Crowd-Sourcing Carl Crawford and His Contract

ST. PETERSBURG - JULY 11: Designated hitter Carl Crawford #13 of the Tampa Bay Rays waits to bat against the Cleveland Indians during the game at Tropicana Field on July 11 2010 in St. Petersburg Florida. (Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images)

Over at FanGraphs, they recently tried a new feature: using their large quantity of readers to "crowd-source" a prediction. They're trying this concept to estimate the contract size of upcoming free agents, and they started with Carl Crawford. Here are the results:

Average length: 5.5 years
Average salary: $16.4 million

Median length: 5 years
Median salary: $17 million

Standard deviation, years: 0.93 years

Standard deviation, salary: $2.91 million

As Dave Cameron notes in the article, if these numbers end up being accurate, Crawford would be a relative bargain; sixteen million a season is comparatively cheap for a player of his caliber. Whether the Rays would be able to afford that contract is another story, but let's not think about that yet...

And so, I'm curious how the DRaysBay community feels. Do you believe Crawford will sign for a similar size contract, or do you expect him to go for more/less than the FanGraphs estimate? Let's do our own crowd-sourcing and see what numbers we get. How big of a contract do you expect Crawford to sign and how long will it be?

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