The Rays Tank: One More Day Of Baseball

by Steve Slowinski on Oct 28, 2011 8:08 AM EDT in The Rays Tank

ST LOUIS, MO - OCTOBER 27: The St. Louis Cardinals bench awaits at home plate after David Freese #23 hits a walk off solo home run in the 11th inning to win Game Six of the MLB World Series against the Texas Rangers at Busch Stadium on October 27, 2011 in St Louis, Missouri. The Cardinals won 10-9. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

MLB Chatter

Holy cow, this is what great baseball looks like. The Cardinals were one out away from being eliminated twice last night, but they came back both times and won the game on a walk-off homer in the bottom of the 11th. Absolutely wild. We've got one more game of baseball this season, and we can only hope that it's as good as last night's game was.

The biggest article out yesterday was Mike Fast's breakdown of heat maps. He argues that heat maps don't actually tell us all that much and aren't very predictive for the future, as the data isn't as granular as they make it appear. It makes sense; there's a lot smoothing involved in making a pretty looking heat map, and it's not surprisingly that the smoothing doesn't necessarily reflect reality.

So consider this a word of caution to all those looking at heat maps. They're fun to look at and visually pleasing, but depending on the data and smoothing, some may be less accurate than a simple 2x2 square of hot/cold zones.

Also, hidden in that piece is a small nugget on Sean Rodriguez. Apparently he has lots of trouble against pitches away, both high and low.

Tony LaRussa made some odd comments after Game 5 about how on-base percentage is a "dangerous" stat, and Dave Cameron broke down why that was a load of bollocks. I'll never understand how LaRussa has garnered this reputation as a terrific manager. Maybe I'm too young, but his moves always frustrate me whenever I pay attention to the Cards.

Rays Talk

Apparently James Shields thinks the Rays are definitely going to pick up his team option (duh) and that he'll still be on the Rays come the beginning of next year. I certainly hope this is true, and I have no problems with players being optimistic and ignoring trade rumors and such. But if the Rays get an offer for a young impact bat for Shields, they're going to be faced with a real tough decision.

The upshot of yesterday's St. Pete council meeting: Foster is going to meet with Stu soon. So that's good (hopefully). At the very least, it's a step in the right direction.

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The more i watch this World Series featuring MLB's "best" teams

the hotter under the collar i get. If only the Rays could have mustered a run or two in those one run losses to TEX, they easily defeat a Cardinals team which features the NL version of Reid Brignac (Furcal & Punto) each with an OFer who’d make Johnny Gomes look like a GG (Cruz and Holliday) and bullpens resembling the old Devil Rays.

And how about the greatness that is Ron Washington? How do you not save Derek Holland for a possible G7?

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Oct 28, 2011 8:16 AM EDT reply actions

Why, in an elimination game, would you save a pitcher (or any player) for a game that isn't guaranteed to happen?

by Passionate Apathy on Oct 28, 2011 8:29 AM EDT up reply actions

I get what you are saying but I have this nagging feeling that sometimes it is logical to hold back:

Try this hypo: It’s the last game of the season, and if the Rays win, they trigger a one game playoff against the Yankees for the wildcard.

Say the score is tied late, and the best pitcher available for the Rays is Price. Would you throw Price in relief even if that meant Sonnanstine would have to start the playoff game against the Yanks?

by BudGHG on Oct 28, 2011 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions

Yes, I would throw Price if he presented the best opportunity to win the game. Worry about tomorrow after winning today.

Wasn’t Shields warming in the pen in game 162? Also, just because Price pitches today, doesn’t dictate that Sonny is on the hill tomorrow. You have at least 2 other starters or capable relievers that would be available to go the next day, even if on short rest. Just like Washington has Wilson, Harrison, Holland (who I believe he already said could pitch again today-though not to start). I hope that makes sense.

Sonny would not be on the playoff roster.

by Passionate Apathy on Oct 28, 2011 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions

I see, I see

Talking this over this afternoon, game 3 of the 1962 NL playoff came up. Drysdale was available and asking to pitch in relief but the Dodgers manager chose to stick with the bullpen since he wanted Drysdale for World Series game 1. The bullpen ended up walking the bases loaded and losing the game.

It feels to me like holding back is being risk-adverse, but I can see now its actually the bigger gamble: hoping an inferior player can do the job in a close spot.

by BudGHG on Oct 28, 2011 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions

I had no idea just how bad of a manager Washington was.

He’s just so awful. I knew TLR was insane but Washington’s team has to win in spite of him. Makes me so much happier to have Maddon.

by sattp on Oct 28, 2011 9:03 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Shields, Price, Helly, Moore and whoever they don't trade as a #5 looks great to me. Bring back BJ, add a bullpen arm or two and a couple bats and let's go win the ALE

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Oct 28, 2011 8:23 AM EDT reply actions

this

by rglass44 on Oct 28, 2011 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions

me too

by jso on Oct 28, 2011 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions

Yes.

