Is Willingham a Fit in Tampa Bay?
The Tampa Bay Rays head into the offseason with a few holes that need to be filled. The census among fans is to trade one or two of our plethora of starting pitching options in order to fill the voids in the lineup.
Last week I covered the catcher conundrum and this week I want to take a look at a few right handed bats that just might be able to contribute and fill a need at first base or designated hitter.
Now, I am not a fan of full-time designated hitters but I do realize that I am in the minority. With Damon having a less-than-stellar season as a full time DH last year and with Casey Kotchman a free agent coming off of a season where he hit over .300 and played excellent defense, the Rays may be looking in another direction.
The first name that popped into my head was Josh Willingham. Willingham will start next season at the age of 33 and is coming off a season where he hit a career high 29 homeruns. But, Willingham also set a career high in strikeout rate at 26.6%, a far cry from his career high of 20.7% in 2009.
Willingham's 9.9% walk rate looks good but not when you realize it's his lowest rate since his first full season when he walked 9.7% of the time. Willingham also set a career low .350 wOBA which coincided with his career low in OBP and AVG. He also had his worst base running season at -2.7 Bsr.
But, some general managers will look at his career rates and career high in homeruns and possibly overpay for the guy who is generally a 2-2.5 fWAR player. He may not be an option the Rays consider unless he can be had for two years and roughly $10M. So, what other options are out there that can hit left handed pitching and the Rays can afford?
There is the fan favorite Jonny Gomes who mashed lefties to the tune of .311/.407.456 last year and has a career line of .281/.376/.503 against south paws. Gomes also is a decent base runner with a career +3.9 Bsr but has never played first and would be relegated to DH unless he learned the position very quickly. Gomes is a decent option to fill a bench role only.
Conor Jackson could be had for very cheap, possibly a minor league deal with an invite to spring training, but he has lost all of his moderate power. He would be a good option on said deal but I would not expect much more than a decent glove and below-average offense.
One name that has always intrigued me is Scott Hairston. He can play all three out field positions and has hit lefties fairly well with a .274/.328/.486 line. But, he has never played first and to put him at DH would be a waste of his defensive value.
My favorite option, outside of a good deal on Willingham, is Andruw Jones. Yes, he will be 35 early next season but he fills a much needed hole in the Rays offense.
Jones is not the Hall-of-Fame caliber player he once was but he is a very undervalued asset the Rays can afford. Jones has power. He has an ISO of .246-.255-.247 the past three seasons and his walk rates in those three seasons are the three highest of his career, with each season being higher than 13%.
Jones can play a corner outfield spot still, and has played a little first base but his most likely role would be to DH and get a few innings in a corner outfield spot.
Jones may not be an everyday player anymore but the Rays need a right-handed bat with patience and power. Jones fits that bill and he absolutely crushes left handed pitching. He hit .286/.384/.540 last year against them and hit .256/.373/.558 against them in 2010.
There are other good options out there, especially left handed bats, but I believe the Rays need a right-handed bat that can crush lefties at well-below market value and Jones is a viable option.
The best option for a first base bat would be via trade but that still would not stop me from offering Jones a contract to play for the Rays in 2012 and play every day against left handed pitching.
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I think his Type A FA status is a huge non-starter
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Oct 21, 2011 11:18 AM EDT reply actions
Good call.
I completely missed that. It kinda makes me glad in a way. His trends in rates were scaring me a bit.
I really like him -- I bet Philly goes that route
They need a RH pop bat and they don’t care about defense
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Oct 21, 2011 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Philly probably puts Dom Brown in the OF
I highly doubt they sign a big name
by benderbrodriguez on Oct 21, 2011 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Mayberry to 1B, Vic in CF, Brown in RF
Still need a LF
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Oct 21, 2011 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Duhhhhh
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Oct 21, 2011 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Amaro said he wants Brown to get more time in AAA
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Oct 21, 2011 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
A's need to be kind & trade him to us to avoid the Type-A
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Oct 21, 2011 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Matsui didn't even make A or B -- he intrigues me for that reason
I know he’ll be 38, but that park really hurt his power numbers
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Oct 21, 2011 11:20 AM EDT reply actions
You don't think the Trop would hurt his power numbers as well?
Not sure what his splits are but can he hit LHP?
Not as much -- the foul ground in Oakland is another problem
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Oct 21, 2011 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
The foul ground is a major obstacle for all hitters playing there.
I just figured his age and the fact both parks are pitcher friendly would kill his power.
The Trop will hurt the power of whoever we get.
