Who's on First in 2012?
by jcmitchell on Oct 28, 2011 10:00 AM EDT
in Features & Analysis
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The Rays were pleasantly surprised by the production they received at first base after Dan Johnson grounded and popped his way out to a near full win below replacement to the start the year. Casey Kotchman, a local to the Tampa Bay area, provided nearly three wins above replacement after replacing the incumbent Dan Johnson.
Most of us know the story by now of how Kotchman underwent an offseason procedure to remove puss from his tear ducts and clear up his vision. He said, before the procedure, that "it was kind of like looking through a dirty windshield wiper." Kotchman went on to have his best offensive season according to wRC+ by posting a 125, meaning he hit 25% better than the league average.
Kotchman is now a free agent and will more than likely cost multiple years and at least $4M per season. Not a bad deal if you believe the production is for real, especially since he had four straight seasons of falling UZR totals ending with a negative total in 2010. He bounced back to produce a positive 1.6 last year but he may not be the elite defensive first baseman we all thought he was.
The free agent market for first basemen is top heavy with Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder leading the way. The Rays have zero shot at signing them and will look through the bargain bin like they did last year.
Carlos Pena is a name that I would love to see back in a Rays uniform but the term bargain is not attached to him since the Rays struck gold with him in 2007.
Derrek Lee is intriguing but only if he never has to play against tough righties and is on a one year deal for $1.5M or less. I, for some reason, think he will get more elsewhere.
No thanks Jorge Cantu, Brad Hawpe, Ross Gload, Xavier Nady, Eric Hinske, and Lyle Overbay. Your services are not welcome here. Nick Johnson is always an intriguing name but relying on him to get healthy and stay healthy is akin to relying on my 401k to bounce back from it's injuries. Not happening.
Of the available free agents out there that can be had on a minor league deal or for near league minimum that are out there, I would probably only offer Russell Branyan a deal. Yes, I do have a ridiculous man crush on this player but it's not a bad idea on a low risk contract.
Branyan had his fewest plate appearances in 2011 since the 1999 season and most of his PAs can be attributed to pinch hitting and the occasional spot start. He never got a fair opportunity to play and his numbers were simply bad.
But, there is value here as long as he is healthy. His defense at first is actually really good. He has a +5.8 UZR in 1609.2 innings over the past three seasons at first. He has also maintained his good patience at the plate with his 10th straight year of posting at least a 10% walk rate. It was 12.3% last year.
Sure, he only hit 5 homeruns last year but he hit 68 over his previous 939 at-bats. I believe the power is still there and he may be a bargain this offseason. But, he has never been able to hit lefties and strikes out a lot. I wouldn't mind the Rays signing him but it cannot be him alone.
The best option is to find a trade partner and there seem to be options out there.
Yonder Alonso is blocked by the great Joey Votto and the Reds desperately need pitching, something the Rays have a surplus of.
Brandon Belt is a name that I would love to see in a Rays uniform but pitching is not necessarily the weakness of the San Francisco Giants. Is B.J. Upton and Alex Cobb or Jeff Niemann enough to get Belt? Too much to give up for Belt? Is there even a potential deal to make with the Giants?
The Rays could call the Oakland Athletics who have Brandon Allen and Daric Barton but is there any real interest there? Same with the Diamondbacks. Does Juan Miranda make any sense? I think Branyan is a better option.
The best best, for the Rays, is to pray that another Casey Kotchman and Carlos Pena bargain fall in our lap or to start trading some of our pitching for a young first baseman who is currently blocked. I would love to see Brandon Belt and Russell Branyan in the Rays organization next year but Yonder Alonso may be our best option and I can live with that.
Who do you want to realistically see on first for the Rays in 2012?
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Almost included him until I saw his remaining contract.
I just don’t see the Rays giving up pitching for a DH $8M per year plus a buyout at the end of the contract.
Pena got 6, 8, and 10.125MM
so 8, 8, 8 with a club option for 12.5 doesn’t seem impossible. Also, I’ve always thought this would be a BJ-for-Butler swap, which is essentially expense-neutral.
by AndrewTorrez on Oct 28, 2011 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Pena was a top defender with more power and patience, though.
That trade would work for me but I simply don’t see KC doing that. Talks of re-signing Melky (blah) and Cain is ready. They need pitching.
not sure how this applies
-If the question is “is Billy Butler worth $8MM per year?”, I think the answer is pretty clearly yes.
-If the question is “would the Rays acquire a player with an $8MM annual salary,” the answer is also yes.
Your argument seems to be that Pena at $10MM was a better value than Butler at $8MM; even if that were true, I don’t see how it’s relevant.
(Also, Butler has about 70 points of OBP-above-AVG; that’s not quite as good as Pena, obviously, but isn’t that offset by the fact that Butler is a career .297 hitter??)
by AndrewTorrez on Oct 28, 2011 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Was arguing that Pena, at an average annual salary of $8M is more valuable.
And, that was when the Rays had their highest payroll. They seem to be getting away from that.
Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to see Butler in a Rays uni, but I don’t see it fitting in the current organizational format. I could be wrong, though. Usually am. =)
over the life of the deal (2007-2010)?
sure, no contest.
That being said, I’m still a believer in a Billy Butler power surge. If we’re cherrypicking stats, I could point out that he slugged .511 in the second half of 2011.
by AndrewTorrez on Oct 28, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Scouts often say
that if you look at a guy who is young who can hit with a little power but with a lot of doubles that when he ages into his mid to late 20’s a power surge may come.
Butler does in fact fit that type of hitter.
The swing-plane does make me think the power will not come.
But I still hold hope for a tick up in power with Butler due to the reason Mr. Neg said. I simply do not see 25+ homerun power there, though.
I really think you have to look into where they play a bit deeper when they had 3 outfielders sock 40 doubles or whatever it was
KC has a HR park factor of 71 for lefties and 85 for righties, but doubles go to 117/102 according to statcorner. To see all those doubles out of Melky, Gordon, Butler, etc… without gaudy HR totals should be a flag. Just a brief glance and he has been a much better hitter at home with a .374 wOBA there and .333 on the road. I’m not sure if 1400 PA at both is enough to be certain that he’s really excelled in that park, but it at least leans that way.