@RealNolenBailey

by Hatfield on Oct 28, 2011 9:20 AM EDT up reply actions

I'd love to see this.

But knowing the Rays, Shields’ value will NEVER be higher and Upton’s September certainly helped his. It’s either sell high and get some young bats or go for it! I really hope we gor for it.

I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta

by sc_monsta1015 on Oct 28, 2011 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions

And be one and done again in the play-offs like the last two seasons?

All the talk about good pitching stopping good hitting hasn’t gotten the Rays out of the ALDS lately. Rays haven’t gotten exceptionally good pitching and certainly their offensive limitations have been exposed the last two years in the play-offs. Rays have an opportunity to make big offensive improvement this winter by moving pieces(for both next season and the future).

Maybe fans are content with knocking off the Yanks and Red Sox each year(with a lot of help by those teams..choking and injuries) but I would like to see the Rays be able to score a lot more runs(while maintaining a strong rotation which I think is possible even by moving Shields) and being able to hang with all the top teams on the way to a ring…and not just a play-off appearance.

by budman3 on Oct 29, 2011 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Absolutely

I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta

by sc_monsta1015 on Oct 29, 2011 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions

As long the Rays as the currently constructed get in the playoffs I like their chances. All they need is the opportunity.

If the Rays can continue to knock off the Yankees and Red Sox each year they will get theirs in the end. Getting in over them is the hardest part and the Rays have shown they can be competitive with them these past few years and their future looks just as bright. To not give the team credit for taking the opportunity when Boston let the window open (with some help from the Rays too) is really underselling what they acheived this season. In 2008 and 2010 the Rays showed they were the better team and didn’t need anybody elses help in order to get in.

I’m not saying the Rays shouldn’t try to get better over the offseason looking toward next year and the future, but they shouldn’t be so quick to make changes just for the sake of change. The FO will never be able to afford an elite such as the Red Sox, Yankees, or Rangers, however they put a team together that was able to be in the middle tier of AL offenses. An extra 0.5 run/game woudn’t be likely to help out as much if they have to suffer anything defensively or pitching.

When it come to playoff specifically this year the biggest upgrades can be found on quality bench bats that were severely lacking this postseason. I would love one more chance at the playoff with a Price, Shields, Moore, Hellickson rotation for the postseason. I don’t believe our inhouse shortstop and catcher situations would fair this badly again if given the opportunity, especially if Beckham continues to make strides at AAA and is ready to contribute in the 2nd half if Brignac/SRod continue to struggle. If we can solidify one of those spots through positive regression having one hole would be managable.

So standing pat for the most part with a few moves could put this team in a very favorable situation for next season and the future. A big offensive improvement is unlikely given the team wanting to keep an elite run prevention defense and pitching staff outside of having better bench bats, granted almost anything could be better than seeing Sam Fuld as your only bench bat.

by jtmorgan on Oct 29, 2011 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Their offensive lack of production in the off season has little to do with the bench bats.

Dating back to the WS of 2008, the Rays have a cumulative record of 4-10. In the those last 14 games the Rays scored less than 3 runs in 8 of those ten losses(one game they lost 5-4). Take out the 9 runs they scored in the first game this season against the Rangers and their offense scored 40 runs in 13 games(average barely over 3 runs a game.).

I think most knowledgeable fans understand the inconsistency in scoring runs through long droughts that this team suffers through is their major problem. The 0.5 runs a game they could use would make a huge difference in their regular season record and would be amplified in the post season. I think their pitching is both deep and talented and could absorb losing a Shields and a Davis/Neimann. The defense will always remain a strength as the FO understands its’ importance. The “expected” offensive upgrade they could obtain by moving some pitching would have a big impact, not only in the a better W-L record during the season but in the play-offs when outscoring the other team seems to be advantageous..in terms of offense versus good pitching, IMO.

by budman3 on Oct 29, 2011 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Right now we have an abundance of starting pitching depth.

Every team goes through stretches where they struggle to hit. In a lot of games all it takes is 1 timely hit to completely change the outlook of a game/series especially when you get in the postseason. A sss where you take out the best game will always appear to make the average look worse than it actually is. In Rays history they are 11-14 in the playoff with a 4.48 r/gm average. While it is frustrating when it seems that 3 runs is the cap that you are going to likely score at any time all it will take is one timely hit for everything to change. As long as the pitching keeps the team within striking distance the offense is good enough to win it’s fair share. A quality bench would help hide flaws in the hitters making up the bottom part of the lineup that are hurt by matchups.

The major league depth is great however they can’t trade away all of it at once and they have to make sure they get the best talent they can that will help in the present in the future. Right now it is nice to have 8 major league ready starting pitchers: Price, Shields, Hellickson, Niemann, Davis, Cobb, Moore, and Torrez. One should definitely get traded this winter in order to try to find some offense. But with Moore likely starting the season in AAA for at minimum one month due to service time they need to make sure they keep 6 available for next season and having a backup available (If a long term contract is reached with Moore this could change things and allow him to start out of ST since service time would matter less). With our high minors not having replacements ready in the next year or two they need to make sure to keep some of the depth because I forsee Price having to get traded in at minimum 2 years because he will just be too expensive.