But considering how much Oakland probably hurt Matsui’s power, it makes me feel okay about his true talent level.
by Whelk on Oct 21, 2011 12:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Matsui still only had a .409 SLG away.
And worse OBP away. The age makes it hard to gauge what his true talent level is.
Lots of love for Matsui out there.
I just see better options. Wouldn’t be upset if he were here but I also like DHs that can play the field a bit. That’s just me.
well one had somewhat unforeseen circumstances that led to getting nothing from him.
somewhat unforeseen.
my hesitation to not pencil in a FT DH is due to the incredible flexibility of our players. assuming we dont trade BJ, we have 3 guys taht could play all 3 OF positions. we also have two infielders that can play pretty much anywhere on the diamond and excel. this flexibility lessens the need for having designated position playing bench guys freeing up roster space for someone who only hits (or is supposed to).
Good call.
I personally like the DH spot to be a rotating door to give players a break from the turf and field. Like a half day off.
I had a dream the other night that the hammer signed.
Now that I think about it, the rays don’t usually pay a guy to be a DH (didn’t we sign Damon to play left?). Add to that he is a type A FA, I don’t see it happening.
I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta
by sc_monsta1015 on Oct 21, 2011 11:48 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
I think most of our holes will be filled via trade.
I’m thinking Shields for Alonso and Mesoraco (is he big league ready?). Then if Upton is traded, maybe for Clippard and Ian Desmond? Brandon Guyer can play left, and, oh wait, we still need a DH. Dammit
I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta
by sc_monsta1015 on Oct 21, 2011 11:53 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Burrell was a full-time DH.
Manny or Damon were gonna be full-time. I personally hate full-time DHs. I also don’t see Willingham happening, even if he weren’t a type-A. His rate stats took a hit last year and people will ovepay for the power.
I like Guyer/Fuld in LF if Upton is traded. Still would like Jones. He can DH and play RF for Joyce against LHP. Use the DH spot as a rotation to keep legs fresh from the turf.
That's true, we did sign Manny to be a DH
I guess I was trying to say I also hate full time DH’s
I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta
by sc_monsta1015 on Oct 21, 2011 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
It's hard to express things from a phone
I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta
by sc_monsta1015 on Oct 21, 2011 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions
The hard part about trading Upton is the team trading for him is only trading for one year of control.
I feel it’s hard to get fair value for him right now. Either the Rays get a lucky trade partner or under sell him. Or lock him up.
so we trade him for an expensive rp whose arm is about to fall off and a replacement level ss?
id rather get 4 wins from upton.
Upton to the Nats
For Ramos and Henry Rodriguez, good god yes!
by BUCSwillDOMINATE on Oct 21, 2011 3:03 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Nats won't do that.
5 years of control for an above-average catcher and only 1 year of Upton at $7-$8M. We’d have to add a prospect.
My bad, I didn't mention that my Rays offseason plans include trading Shields to the Reds for Alonso/one of their catcher
I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta
by sc_monsta1015 on Oct 22, 2011 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I was looking it up the other day and I find it interesting that Gomes and Hamilton were selected in the same draft and Hamilton only has a mere 5 more homers than Gomer in his career
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
Considering Gomes has played every year since then
And Hamilton like 5 good years, that makes sense
I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta
by sc_monsta1015 on Oct 21, 2011 11:58 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Gomes has always had the power.
I still like him against LHP. Oddly ehough, he had a positive UZR last year. Doubt that happens ever again, though.
My order of all-bat guys:
Papi
Willingham
Thome
Giambi
Mags
Matsui
Rivera
Vlad
Drew
Cuddyer
Doumit
Kubel
Damon
Posada
Wily Mo Pena
Gomes
Jones
Bradley
Papi and Hammer are probably non-starters. Other than that, that’s pretty much my order considering cost unless someone wants to overpay these jokers.
Some of these guys could see the field (Drew). If we’re talking ideal fit I’d want Swisher, but he’s also type A and has an option. Looks like Papi and Cuddyer are also type A, so I guess scratch them.
