Ben Zobrist: A Valuable Letdown
A few days ago, our very own sternfan1 -- whom I love with all my blogging heart -- posted an OPS analysis of Ben Zobrist entitled "We have our very own One Hit Wonder." In it, he rightly observes that Zobrist is woefully falling short of our already-tempered expectations. SF1 even goes so far as to make the most egregious of comparisons:
And the beauty of all this, the Rays have committed $17 million dollars to this Nick Green clone over the next three seasons[.]
Aside of SF1's signature use of hyperbole, it indeed has begun to feel that Ben Zobrist has returned to his slap-hitting, under-achieving ways (he would have to be in a wheel chair to match Nick Green's output, though). But, before we let our eyes and OPS tell us the whole story, let's dig deeper into the present Zobrist virus:
First off, Ben Zobrist in 2010 has not been the Zorilla of 2008-2009:
| Season | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Fld | WAR |
| 2006 | 52 | 198 | 2 | 2 | 5.1% | 14.2% | 0.087 | 0.247 | 0.260 | 0.311 | 0.243 | 43 | -2.2 | -0.8 |
| 2007 | 31 | 105 | 1 | 2 | 2.9% | 21.6% | 0.052 | 0.182 | 0.184 | 0.206 | 0.180 | 0 | -2.5 | -1.1 |
| 2008 | 62 | 227 | 12 | 3 | 11.0% | 18.7% | 0.253 | 0.252 | 0.339 | 0.505 | 0.364 | 125 | -2.5 | 1.3 |
| 2009 | 152 | 599 | 27 | 17 | 15.2% | 20.8% | 0.246 | 0.326 | 0.405 | 0.543 | 0.408 | 154 | 22.8 | 8.3 |
| 2010 | 121 | 528 | 7 | 23 | 14.0% | 20.0% | 0.101 | 0.291 | 0.356 | 0.352 | 0.329 | 106 | 8.4 | 2.7 |
(Stats courtesy of Fangraphs.com.)
Zobrist has gone from 54% above average (a 154 wRC+) to a measly 6% away from Joe Quad-A. His OBP and SLG are way down, and he's hit as many home runs as Marco Scutaro, yuck.
Here's a graphical representation of three of Zobrist's pivotal stats, ISO, BABIP, and wOBA:
Note the mean value lines (the horizontal lines). Though they offer an imperfective analysis (one that unwisely gives equal weights to the earlier seasons, which had fewer plate appearances), I think they do offer us a better perspective on where our expectations should be.
It is becoming increasingly likely that the power-slugging, .250+ ISO days of Ben Zobrist were but mirage or good fortune. In fact, closer examination of his stellar 2009 season shows that Zobrist -- like his mean value line -- may be more of a .150 ISO-hitter:
(Chart courtesy of Fangraphs.com.)
From the second half of 2009 through the first half of 2010, Zobrist was hitting an ISO of about .150. That puts him in the company of Joe Mauer (circa 2009 notwithstanding) and Angel Pagan.
Let's take a closer look at Zorrila's monthly splits:
| Season | Split | OBP | SLG | ISO | BABIP | wOBA | wRC+ |
| 2010 | Mar/Apr | 0.327 | 0.356 | 0.115 | 0.313 | 0.320 | 100 |
| 2010 | May | 0.400 | 0.514 | 0.162 | 0.398 | 0.398 | 153 |
| 2010 | Jun | 0.394 | 0.341 | 0.068 | 0.307 | 0.345 | 116 |
| 2010 | Jul | 0.354 | 0.286 | 0.091 | 0.219 | 0.329 | 106 |
| 2010 | Aug | 0.293 | 0.205 | 0.051 | 0.177 | 0.237 | 43 |
(Stats courtesy of Fangraphs.com.)
Observe the red sections. Ben Zobrist was average in July, according to wRC+, and Neifi-Perez-terrible in August. At the same time, though, Zobrist has had about zero good fortune, suffering through a .190ish BABIP. According to Chris Dutton's xBABIP Quick Calculator, Zobrist's BABIP should have been at least in the .270ish range for the months of July and August.
