The Rays' DH Belongs to Dan Johnson

It's certainly no secret the Rays have not had great production from their designated hitter (DH) position. Consider this chart of morbid reality:

Essentially the DH race is down to two players: Dan Johnson and the recently acquired Brad Hawpe. The Rays acquired Hawpe after he was designated for assignment by the Rockies. This certainly came as a bit of a surprise to me -- perhaps because I do not follow the Rockies. Since 2006, Hawpe had put up consistently strong numbers. He hit an average of about 25 home runs from 2006 through 2009 and averaged a weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) of around .380 -- or ~25% above league average. Specifically, his OBP was excellent (~.380) and his power was above average (~.500 SLG).

What happened this year that the Rockies would bail on him? In short, he went from ~25% above average to ~0% above average overnight. wOBA from StatCorner shows the sudden descent:

(Courtesy of StatCorner and *Fangraphs.)

Not only did Brad Hawpe's wOBA fall off a cliff, his wOBAr began a steady descent. wOBAr -- which I believe stands for wOBA regressed -- is a predictive statistic which helps us guess how a player has performed despite his outcomes. According to the StatCorner glossary, wOBAr is based on batted ball data:

[wOBAr] is wOBA, but with the hitter's success on batted balls regressed toward his prior averages. League averages are used when the sample size is too small. In [effect], it's PrOPS, but with a player's past history used as the baseline when possible instead of the league...

wOBAr does not smile on Hawpe this season, though it seemed to accurately predict his previous, strong performances. Interestingly, Hawpe's batted ball data is unchanged -- according to both Fangraphs and StatCorner (sites which use different batted ball data). Hawpe's batted ball data has been a picture of consistency, hitting 20-22% line drives every year since 2006.

So what does wOBAr dislike about Hawpe? In short, his un-Hawpe-like discipline:

(Courtesy of Fangraphs.)

Hawpe is swinging more at pitches outside the zone (O-Swing%), and pitchers have obliged his new approach by throwing him garbage out of the zone (Zone%). This seems almost like the habits of player who is pressing -- someone struggling with an injury or worried about job security. Either way, there's a good chance -- since he's still hitting line-drives and fly balls at his career rates -- he could turn it around with some more time.

Dan Johnson on the other hand, has received wOBAr's blessings:

(Courtesy of StatCorner and *Fangraphs.)

It's important to understand that Dan Johnson has not had much of a chance to showcase his talents thus far. It seems likes he has been up with the club, playing and watching pitches all year, but in truth, he's really only had a sliver of playing time. By comparison's, Hawpe has earned nearly a half season-worth of data:

In other words, our data of Johnson at the MLB level is anything but complete or sufficient. That being said, the early signs are good. His wOBAr matches his career best (StatCorner does not have statistics from before 2007) despite that his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is an absurd .179. In the minors in 2008 and 2010, he average a BABIP around .300, and his current Dutton xBABIP is .304 -- implying he has been quite unlucky in his first 70 PAs.

At the same time, though, Hawpe has a career BABIP of .338, but is enduring a .314 BABIP in 2010. His Dutton xBABIP is .337, indicating he has also been a bit unlucky.

Certainly this is an issue where larger swathes of data would benefit us -- as most issues tend to be. But from what we can ascertain, it seems that:

1. Brad Hawpe has been unlucky and may be pressing because of it, and...
2. Hawpe could therefore turn around at a moment's notice.
3. Dan Johnson has not culled much playing time this season, but...
4. Johnson appears to be doing really well through the lens of wOBAr or an xBABIP regression.

(Note that the R-squared for Johnson's regression is so small because of the 0 in year 2009. It aught to be closer to 0.80 or higher.)

So why do I feel that the DH position belongs to Dan Johnson? Here are my reasons in lightning-round, bulleted fashion:

• Hawpe may need some time to re-adjust his approach at the plate. We do not have free time right now.
• Hawpe may be sliding into mediocrity, whereas Johnson has be crushing the ball for the last two years in the minors (2008 and 2010).
• More importantly, Hawpe is adjusting to not only the DH position -- which hurts production -- but also to the American League East -- which kills production. Johnson has spent at least a little time in both positions.
• We have incomplete data on Johnson, but more complete data on Hawpe. I think it would serve the Rays well to explore whether Johnson is a commodity or a replacement player.
• Johnson could be a cheap stop-gap next year or later as we wait for Leslie Anderson -- or whoever will take over first base/DH when Pena is gone. I expect Hawpe will command more money than Johnson.
• Dan Johnson seems like a really nice guy and -- boy -- has he hit some memorable home runs.
• Johnson seems to have gone through a lot of crap to earn a second shot at the bigs.