I'd much rather have Cuddyer or Kubel overall those bums but the first two if we're not talking money and it appears you aren't
Cuddyer gives us another Zobrist at the dish. That’s all this team needs is another good hitter as a great one is off the table
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 21, 2011 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
You didn't seem to factor that in if you have Willingham as your 2nd best bat
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 21, 2011 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Guy kills lefties and would be league average or better against righties, I don't like the price tag, but he's a legit bat
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 21, 2011 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
even the Twins guys I know don't want to bring Cuddyer back
overrated run producer
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Oct 21, 2011 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions
All I care about is that .374 career wOBA against lefties and league average or better against righties
I’d sign him to a 2/15, but it’s not my money and I don’t think that would do cut it anyway
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 21, 2011 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Well it includes an entire career of plate appearances including when he was a rookie, if we want to look at last 3:
v. L that’s .404 wOBA, 153 wRC+, second best to Bautista http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=y&type=1&season=2011&month=13&season1=2009&ind=0&team=0&players=0
v. R that’s .327 wOBA, 101 wRC+, basically league average If he were to do that with 40% of his 600 plate appearances against lefties then you’re talking an overall wOBA of .358. This team could use that even if he rotates as Joyce’s sidekick with time at 1B/DH.
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 21, 2011 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I would love this.
Especially if we keep Upton and Joyce is spending time at DH.
by Whelk on Oct 21, 2011 1:40 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Plus he's white and played with Beej growing up on that ridiculous AAU team that also had Zimmerman, Wright, Justin Upton, among others
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 21, 2011 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions
My old neighbor played first base on the team and he said that they'd let Justin play 2B some games and he was still the best player on the team at 12 or 13
You’re right that Cuddyer preceded these guys, my b
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 21, 2011 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
This is good
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1145707/index.htm
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 21, 2011 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Where are you from?
I played under Townson as well (their coach) but I am a year younger than Justin and actually got to watch these studs play.
Must have been awesome, this was a neighbor when I lived in Orlando, he grew up with all them boys as well
Must have been pretty exciting for you
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 22, 2011 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions
You're seeing what you want to. I can't change that no matter how many factual numbers I use
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 21, 2011 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
one big thing for me in all this is how passable canzlers defense is in the corners (except 3rd where hell never play).
It's bad man....bad
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Oct 21, 2011 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I've only seen him over maybe 30 innings, but no range, no arm, no instincts
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 21, 2011 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Jones that low?
Three straight years of 13% or higher walk rates. 131 wRC+ last year and 124 the year before. Crushes LHP. And has +7.7 UZR in the corner OF spots over his last 1729 innings there. He’s not all-bat.
hes low on my all-bat list because hes redundant. hes a lefty masher whose only position is COF. thats what guyer should be.
we have another righty bat that should be serviceable in canzler too. a righty platoon player is low on my to-do list.
I really hope we don't go into the season expecting Guyer and Canzler to be league average or better bats
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 21, 2011 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
.258 .323 .408 .730
id be shocked if one of them doesnt best that and surprised if both didnt. i also think guyer will provide + defense in the corner.
The problem is if they flame out and we don't have another option, I think Guyer could do that, but I have no confidence in Canzler
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 21, 2011 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
It would be nice to have a Plan B or make Canzler Plan B
jonahkeri jonahkeri
Josh Freeman refund please.
Yeah, I guess that's what I'm saying is that I'd like to keep Canzler the plan B while rolling the dice on a more established player
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 21, 2011 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Well if we're trading Upton then one or both would be getting that time
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 21, 2011 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Many here would like nothing better than to place 3-4 rookies out there and allow them to win in the ALE
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
we have no idea how Jennings does from day 1
besides Damon was the opening day LFer
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
Bogus, Jennings was ready by Day 1
We held him back to avoid another year of arbitration.
by BUCSwillDOMINATE on Oct 21, 2011 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions
you read this site as much as i
i don’t need to name names for the masses who were ‘all in’ on Jennings and Brignac
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
It seems like we'll have these options in case another, better, option shit's the bed
If we’re counting on Canzler and he fails, where do we go from there? It’s similar to counting on DanJo, but having Kotch on as a back up plan.
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 21, 2011 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
does that mean youre trying to bring in guys for the short-side of the platoon? im much more interested in a lefty bat.
I'd like to see a big righty bat to a) platoon with Joyce, b) rotate in at DH, c) play a little 1B when needed
You can have a guy as the “short side of the platoon” and still get him 600 ABs. Heck, look what happened with Michael Young when he thought he’d get about 300 PAs this year. Canzler could very well be that guy, but what if he isn’t?
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 21, 2011 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Are you including Canzler in that OF, because I wouldn't. Maddon has gone on record that he doesn't really like Canzler's glove anywhere
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 21, 2011 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm with Sandy on this.
And I think Jones fits the bill. Besides, I would want a backup plan in case Guyer/Canzler don’t hack it. I want someone better than league average. Besides, didn’t Canzler hit RHP better than LHP last year?