This tells us something the other data has already alluded to: Ben Zobrist has been unlucky this year. That doesn't entirely explain his performance, though, because he has clearly altered his approach at the plate. Not only do his discpline numbers reflect a change:
| Season | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | Swing% | O-Contact% | Z-Contact% | Contact% | Zone% | F-Strike% | SwStr% |
| 2006 | 23.3% | 60.9% | 43.6% | 72.7% | 90.7% | 86.3% | 54.0% | 56.6% | 5.8% |
| 2007 | 26.7% | 59.7% | 45.6% | 70.5% | 87.9% | 83.5% | 57.3% | 66.7% | 7.2% |
| 2008 | 17.8% | 61.8% | 40.2% | 60.8% | 91.4% | 84.8% | 51.0% | 56.0% | 6.1% |
| 2009 | 19.5% | 59.3% | 37.8% | 65.3% | 88.3% | 81.9% | 45.9% | 52.8% | 6.6% |
| 2010 | 25.2% | 51.9% | 36.9% | 73.8% | 91.5% | 84.7% | 43.8% | 54.0% | 5.6% |
| Totals | 22.0% | 57.6% | 38.9% | 69.3% | 89.9% | 83.8% | 47.5% | 54.9% | 6.1% |
(Stats courtesy of Fangraphs.com.)
...But his Pitch-F/X batted ball data as well shows he's lost some muscle:
(Click the image for animation. Images courtesy of TexasLeaugers.com.)
Note how in the above GIF that Zobrist rarely approaches the warning tracks in 2010, especially in left field.
Ultimately, what does this mean? Is Zobrist becoming a reincarnation of Nick Green? No. Hands down, no.
Ben Zobrist is having a rough 2010 campaign which has featured a combination of unlucky BABIP and (likely frustration-induced) changes in approach. The results, however, have not destroyed Zobrist's value as a batter nor relative to his contract. He is still an incredible defender with phenomenal positional flexibility and a batter with an above-average eye and good speed.
Despite his down season, Zobrist has been worth nearly 3 WAR. Let's compare that to his contract:
| Year | Age | Salary | Sources | WAR | Value | Rays Gain |
| 2007 | 26 | $383,400.00 | -1.1 | -$4.4 | -$4.8 | |
| 2008 | 27 | $395,800.00 | 1.3 | $5.9 | $5.5 | |
| 2009 | 28 | $415,900.00 | 8.3 | $37.1 | $36.7 | |
| 2010 | 29 | $438,100.00 | 2.7 | $10.7 | $10.3 | |
| 2011 | 30 | $4,500,000.00 | ||||
| 2012 | 31 | $4,500,000.00 | ||||
| 2013 | 32 | $5,500,000.00 | ||||
| 2014 | 33 | *$7,000,000 | $7M Team Option, $2.5M Buyout | |||
| 2015 | 34 | *$7,500,000 | $7.5M Team Option, $500k Buyout | |||
| Career to date (may be incomplete) | $1,633,200.00 | Does not include future salaries | $47.67 | |||
(Stats courtesy of BaseballReference.com and Fangraphs.com.)
Even at the biggest end of his contract, Ben Zobrist's letdown 2010 season is still a bargain value. It's hard to admit it, but 2009 Zobrist may have been far more of an aberration than we expected. And though Zorilla may in fact be more of a striped polecat than a feared primate, he's still hella-valuable.
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And welcome to BWoodrum, our other new writer.
He’s been writing all year over at Cub Stats, and we’re lucky to have him come on-board.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
Great
A cubs guy added to the roster just in time for the postseason.
by GomesSweetGomes on Sep 1, 2010 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks guys!
I’m ecstatic about being able to start writing during such an exciting time of year!
from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
All I know is since September first, the DRB Golden Boy
Is hitting .000/.000/.000.
Welcome aboard.
www.draysbay.com, www.bloombergsports.mlblogs.com, Twitter @trancel
by Tommy Rancel on Sep 1, 2010 1:12 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
In light of this new evidence, I would like to retract my statements.
(Thanks Tommy. :) )
from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
Good stuff
Glad to have you on board as I’ve always enjoyed your work and commenting. The severe decline in his production really occurred around the time of his back injury. I wonder if he’s just gutting it out. Would love to see Cevallos break down the 2009 and 2010 swings.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
This has been my thinking for a while
Nice to see you again Brad.
If this works, I want the copywrite and patent on the statistic.
Follow me: @SandyKazmir, read me @ Dockoftherays.com, feel me whenever you want.
Nice stuff....bad timing :(
Guess what my story is for the BHSN blog later today? Zobrist and Bartlett’s 2010 demise
Oh no!