There is undoubtedly room for improvement offensively just I don’t expect every prospect traded for to be able to make that huge of a difference. I see a trade of pitching for whoever they feel will be our 1B of the future but I don’t expect them to give us more than what we received from Kotchman this year, at least substantially. SS will be dealt with in house and hope for a better season collectively from Brignac/SRod with Beckham and HJL being close to ready. At catcher I see them kicking the tires on some potential trade targets, but could see them going in house and hoping somebody steps up between Chirinos, Jaso, Lobaton, Ashley, or Vogt. Saying that there seems to be a move that gets made that nobody saw coming that could potentially make everything change.

Sorry if the post and many others have been too long for some and thanks for those who have taken the time to read them.

by jtmorgan on Oct 29, 2011 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Last night ended up wayyyyy past my bed time.

But that was an absolute blast to watch.

@RealNolenBailey

by Hatfield on Oct 28, 2011 9:12 AM EDT reply actions

I had planned on coming in here bashing both managers and the incredibly sloppy play... then awesome happened.

@RealNolenBailey

by Hatfield on Oct 28, 2011 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions

Yes.

Great game, great series, great season. I got home after 1 am and was still exhilarated, so I stayed up another hour and a half before trying to get some sleep.

by bobr on Oct 28, 2011 9:17 AM EDT up reply actions

A question.

I have asked this on other sites with no response so far.

Of all the questionable decisions Washington made-not pinch hitting for Lewis with the bases loaded, staying with the bunt that the Cardinals were clearly prepared to turn into a DP and others, it seems to me one might make a case that the manager had a defensible reason. Not necessarily a good one, not necessarily one supportable by statistics, but given the specific players, the score and the inning, not necessarily one that dooms his team.

But can anyone defend in any fashion the decision to take Feldman out of the game? Wouldn’t the primary object in an extra inning game to keep the home team from scoring? Is there any way Lowe provides a better chance to do that? I know he was hoping to score a go-ahead run there, but with a runner on 1B and 2 outs, is that the time to exchange you best available reliever with one of your worst so that German can drive in the runner from 1B or extend the inning?

This is not hindsight. At the time, during the confusion in the on-deck circle, my son and I agreed there was no way Washington could take out Feldman for Lowe, and then he did.

by bobr on Oct 28, 2011 9:14 AM EDT reply actions

agreed. awful decision. laughably bad.

by rglass44 on Oct 28, 2011 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, he really Ron Washington'd that one.

@RealNolenBailey

by Hatfield on Oct 28, 2011 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions

He snorted the decision?

by Passionate Apathy on Oct 28, 2011 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I thought the same thing.

It makes no sense to pinch hit for your last dependable arm, especially when he’s a guy used to going multiple innings.

by Whelk on Oct 28, 2011 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions

There was confusion for sure.

But the move had something to do with Nelson Cruz being injured.

I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta

by sc_monsta1015 on Oct 28, 2011 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions

Yes, but that doesn't alter the point.

He could bring in German to replace Cruz in the OF without having him pinch hit for Feldman. The key, in my view, was keeping your best available reliever (who, by the way, can go multiple innings) in the game as long as possible. In a matchup of Westbrook and Feldman, who is more likely to break first?

by bobr on Oct 28, 2011 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Wash is lucky his roster is so talented because he's managed this series like a Sam Wyche-led Bucs team

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Oct 28, 2011 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Ron Washington

I’ve been sure that Wash was MLB’s worst game manager (although TLR is giving him a run for his money this week). Why didn’t he replace Holland with Adams after Berkman? Why didn’t he put Feliz back out there, with St. Louis bringing up their slow bats and Oliver bringing his 79mph stuff? Why didn’t he leave Feldman in instead of bringing in Lowe? Why not send Endy Chavez to RF for defensive purposes with a 2-run lead in the 9th? Why? Why? Why?

Nobody knows. Nobody here in Texas can explain it. Washington clearly has the support of his players, but everyone around here groans when he starts playing his hunches.

by cocanat on Oct 28, 2011 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions

btw, i'm wondering if the Rangers would subscribe to the 'anyone can play 1B' theory frequently tossed around here

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Oct 28, 2011 9:30 AM EDT reply actions

Bad fielders at 3rd, SS, and 2nd are now bad at 1st?

I’m shocked!

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Oct 28, 2011 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Michael Young

He has to play somewhere, don’t you think? Of course, Washington might have thought about giving him more than a dozen or so games at the position during the regular season, just in case, you know, that they made it to the World Series? Again?

by cocanat on Oct 28, 2011 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions