Rays Defeat Jays 6-2, Remain Tied Atop AL East Standings

In July 2010, there were 1,322,998 people in the Tampa-St. Pete-Clearwater MSA Labor Force, otherwise known as the Rays market (with some bleed over into other bedroom communities and shadow markets like Orlando). The Labor Force does not equal population. The Labor Force doesn’t even mean primary householders. It doesn’t distinguish between spouses looking for a little part time job or just trying to scrounge up extra cash for whatever reason. Now, from that inflated pool of job seekers comes your unemployment rate. Which, in July 2010, was 12.3%. This could mean that Wifey Jane or Stay At Home Dad Billy didn’t get that 12 hour a week job at the Gap or slinging smoothies for the discount. As long as your spouse INTENDS at some point, or might even intend at some point, to seek employment – bang, you’re counted in the labor force. How serious are these people about looking for jobs? Varies. But the people who are less serious are skewing the unemployment rate.

Now, lets say that both spouses/all primary householders are actively seeking work. Let’s assume that for the purpose of examining that July 2010 data. Do you know what 12.3% taken out of 1.3 million is? It’s 1,160,538 employed householders. Add some children in there and the number of people gainfully employed or supported by gainfully employed people in the Rays market is significant. Much, much, much more significant than those who are unemployed, which, we’ve discussed, is not exactly an honest number, but for this exercise we are assuming total versimilitude.

Back to reality, though. Those 162,460 unemployed householders in the July 2010 sample….who are they? What kind of economy is this? Its hospitality and tourism based, a-doiii. Everyone knows that. So whats the likelihood that these unemployed people are service workers who are unlikely, at best, to support a baseball team to begin with? Shocker – its pretty fucking likely. The Accomodation and Food Services industry showed negative growth of 2.7% year-over-year. The Leisure and Hospitality Industry showed negative 2.4% growth year-over-year, the highest two industry losers by far in the market. It doesn’t take much to assume that job numbers in those industries have been declining since 2007.

So we’ve now established that the unemployment rate is not only partially misleading, but that its comprised of non-factor personnel for the Rays. Service workers, immigrants (I didn’t discuss this, but I didn’t think I needed to) – these people aren’t attending baseball games WHEN employed. But what about people more likely to attend baseball games? People with college degrees (calculator nerds) are more likely to acquire middle class, white collar jobs with enough discretionary money to use at a baseball game. The national unemployment rate for these people in July 2010? 4.5%. The all encompassing national unemployment rate in July 2010 is 13.8%. So that’s an approximate 8.3% difference. Unbelievable, right? And though this data isn’t available locally, is it that much of a stretch to think that the Rays sub-market of college grads aged 25 years and older is that much different than the national average? Not to me.

So, by all means, come up with whatever excuses you need to to pardon the area. Location, Jew owners, whatever. But using unemployment rate is silly. Even at our nadir, there are a fucking outrageous amount of employed people in this market, enough to fill more than 20 Tropicana Fields at once. And the people who are supposed to be able to afford ballgames can.

This commentary is well above replacement level.

There is no location in the Tampa Bay area that’s easy to get to for most of the population, unlike most cities. Damn bay screws things up. Miami has a similar problem simply because the metro area is long and narrow.

If you’re implying his career splits are more important than this year’s splits, then he wouldn’t have been released.