Rangers Power? NO; Fear The Rays Power
by BWoodrum on Oct 1, 2011 3:17 PM EDT
in Features & Analysis
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PrintThe TBS announcers -- and frankly any one who gets a microphone in front of their gab -- seems to dote on the Rangers power, talking endlessly about the amazing Rangers offense and how Nelson Cruz bats whatever.
True and admirable things: (a) the Rangers were 2nd in the league in homers (210 to the Rays' 172), (b) the Rangers were 3rd in the league with a .177 ISO (compared to the Rays' .155); and the Rangers tied for 2nd best wRC+ in the league (113 to the Rays 103).
However, if you define power as bases per hit instead of bases per at bat, then something else shines through: The power of the Rays.
Power Factor (PF) is a statistic that my pal Lewie Pollis brought to my attention earlier this year. Hanselman then took a deeper look at PF with respect to the Rays, and the results seemed intuitive and correct.
PF is different from ISO (Isolated Power) in that ISO -- which is SLG minus batting average -- is essentially extra base hits per at bat, while PF -- which is ISO divided by batting average -- looks at power per hit, which helps nullify BABIP fluctuations and the anti-patience bias in ISO.
According to PF, the Rays hit for more power than the Rangers, ranking fourth in the league with a .652 PF. The Rangers, meanwhile, are seventh in the league with a .625 PF. This makes sense: The Rangers, whose offense lives and dies on the ability to put balls in play, should receive undue love from ISO, whereas the Rays, whose offense waits for walks more than most (second highest walk rate in the league), can do little right in ISO's cold, statistical eyes.
In other words, the Rangers have a LOT more hits than the Rays (almost 300 more), but they hit more singles, the Rays hit more POWER:
But we still have one more confounding element in play here: That little replica of a real stadium they call Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.
One quick and most definitely dirty way of controlling for the ballpark effect is to look at each team's away PF. There are problems inherent in this method, such as the Rays played away games in Arlington and the Rangers played away games in Tropicana Field (and the unbalanced schedule means the Rays played more games in New York than the Rangers).
But the effect seems too large to be mere stadium bias:
Not only do the Rays have the fourth-best away PF, but they are on a plateau of their own.
I suspect that, this series, we need to be talking less about the power Rangers, more about the Rays' power.
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This “Away Power Factor” article is perhaps the best thing that I have seen on DRaysBay in years. Very insightful.
Wow! Thanks.
I think my colleagues have been killing it lately, so I wouldn’t go that far, but thank you anyway.
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
I like it a lot, thanks for taking the time.
Bear in mind that “power” is not a substitute for overall performance as three singles are still better than one homer. It’s nice to know that on a batter-by-batter basis the Rays can have just as much, if not more, power as you’ve shown, but that doesn’t necessarily correlate to a better offense. Here are the correlations in 2011 between some of these important statistics and runs scored for all MLB teams:
wOBA is still your best bet to predict how many runs a team will score.
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 1, 2011 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yes, definitely. As wRC+ shows, the Rays are still 10 points behind the Rangers offensively,
even after you correct for stadiums. But the gap is still WAY closer than the mainstream media wants to portray it.
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
Absolutely, I have to say that it blew my mind that the Rangers were last in striking out. Always seems the narrative is that they hit with a bunch of power and strike out a bunch
People also don’t want to realize that the Trop is such a pitcher’s park.
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
I would not be surprised to find (I don't know how to find it) that the Rangers are last in the league in 3-2 counts.
They seem like a swing early and often crew. Which should play well in the generous foul ground of the Tropicana outfield.
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
*in reaching 3-2 counts.
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
That's the impression that I get, though haven't really pored over it yet, check this out
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2011-pitches-batting.shtml
Pretty low on P/PA, pretty low on strikeout looking%, would be nice if they looked at 3-2 in addition to 3-1 and the others.
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
Impressive. Texas is tied for first with a 38% balls in play rate.
Texas, meet our defense.