Counting on Canzler for anything seems off to me
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Oct 21, 2011 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions
He's gotta get a decent chance if we want to see what he can do, no?
I don’t mind him getting a shot but I want a guy to step in right away if he fails. Or give the job to someone and if they get injured or fail then see what Canzler can do. He’s too good to let sit in AAA forever but not good enough to throw out there right away. Hard to gauge what to do.
Agreed on giving him a chance
I’m agreeing with you, a plan B (and maybe C) is needed
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Oct 21, 2011 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions
It would be nice to see the Rays get some real depth again.
jonahkeri jonahkeri
Josh Freeman refund please.
Where have you gone, Willy Aybar
(besides jail)
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Oct 21, 2011 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
It would be nice to have a real pinch hitter
and not Elliot Johnson. This was pretty obvious during the playoffs
jonahkeri jonahkeri
Josh Freeman refund please.
Bring Back Jonny Gomes
LHP masher and pinch-hitter all for about 1mil or less.
by raysfaninminnesota on Oct 21, 2011 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
and who else would you recommend that would be a better option vs LHP and a bat off the bench for cheap?
by raysfaninminnesota on Oct 21, 2011 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions
He would be fine in that role and really cheap
I just would like someone a little more flexible in PH role
jonahkeri jonahkeri
Josh Freeman refund please.
Andruw Jones? I'm with Filbert on this piece
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 22, 2011 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Jones still makes 3.2 Mil from the Dodges
Hopefully he would be willing to settle for less money so he can play for a contender.
If he's still out there in late January or February that means his price has dropped
into the Rays zone, and he becomes a viable candidate. Until then i’m still shopping at Big Lots for the Maggs, Blakes and DeRosa’s who are more likely to become Rays than Josh Willingham
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
why pay a guy thats a good 3b to not use his glove there? some team will value that in to his pricetag, so itd be inefficient not to.
Casey Blake was never a GG at 3B--i see him as a Zobrist circa '09, with the Rays
1B, LF, RF DH
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
If he's not healthy, I'd love him as a backup plan.
If people aren’t going to pay him to be an everyday 3B, he could be the Aybar role quite nicely, fill in for Longo and 1B when needed, and get time at DH.
Don’t want him playing COF for us though.
by Whelk on Oct 21, 2011 1:15 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
"If he's not healthy, I'd love him as a backup plan."
Whelk wants injured players!!!!
jonahkeri jonahkeri
Josh Freeman refund please.
Injured players are the new market efficiency.
I sort of agree that if he’s fine to start the year, he’ll get a real 3B job somewhere.
by Whelk on Oct 21, 2011 1:34 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Well our ownership is cheap and only wants broken/used goods.
jonahkeri jonahkeri
Josh Freeman refund please.
No tax on used goods under 9-9-9
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Oct 21, 2011 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm with Glass on this.
He can play 3B and there aren’t a lot of those guys out there. He’ll sign elsewhere.
David Dejesus anyone?
If we trade Upton of course. Platoon bat (or fulltime if he performs well) bat with Guyer in LF. He has a streak of good years followed by bad years and is up for a good year, Seems like a solid buy low candidate.
I'm ok with it depending on the price.
I think Fuld can be just as valuable in the right situations.
At a more full time gig, I would take DeJesus every day.
I like Fuld, but as a back up. I don’t want to see him playing 70% of the time.
I disagree, although it is close.
Let Guyer and Fuld be the fallback option. What if Jennings/Joyce/DeJesus gets injured?
DeJesus has averaged 2.75 WAR over last 4 years
good D, can play all OF positions, and a .290/.366/.458 3 year average vs RHP. Flexibility, defense, and decent bat…sounds like a Ray kind of player.
by raysfaninminnesota on Oct 21, 2011 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm just not sure his injury in 2010 isn't a lingering one.
He hit .254/.313/.271 the month before landing on the DL and then last year was a bad year. He’ll be 32 in December and his power is barely moderate and he doesn’t steal bases. He’s turning into a singles hitter. Hasn’t had 30 doubles in any of his last 5 seasons.
last year was not a bad year
It wasn’t great, but a 2+WAR season in what is considered a “bad” year is pretty good. And most of his issues came against LHP. Vs righties last year he hit .265/.357/.430, with good defensive ratings and good baserunning skills. BABIP was a good 40 points below his career average.