Sorry, I certainly didn’t mean to steal your thunder! I figured, given the recent climate of debate, that somebody else might be exploring this issue too, but I had no way of know what others were doing.
from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
Steve forgot to teach you the secret handshake during your training...
by Jason Collette on Sep 1, 2010 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Expect somewhere in the middle for Zobrist next year
healthy with no back problems and less pressure of his first multi-million dollar contract, hopefully the real Zobrist emerges
by raysfaninminnesota on Sep 1, 2010 1:37 PM EDT reply actions
Indeed, I expect he will rebound in 2011,
but his speed — at age 30 — may have already started to decline.
That said, his OBP plus his defense plus a .150 ISO = still a very valuable Utility Starter.
from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
i don't think a .280avg, .360 OBP, 15HR, and 25-30 SB is out of the question
by raysfaninminnesota on Sep 1, 2010 1:51 PM EDT reply actions
If his ISO normalizes super fast, he could reach that this year.
from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
Some thing has to be wrong with him, injury or a mechanical problem. I mean he was leading the team in BA and OBP in mid June.
Since then he is batting about .150. I mean how is that even sustainable over a two month period? Especially considering his walks have been up and his strikeouts down in that same period.
We don't have splits on his plate patience numbers,
which sucks because it mean we can’t examine the changes he’s made over the season (at least, I don’t think we can). I would be intrigued to see how his discipline numbers look before and after his back injury and as the season has progressed.
And, as I noted above, his past two months have featured a BABIP that is unluckily low (i.e. lower than his xBABIP). However, over these last two months, he’s also hit fewer line drives.
from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
And the numbers for August are official--'One hit' checks in at 160/301/210
and yet is playing nearly everyday—Wonderful
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
Indeed August has been rough for him,
but — as noted above — he’s had a BABIP lower than his xBABIP and therefore an object of poor fortune. We cannot reasonably expect August to accurately represent his true level of talent.
from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
if August represented that, Friedman should be fired for extending him
which i still feel will prove to be a mistake
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
I don't think I completely understand your statement,
but I’m interested in hearing in what ways you expect Zobrist to decline? As I presented above, if he sustained his present value — which I assert is below his true talent level (i.e. unlucky) — then he will beat his contract value. Therefore, if the contract proves to be a mistake, it will be proxy of decrease in talent, not a sustainment of 2010 talent.
I guess what I’m asking is: Do you expect his defense or OBP or something else to fall apart? Do you anticipate injury problems? What are your expectations for both the numbers and the story of Ben Zobrist?
I’d like to know because it gives me something to research, or at least a direction for inquiry. Perhaps utility players are more prone to injury or drops in ISO? I don’t know.
from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
::crickets::
If this works, I want the copywrite and patent on the statistic.
Follow me: @SandyKazmir, read me @ Dockoftherays.com, feel me whenever you want.
My thoughts exactly.
If SF1 would be so kind to address my questions here, I would be much more equipped to engage the debate systematically.
from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
Because he's making league-minimum this season...
and only $4.5M next season? Yes, let’s fire Friedman for that suckjob of a contract.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
by Steve Slowinski on Sep 1, 2010 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I said IF--please read before posting
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"which i still feel will prove to be a mistake"
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
by Steve Slowinski on Sep 1, 2010 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions
big difference between a "mistake" and August numbers
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
True, August numbers are horrible,
but that’s like pointing to Longoria’s worst month of the season and claiming his extension will prove to be a mistake.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
by Steve Slowinski on Sep 1, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I know this isn't the most ideal way of putting it...
and probably would not be helpful to the Rays; but based on the amount of guaranteed money left on his contract, wouldn’t Zobrist only have to perform at about a 1.5 WAR going forward to get equal value?
Boom. Outta Here.
I wish WAR would break down offense and defense
This Rays offense needs Zobrist’s offensive side of the ball, imo
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
It does ya mook
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7435&position=2B/SS/OF#value
He’s been worth 3.8 runs above average.
If this works, I want the copywrite and patent on the statistic.
Follow me: @SandyKazmir, read me @ Dockoftherays.com, feel me whenever you want.
Hmm...
Let’s be err on the side of caution here: $4M per WAR, Zo has already accrued 2.7 WAR.
