2011 Draft order almost completley set

by joeybw on Jan 14, 2011 11:40 AM EST

And we are all over it, thanks to BA and Imperalism for this data.

Thanks to BA for most of this. I've filled in the rest to the best of my knowledge

First Round
1. Pirates
2. Mariners
3. Diamondbacks
4. Orioles
5. Royals
6. Nationals
7. Diamondbacks (for failure to sign 2010 first-rounder Barret Loux)
8. Indians
9. Cubs
10. Padres (for failure to sign 2010 first-rounder Karsten Whitson)
11. Astros
12. Brewers
13. Mets
14. Marlins
15. Brewers (for failure to sign 2010 first-rounder Dylan Covey)
16. Dodgers
17. Angels
18. Athletics
19. Red Sox (from Tigers for Victor Martinez, Type A)
20. Rockies
21. Blue Jays
22. Cardinals
23. Nationals (from White Sox for Adam Dunn, Type A)
24. Rays (from Red Sox for Carl Crawford, Type A)
25. Padres
26. Red Sox (from Rangers for Adrian Beltre, Type A)
27. Reds
28. Braves
29. Giants
30. Twins
31. Rays (from Yankees for Rafael Soriano, Type A)
32. Rays
33. Rangers (from Phillies for Cliff Lee, Type A)
Supplemental First Round
34. Nationals (Dunn)
35. Blue Jays (for Scott Downs, Type A, to Angels)
36. Red Sox (Martinez)
37. Rangers (Lee)
38. Rays (Soriano)
39. Rays (Crawford)
40. Rays (Balfour)
41. Phillies (for Jayson Werth, Type A, to Nationals)
42. Red Sox (Beltre)
43. Diamondbacks (for Adam LaRoche, Type B, to Nationals)
44. Mets (for Jose Feliciano, Type B, to Yankees)
45. Rockies (for Octavio Dotel, Type B, to Blue Jays)
46. Blue Jays (for John Buck, Type B, to Marlins)
47. White Sox (for J.J. Putz, Type B, to Diamondbacks)
48. Padres (for Jon Garland, Type B, to Dodgers)
49. Giants (for Juan Uribe, Type B, to Dodgers)
50. Twins (for Orlando Hudson, Type B, to Padres)
51. Yankees (for Javier Vazquez, Type B, to Marlins)
52. Rays (for Joaquin Benoit, Type B, to Tigers)
53. Blue Jays (for Miguel Olivo, Type B, to Mariners)
54. Padres (for Yorvit Torrealba, Type B, to Rangers)
55. Twins (for Jesse Crain, Type B, to White Sox)
56. Rays (for Randy Choate, Type B, to Marlins)
57. Blue Jays (for Kevin Gregg, Type B, to Orioles)
58. Padres (for Kevin Correia, Type B, to Pirates)
59. Rays (for Brad Hawpe, Type B, to Padres)
60. Rays (for Chad Qualls, Type B, to Padres)
Second-Round Changes
66. Phillies (from Nationals for Werth)
74. Blue Jays (from Angels for Downs)
75. Rays (from Athletics for Balfour)
Third-Round Changes
None
Supplemental Third Round
121. Mariners (for failure to sign 2010 third-rounder Ryne Stanek)

Remaining Type A Compensation Free Agents
Starting Pitchers: Carl Pavano (Min).

Remaining Type B Compensation Free Agents
Third Basemen: Felipe Lopez (Bos).
Relief Pitchers: Aaron Heilman (Ari)

So we’d pick 24, 31, 32, 38, 39, 40, 52, 56, 59, 60, 75, and 89 by the time the second round is over

This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.

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Comments

For the 3 remaining guys

Pavano is going back to Minnesota, Lopez is sure to take a minor league deal, his name hasn’t even been mention and Heilman, well he will get a ML deal I guess, a little weird how quiet his market has been.

Under construction

by joeybw on Jan 14, 2011 11:42 AM EST reply actions

Heilman is garbage soaked in kerosene

Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Jan 14, 2011 11:59 AM EST up reply actions

Too tired to spellcheck the title of your post

"I have a formula for excitability actually." - RJ Anderson

by ReasonableDoubt on Jan 14, 2011 11:42 AM EST reply actions

That joke is so tired

Under construction

by joeybw on Jan 14, 2011 11:45 AM EST up reply actions

I believe this is incorrect

Supplemental First Round
34. Nationals (Dunn)
35. Blue Jays (for Scott Downs, Type A, to Angels)
36. Red Sox (Martinez)
37. Rangers (Lee)
38. Rays (Soriano)
39. Phillies (for Jayson Werth, Type A, to Nationals)
40. Red Sox (Beltre)
41. Rays (Crawford)
42. Rays (Balfour)

That should be the correct order for all the Type A guys, then from LaRoche on it looks good

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Jan 14, 2011 11:48 AM EST reply actions

99% how sure it works is

Everyone with a Type A pick gets a pick in draft order, but only one pick. Then every team that has two Type A picks get another one in draft order (this would be Boston and us, so Boston would be ahead). Then every time with a third Type A (just us) gets a pick. Then Type B’s are awarded solely on Elias score

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Jan 14, 2011 11:50 AM EST up reply actions

Hey haters

Dockoftherays.com

The Process Report

by Jason Collette on Jan 14, 2011 11:50 AM EST reply actions 8 recs

Green make this.

