Community Offseason Predictions

i think it’s far more likely they turn shields. Gets more expensive, coming off career year, and would be worth a total haul. THAT’S his style.

1. Rays will target catcher as a primary need. Maddon being a former catcher and valuing defense, I see the Rays adding either Ramon Hernandez on a 1 year deal, or trading for Rockies Chris Iannetta. Iannetta had an OBP vs LHP of over .410, and has an OPS vs LHP of higher than .985 in 2 of last 3 seasons. Hernandez has hit .288 or better vs LHP in last 3 seasons. SS will be a half-season of S-Rod/Brignac until Beckham comes up in July/Aug.

2. The Rays payroll will reflect their opportunistic view. If Friedman can add someone he feels is significant enough to justify the payroll jump, he’ll have the wiggle room he needs. I’m going to say yes, but unless you know what player is out there, it’s hard to say. I don’t think the Rays resign Damon, unless no other option available. For a low-cost move, I’d sign Magglio Ordonez to DH. He still wants to play, but can’t play the field anymore. But he can still hit lefties and hit them well. Even in a bad year in 2011 Ordonez hit, .292/.331/.385/.716. In 2010, .371/.457/.714/1.171. In 2009, .352/.413/.524/.937

3. Upton’s hot stretch towards the end of the season was a big boost to his trade value. I say the Rays package him with Jeff Niemann and acquire Logan Morrison from the Marlins. Either way, I think he’s gone. The rays need his money to fill off-season holes. I also think Friedman signs David DeJesus for his bargain-basement move of the year. In spite of “off-year” with BABIP a primary culprit (more than 40 points below his avg), DeJesus still posted a 2.2 WAR season. This appears to be his floor, with potential of a 4 WAR season (which he’s done twice)as a ceiling. Excellent defense, excellent contact hitter, and capable of posting 10 SB, with a good OBP, sounds like a Rays player to me. I would also love it if the Rays brought back Johnny Gomes for a part-time lefty masher role. In 2011, .311/.407/.456/.863. In 2010, .285/.378/.479/.857. In 2009, .307/.369/.545/.914.

4. Somehow, someway, the Rays will acquire a 1B via trade. If the Rays can acquire Logan Morrison, then he would slide into 1B.

5. I’m going to guess Jeff Niemann, especially since he’s arb eligible.

Rays address LHP with Iannetta, Ordonez, and Gomes. 1B of current and future in Morrison. Solid all-around value in DeJesus. All for a cost of around $15 mil or less, and subtract Upton’s contract and you are at a plus of around $7-8.

“It’s great from what I hear,” he said. "It’s a good situation to be involved in. Who doesn’t want to be involved in a great situation where everything goes the right way?"

Ortiz says there’s “too much drama” in Boston these days and acknowledged that he’s thinking about moving on. "I don’t know if I want to be part of this drama for next year."

So..

How about we get him $10-12M/yr for 2 years?

His stat line is .309 .398 .554 OPS.953 for this season.
Against TB, Ortiz did .285 .397 .572 OPS.970 in 166 games.
In Tropicana Field, he did .265 .390 .587 OPS.977 in 80 games.

Let Damon walk and we only need to pay extra $5-6mil, with huge
jump on offense. Then we get LoMo or Alonso w Niemann package.
Despite some holes in SS, C (which I believe there would be
some improvements as we will not see full-time Brignac on SS)
I bet we would have some offenses to compete at the top level.

1)Only way a SS is brought in is if it is via trade. Marco Scutaro is the only free agent option I can find, and Red Sox have an option on him.
More likely that Rays go after a Catcher like Ramon Hernandez, a Molina, or roll the dice on Doumit.
Prediction-Rays bring in a Catcher to compete with Chirinos/Lobaton/Jaso

2) Payroll will be slightly over $45 million. Of course, if Shields or BJ are dealt, it could be below.