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
That's exactly what they do
They simply don’t work counts and will hack when they see their pitch
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Oct 1, 2011 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions
How much of this is due to the dimensions of the park, and how much is due to the fact that the Rays have excellent pitching and defense and not-very-good offense, suppressing scoring on both sides of the ball?
†††If you love Dan Johnson and are 100% proud of it, copy this and make it your signature!†††
If you have the numbers...
What is the correlation with OPS? Always curious to see how close wOBA and OPS really are.
.97, but a lot of that is coincidental, it's still bad math and I prefer to never see it again
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
In all fairness, it comes down to how you define power.
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
In all seriousness, tho, this isn't limited to baseball
There are a hundred different ways to look at power from a physics standpoint. Average power, peak power, instantaneous power (to say nothing of measuring the power of different types, e.g. electrical, mechanical). And since baseball is the most scientific sport, there ought to be a hundred different ways to look at baseball power too.
Also, love the headline, reminds me of this
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 1, 2011 3:58 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Hahaha!
I miss old Simpsons. :(
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
Also would have accepted "Power Rangers? More like Power RAYngers!"
†††If you love Dan Johnson and are 100% proud of it, copy this and make it your signature!†††
Haha, that's a good one.
I thought about including Power Rangers in the title, but never got comfortable with it.
I blame the shadows.
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
This is a great post
Something I might add: SLG (and by extension, ISO) presumes that a HR is worth 4 times as much as a hit, and twice as much as a double, and so on. We can understand intuitively how this historical accident came to be, but that’s not how those hits actually correlate with scoring. You can see this in the formula for linear weights (and anything that’s derived from LW).
Here's what I've got for wOBAcon which is another way to look at power by appropriately weighting each base hit and dividing by all balls in play
I get a correlation between wOBAcon and runs of 0.95 between wOBAcon and runs, fyi.
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 1, 2011 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
League average of .353, also
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
No weaknesses
If you're watching a blowout, you can pass the time by counting the double teapots.
Samurai Champloo > Macross
I openly admit that this is some solid analysis.
I don't always think of epic collapses, but when I do, I prefer the 2011 Red Sox and Braves. Stay salty my friends.
Aw shucks.
* bashful smile *
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
I'm sure that comment means little to you, but considering how nasty I've been about the recent stuff, it's only fair that I mention when I like something on the FP.
I don't always think of epic collapses, but when I do, I prefer the 2011 Red Sox and Braves. Stay salty my friends.
Dobber is Dignan:
http://youtu.be/T9MNaD3iA90?t=3m22s
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
No, seriously, praise from past detractors means more than from friends.
I really do value your input.
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
Rays power v Rangers power
For years, I’ve watched every Ranger game possible, and this year, due to the magic of my XM radio, I’ve been able to follow my new, other favorite team, the Rays on a day-to-day basis. I don’t know if there’s a stat for this phenomenon, but the Rangers, for the past 2-3 years, simply crush the back end of the opponent’s rotation. Nobody kills mediocre pitching like the Rangers. OTOH, the Rays seem as likely to have a good game against the opponent’s best pitchers. Good performances against Sabathia, Lester, and Verlander illustrate this point, and I think, a basic difference in these two teams.
Don't forget the flipside of that
Where the Rays are also prone to making some garbage pitcher look like a total stud. For example, Dallas Braden, who I hear once threw a perfect game against some team that may or may not have been the Rays.
by ChiBurbRaysFan on Oct 1, 2011 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Per BA looking at how much homegrown talent each of the playoff teams has
1. Tampa Bay Rays, 28.1 WAR (12.1 hitters, 16.0 pitchers)
There should be no surprise here: no team can match Tampa Bay’s homegrown core, which includes a young pitching staff that is the envy of teams around the league.
With David Price, James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis, their entire starting rotation during the regular season is homegrown, as is Game 1 starter Matt Moore. Alex Cobb, a fourth-round pick in 2006, provided depth as well when the Rays needed him. Evan Longoria, Desmond Jennings and B.J. Upton are all two-way threats, and the Rays have made smart trades to upgrade their lineup in acquiring Ben Zobrist, Matt Joyce and Sean Rodriguez.
