Crowd-Sourcing Carl Crawford and His Contract
by Steve Slowinski on Sep 2, 2010 1:01 PM EDT
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Over at FanGraphs, they recently tried a new feature: using their large quantity of readers to "crowd-source" a prediction. They're trying this concept to estimate the contract size of upcoming free agents, and they started with Carl Crawford. Here are the results:
Average length: 5.5 years
Average salary: $16.4 millionMedian length: 5 years
Median salary: $17 millionStandard deviation, years: 0.93 years
Standard deviation, salary: $2.91 million
As Dave Cameron notes in the article, if these numbers end up being accurate, Crawford would be a relative bargain; sixteen million a season is comparatively cheap for a player of his caliber. Whether the Rays would be able to afford that contract is another story, but let's not think about that yet...
And so, I'm curious how the DRaysBay community feels. Do you believe Crawford will sign for a similar size contract, or do you expect him to go for more/less than the FanGraphs estimate? Let's do our own crowd-sourcing and see what numbers we get. How big of a contract do you expect Crawford to sign and how long will it be?
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$666K must be donated to the Rays charity
Maddon's Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.
by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT
Apparently we are getting new turf
love it love it love it
i hate one person more than Pap smear—his name is bin laden
by sternfan1 on Aug 12, 2010 3:33 PM EDT
As I voted over there 5/18
If this works, I want the copywrite and patent on the statistic.
Follow me: @SandyKazmir, read me @ Dockoftherays.com, feel me whenever you want.
Same on money, gave him one more year though.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2010 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions
That's kinda how I worked my number...
thinking the last year would be an option in the 23-25 range
Boom. Outta Here.
it will be bigger, imo. Demand > Supply (outside of trades).
Big spending teams that glaringly need a left fielder (7) : Boston, NYY, White Sox, Detroit, Angels, Nationals, San Fran. Free agent outfielders: Amezaga, Catalanotto, Crawford, Crisp, Cuddyer, DeJesus, Gerut, J Guillen, W Harris, Hawpe, Kearns, Kubel, M Ordonez, Thames, Werth, A Dunn.
Why would the Yankees need him when they already have two plus defenders for C/LF that can't hit lefties?
If this works, I want the copywrite and patent on the statistic.
Follow me: @SandyKazmir, read me @ Dockoftherays.com, feel me whenever you want.
....from someone who has already changed their screen name, I value your opinion.
If it that important… I will change mine too, like you did yours earlier this year. Should I write a fan post to get ideas from others so I know what I should change it to?
I really want to impress those posters that wish they were members of the secret society here… but haven’t quite made it there yet. Are there any other words in names that would get me banned? Just curious. I want this new screen name to last me a while.
And more than anything… I really, really want to be accepted here and not banned by you.
Let me know what you think, thanks!
by RalphieTheRay on Sep 3, 2010 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm leaning towards Ryansfan1, but scared I'll be called out for copying others...
I really want that name… with your blessing, I’ll make it happen… If I need to add a G or something to make you legit, I’ll do it… really I will.
by RalphieTheRay on Sep 3, 2010 2:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Are there any other words in names that would get me banned?
Faggoty Asshole would most certainly get you banned, but if the shoe fits…
If this works, I want the copywrite and patent on the statistic.
Follow me: @SandyKazmir, read me @ Dockoftherays.com, feel me whenever you want.
PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE LAA STEP UP AND PAY THIS MAN.
Haddad is an arab name, all arabs are terrorists. At least some Indians are hilarious tech support geeks with mustaches and fake talk-shows
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Aug 18, 2010 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Sep 2, 2010 1:26 PM EDT reply actions
Im hoping Uncle Drayton brings he boy home.
i'll tweet that prick right now
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
by sternfan1 on Aug 21, 2010 8:42 PM PDT up reply actions
by PlayOnWords on Sep 2, 2010 1:45 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Atlanta could use another super athletic outfielder.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2010 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
And do what with the patio builder they currently have walking around in LF?
Haddad is an arab name, all arabs are terrorists. At least some Indians are hilarious tech support geeks with mustaches and fake talk-shows
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Aug 18, 2010 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Sep 2, 2010 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it depends if the Yankees are in the bidding or not.
I tend to think they’ll pass given Gardner, changing the market in favor of the Fangraphs community prediction.
from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
If they sign CC, we should make a play for Gardner--he's the lead off we never had
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
He's not arbitration eligible until 2011, right?
I doubt we’d get Gardner from the Yankee’s claws, but I wouldn’t mind having another speedy outfielder — though he would be essentially an older, whiter, left-handed B.J. Upton. The price would have to be right and Upton would have to continue to disappoint, but who knows?
from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
Gardner is around a 385 OBP--when's the last time BJ sniffed that?