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 28, 2011 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
good point Rglass
it’s certainly an interesting debate. But, as time goes on I like to look at young players <25 years old and examine their doubles and on-base %. If those two numbers are good power may come. Something I thought might happen to Asdrubal Cabrera and last year it did.
Stu has made it clear that the Rays will not spend like that again, though.
Our payroll was at it’s highest when we signed him.
last bit
again, I don’t know if we can predict a payroll in excess of $50MM given the structural problems with the Rays and revenue right now. What I do know is that the Rays will almost surely shed a fair amount of salary this offseason — B.J. and Damon (that’s $10MM), Shoppach ($2.25MM), and four million-dollar players who might return at the MLB minimum (Dan Johnson, J.P. Howell, Juan Cruz and Andy Sonnanstine) — that’s another net of about $2MM.
That’s nearly $15MM to play with before you start talking trades of guys like Jamie Shields ($4.25MM last year; $7MM in 2012) or Wade Davis ($1.5MM).
Some of that will be spent dumpster-diving — possibly even multi-million-dollar dumpster-diving on guys like Wuertz and Mike Gonzalez. Some of it might be spent on bringing back Shoppach or Damon at lower salaries. But even with no increase in the 2012 payroll, I think there’s room for an $8MM DH.
I get your point; I hope I’m right and you’re wrong. I think you hope the same. :)
by AndrewTorrez on Oct 28, 2011 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
A lot of the money is already spent in arbitration and raises of players under contract.
The only real way to make room if we run a payroll in the 45-50MM ballpark is through trading away the more expensive pieces such as Shields or BJ.
Yes, I had that included in the raises of players under contract portion.
And I dont think the team gets better offensively by trading away BJ just to sign a $8MM DH (obviously could change depending upon who became available in that price range).
and who they got back for Upton.
If a package around Upton lands Belt or Morrison then Butler looks even better in our lineup.
by jcmitchell on Oct 28, 2011 11:48 AM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions
If he could land a MLB ready bat of that callibre than I could see a $8MM DH would improve our lineup next year.
I think Butler would cause us to not have enough payroll flexibility in the 2013-2014 seasons with our really cheap home grown players getting more and more expensive.
Rather have BJ, Andruw, and Russel, however
these 3 do not solve the first-base problem, but either does Billy Butler. In the long run, considering the prices of good 1B, it would be best to trade for a cheap, controllable, 1B with upside (Barton, Kila, Allen, or Alonso).
one of those things is not like the other
Barton, Kila and Allen are great if you’re dumpster-diving, but I’m not sure they count as cheap, cost-controlled MLB 1B.
by AndrewTorrez on Oct 28, 2011 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
If one of these 1B would actually produce,
I considered the Rays would of done what they did with Pena and extend him. Since acquiring these players where all hypothetical, the extensions would be too. I just don’t see the Giants trading Belt, and Lomo would be nice if he could be had at the right price.
Sorry, I assumed Oakland wouldn't part with him
and that he would actually cost more than the others to acquire.
bad contract?
125, 134, 125 OPS+ each of the last three years, which would make him the best Rays DH since 2005. And he’s 26, and he slugged .561 in the minors while being among the youngest player at each level.
In other words: with no improvement, he would be the best Rays DH in a decade at a salary that’s comparable to what the Rays have paid their DHs in recent years. And who knows, he might have a power breakout.
I’ll take that.
by AndrewTorrez on Oct 28, 2011 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Without a commitment of significant payroll increases over the next couple of years l dont see how his contact can fit.
With the core of the Rays hitting higher arbitration totals especially in the pitching staff. I don’t think they could commit to a idealy DH only who would be making 8MM/yr over the next 3 seasons guaranteed. Any drop off at all would severely limit any flexibility of adding anybody in the future.
A DH batting 20% better than league is not a good value at $8 mill. regardless of past performance at the position.
Throw in the acquisition cost, and I seriously do not want him.
Especially looking forward, because of the guaranteed years @ $8MM/yr.
It would be much more benefitial to sign a FA DH even in the $8-10MM/yr range since it would give us more flexibility going forward and not locked into an expensive DH. For the extra money you could keep your minor league talent.
Good luck man, you're talking to the wrong wall, glass doesn't like Butler's skillset so he's a bad player end of story
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 28, 2011 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
It would be hard to convince to give up anything of value.
In order to pay a DH approx market value for 3 years.
I'm on board with Daric Bartin to a small deal.
Little power, but great patience. I think he has a better chance of being the Casey Kotchman of next year than Casey Kotchman does.
hard to imagine being able to trade for Barton
although the flip side is that the A’s also acquired Kila Ka’aihue.
by AndrewTorrez on Oct 28, 2011 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
grrr, I don't know why it keeps double-posting. sorry.
by AndrewTorrez on Oct 28, 2011 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
This why I'm not sure Oakland will be so against selling low.
Someone in their stable of potentially AAAA 1B won’t get the playing time to raise his value. I’d prefer it to be Barton, but would take a flier on Kila, too.
what's weird
is that the Rays didn’t take a flyer on Kila back when the Royals made him available. IIRC, the A’s sent them some 42-year-old A-ball reliever (or equivalent). Wouldn’t have been hard to beat that offer.
by AndrewTorrez on Oct 28, 2011 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Ethan Hollingsworth.
He’s only 24, and in AAA, but he doesn’t strike anyone out, so yeah, the equivalent. I’m in agreement that it was weird.
Maybe they were scared off by the similarities to Dan Johnson.
unless the Rays get multiple offensive pieces this offseason
(Butler and Morrison, perhaps?) — then I think Canzler is a pretty obvious fit on the MLB roster as the Gabe Kapler lefty-mashing PH
by AndrewTorrez on Oct 28, 2011 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
When Casey Kotchman was sitting at 340/410 many of us, myself included
didn’t feel a repeat of that was possible. He wound up the season somewhere around 305/380. I feel those are repeatable numbers after watching him play a full season.