The Rays have squeezed the most out of their nickels in free agency to add Johnny Damon, Casey Kotchman and Kyle Farnsworth, but the majority of this team was built through one area: the draft. Finishing last in the AL East for nine of their first 10 seasons of existence gave the Rays several premium draft picks, which certainly helped, but Shields, Hellickson, Davis, Jennings, Moore and Cobb were all picked after the first round.
Tampa Bay has quite a bit in common with the early-2000s Athletics, another small-revenue team built largely on homegrown talent. The A’s had a gifted core of homegrown pitchers (Barry Zito, Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Rich Harden), a star Gold Glove third baseman (Eric Chavez), and like Upton, a talented although more advanced offensive homegrown player up the middle (Miguel Tejada).
After making the playoffs for the third time in four years, can the Rays sustain their success or will they follow the same pattern as the A’s? That franchise sets a good blueprint of how things can fall apart for a small-revenue organization.
A’s homegrown WAR, wins by year
2000: 26.1 WAR, 91 wins
2001: 35.8 WAR, 102 wins
2002: 27.6 WAR, 103 wins
2003: 32.8 WAR, 96 wins
2004: 21.9 WAR, 91 wins
2005: 27.5 WAR, 88 wins
2006: 17.7 WAR, 93 wins
2007: 13.8 WAR, 76 wins
2008: 8.1 WAR, 75 wins
2009: 10.7 WAR, 75 wins
2010: 13.2 WAR, 81 wins
2011: 10.3 WAR, 74 wins
The draft and the international market (most notably Tejada and catcher Ramon Hernandez) were tremendous sources of talent for the A’s, who produced teams with even more homegrown talent than the 2011 Rays early in the decade and even more homegrown pitching in 2002 and 2003. The problem for the A’s is clear from the chart: those plentiful drafts and international signings stopped coming, and the franchise stopped producing homegrown talent.
For the Rays to avoid the same pitfalls, they will have to continue to draft well. The international market hasn’t been a factor for the Rays, though they’re improving there at the lower levels of the system. With Longoria, Jennings, Joyce, Price, Hellickson and Moore under control cheaply for several years, they already have an outstanding young nucleus to build around.
Competing annually in the AL East is a greater challenge than doing so in the AL West, but the Rays have the potential to extend their run as contenders for years.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/prospect-pulse/2011/2612417.html
12.1 of our 30.1 bWAR for positional players comes from homegrown talent, and 16.0 of our 18.4 bWAR comes from homegrown talent. That’s 28.1 out of 48.5 bWAR or 58%. Pretty awesome.
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
I imagine a large reason for that is because we rarely swing trade-deadline trades.
Over the last four seasons, these non-trades have really added up.
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
such as
Jason Bay for Jeff Niemann and Reid Brignac in 2008?
Guys
It would be helpful if we cut/pasted less of articles like this in the future. Including the link is great, and BA are good guys, but a lesser site would be rightfully screaming about this much of their content being cut out of an article.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Oct 1, 2011 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, that's a good point.
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
This is really cool.
I still fear the Rangers lineup, but I didn’t know we had that type of power. Also, I had no idea that our walk rate had gotten back up to the top. That happened quietly. I now vote to not fire Shelton.
Haha, me too.
I was shocked to see them so high on BB%. I can only remember us having such a terrible offense through the first months of the season.
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
He also may have finally fixed Upton!!!
Tools Whore
Great Stuff
Both the post and the comments .
DRaysBay posters, sorry, but even if you don't mean anything by it, you're kill-on-sight for now. by Ben Buchanan on Sep 29, 2011 12:14 AM EDT
Thanks.
And agreed.
It feels like DRB is firing on all cylinders right now.
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
This article sucks....
Someone had to say something to end the giant reach-around here :)
Seriously, really enjoyed this — the away power factor graph really brings it home.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
Excellent! Thanks! (Well, for the stuff after the first sentence.)
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
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