A DRaysBay writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum

by BWoodrum on Jan 14, 2011 11:53 AM EST up reply actions

from Gleeman

Oh, and the Rays also have their own second-round pick, which is 88th overall, giving them 12 of the top 88 picks. Based on Victor Wang’s work on draft pick value over at The Hardball Times, those 12 picks are likely worth around $30 million. That won’t help Tampa Bay contend in 2011, but it’ll go a long way toward keeping the farm system stocked for years to come.

Dockoftherays.com

The Process Report

by Jason Collette on Jan 14, 2011 12:20 PM EST reply actions

Kind of a disappointing number, no?

$30M is the value of a stud position player prospect, say Jesus Montero. That’s really nice, but doesn’t it seem like it should be more?

Beyond the Box Score | Facebook | @Sky_Kalkman

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 14, 2011 12:26 PM EST up reply actions

figuring the sandwich picks are $2.6m

$2.6m x 7 = 18.2m
3 1st rounders = 11.8m?

That last number seems a bit low

Dockoftherays.com

The Process Report

by Jason Collette on Jan 14, 2011 12:36 PM EST up reply actions

Most of that is due to the riskiness of the picks.

Mike Trout for instance was a late 1st round pick.

by rglass44 on Jan 14, 2011 4:31 PM EST up reply actions

Some more data, because I like data:

I plugged the first two rounds of picks in Excel, assuming the same order for Rd 1 for round two, with three caveats: I noted the changes listed above, I removed Rd 1 picks from unsigned 2010 picks, and I used Rd 1 original teams. My list got off one slot somewhere (Rays came out 89th instead of 88th) but that’s an extra Rd 2 pick for someone, which really isn’t all that valuable as you’ll see.

Then, I entered the draft picks values from Camden Depot’s research, which estimates WAR in the first six years in MLB based on 1990-1999 drafts. (It does not account for any type of money.) The #1 pick is worth 1000 points, #2 660, etc., kind fo like the NFL draft card.

Anyway, here are the relative strengths of each teams’ draft picks in the 2011 draft, counting round 1, the supp round, and round 2:

Points #Picks Team
1194 12 Rays
1080 2 Pirates
995 4 Diamondbacks
740 2 Mariners
731 6 Padres
692 7 Blue Jays
608 3 Nationals
584 5 Red Sox
510 2 Orioles
485 3 Brewers
455 2 Royals
385 3 Mets
376 4 Twins
355 2 Indians
335 2 Cubs
331 3 Rockies
305 2 Astros
300 3 Rangers
289 3 Giants
275 2 Marlins
260 2 Dodgers
245 3 Phillies
222 2 Cardinals
205 2 Reds
197 2 Braves
178 1 Angels
172 1 Athletics
165 2 White Sox
155 2 Yankees
70 1 Tigers

Rays, not surprisingly, come out on top. But I think it is surprising how close the Pirates and Diamondbacks are. The Pirates on the strength of having the first pick, and the Diamondbacks on the strength of the 3rd and 7th.

Beyond the Box Score | Facebook | @Sky_Kalkman

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 14, 2011 12:52 PM EST reply actions

If you find any errors, yell.

Beyond the Box Score | Facebook | @Sky_Kalkman

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 14, 2011 3:15 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks Sky this is going to take me a minute to absorb

You also have to think that with fewer picks, albeit higher value per pick, the Pirates/Dbacks won’t need to commit nearly the financial resources here. Thanks again for the hard work.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Jan 14, 2011 4:07 PM EST up reply actions

That's factored in I assume.

Because it uses the surplus value research Wang did (I think it was surplus and not straight WAR dollars).

by rglass44 on Jan 14, 2011 4:33 PM EST up reply actions

Not much work from my end.

I stole impreialism32’s work, who stole BA’s work.

The money aspect is definitely missing here. The point values are based solely on WAR in the first six years of team control. Very likely that certain types of picks get under/overpaid. I’d actually guess that the better the pick, the better a deal they are, even though they cost more money to sign.

Also, Bryan Smith mentioned on twitter that the upcoming draft class is very good, but the top fifteen picks are going to be pitcher-heavy. Generally pitchers are overrated. So it might make more sense to drop those guys down a bit, say the top fifteen picks are on par with past years, but picks 15-30 have some crazy pitching available. Don’t know.

Beyond the Box Score | Facebook | @Sky_Kalkman

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 14, 2011 4:37 PM EST up reply actions