There’s enough there to target him as a good bounce-back, buy-low option.
by raysfaninminnesota on Oct 21, 2011 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm at the point where I can't tell if BABIP is saying that the player has had bad luck or if he's just making shitty contact
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 22, 2011 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm with you here.
The year-to-year differences seem to be simply random. I am all for saying a really low BABIP will bounce back but it doesn’t always happen.
And on DeJesus: We already have good defenders. I want a hitter with some pop. If he’s really cheap then sure, let’s take him. If not, then we do not need him.
I've been on this bandwagon for a while now
Excellent buy-low, bounce-back candidate. Can play all 3 OF spots, and mashes RHP. If Upton gets moved (and hopefully we get a C or 1B as part of the deal), this would be the perfect play.
by raysfaninminnesota on Oct 21, 2011 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I was on him in 2010 but something about his play last year scared me.
Not sure if he was hurt and not saying or if it was a fluke.
Current roster is pretty good just as it is
We were +93 this year. If you get another +15 for a full year of Jennings, and say, another +20 when you replace Niemann or Davis with Moore (my speculative estimates), that moves this roster to about a +128 just the way it is. That’s a pretty solid, playoff-caliber team just the way it is. I just mention this, because so far in the thread, I haven’t seen any suggestions that would significantly improve the +/- in total runs.
It seems to me that, to significantly boost the number, the team needs a first-rate hitter to bat behind Longoria. That could come from a DH, 1B, C, or maybe just a career year from one of the other position players. I guess that my question becomes……..why do anything if our options aren’t more exciting than they seem?
One thing, you can't just assume that players will replicate this year next season
I’m sure Joyce and Zobrist might see a bit of a falloff, while you can probably expect an uptick from Longo, I’ll try to get some projections put together that we can tie into WAR and ultimately team wins, but it’s a bit early in the offseason to start that
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 21, 2011 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
true, but did anyone really have a 'career year' this year?
No major breakout, no huge year…unless you talking Krotchman. I would hope Zobrist wouldn’t experience much of a fall-off, and at least the same if not more from Joyce, as he continues to develop and take the next step.
by raysfaninminnesota on Oct 21, 2011 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions
On the hitting side, I agree with you.
Some regression from Jennings is to be expected. Outside of that, I don’t think any regression, besides a little from Joyce or Zobrist, is to be “expected”.
Well regression will be expected for all players, it's nice to not be too concerned about expecting a massive negative correction
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 22, 2011 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah. his rookie year he was still catching. i drafted him the next year in fantasy as a catcher, and he played 150+ games in lf. it was awesome.
When was the last time he played catcher?
Cuz, you know, we might maybe could sorta have an opening there
Biggest factor for me is to get the best bat available to hit behind Longoria in the order
Rays will continue to be inconsistent offensively unless a quality, run producing, power hitter is found to bat behind Longoria. Someone needs to take that pressure off of Longoria, on a fulltime basis, and to set-up the middle of the line-up.
If the Rays are going to move some parts(Shields and Upton) to add pieces, it does free up 15 million next year to spend on a big bat. For that money, I would look into signing Carlos Beltran. Only 35, and appears healthy but not to DH(although he could ease into the position over the next two seasons) but to play RF. That would shift Joyce over to LF either fulltime or with platooning with Guyer(or someone else) if needed. This would be assuming that Upton was moved and Jennings takes over in center. A solid .300 hitter with 25 HR capability(4.7 WAR. .389 w/OBA both L/R), who as a switch hitter, protects Longoria and makes it difficult to match-up late in the game for opposing managers.
My only concern would be his knees on the turf but he could DH on certain days and again, transition into the DH role, if needed). He does not require a draft pick and I think he could be signed for two years at 9-10 million per. I would follow that with signing Ryan Doumit to play DH(mostly fulltime). Another switch hitter who found his swing again last year (was healthy)and because he is not a good defensive catcher, might be better suited for DH’ing. He would offer the option to catch against certain teams(40-50 games) or if the Rays carried two other catchers, be used as a third option. I’m sure his option won’t be picked up and could be signed for 1 year and 4 million.
Only 35
LOL
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Oct 21, 2011 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions
The move to RF and missing the most of '09 and '10 makes him a young 35
When you look at the age of guys like Cuddyer(33), Willingham(33), Swisher(31)..all “A” FA’s..and the likelihood they get at least three years deal at 10 million plus, makes the cost prohibitive for the Rays. Kubel is 29 and projected as a “B” but will also command three years and similar money(and plays 3rd base). Juan Rivera(33), with no compensation, may be more of a possibility at perhaps 1-2 years and 6-7 million. Plus he goes back to Maddons days with the Angels. Doumit is only 30 and would also require no draft picks if non-tendered.