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
385 as lead off
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
by sternfan1 on Sep 2, 2010 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Crawford's young for a free agent
at only 28 years old, and has a skill set that doesn’t tend to degrade quickly. Unless his knees get much worse, he should be able to maintain decent production until he’s 35 or so. Thus, I’m guessing a 6 year contract, probably at about 17 million a year.
Guess: 6/100
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
And I think it's far more likely he ends up with the Rangers than the Red Sox or Yankees
He’s a Texas native, the new ownership group is looking to make a splash, and they pretty desperately need outfield defensive help. They may even drive up the price some.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
All it takes is one crazy owner . . .
And I think CC will have more than one crazy owner bidding for his services.
I’m going with 6 years, $120 million (AAV $20 million).
by Not Whole View Gang survivor on Sep 2, 2010 3:25 PM EDT reply actions
I love crowd sourcing
I think he’s going to get 5 years 95 million
2011 – 17
2012 – 18
2013 – 18
2014 – 20
2015 – 22
Either way I think he’s out of our budget. The real question to me is at what price do we retain Carlos Pena and what is Pena worth to the team? Would we resign him for 5? 7?
A 33/34 year old hitter to a 5 year contract,
WHAT?
So you can keep knocking but won't knock me down
No love lost, no love found
by 4QB on Sep 3, 2010 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Unless you're saying Money Wise.
So you can keep knocking but won't knock me down
No love lost, no love found
by 4QB on Sep 3, 2010 1:22 AM EDT up reply actions
yes, money
I’m thinking just a one year deal.
by Saint_A on Sep 3, 2010 2:15 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
My hope is that Craw goes somewhere for around 5-6 seasons, gets his huge paycheck
and the decides to come back to the Rays to finish out his career. I could see him taking some sort of home town discount to come back, especially if there’s a new stadium by then.
Founding member of the Leslie Anderson fan club.
It's not his hometown
I can't belive my grand mothers making me take Out the garbage I'm rich fuck this I'm going home I don't need this shit
hmm, well, that's still not a hometown
I can't belive my grand mothers making me take Out the garbage I'm rich fuck this I'm going home I don't need this shit
So he wouldnt be taking a "hometown discount" ?
Just because he wasnt born here, doesnt make it any different.
It does a little
I’d say Matt Joyce is more likely to sign an Evan-esque deal than say Deezy or Hellickson
Perhaps, but this is about finishing off a career
One that he started in Tampa for almost a decade. I think that might play into it a little?
Absolutely it does
Just don’t expect him to slice off a lot
I was saying 5-6 years averaging 15-16 million per year this off season.
I don’t think anything has changed, and I think these numbers are pretty accurate. Torii Hunter got 5/90 from the Angels, I see that as his hypothetical max.
So I should just change my sig to
I hate everyone of color, along with invalids, the old, and the retarded?
by firemangreg on Jul 21, 2010 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
All depends on which teams
If its the Yankees or Red Sox, he should demand 20 mil or more a season. I think he’ll end up getting 5 or 6 years at about 15 mil per, which is way too expensive for the Rays. I’ll always think of him as a Ray, and never boo him.
The thing that inflates CC's payday is the FA market & how it has shifted this year
Last year, you have Bay/Holliday/Lackey as the big 3, but the 2011 season was straight LOADED with potential FAs. Who’s left now except Werth, CC, Lee, Soriano that would be in high demand. And the 2012 market may not be that good so far.
PIZZA?!?
6/110
Something loosely based around the following.
2011: 17.5M
2012: 20M
2013: 20M
2014: 20M
2015: 17.5M
2016: 15M
They never go down at the end
The agents won’t let them, because it hurts the value of their future contracts.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
I always wondered about front-loading a contract if you've got the money that year, but that makes a lot of sense.
I would think a savvy agent would see that the time-value of a front-loaded contract is probably better, but it’s still a great point.
If this works, I want the copywrite and patent on the statistic.
Follow me: @SandyKazmir, read me @ Dockoftherays.com, feel me whenever you want.
At what salary could the Rays afford CC based on a 60mil payroll?
Can’t think we could barely do what we are paying him now, let alone an increase.
by raysfaninminnesota on Sep 3, 2010 12:56 AM EDT reply actions
If were him Ide take that...
but I’m not, I’m a rays fan. He will take the highest bidder aka NOT the Rays… Hopefully DJ can fill some BoZo the clown sized shoes… Doubt that… So they Rays didn’t trade upton to clear aome space? Why?
by slak96u on Sep 3, 2010 2:24 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
love u CC
Bye bye you are a amazing player loved watching you get hits, steal bases, and run down fly balls. It was amazing to watch. Please enjoy the west coast, or tear up the NL… RIP CC
by slak96u on Sep 5, 2010 1:06 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
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