That’s $10.8M in value, and his contract is for a guarantees $18M. So if market rates stay really low, he’ll need around 2 WAR more to be worth the contract. Theoretically, the rates are only going to go up, so it’ll likely take even less to equal out.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
by Steve Slowinski on Sep 1, 2010 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
BRef WAR is 1.9--a legitamite site
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
Don't know but V-Mart also has a 1.9 WAR--who'd you rather have at the plate?
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
V-Mart at 2B/RF would have me rolling
Easier to hit him with a battery if he’s in RF though
If this works, I want the copywrite and patent on the statistic.
Follow me: @SandyKazmir, read me @ Dockoftherays.com, feel me whenever you want.
Fangraphs is not "legitamite" cause it doesnt prove your point.
www.draysbay.com, www.bloombergsports.mlblogs.com, Twitter @trancel
by Tommy Rancel on Sep 1, 2010 3:10 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I don't get why Jed Hoyer and other GMs read FanGraphs.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 1, 2010 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions
This is sternfan1 with an agenda
Sign lady must die.
Follow me on Twitter @Josh_Frank
by EminenceFront on Sep 1, 2010 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions
WoW all it took was a plug for BRef to wake up the tweeters
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
Not your best work, Sterny.
What’s next? Worrying about Leslie Anderson not living up to his contract. Or whether Jose Julio Ruiz should have a 40-man spot?
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 1, 2010 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Leslie is Casey Kotchman w/o the glove
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
I'd take it.
It looks like 80% of his height comes from his legs.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 1, 2010 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
You've no doubt watch a lot of tape on him
The caller said the boy, after removing the bulb from its socket, left the building and threw the bulb on the ground. When the bulb broke, the caller said the boy screamed "Free the slaves at traffic stops from false arrest and jury fixing"
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Sep 1, 2010 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Even at 1.9 WAR, Zobrist is worth ~$8.
Which beats the most expensive year of his contract.
That, and I’m pretty sure the B-Ref WAR is batting only.
from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
Considering his next three years would be Arb1, Arb2 and Arb3
Then his value numbers for those years should be reduced to 40%, 60% and 80% in those years, accordingly.
Just saying, but it’s a fallacy to say that we’ve gotten some massive value. He had less than three years of service time, so value is major league minimum, no matter how well he does.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
True...
but if we had to go out and purchase that production on the free agency market how much would we pay for it?
Boom. Outta Here.
But that doesn't matter for analysing the contract
That might matter for purposes of analyzing whether we won the Huff trade, or placing value on our scouting department, but in terms of the contract itself the real question is whether he would have been cheaper without the contract.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Agreed.
Just about to post something similar.
Pointing and saying he’s already earned $8 million of his contract is silly. He would have been on the team this year regardless. Same for the next two years and at a reduced price.
Most of the value in the contract relates to his option years of 2014 and 2015 for $7 million and $7.5 being a great deal for the team.
Very true.
Perhaps I should have avoided that final bit of analysis. It does indeed come across that I’m saying his contract is earning the Rays money when in fact he would have been with us anyway.
What I was trying to communicate is that he is still very valuable and his contract is team friendly with respect to his actual value, but maybe I got a little over zealous.
from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
Most of the value in the contract relates to his option years of 2014 and 2015 for $7 million and $7.5 being a great deal for the team.
That’s just it. If he falls flaat on his face then the contract was no big deal, but if he is very good then it’s a great deal. There’s so little downside with huge upside.
What?
He’s guaranteed $18m. He’s been worth ~3 WAR this year. In a down market that’s still worth ~$12m. He might not make the Rays as much of a profit as originally assumed, but he’s going to absolutely crater for this to look “bad”.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 1, 2010 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
These are the "big money" years: $7.5M*2
That’s not much at all. If his salary were double I’d see your point. It’s a very team-friendly contract that doesn’t seem to reflect a belief that Zobrist would be one of the best players in the majors yearly.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 1, 2010 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
1.9 WAR--why is FG better than BRef?
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
I do not believe TotalZone updates during the season.
Meaning B-Ref’s is not including any defensive value. Watch.
FanGraphs has him at 2.7 with 8 runs of defensive value. What’s 2.7 – 8? 1.9. If TotalZone has him as an average fielder — I woudln’t believe that to be the case — then yes, he’s been a 1.9 WAR player. Reality suggest he’s been 5 < x < 10 runs defensively.
