that it appears that Drew should’ve dropped the ball.
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