3)BJ depends on Stu and the payroll limitations. I’m guessing he is back for one more yr

4)No on Kotch… he’ll get a few million from someone… way too much for a guy primed for regression. Prediction- 1b could be a guy picked up via trade or FA. But I’m thinking Carlos Pena may be an option for some reason.

5)I honestly have no idea what direction they’ll go. It sounds great to say Niemann or Davis, but how much value do they have. Friedman is a sell high guy, so Shields makes sense. But what about Price? He’s a Super 2 that will get expensive quickly. Prediction- Friedman deals Niemann…. Price, Shields, Moore, and Helly is too sexy to pass up.

5)

5)

AF is going to have an awesome and busy winter. Both shields and upton get traded. We also trade niemann.

We make an offer to the nats: upton for their catcher, Wilson ramos straight up.

Shields goes to the highest bidder and we get some more ammunition to make some multiple team trades happen.

Everybody wins, a d the Rays sign big papi.

Our offense scores 5.5 runs per game next year and the pitching continues to do it’s thing. Everyone is looking up at us in the AL East

Side note, I like the makeup of the Logan Morrison kid. He’s a bit outspoken, but hes got some pop in that bat.
1. Jennings cf
2 zobrist 2b
3. Longoria 3B
4. Big papi dh
5. LoMo 1b
6 Joyce RF
7. new catcher TBA
8. Briggy/ S-Rodss
9. Guyer in LF

When it comes to the trade market at least, this is how everything AF does turns out.

Trade Shields to Reds and Upton to Nats, Fill positional(and bullpen) needs and begin saving money for future arbitration for Price and small escalating deals for Hellickson and Moore. Money saved also goes to signing Carlos Beltran for one year and 10 million w/option or two seasons for 18. He becomes the Rays RF’er.(gets DH days when needed). Add Neimann or Davis to either deal and add depth and future needs(Grandal, Bray, Yormin Rodriquez Lombardozzi, Marrero, Henry Rodriquez). Sign Doumit to DH and play some catcher.

Jennings CF
Zobrist 2nd
Longoria 3rd
Beltran RF
Alonso 1st
Doumit DH
Joyce LF
Ramos C
Rodriquez/Brignac SS

1) I think its much more likely they make an upgrade at catcher than shortstop. Both positions seem slim on the FA market, so if it happens, it will be via trade whether it be Iannetta, Grandal, Ramos, Soto. Then let Jaso/Chininos/Lobaton battle it out in ST. I think they stick with S-Rod and Brignac one more season waiting for Lee.

2) This question is always tricky because it depends on the value Friedman can get. If he’s able to get a great deal (ala Soriano) regardless of their contract, I think he takes it. For example someone like Quentin could be had for very little as long as we pick up the contract. Even though we have some raises, I think we’ll get enough money off the books (Upton, Shopp, Damon) that it will break right around 45 mil.

3) I think he’ll be traded. He finished up the season very strong so I really dont know if his value will be any higher. Trade market is much better for him right now than it was mid-season. Hopefully teams buy into the change he made to his stride.

4) Kotch will be gone unless plans A through Z fall through. I see way too many cards on the table regarding trades that I dont see how the Rays cant get one of these guys through an Upton or SP trade. I would love a Lomo trade but would settle for something involving Alonso, Ike Davis, etc.

5) I think Niemann is the better pitcher right now, but Davis still has the higher upside. Further, I think his longterm deal only increases his value. I think Davis is gone and possibly one of Torres/Archer.

..not only into young, cheap and under controlled ML ready players that should improve the team for 2012 but for the next 4-5 years. And the money saved over the next couple of seasons by moving them could go into being able to sign the one big bat for a proven power hitting FA, IMO.

1. I’d say <50% chance the Rays bring back Shoppach for less than his option. Other than that, no C or SS is signed other than major-league minimums and/or minor-league deals with ST NRIs.

2. Payroll >$45MM. All signs point to the FO looking at 2012 as the year to compete, particularly if they can’t get a long-term deal done with Price.

3. 90+% or more that BJ is traded. Kansas City is such an obvious fit.

4. <20% that the Rays re-sign Kotchman. My gut is that the Orioles or some equivalent team gives Kotchman an idiotic 3/21 deal (or even more).

5. Rays trade Shields if the market stars align and they can get a deal that exceeds, say, the 2008 Erik Bedard-to-Seattle deal (which netted the O’s Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Chris Tillman, Kam Mickolio and Tony Butler), which is to say at least 2 A-level prospects and additional interesting ones.

Failing that, the Rays will trade one of Niemann/Davis/Cobb — as the rumored deal to St. Louis made clear, I think the Rays view these guys pretty interchangeably.

First, I think the Rays should bring back Peralta as long as the price isnt too high (3 mil?). Juan Cruz should only be brought back if they arent able to sign/acquire anyone who is an upgrade.

There a couple players coming back from injury that always interest the Rays like Broxton, Neshek, Padilla. Neshek was dominant his first few years in Minn but then had surgery and made his way back with the Padres last year. Padilla really interest me as a reliever. I remember watching him briefly pitch in relief for the Dodgers and they were going on about how he could really revive his career in the pen. Broxton’s price could probably be too high for the Rays, but you never know.

Then there is our own JP Howell. I know he looked very awful at times last year, buts it might be worth a chance to see if he can regain his form. Maybe they could get him on a minor league invite?

Jason Frasor is apparently the odd man out in Chicago and they are looking to possibly sign and trade him.

Finally, there is good ole Michael Wuertz. Had a horrible year last season but besides walks, horrible ERA seems to be a fluke. Could probably get him on a minor league deal too.

Any others that jump out?

I mentioned Jorge Posada in the other thread; he hit .269/.348/.466 versus right-handers last year and could form a platoon with Russ Canzler.

There’s also Jason Kubel, who has the advantage of being 50 years younger than Posada (he’ll be 30 in 2012) and hit .283/.341/.443 versus righties last year (career .833 OPS versus right-handers).

1. I think theyll probably keep what we have in house. It would be nice if we could sign Ramon Hernandez for catcher and POSSIBLY Elvis Andrus for SS. He’s hittin free agency this offseason so if we act quick and offer him multi year maybe 4 or 5 years at 12/15 we might be able to get him i dunno.

2. I think payroll stays around 45-50m what with trades AF will make and freein up money

3. Yes, but we trade him at the deadline

4. They sign either LoMo or Alonso for Niemann and prospects

5. Niemann

Would you rather have Pena or Kotchman, and do you think DanJo gets another shot after his homerun?
Looks like Cobb and the Game 1 playoff starter are MLB ready. Would they really send Moore back to the minors after beating the Yanks? Someone has to go to the pen and I think Niemann had success there. I doubt they trade the young Cobb and Davis and Niemann don’t have much value.
Really don’t want to give up Shields and I think the Reds are just trying to raise Alonso’s value after moving him to the OF so he wouldn’t be blocked and now impyling hes the 1b of the future with the Votto trade rumors. If we can can get Alonso and Grandal it would help though and I think Mesoraco is untouchable.
To fill the Manny role do you think they might go after a Vlad, Thome, Ortiz?
Just some other guys that might fit I like Wily Mo Pena then theres Izzy and if noone gives Kazmir a shot it could be good to sign him to minor deal.

Well I’m thinking out of the bullpen, could be an upgrade over Howell.

im lookin forward to see if he can contribute at the major league level

Anyway,

Shields —→ Alonso and Mesoraco/Grandal.

BJ —→ Prospects/Young Bullpen Arms

Let Johnny, Shoppach, Howell and Kotch walk.

That frees up 20+ mil right there.

Move DJ to center, sign Josh Willingham to play left.

Sign Doumit to DH/1B/C.

And swap Price fore Shields, since the Rays, realistically, could hold onto Shields for longer than Price, since he’s going to get real expensive real fast.