That’s WITHOUT baserunning and Zobrist is pretty good at it too. I’d give him three wins so far.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 1, 2010 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Just checked. Apparently TZ does update during the season.
They have Zobrist at +2 this season, their offensive stat has him at league average rather than slightly above. If they use OPS, that would explain it.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 1, 2010 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Here's the link to it.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/z/zobribe01.shtml#batting_value
They include a baserunning value too, without checking it to EqBR I can’t tell you how it stacks up or what goes into it.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 1, 2010 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
EqBRR has him at 4.4 runs.
So that’s not too far off.
I trust wOBA more than whatever B-Ref is using. Even if you don’t buy UZR’s number, I think we can agree he’s a plus defender in RF and 2B. Worst case: take the average of the 1.9 and 2.8. He’s still been worth the money this year.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 1, 2010 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
You've proven him wrong. You're not going to get a response.
Sign lady must die.
Follow me on Twitter @Josh_Frank
by EminenceFront on Sep 1, 2010 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed.
I think there is also the added value of his positional flexibility — which I feel is only partially captured through WAR. His ability to play all over and switch hit allows prudent managers to capitalize on platoon splits and match ups with other players and fully utilize the bench. That’s worth a $1M premium — at least — in my book.
from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
The problem with all this is that 1.7 of his 2.8 win value
is simply the result of his positional adjustments.
Unless I’m completely offbase – and the comment about VMart’s value as a 2B points to this a bit – It’s the value of not having a “replacement” player playing everyday instead of Zobrist.
But this argument has a problem, and it’s indicative of what might be a problem with WAR in general.
Zobrist’s PT wouldn’t go to a replacment player. It would go to a collection of perhaps somewhat less good players, but better than replacements in Rodriguez, Brignac, Joyce, Aybar and even Kapler (okay, perhaps not a great option). They would largely replace Benzo’s PT, with perhaps a bench guy on the back end who would almost never play, probably Ruggiano, who could also be better than replacement if given 1/2 a chance. Yes, there could be a falloff – though I’ve heard elsewhere that if Brignac only played more he’d be better.
That’s fully 60% of his win value. That he plays instead of someone who wouldn’t play. His offensive value is less than .4 wins. His defensive value is .8 wins. Replacement value isn’t strictly defensive value – it’s an attempt to measure overall value across all players compared to replacement.
Perhaps too much blind acceptance of the statistical construct.
And on the superiority of UZR – Lichtmann, who invented it, says a years UZR numbers are probably almost meaningless. I’ve seen plenty of discussion brewing about the too large level of uncertainty in most current defensive metrics.
Finally his unlucky BABIP. Curious you failed to mention his phenomenally lucky month of May, which balances out some of the last 2 months. His season overall still shows below average – and I certainly believe Zobrist is likely a better player right now than his 2010 numbers. But you can’t just pick the unlucky slices toprove he’s unlucky.
But if he didn’t recover, he wouldn’t be the first MLB guy who rocketed to the fore for 2 years in his prime, then sunk back to lower average levels of play in later seasons. This could be a rough approximation of who Zobrist could be going forward. I’d tend to think not, but I also don’t think any kind of argument can be made with certainty saying 2009 is Zobrist’s true talent level and 2010 is strictly an aberration. I don’t hear the more reasoned voices here making that argument.
That said, SternFan is a pain in the ass – lift your game dude.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Sep 2, 2010 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Glad to see the salary argument come under question
And good on you Woodrum for owning up to that.
Salary for controlled players compared to value is solely the result of the structural salary constraints in the game. This is just as true in the opposite way in free agency years.
Should Zobrist continue in a downward direction, how happy will you be in 2013 with a $5.5 mil utility player? The ghost of Julio Lugo comes back to haunt Tampa.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Sep 2, 2010 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Brilliant points, nyyfan!
Thank you for being willing to oppose consensus (or at least perceived consensus)! Without input such as yours DRaysBay — or any blogging community — risks group think.
Indeed: Zobrist’s value above replacement is almost not worth examining because the Rays bench and Durham’s starters are above replacement level. In that perspective, he is only worth how much more production he can produce than the man behind him — likely a combination of Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez.
In other words, if the embodiment of Reid Rodriguez proves to be worth $7M after contract costs and Zobrist is worth only $6M after contract costs, the Rays aught to trade Zobrist and just start R. R. Conversely, if R.R. turns out to be worth $7M after contract and Zobrist $8M after contract, Zobrist would be worth starting still.
This is an excellent problem to have, of course, and one that has “plagued” the Rays for several years now — too much talent. I, unfortunately, was no approaching the Zobrist analysis from the specific angle of replacement values, so I took the WAR stat perhaps a bit too much for granted.
At the same time, I would like to point out that Zobrist’s positional flexibility — though it may be overvalued by WAR (though, even after rereading the primer just now, I don’t think so) — has allowed the Rays to still pull an extra bit of value from Reid Rodriguez that if would not have with a one-position kind of guy.
For instance, let’s say Zobrist was worth something like $5M after contract based on his offense and defense alone. But by being able to move all over the field and play numerous positions with high levels of defense, he allowed Reid Rodriguez to be worth $2M more than they would have had he been stuck at RF or 2B. At the same time, he has been able to spell players with injuries all across the field, preventing untold dollars-worth of injuries (of course this affect may be minimal, but it concurrently could be enormous). This would make Zobrist worth >$7M.
Concerning UZR, I would not have trusted Zobrist’s WAR had his 2010 UZR been in utter disconnect with: (A) past UZR, (B) +/-, and © the general consensus of scouting and the fans’ eyes. I think we can agree that in the outfield and on the clay of second base, Zobrist does very well.
Lastly, I’ve got nothing against $5.5 utility players. Hell, I love them — assuming they defend well, or hit well, or do something amazing such as to earn not only 500+ PA, but their salary as well. Utility just means more than one position. I think there is stigma in baseball around the concept of guys who play more than one position. It’s like a woman with a sense of humor — you just assume there’s something wrong.
Of course, I know that’s not what you were trying to say, but I just wanted to mention it anyway.
(Also, on a side note, Julio Lugo — while playing with the [Devil] Rays — was consistently worth ~4 WAR while playing primarily shortstop and a little 2B in 2004. I wouldn’t mind having a reincarnation of that.)
Again, thanks for the comments nyyfan!
from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
Really? Jeter's 239/318/333 would have FreeZo writing daily fanposts
about the ‘Comeback of Ben Zobrist’
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
what numbers are you looking at?
Jeter’s .000/.250/.000 make Zobrist’s .333/.500/.333 look almost godlike.
Here's another beautiful Zoby stat
in August he had more BB (18) than Hits (13)—WoW
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
From 2001 to 2004 Barry Bonds had more BB than hits each year
LoL BondS pHail
by benderbrodriguez on Sep 1, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
That's fairly meaningless
Dan johnson did that in August, and Barry Bonds did this for seasons on end. Not that he hasn’t struggled (he has), but without context a higher number of walks than hits can be a good or bad thing.
by GomesSweetGomes on Sep 1, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
DanJo hit like 130 and i think Bonds is well chronicled
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
Danjo of the .366 OBP?
To pull one out of your bag of troll, learn to read. I said ‘without context’ the stat you cited is fairly meaningless
by GomesSweetGomes on Sep 1, 2010 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Having only 13 hits in a full month of work = nearly always bad
Having more walks than hits = could mean anything
by GomesSweetGomes on Sep 1, 2010 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Now allow me to go a little OT and talk about a real ballplayer, unlike
Zoby and Briggy. I’m speaking of the next star on this Rays team SeanRod
Not only did he bury Zoby in OPS in August and overall this season, he’s starting to show patience at the plate, which his minor league splits suggest
After walking just 7 times from April through July in AUgust he drew 8 BB in 67 PA an 8.4%—good not great but getting there
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Interestingly, S-Rod has a .150 ISO.
If my prediction about Zobrist’s ISO is correct, that makes S-Rod and Zobrist nearly clones.
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...Assuming S-Rod does develop greater patience.
Which can and should happen.
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What's your ISO prediction for SeanRod?
I feel his power is emerging
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His minor league numbers seem more inclined towards .200,
but given his plate discipline — especially at the ML level — it may be a wash on offense.