Most of the other DH types are much older, Papa, Thome, Posada, Giambi, Guerrero, Matsui and even at 5-6 million for one year, would be big risks with possible declining production.
I don't want a guy who has knee trouble running around on turf inside of a dome
And the DH component is a question mark.
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Oct 21, 2011 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Duh! I want a consistnet offense, like 2010.
Oh how soon we forget. 2010 was labeled “inconsistent”. That was when you had Crawford in the lineup.
For what it's worth...moving Shields and Upton this winter creates payroll flexibility
Not having to pay Upton 7-8 million in arby and the 7 million next year and the 9 million dollar option for Shields in 2013 comes out to 23-24 million.
If Beltran were to get 12 million for 2 years it would come out to mostly a wash.
Not to mention the haul in players coming back by trading both...and not giving up a draft pick for Beltran.
Rays could fill all their needs(short term and long term) with the right moves this winter, IMO.
I don’t think there’s any way Beltran only gets 2 years at 12m per. He just had the best offensive year of his career by wRC+, stayed reasonably healthy and is by far the best corner outfielder on the market.
Many teams will be scared off by the health and athletic decline, but even still, something like 3 years at 16m per seems more likely to me.
by Monkeyking42 on Oct 22, 2011 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Beltran will get more
but he is an older player, he has been extremely injury prone and this could be a fluke season he was healthy.
I’d give him no more than an incentives laden 3 year deal though do to his age and injury concerns though.
"You need to get real!"
What about Grady Sizemore?
If the Indians decline he option, would he be to much of a gamble for the Rays?
I'm not too sure what the market is on him.
He is a real wild card at this point. Someone would give him a little too pricey of a deal or he could be eaisly available. The Ras do have a DH spot open, and I have little doubt about his hitting.
I'd love Sizemore at the right price.
He can DH and offer a break at any outfield spot but cannot play there everyday. Someone will give him a decent offer.
Only way he ends up with the Rays is via trade
Indians have to pay a .5 mil buyout to decline…perhaps Rays can get a mil chipped in, and trade them Jeff Niemann. Minus Niemann’s arb salary, and you’re looking at 5 mil or so as the total cost for Sizemore. That’s a decent option. Of course I do wonder if we’d be better off trading Niemann for someone like Carlos Quentin for the same price.
by raysfaninminnesota on Oct 21, 2011 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions
if you look there's one of these . before the 5
I’m saying if the Indians have to pay 500k anyways, maybe the Rays can get a total of a mil thrown in the deal, send them Niemann and his 2-3 arb salary, and the Rays are left with the cost difference (if they had kept Niemann) of around 5 mil.
Depends how much you like him as a bounce-back guy vs someone like Carlos Quentin being available. Sizemore would be a DH most of the time (I wouldn’t want a guy with a checkered injury history on the turf), and when a guy hasn’t really done that much, it makes me nervous. Not everyone can do it. So I guess what I’m saying is, I’d rather shoot for other options, unless Rays staff is convinced he is healthy and also able to play the field.
by raysfaninminnesota on Oct 21, 2011 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Sizemore's Injuries
Have come from running the bases not playing the field.
He will not be a DH and he will not sign with any team that asks him to be a DH.
If the Indians are stupid enough to not risk a comeback, he will make a good chunk of change in Seattle, San Francisco, Boston, New York (who could move Swisher and put Grady in RF), and a few other locations.
The absolute best move for the Indians is to pick up the option, park Grady in CF, and let the chips fall where they may.
If he has another injury plagued year, they only risked 9 mil
If he has a rebound year and the team is competitive, they reap the rewards.
If he has a rebound year and the team is not competitive, the Indians have a good trade chip.
Not picking up the option would make me shake my head.
Rays would have to give Grady a guaranteed 4-5 mil with another achievable incentive package for around 4-5 mil.
Park adjustment
By True Average, Willingham actually had his best offensive year. By wRC+, his third-best, right in between his Marlins and Nats numbers. Depends on which park adjustment you believe, basically, but I don’t think his bat is nearly as much on the downslope as his raw wOBA shows.
Matsui, FWIW, seems to be a near-lock to go back to Oakland. Much to my chagrin as an A’s fan.
Willingham fits with pretty much everybody I think
"I will play tomorrow unless I am dead when I wake up" - Victor Martinez

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