I see no reason to hurry in bringing Kotch back to the fold. Let him sift through offers from other teams and come January or February if the Rays haven’t moved toward a first baseman, i’m sure Kotch will fall into their price range. And another year of his offense and defense at 1B will not be a dtriment
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
Another year of Kotchman would be nice, even if he regresses more.
I agree, the Rays have to let him field offers and if he falls back into our price range then I have no problem bringing him back.
as you point out
Kotchman is arguably the third- or fourth-best 1B on the market right now. I would be stunned if he comes back at a bargain-basement price.
by AndrewTorrez on Oct 28, 2011 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Enough teams are in need.
by jcmitchell on Oct 28, 2011 11:51 AM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions
As i stated in tweets and in the Rays tank earlier
‘you think Rangers and their fans subscribe to the anyone can play 1B theory’?
We should appreciate the defensive prowess we’ve had here at 1B the last 5 seasons and realize it’s not a given
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
There are just so many options.
A Shields trade to the Reds would take care of the 1B problem. B.J. Upton and Jeff Niemann could get it done, but would we sell-low on Niemann? If we don’t trade Shields and trade Upton, that could give up a little room for somebody like Pena. If we keep both Shields and Upton, we would have to find the next Casey Kotchman. But in my opinion, a Shields to the Reds trade makes the most sense (if they are willing) because Alonso would play 1B, and we also fill in other positional needs (catcher). Not to mention moving Shields would help that whole money problem the Rays are having, whatever that is.
I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta
Shields to the Reds does seem most likely.
Could get the best return there.
by jcmitchell on Oct 28, 2011 11:56 AM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions
any deep system works
I think you don’t get hung up on positions (e.g., Mesoraco, whom I think is probably untouchable) if you can get an MLB-ready bat and multiple top-tier prospects.
Obviously, it’d be nice to have a catcher — but on balance, the 2012 lineup can stomach holes at C and SS if there are significant upgrades at 1B/LF/DH.
by AndrewTorrez on Oct 28, 2011 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
This
Could the catcher hole be filled fairly cheap with Ramon Hernandez?
I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta
by sc_monsta1015 on Oct 28, 2011 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I see.
I didn’t realize he was a Type A
I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta
by sc_monsta1015 on Oct 29, 2011 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Rangers
Rangers are likely to come out of this offseason with an upgrade at 1B. What would the Rays have to give up for Mitch Moreland? Would Niemann or Davis be enough? And, I know what his stats were this year, but he’s still working for cheap and has some upside power, I think.
Moreland
He’s 26, and was always old for his level in the minors. I think he is what he is.
by AndrewTorrez on Oct 28, 2011 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
I'd do Niemann for Moreland if the market doesn't give is better for Niemann.
With that said, I think Niemann can be part of a package for better.
by jcmitchell on Oct 28, 2011 11:54 AM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions
No he wasn't...
he played short season coming out of the draft and started the next year at A ball. He played every year in line with what you would expect from a 17th round college junior.
by Ryan Gilliss on Oct 28, 2011 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I overstated it
but I think there’s still not potential greatness there.
In 2008, Moreland was 22 (he turned 23 in September of that year); the average age in the Midwest league was 21.6.
In 2009, Moreland was 23 turning 24; the average age in the California league was 22.8. He was promoted to AA in June and was a touch young for the Texas League.
In 2010, Moreland hit .289/.371/.484 in the hitter-friendly PCL.
So you’re right to tweak the specifics, but I think my general point still stands.
by AndrewTorrez on Oct 28, 2011 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
!
I don’t see the Angels doing that for anything less than Jamie Shields (or equivalent value). No thanks.
by AndrewTorrez on Oct 28, 2011 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Kendry isn't worth Shields
The Angels will be shopping him this offseason but it wouldn’t take a blockbuster to get him.
Shields should go nowhere in no way shape or form.
The Rays, with all their problems scoring runs last year won 90+ games. The key to 2012 will surely be to repeat the pitching (with Matt Moore in the rotation shouldn’t be too difficult), repeat the defensive efficiency, not lose Longo for a month, have DJ in LF from day one with BJ in CF and Joyce in RF (nearly every day), and add some punch at DH/C/SS/1b.
Adding punch to the offense doesn’t need to come from a big trade as everyone wants to do. Toe the line, make a serious run in 2012 with BJ in CF, add a Ramon Hernandez, add a Jim Thome, add a Marco Scutaro if available, and if things don’t work out Shields/BJ and others will still be prime trade chips in July.
by MrNegative1 on Oct 28, 2011 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with your point.
On the specifics, Ramon Hernandez was mentioned as a Type A, so he’s likely out.
by Ben Tumbling on Oct 28, 2011 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I brought that up in Collete's post
the other day. I eliminated him myself but now think that with all the 2012 picks and the rays frugality, maybe they don’t want the $ on a first round pick in 2012?
by MrNegative1 on Oct 28, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think they can afford to skip out on a first round talent, however shallow the pool maybe
Come to think of it, there are scenarios where Ramon is possible:
- Reds don’t offer arbitration since they’d like to avoid a situation where they pay 5M to a 3rd catcher.
- Reds offer arbitration, Ramon accepts and then gets traded (like the Soriano deal)
by Ben Tumbling on Oct 28, 2011 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
not convinced R. Hernandez isn't ready to implode upon returning to the ALE
by AndrewTorrez on Oct 28, 2011 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Hernandez is also the best free agent catcher on the market.
Doubt we are in on him even if he is declinde arb.
He's also a Type A
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Oct 28, 2011 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Standing pat
There’s obviously a lot of wisdom here. Everyone always wants “change,” but the old saying “be careful what you ask for” rings so true. This is a pretty good team just the way it is.
Kendry Morales hasn't played in nearly two full seasons...
are you thinking of Howie Kendrick?
by Ryan Gilliss on Oct 28, 2011 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
no, I'm thinking that teams don't sell low on MVP candidates
unless they’re the Angels…oh..wait….
by AndrewTorrez on Oct 28, 2011 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions
what are you talking about?
You think that a guy who had such a catastrophic leg injury that he hasn’t been able to play in two years is a MVP candidate?
I wish Slow wasn’t banned, so he could see what type of garbage we have to look forward to.
by Ryan Gilliss on Oct 28, 2011 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
settle down now
I think what I’m saying is perfectly straightforward: when a guy’s sole track record is MVP-caliber hitter, AND he’s returning from injury, I don’t think it’s particularly likely that his team is going to trade him for anything less than the upper range of his possible value.
If you have a counter-example, go ahead and post it. But I can’t think of a single time in recent history where teams have sold low on a bat with established, MVP-level upside.
And dude, relax.
by AndrewTorrez on Oct 28, 2011 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Seriously...
he has had one full season of MLB. He’s got a career WAR of 4.2. He’s not an MVP caliber player. That’s just ridiculous. You’ve made two totally ridiculous comments so far in this thread.
by Ryan Gilliss on Oct 28, 2011 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
After you are done laughing, you ask them how they feel about Wade Davis...
for a player that hasn’t played in two years.
by Ryan Gilliss on Oct 28, 2011 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you're wrong to criticize Andrew. He has a lot of great thoughts and he spells them out in plain, easy to read English
Morales shouldn’t take a ton to acquire if the Angels feel that they’ve got other guys that can play first with fewer health questions. They may feel that they’re selling low, but the guy’s floor is that he never plays again.
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 28, 2011 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions
That easy to read English includes an assertion that Morales is an MVP caliber player
by Ryan Gilliss on Oct 28, 2011 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
lol
agree that was an exaggeration, but if youre pointing to him as the downfall of drn then you dont have ground to stand on, imo.
also, he didnt finish 5th in the mvp race in 2009, so maybe he meant “past mvp candidates” (which was how i read it).
You would read "MVP-level upside"...
as not a forward looking statement? Also, that was a year when Mauer ran away with the MVP award so I’m not really concerned with who finished 5th.
by Ryan Gilliss on Oct 28, 2011 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
i mean he has that upside. he was in the race before, and he isnt old.
i wouldnt claim it, but to pick a nit about it is something id be remiss to do. especially when i consider the user to be a strong one generally (see above where im attempting to take him to task over butler). do you disagree with his general sentiment that the halos would be selling low?
Cutting losses and getting something/anything in return?
I also took issue to the claim that Moreland was a full year ahead of the players in each league of the minors. While he was approximately a 5 months older than the league average, it’s not like he was putting up fringy numbers at the plate at those levels. He was putting up MVP type numbers at every level.
by Ryan Gilliss on Oct 28, 2011 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
*mvp-level
im not a huge fan of moreland, but id take him on a buy-low. its funny. i actually want him more this offseason than last.
That's because you wanted Chris Davis more than him last year
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 28, 2011 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
given cost, yes.
i thought moreland was buying high then. i prefer to buy low (buying now). is he a different player now than last year? well you lost one year of control, but he’s still the same guy. we just have more information than one good half season.
My best friend played at MSU...
so I’ll always root for them. One of the few SEC schools I’ve been around where baseball was one of the higher profile sports. (football and basketball sucked then)
by Ryan Gilliss on Oct 28, 2011 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Please try to stay on topic, this isn't livejournal.com
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 28, 2011 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions
This is still barely on topic
by Ryan Gilliss on Oct 28, 2011 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
It was a nice era...
Maholm and Paps and Medders and Tatum and a few other guys who had a cup of coffee and then a bunch of guys who made AA and AAA.
by Ryan Gilliss on Oct 28, 2011 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
It's a small quibble, in that one season that he played the guy was phenomenal. So was Nick Johnson for a year or two
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 28, 2011 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
will Nick Johnson
resurface in someones camp. Had a horrible year, but a rehab year nonetheless, for the Columbus Clippers. He did have one flare up with the wrist as he slid into third base and got it jammed.
I’d STILL take a flier on him as he is willing to take a minor league deal with an opt out. Got to give the guy credit for spending an entire year in the minors working his way back. That tells me a lot about the guys desire to come back.
I'd be fine with this, but it means no DanJo who probably won't be here anyway
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 28, 2011 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Yep, that's why I think he may be dealt
the risk would be on the team that picks him up and the Angels could ask for whatever they want (trade a need for a need).
When I say he has to prove he is healthy somehow, I mean in a winter league somewhere or have a presence out in a workout camp like the one in AZ.
by MrNegative1 on Oct 28, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
looks like dbacks Jerry dipoto is gonna be new angels gm per mlbtr
Glad Friedman talks are over
by TBchillin' on Oct 28, 2011 12:27 PM EDT via iPhone app reply actions
What I hope for is a full season of Shields, Price, Moore, Helly and Cobb/Wade in the rotation.
Farnsworth maybe the guy we should trade to plug some of the holes.
The Rays are a 90-95 win team in the ALE
If the league puts another wild card in, the Rays have a 30% chance of making the playoffs. If $tu will not pay Shields and B.J and Kotch, then he needs to sell the team.$tu should be in this to win some playoff money,not jerk everybody around with his I’m not making any money crap. The only move that I am comfortable with is Damon. Damon has no defense or pitching value and that is what keeps this team competitive. To say that Kotch is not an elite defensive player is rediculous. Just watch the bumbling idiots that are at 1b in the world series. Is that what we want? Mr. Stenfan is 100% correct as usual.
If you are going to flame posters
on here MR. Glass ,then spare us your B.S. about your contradictory statements like the one you fed Sandy the other day. Keep your comments to yourself and keep them baseball related.
by Landlord on Oct 28, 2011 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
it was on a humorous note, Landlord.
The “F—- you” stuff, imo, has no business ever being said without a ban, but a simply mild jest is relatively harmless.
Mr Whelk
I am talking defensive side of the game. Mr. pujols is not proud of his cutoff play in the series. Please don’t try to put somebodies comments out of perspective.
Mr. Landlord
I believe that my snark obscured my point. Over his career, Pujols has been a similarly plus defender at first base to Kotchman, with a 6.9 UZR/150 to Kotchman’s 7.6. Of course that cutoff play was poor, and of course he is not proud, but to imply that he’s a bumbling idiot on the basis of that play, while ignoring the outstanding career, is a bit misleading.
I would be okay (not happy, but okay) to see Kotchman back at the right price, but it’s not as if his fielding prowess, while quite impressive, is at all unique.
Thank You for your explanation Mr. Whelk
My comment was not intended to imply that Mr. Pujols is a bad defensive 1b. Just that the play of the 1b position during this world series has been something I don’t want the Rays to fall into.Thank you for correcting my statements.
All the defensive metrics point to him being above-average but not elite.
And no one was comparing him to Michael Young or even calling him bad.
The reason I put Mr. Kotchman
in the elite status is because he has the highest fielding percentage of any 1b in the history of major league baseball. He also holds the record for most innings played at 1b without an error. I know you like fangraphs UZR but I am reluctant to give full creditability to a site that has writters that have a negative viewpoint of Mr. Kotchman.
Fielding percentage is a pointless statistic...
and ignoring a site’s analysis because they are critical of a player your are fond of is foolish
by Ryan Gilliss on Oct 28, 2011 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
If you can't see that for the obvious troll that it is then you aren't fit to moderate these here boards
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 28, 2011 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
If you are going to flame posters
on here MR. Kazmir ,then spare us your B.S. about your contradictory statements like the one you fed Sandy the other day. Keep your comments to yourself and keep them baseball related.
You are a horse's ass that I hope to never interact with again
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 28, 2011 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I would suggest
that fielding percentage on its own is a pointless statistic but it does tell a part of the story. Does the player make the plays that he is supposed to make?
There are a slew of defensive metrics and trying to rely on one is probably not a good idea but a suite of statistics may help tell the story with some clarity.
I agree but there are stats like RZR that I would look at first over FDLG%.
It’s not a completely useless stat but possibly the last one that should be looked at.
we all have our starting points
I’ll be honest and suggest that I don’t really comment on fielding until I’ve seen the guy play a decent amount. And I’m not talking just range or making the play when its hit right at him. I like to look at the decision making process like throwing to the right base, forcing the lead runner instead of taking the easy out at first, and a slew of other things that don’t show up in any fielding metric.
I definitely agree with this in theory.
I just wonder how many times a decision comes up that 99% of MLB players don’t make in exactly the same way. Once a game? I doubt it. Maybe once or twice a week. And even a great defender can have a slump and do the wrong thing in a sample size as small as that.
There’s only a few things I think I can actually see with any confidence in a sample size much smaller than what the other systems need:
- Really bad hands.
- Really bad/good range.
- Really strong throwing arm.
Anything not on these extremes I fear gets lost.
for fun
watch the Rays play on one screen and at the same time have a team like the Cleveland Indians open on another screen.
Do this for the 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 seasons and so much of the “fielding” differences will become increasingly clear!
Trust me, the contrast is unreal.
A few years ago
I thought I knew defense. 2008-2011 Rays baseball in contrast to the other team I was watching taught me to respect it at a whole other level.
Who else uses a straight back camera?
I think Detroit does. I’ll pair all Rays games with someone who does next season, if my internet allows it.
You’re quite right that only having a large sample size on one team probably warps my perspective.
LOL
and there goes our season
OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 28, 2011 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Kotch's defense
So Kotch can save runs on defense by not making errors okay; however, that is not all that entails in a good defender. All the statistics you mentioned leave out other defensive attributes such as range.
Would be a waste of high really good defense at other positions.
Obviously could work but would require filling the hole at 2B, which would be much tougher than finding a mediocre 1B that would likely outperform the 2B replacement.
Joyce might be a better choice to move to 1B
by Ben Tumbling on Oct 28, 2011 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
People keep saying this but has he ever played the position?
It’s hard to just throw someone there. If he can play it then I’d be ok with that but there is no evidence to say that he can.
I believe that he hasn't played any significant time at first in the minors or majors...
I would believe that his above-average athleticism would translate well to the position.
by Ryan Gilliss on Oct 28, 2011 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree, he fits the mold of a guy who can handle the transition.
But there has to be a backup plan if he can’t.
So he only gets a few months to try and become at least league average defensively there?
Not saying it’s impossible but I think it’s more difficult than most believe.
If we do not trade for Alonso/Belt/Morrison then give him a 1B glove and let him play Spring and a few spot starts when Hellickson pitches to see how he does in game situations.
If he fails then move on and if he excels then we have a 1B for 2013+. We cannot go into 2012 with him as the best option at 1B, though. I think we agree on that.
If he could become league average over an offseason.
He could become a very strong defensive first basemen over the course of the 4 years of team control left. So even if he started as a slightly below average 1B defensively by the end of the year I believe he could figure it out to be at least league average. I belive Joyce can put in the work and make it work by looking at his progression in OF defense. Going forward that would clear a huge hole considering he is athletic enough to eventually be an above-average defensive 1B and might protect his body from the wear and tear of the outfield.
But to say, right now, that he is the starting 1B for 2012 with no backup plan would be a mistake.
Let him play in Spring and some in the regular season while a FB pitcher (Helly) is on the mound and see how he does. Then you know what to do for 2013+. He cannot be the best option having never played there.
There would obviously be a backup plan just like Kotchman was this year sitting in AAA.
It’s not ideal, but barring a trade for a MLB ready 1B over the winter it could be the best option for the Rays going forward. However if BJ is moved this offseason I wouldn’t want to do it because our starting OF would be rough.
Who would that backup plan be?
We, in all honesty, got lucky with Kotch. Not saying you’re wrong, sorry if it comes out that way, but want to know your ideas of who would be the backup plan.
I like them equally. Neither as a starting 1B option, though.
But, I was wrong about Kotch last year. I said he had no business even on our AAA squad. Whoops.
It depends who signs where and who falls to our bargain bin level on a MiLB contract.
If i had to make a decision now out of likely candidates I’d probably go with Branyon and Canzler.
That's exactly what I was thinking as a platoon.
Would love to get something better but I’d live with that as a platoon especially if we keep Upton.
It's not my ideal scenario, but could be one that our budget forces us down.
In terms of realistic scenarios I would prefer these options.
A. Be able to pull off a trade for a young, cost-controlled MLB ready 1B at fair value (Alonso, Morrison, Belt…).
B. Solid starting 1B through FA that falls into our lap at a reasonable price.
C. Joyce starting the season as our 1B. Only way this would really work however is keeping BJ and probably picking up a FA OFer (DeJesus type). I wouldn’t be a fan, however, if our OF ended up being Fuld/Jennings/Guyer or something similar.
All these options would have us look at the bargain bin for backup plans put in AAA (Branyon and Canzler being my preferred). If they performed well they could become potential bench bats for us come playoff time.
I am pretty much in agreement with that list.
I, honestly, would not mind an OF of Jennings, Upton, Fuld/Guyer with Joyce at 1B if he proves he can handle the position. I’d add Andruw Jones as a RH bat that can COF/DH/1B. We possibly maximize OF defense this way.
Still prefer option A.
I fully agree, just think with our finances the way they are others can force our hand to do things we don't really want to do.
I would be fine with a Jennings, Upton, Fuld/Guyer outfield. It sure would be entertaining to watch defensively and would be good enough offensively I believe.
I too would love an Andruw Jones type bat off the bench that can play defense. I think that might be our biggest upgrades over this past years team can be made. Especially when you get to the playoffs a quality bench would be nice to have and could come relatively cheaply. Sorry if this is a little off topic but upgrading Elliot and Rugg would be significant and wouldn’t break the bank.
Jones also has power and patience.
This past three years were his highest in BB% and the power has been better than his career average.
I like Jones as well, but
I noticed that this year his K% jumped ~5.5% and was ~7% greater than his career norm. It kinda frightens me that his bat may be slowing down.
And yes Option A is ideal.
Since this could be our best shot at a WS Champ with our current roster I feel A>B>C. However, we cant afford to not have a backup plan in case things don’t work out on the trade front.
what ever happened
To leslie anderson? Wasn’t he going to play 1st base? He’s cuban so you know he’s good.
by jacksontsmith on Oct 28, 2011 1:58 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
as to the post:
id love to get hinske if he becomes available, but id be shocked if the braves didn’t bring him back.
i think jc is really selling the FA market short. here are the guys listed as 1b:
First basemen
Russell Branyan (36)
Jorge Cantu (30)
Michael Cuddyer (33)
Prince Fielder (28)
Ross Gload (36)
Brad Hawpe (33) – $6MM mutual option with $1MM buyout will be declined
Eric Hinske (34) – $1.5MM club option with a $100K buyout
Casey Kotchman (29)
Mark Kotsay (36)
Derrek Lee (36)
Xavier Nady (33)
Lyle Overbay (35)
Carlos Pena (34)
Albert Pujols (32)
Juan Rivera (33)
Juan Rivera is a really intriguing option (lee and pena would be welcome as well). there are also some guys not listed as 1b that could make the transition. im looking at you kouzmanoff, aramis, willingham, swisher, and mags/jd drew.
I listed all of those except Cuddyer (can't afford) and Rivera.
Rivera is intriguing as a platoon partner only. Kouz cannot hit. Aramis is expensive. Willingham won’t happen. Swish would be nice but I’m sure the market for him, if his option is declined, would be solid.
I simply do not see a great market here. That’s just me.
how can Ryan Garko
not be on that list?
Yes, sort of joking here, but Garko may surface somewhere as a RHB who can play 1b.
Have no idea what happened to him in 2010.
Another MiLB invite? Durham possibly? Can’t see him playing in Korea again in 2012.
Garko and Murton are my two imports to look at in 2012.
How'd Garko do in Korea?
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
I'm not sure Woody
I don’t think he did all that well, but three are so many reasons for why a player may do poorly overseas.
I’ll be interested to see if he lands a spring training invite somewhere. He wouldn’t even be able to command a force out option in his deal so it would be a zero risk to a team.
His downfall is quite head scratching…a RHB who can hit lefties suddenly finds himself after 1 rough patch in Korea?
07/20/11
SOUTH KOREA – After struggling for the first few month of the season and being injured, the Samsung Lions have released former major leaguer Ryan Garko.
Garko hit .243 in 58 games with 28 RBI. Perhaps the most disappointing aspect of Garko’s season was the power numbers. He hit only 1 home run and 8 doubles.
what about Casey McGehee moving from 3B to 1B?
He’s a decent chance of being non-tendered by Milwaukee. Might be a decent low-cost, low-risk option.
by raysfaninminnesota on Oct 28, 2011 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Good call.
Although, the bat didn’t play much in Mil. But could be low risk if he comes cheap enough.
Have to wait on Pujols first.
I do believe in his bat though. Soto from the Reds is an interesting guy too.
Leftovers after Fielder/Pujols leave?
Where those two land will open up some more possibilities for 1st baseman via trade. Wouldn’t be surprised if the Nats sign Fielder that Adam LaRoche is dealt to the Rays in an Upton deal(with the Nats adding some salary relief..4 million?). A plus WAR player with better than average defense and under contract for one more year. Rays could look to add one of their catchers within that deal as well.
why on earth would you want Adam LaRoche?
I don’t disagree with your general thought pattern (i.e., that free agency opens doors), and I think you might see unlikely players become available (Mark Reynolds?).
But Adam LaRoche? I suppose if that Nationals released him outright, he might be worth a flyer at the major-league minimum. Outside of that, I don’t get it.
by AndrewTorrez on Oct 29, 2011 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
He fits the mold of what the Rays like in a first baseman
Good defensive 1st baseman who should hit .260-.270 with decent splits, 20+ HR’s with 90+ RBI’s. Strikes out a lot but will draw a walk as well. A deal for Upton cancels out their salaries(about 8 million) and if the Rays take back all his salaries(if the Nats sign Fielder and NEED to move him), they could ask for a Norris as part of the deal.
I would add Neimann/Davis to the deal(giving the Nats a solid starter they are looking for) and look to get a future closer type in Henry Rodriquez and maybe Lombardozzi too.
The point is to maximize the return the Rays could get by moving Upton and/or Shields and a Neimann/Davis this winter
It wouldn’t be an Upton for Laroche straight up, because Upton’s one year value would be much higher than a spare part for the Nats(especially if they can sign Fielder). Rays may have to spend 4 million dollars on a FA 1st baseman anyway. But the Rays could get a solid 1st baseman of need for 2012 (at what would be no payroll increase) but be able to add other pieces of need..like a Derrick Norris as their future catcher(2013). Extending the deal could get add other needs(set-up man for next year in Rodriquez or a potential SS in Lombardozzi as well).
I sure hope we aren't trying to cancel out salaries in a Upton trade.
Especially for a guy like LaRoche. Upton is worth far more than that
I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta
by sc_monsta1015 on Oct 29, 2011 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions
And I do understand you aren't saying Upton for LaRoche straight up.
But still, we aren’t going to want a guy who barely played last year and hit under .200 – and then pay him 8 million dollars. My point is we could trade Upton for solid future players while saving money. Like I’ve said before, a Shields trade makes more sense. We would fill in holes with good hitters and save money. If we trade Shields, we shouldn’t be in any hurry to trade Upton, especially with most of our needs filled.
I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta
by sc_monsta1015 on Oct 29, 2011 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with trading Upton for needs AND saving money
I have even suggested trading him for Ramos and getting a decent 1st base prospect in Marrero from the Nats. Would you trade Upton straight up for Ramos? or maybe ask for another prospect in addition? I would. I’m also thinking the Rays will decide to hold onto Shields..leaving Upton as the centerpiece of a deal to maximize the return of needs.
I just think the Nats and Rays are a good trading match-up. But if the Rays don’t want to commit to re-sign Kotchman for 2 years and 8 million(at least what someone else will give him), they will need a proven replacement at 1st base..someone who can play the position very well and who can add some power. LaRoche, despite his short and injured season, could fit the bill. And he would only be a one year commitment. Maybe the Nats chip in 2-3 million to move him. But that reduces the prospect the Rays could ask for as well.
I’m all for going after Alonso or looking to add a young diamond in the rough( Allen, Ike Davis, Belt) but even that could leave the Rays with an inexperienced 1st baseman next year, especially defensively. And I think that having a top defender at 1st may be the most important factor here for the FO.
I would look to get a Ramos for next season(fill that need) or a Norris for the future. If Laroche came back because the Nats wanted to move him and it filled out the deal, I would consider it. I would much rather expand the deal to add a Neimann/Davis(a starter the Nats are looking for) to even get an even better return by bringing back a Rodriquez/Lombardozzi/Marrero. I just think the Rays could improve themselves greatly, both short and/or long term by packaging Upton and a pitcher to the Nats(both needs for them making a push in 2012). It may allow them to keep Shields, which may be their plan anyway.
I don't believe it's realistic to expect to even get Ramos straight up for Upton.
After a breakout season with 5 years of cost control Catcher, I don’t believe Upton would come that close to even being in the ballpark of Ramos by himself.
Ramos would conservatively have at least $50MM Surplus value considering 5 years of team control with 2 at league minimum. Upton’s Surplus value is in the $10MM ballpark.
If the offer of Ramos for Upton came up I would do it as fast as possible, so I imagine it would take something fairly significant prospect wise to come along with Upton to land a young catcher that has already succeeded at the MLB level with 5 years left.
Extend Upton
I like the idea of being able to, IF it could be done for reasonable price at around 4yrs/38 million (including this year), and then trade Shields for a young 1B and catcher (ideally Alonso and Grandal).
I would like something worked out along those lines.
However, for it to make sense there needs to be a commitment of increased payroll in order to make him fit with our home grown talent getting more expensive over the next 2-3 years. Hopefully a new TV deal and the stadium issues will make a progressive payroll going forward that will make them be able to sustain a middle of the pack payroll.
I wonder about Mike Morse
What are the downsides of an Upton – Morse swap?
No way Nationals do that without a long-term commitment from Upton
and even then I’m not sure they want to touch it
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Oct 30, 2011 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Nats are going to go after Fielder hard
Signing him puts them all in for 2012 and keeps Morse in LF. But it does open up moving 1st baseman like LaRoche and Marrero but also puts a premium on adding a CF’er between Morse and Werth.
Which is why I think Upton is in play for them this winter. And why the Rays and Nats match-up on a number of possibilities. And, Upton playing in his backyard, could aid them in signing him long term at some point, IMO.
Good point.
Like I said, if a Shields trade doesn’t work out, an Upton trade seems more likely, and the Nats look REALLY good next year. If a Shields trade does work out, I can see the Nats going after Sizemore (see below), and they still look very good
I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta
by sc_monsta1015 on Oct 30, 2011 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Cleveland to release Sizemore (via MLBTR)
I could see the Nats trying to sign him, if a Upton trade can’t happen. If they are really trying to go all in next year, they will need some starters as well. Nieman, Shields, Davis or Cobb would all be desired assets.
Right.
If no Shields trade happens, Upton to the Nats makes sense.
I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta
by sc_monsta1015 on Oct 30, 2011 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Wonder what it would take to trade for Justin Smoak?
Don’t know how Seattle feels about him and Mike Carp got more playing time at 1st base last season. He is young and was rushed to the majors. Maybe getting him out of Safeco would help his numbers. Maybe start with a package of Neimann/Davis and a prospect?
Smoak had a really hot and cold season
He would go on streaks where he’d mash and then taper off. He definitely has potential.
My humble opinion
Trade Upton, have a Guyer/Jennings/Joyce OF with Fuld as the 4th. I’m fine with the catcher position, there are plenty of options especially at the cost. The rotation with Shields/Price/Moore/Hellickson/Niemann or Davis is going to be the best overall rotation in all of baseball, and you need to keep Niemann in case one of the other 4 go down with a injury then replace with Davis or Cobb, which the Rays all have under contract already. My perfect scenario is trading upton for two bullpen guys, and somehow getting Cuddyer for 2 yrs/14 mill, which I think he would do with his age, wanting a ring, and the need for a team like the Rays for him, cuz Minnesota never appreciated how good he was.
At his age, this will be his last chance to get a three+ year deal..
…and I think there is a good chance he will get at least 10 million per. That might put him outside the Rays wallets. I’m not sure his production is worth what he may end up getting and his numbers went down once he moved to Target field(which may not bold well playing at the Trop).
IF the Rays trade Upton, I would hope that they would get a better return than two bullpen guys.
I am much less comfortable than you are with the catching situation. I am not sold that Jaso, Chirinos or Lobaton will be a viable option defensively or at the plate. If Upton is traded a catcher would be MUCH more preferable a return than two bullpen arms. I think that the rotation is more likely to remain the same to begin the season as Cobb will be returning from injury and Moore likely to get sent to Durham for the first month or two. I am on board with the Cuddyer addition. He would make a HUGE impact in the lineup as well as fill the 1B hole. He also would provide flexibility in the OF if another 1B option became available.
by Moore Guerreri and Cheese on Oct 30, 2011 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Only because I would rather spend Upton money on a 1B
since I don’t think we are going to pick up the option on Farnsworth for over 3 mil and with his elbow, if we do pick up option then I am with the catcher scenario, but who? Reds aren’t going to take upton they are loaded in outfield with Stubbs and Bruce etc and Nationals are not letting Ramos go as young and cheap as he is when next year they have alot of promise to get into the playoffs. A catcher signing is going to be a FA acquisition. I love Upton, alot, but we can’t afford him and a good quality 1B. Either trade him for bullpen help to absolutely solidify that stout overall staff, or sign him to a 1 yr/5.5 contract and resign Kotchman. I don’t know of another 1B that Tampa can afford with Upton other than someone like Brad Hawpe (meaning who can actually hit consistently). Guys like Lee and Branyan and co. aren’t worth what they want to bring. Branyan is as liable to hit .280/25/90 as he is .230/9/50
Surely there has to be a power hitting catcher out there to make a position change. You also see catchers who have played 3B …so they are out there.
Josh Donaldson is a AAA catcher for the A’s who statistically has the power that we are missing at the 1B position and could make the switch.
If going with minor league catchers with no or limited ML experience sure there are plenty, then why not stick with Chirinos for a season to see what he can actually do then? the point is to bring in a solidified catcher who we know can hit.
Judging by the numbers of catchers around the league..
If you don’t “luck” into a good offensive catcher through the system, it might be best to punt the position offensively and just look to get solid defensive ones and hope for the best and pinch hit for them late if it matters.
The attrition rate through injuries and the limited prime career of the position it might be best to treat the position like the bullpen in regards to just using very short bargain basement style findings and using the savings in other needs who will see the everyday lineup. Since a starting catcher only will see action in about 2/3 of all games so the money can be better spent on other positions with our budget.
This may not well received and I don’t really expect it to be, but it might be an outside the box kind of view that may be viable to work within the financial constrants of this unique situation.
I’m all for the cheap catcher at all times for the points u just provided, why I am fine with Chirinos and Labaton and Jaso platooning for next year. Jaso can hit though. I just somehow want to sign BJ to a one year deal and get Cuddyer and then all is right with the world, that team right there should be a 95 win team easy.
The Rays need to upgrade the "black hole' that is the bottom of the order if they are going to improve next season.
Going with the mish mash at catcher and SS and playing Sam Fuld on those occasions put too much pressure on the top six to carry this team. Expecting to win games consistently by giving up 9 outs every game is counter-productive, IMO.
I posted a reply at the bottom of the thread.
I hope you excuse me for my failure.
Giving up 9 outs every game is too many.
However even Fuld playing he had a wRC+ of 99 vs righties which is acceptible given his defense and with our outfielders he shouldn’t be starting against lefties.
After the callup of Desmond Jennings the only times we had 3 black holes really were when we had to watch the 7-9 consist of Elliot Johnson, whomever was catching, and Brignac/SRod (vs. righties). With Zobrist stepping in as the every day 2B there really should be very few of those days in the future. So really our only black holes were SS and C.
With SS I believe next year will prove to be at league average with SRod taking a majority of the playing time with Brignac being mostly a defensive replacement. Hopefully Brignac improves to be at least servicable in that role though I have my doubts that he will. Beckham should be pushing on the door next year and by the midway point could force himself into the position of being the everyday shortstop, either by him continueing to improve in AAA or BrIgnac continueing to be a blackhole offensively. Either way I feel that will work itself out next year and be at worst a productive bottom of the order bat and solid defense.
Catcher will mostly be an automatic out with putting whoever wins the jobs in the best position to succeed, but not expect much. With the 2 of them getting around 300-350 PAs and riding the hot hand. This is where I took comparing the catcher situation to the bullpen.
I’m not saying they shouldn’t try to improve the roster, current and in the future, but should at least consider this approach with the catchers.
There is just no 1B's out there.
I was only looking at another position (catcher) simply because other than Carlos Pena out there there isn’t a whole lot except a bunch of old has beens, or keeping Kotchman.
If you can get a AAA guy out there who can hit 15-25 and play some DH and keep Shoppach, then you might have something.
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