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Assuming he qualified
His BB% would still be 144th out of 155 in the bigs. Lets see a little more sustained progress before we start calling him a patient hitter.
by GomesSweetGomes on Sep 1, 2010 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
And his K % would be 137/155
Not trying to dog the guy. I hope he succeeds. But he has a lot of flaws to work out at the MLB level.
by GomesSweetGomes on Sep 1, 2010 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
he's a young guy who needs more playing time, kinda like Brignac
has anyone checked out his lefty/righty splits lately? .315/.230
If he can get even a slight handle on righties, he’s going to do just fine. It’s also nice to see progression in-season, like increased walk rates, with six walks in his last seven games. He’s also decreased his strikeout total, with 5 K’s in his last 10 games, a total of 26 at bats. Only 2 of his last 26 games has he even had multiple strikeouts in a game.
Better yet, pre-all star stats: 219 AB’s, 64K’s, 6 BBs
post all star stats: 77 AB’s, 17K’s, 9 BB’s
Looks like a guy who’s no longer just completely hacking, but a guy who is slowly learning—a learning curve that will be boosted forward next year with a regular job.
by raysfaninminnesota on Sep 1, 2010 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Rodriguez was way too passive in the first half.
Pitchers would threw him like 70% first pitch strikes and he would never offer. By the time he started looking to swing he’d be down 0-2 or 1-2. You can’t succeed in this league like that. He was very 2006 Zobrist-esque.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 1, 2010 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Let's hope
But I don’t foresee him ever being above average in terms of patience…Not that he needs to be to become (ok, continue to be) a valuable contributor. But if we select his best demonstration of patience of the year thus far, and thats only average, its hard for me to expect much more.
Also, is there any data out there on the relation of patience to playing time. I sense that fulltime players definitely have higher bb% and lower k% than their platoon counterparts, but wonder how much of this is selective sampling.
by GomesSweetGomes on Sep 1, 2010 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
In other words, you're not gonna play everyday if you're hacktastic
But playing everyday may not be a cure for poor plate discipline.
by GomesSweetGomes on Sep 1, 2010 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
playing time isn't necessarily a solution
but it paints a more accurate picture than a small sample size. Baseball is a game of routine, and to really give a player his best shot, it would be best to give him his shot and see how he does.
It was hard for the Rays to do that this year when they had Barty at SS and Zobrist splitting between 2B and RF. Depending upon the OF configuration for next year, it may not be an issue.
Bare minimum, S-Rod has shown he can be an above average pitcher against lefties. Whether he becomes an all-around player, or just part of a platoon is what remains to be seen. Either way, he’s shown he can be a valuable part of a Maddon bench/platoon.
Maybe S-Rod at 2B against lefties with Zobrist in RF, and Zobrist at 2B and Joyce in RF against righties.
by raysfaninminnesota on Sep 1, 2010 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Also an 8.4 BB% isn't really anything more than average
It would place him in the median of qualifiers
by GomesSweetGomes on Sep 1, 2010 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I've been very happy to see the improved plate discipline lately
Hopefully it sticks.
by benderbrodriguez on Sep 1, 2010 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Matt Joyce is the next star.
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by Tommy Rancel on Sep 1, 2010 3:29 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
If OBP is so important
then why don’t they put it on the….oh….wait….
Founding member of the Leslie Anderson fan club.
dj = johnson or jennings? (not sure if jennings got the callup)
hope to god its not johnson though….
It's Jennings
Our line up tonight is:
Upton, Jennings, Crawford, Longoria, Pena, Rodriguez, Hawpe, Navarro, Bartlett
PIZZA?!?
Ooooh lordy, I like this
If this works, I want the copywrite and patent on the statistic.
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daveh needs to get here with his RBI baseball gif
If this works, I want the copywrite and patent on the statistic.
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The mark of whether it's a good contract isn't whether we get value that exceeds his actual salary
It’s whether it would have been cheaper to keep him through Arb3 without the contract, plus the value over the options if they get exercised. Zobrist would have been under team control for the next three years whether or not he signed the contract, so value over replacement value is pretty irrelevant to whether it was a good deal, at least through the first three years of the deal.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Excellent point.
If we intende to analyze the extension of his contract, I would need to take this into perspective. All I was attempting to iterate with my post, however, was that — with respect to his current contract — he is quite valuable. I’m trying to take his contract as a sunk cost. Perhaps my last chart strays away from that premise and distracts from the overall thrust — and for that I apologize.
from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
Sternfan1 is officially dominating the news cycle.
Nice article!
by Lurch's Lobbyists on Sep 1, 2010 5:04 PM EDT reply actions
Thanks!
