Orioles Stick it to Shields, Rays Lose 8-4

And with that start, I think James Shields sealed it: there's no friggin' way he's the Rays' number one starter in the playoffs. I've been holding out hope that Shields could turn things around and rebound as the season went along, but despite showing signs of that recently, Shields threw a stinker today; he lasted only 4.1 innings while letting up eight hits and six earned runs, walking one and striking out three. One of those many hits was a homerun, his 30th of the year. He's now let up more homeruns this year than he did all of last season - and last year he pitched 45 more innings.

Maybe I'm being reactionary because statistically, it still looks like Shields should be performing well. His strikeouts are up and his walks are still low, and his homerun rate seems too high to be sustainable. And yet....after watching a game like that, I can't help but feel that something is wrong with him this year. He looks off. Although his walk rate is still low, he missed his spots last night and didn't appear to have the same command he's had in the past (he walked in a run at one point - walked in a run!). His fastball has increased in velocity, but it's hittable and doesn't fool any batter. 

It's odd, because there isn't any one thing we can point to and say is "wrong" with Shields. His fastball has increased in velocity from previous years - and that should be a good thing, right? And still, Shields only threw his fastball 51% of the time last night, low for a starting pitcher; it's not like he's trying to be the second coming of Matt Garza all of a sudden. His change-up is still as effective as ever and he's throwing it increasingly often (31.6% of the time last night with a 20% whiff rate). He's throwing strikes and limiting walks. What gives?

That's an easy question to answer: teams are raking up the hits against him. Some of the hits are trickling through the infield, but some are also well-hit. Three of the hits against Shields last night went for extra bases, including a first-inning solo homerun by Nick Markakis. In that at bat against Markakis, Shields threw exclusively fastballs until Markakis turned on one and crushed it in the rightfield bleachers. Good strategy plan? I don't think so.

Maybe that's what his struggles come back to: pitch selection. There's no way to really measure this, though, so all we can do right now is watch and wait. Hopefully this start is a minor blip as Shields continues to improve - after all, he pitched like Big Game Shields the past few times in a row. Last night was just one start, so fingers crossed that Big Game" shows up at his next start. 

Other Thoughts:

• Matt Joyce was crushing the ball last night. Outside of the one at bat where he struck out, he hit the ball hard every time he was at the plate. His first drive to rightfield was off the end of the bat too much and was caught by Markakis, but he then drilled a double and a homerun out that way later in the game. The Golden Bat of Ulysses strikes again.
• Brad Hawpe had his first hit as a Ray - a homerun out to centerfield in the ninth inning. Sure, it didn't affect the game at all by then, but it was still really refreshing to see. He had to reach down and get the pitch, almost golfing it out of the park, which made the power display more impressive in my mind.
•  John Jaso's lead-off homerun in the first inning was a blast out to rightfield. I didn't know he could hit it that far...
• Jeremy Hellickson came into the game after Shields left, but didn't pitch as well as we're used to seeing. He let up six hits in less than two innings of work and seemed to be sweating more than normal in the limelight. Nerves? Transition to the bullpen? Lack of a Helloween picture posting? It could be any of those reasons, but Helly did at least make one batter look foolish on the night. Nick Markakis was at the plate and Hellickson worked the count to 3-2 before throwing an inside curveball that ate Markakis's bat and spit it on the ground. It was a filthy pitch and so despite all Helly's struggles, he deserves the benefit of the doubt for now.