I actually wrote it before SF1 started a hullabaloo about Zobrist — or at least before I was aware of it — if that counts for anything.
from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
I mentioned this before but
Zobrist has significantly changed his swing from 2009 to 2010. His weight is on his front foot through the swing. It should give him more ground balls and fewer fly balls, but it extremely curtails power. Watch his swing last year. He keeps his weight back and drives the ball. This year he is often neutral with his weight or worse, forward with his weight. I wonder if he consciously changed this when he was lead off batter.
I would also like to see his spray charts from each side. If he is pulling outside pitches it could cause the ball to be hit more weakly to the pull side, thus corresponding to the lower average on batted balls.
Excellent observation.
This is the kind of territory where I’m pretty lost — the physics of the swing and such.
from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
I've asked Ben to work several times since 2007-2008
And he has declined. He’s more a man of faith than science (like myself). My belief is that if you aren’t improving your swing, you are getting worse, because pitchers are studying you every day, and you must counter that the best way possible. Definitely he’s having injury trouble, (that also could be contributed to mechanics). His problem is not that he’s getting his weight too far on the front leg as one reader postulated. Ben’s problem is directly related to CSR, always is and always will be. Second to that is a hitter’s ability to Secondary Cushion, which I never had a chance to work on with Ben and haven’t seen him do yet.
Thanks for the input, I've been thinking for awhile that the back has been bothering him. His range appears shorter and it makes sense
if he’s getting less torque out of his swing. Is it possible that the Ben since the ASG is the one that we’ll have for the rest of the year? With our cushion in the WC I would almost like to see him take a week or two off and try to get healthy, but it’s not like back problems go away, right Eric Chavez?
If this works, I want the copywrite and patent on the statistic.
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by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 2, 2010 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
I hope he hasn't been hanging out with Baldelli
If this works, I want the copywrite and patent on the statistic.
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by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 2, 2010 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
What is CSR?
The caller said the boy, after removing the bulb from its socket, left the building and threw the bulb on the ground. When the bulb broke, the caller said the boy screamed "Free the slaves at traffic stops from false arrest and jury fixing"
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Sep 2, 2010 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Ctrl+F is all I found
http://www.theswingmechanic.com/positionalhitting.html
If this works, I want the copywrite and patent on the statistic.
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by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 2, 2010 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
CIR was the Cevallos Impact Rating
He may have changed up the name:
The CSR equation is a measurement of angles of the bat and body at the moment of contact with the baseball. This equation has recently been helpful for scouts to predict how a player will perform with his current swing. It is also very useful however, in helping players who want to improve their hitting.
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This is what Zo said during his interview with TRancel
Since training with Cevallos and Heefner, Zobrist has taken what he’s learned from both and tried to pass it along to others. “I have told people about it and used some of the same swing truths when doing my own lessons in Nashville in the offseason, without trying to take the credit for coming up with anything,” he says. When asked if he is still in contact with Cevallos, Zobrist said that the two were in contact recently and Cevallos is still “encouraging” him to keep up with the training. However, Zobrist added that during the season he tries “not to get too technical during the season especially if I’m swinging it well. I try to see the ball and swing at strikes.” Sounds simple enough since swinging well is something he has done and continues to do.
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Question for Jamie
Do most players use you as a one-time off-season consultant, or do they keep up with the training? What about Nevin Ashley and Justin Ruggiano?
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Frankly, most players don't stick with it, even if they do see improvement.
If a player is happy with the improvement he has made, often I will see a drop in the hours they train – as if they have exceeded their expectations and don’t need to achieve any more or less or reach higher levels.
The training is not like that of traditional hitting training. It is more like (as one player referred to it) “swing yoga” and yoga as we all know takes a certain patience and quietness. Some personalities are just not suited to it.
I recently moved to the California Bay Area to work with more players. For now, players prefer to not be named for fear of being black balled by their teams. It also appears that MLB teams will be making offers soon.
As more players learn to be patient with Postitional Hitting, look for players who have traditionally had very little power to all of the sudden hit more home runs or players with good power to raise their averages.

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![Zobrist wallpaper I made :]
Actual Link: http://i1207.photobucket.com/albums/bb472/lewiedesigns/Wallpapers/Zobristwallpaper.jpg](http://cdn1.sbnation.com/fan_shot_images/237766/Zobristwallpaper_small.jpg)















