The Rays Tank: Sadly, Baseball Is Over

by Erik Hahmann on Oct 31, 2011 8:00 AM EDT in The Rays Tank

A nor'easter has claimed the power at the Slowinski residence as a casualty. We can only hope Steve baked enough loaves of Pumpernickel to feed the wife and kitten. I'm kidding about that last part...sort of. With Steve out of commission for a few days I'll bringing you the Rays Tank for this Halloween. There hasn't been much Rays news lately, but enjoy nevertheless.

You might have heard that the St. Louis Cardinals won the World Series over the weekend. Eric Freeman, writing for Deadspin, does an excellent job of describing what an overwhelming factor luck can play in a team's playoff success, stating "...baseball's coronation process takes place over the course of a maximum of 19 games per team, a far smaller sample size than the 162 games played during the regular season. While the postseason features the best teams in the sport, the number of games played necessarily demands that single events have an extremely large effect on the outcomes of series." He'd add later "The playoffs don't determine which team deserves a championship more than the other seven participants. We can only learn which team wins 11 games. In such a small sample, there is no "deserve." As Rays fans, I think we can agree with that.
Mike Fast is always a must read at Baseball Prospectus. His piece last week on hot and cold zones for hitters was enlightening for those concerned with Sean Rodriguez. He had a real problem with pitches away from him in 2011. His TAv (BP's measure for total offensive value per out) on pitches up-and-away was .201, with .263 being league average. On pitches down-and-away his TAv drops to .168, with .211 being league average. By comparison, and an unfair one, Jose Bautista's down-and-away TAv was .308. Rodriguez didn't have a high number of plate appearances in each instance, so there's no use trying to make a definitive statement about him, but it's something to keep an eye on in 2012.
Today is option-day. The Rays have three players to make decisions on; James Shields ($7M), Kyle Farnsworth ($3.3) and Kelly Shoppach ($3.2M). The Shields option is a definite. I assume the team will pick up Farnsworth's, but thats dependent on how they feel about the health of his elbow. The general opinion is that the team won't pick up Shoppach's option, but may look to bring him back for a lesser price.
The many faces of Nolan Ryan: screen captured for your enjoyment.
A reminder of just how much better Joe Posnanski is than the rest of us.

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First bullet point

wont he World Series

As you can always expect come from behind victory is when you least expect it.

by Buc Wild on Oct 31, 2011 8:14 AM EDT reply actions

well, won't he?

I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.

by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions

by pudieron89 on Oct 31, 2011 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions

The Rays may pick up all 3

Farnsy is definitely trade-able at that price (in the event they don’t trust the elbow) and Shoppach reminds me of when the Rays picked up Aki’ $4 million option and traded him for Jesse Chavez who was traded for Soriano who turned into compensatory picks Mikie Mahtook and Brandon Martin.

Rays will keep strings alive when they can. Shoppach still hits lefties well and had a great year behind the dish. Some one will find it an attractive option IMO. It probably doesn’t make much sense for the Rays to keep him though.

including the post season Shopp hit lefties better this year than last year to the tune of .256/.355/.496.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Oct 31, 2011 8:22 AM EDT reply actions

I'm actually fine with picking up Shoppach's option, due to lack of better options

When I saw his defensive stats, I’m fine with the Rays keeping him. If they can add a better platoon option, this would be the way to upgrade the position. If they can add someone in trade, etc, Shoppach’s contract, and his play, would appear to be tradable.

by raysfaninminnesota on Oct 31, 2011 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions

I'd actually be curious to a Ryan Doumit/Kelly Shoppach pairing

they’d probably lead the majors in PB, but Doumit’s 24% CS rate can be passible at the right price and if he hits RHP according to his average (.277/.337/.455/.792 over last 3 yrs). Doumit’s CS rate puts him in the same percentage as Carlos Ruiz, Carlos Santana, and Brian McCann. Yes, they clearly are better in other categories. But if we were willing to put up with Jaso, Doumit offers more stability with the bat than Jaso.

by raysfaninminnesota on Oct 31, 2011 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions

i do not want doumit behind the plate at all

by rglass44 on Oct 31, 2011 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions

Seconded

by Erik Hahmann on Oct 31, 2011 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm not saying it's the best option, but if the Rays are not able to sign Hernandez, or trade for Iannetta or a young C...where do you go from there?

by raysfaninminnesota on Oct 31, 2011 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions

id rather target brad snyder.

or anyone who can field the position with no bat. doumit’s an oft-injured, bad defensive catcher who has enjoyed his offensive success in the NLC. I think he’ll get paid fairly well, and I do not want another year of futility behind the plate.

by rglass44 on Oct 31, 2011 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Chris Snyder, on the er...back of a back injury, would be presumably be cheap and amenable to a short-term contract to build value.

Maybe an incentive-laden contract with some sort of option for a 2nd year? Could be a good option.

'That is an absurd username.' - Steve Slowinski.

by Concretepiggy on Oct 31, 2011 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions

thats who i meant... good call

by rglass44 on Oct 31, 2011 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions

I fully expect to see Doumit signed but not to be a fulltime catcher

I see him being the ‘Mostly" full time DH. A switch hitter who came back healthy last year and could put up numbers he had in ’08. Though I wouldn’t want him playing much catcher(because of his poor defense), he could play there on occasion and act as a third stringer(giving Maddon a lot of flexibility late in games) and allowing the Rays to carry two other catchers if they want. Plus, being able to focus on just hitting, may also work in his favor and keep him healthy. I see him as a a better hitting Navarro with much more power and being a more productive hitter in scoring situations

The Rays could add another DH/1st base/OF’er type to supplement Doumit on those days he doesn’t DH. Sign him for 1 year at 4 million or two years at 7 million.

by budman3 on Oct 31, 2011 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd be fine with that.

by rglass44 on Oct 31, 2011 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions

id be less surprised if we worked out a deal (either extension or other 1-year deal) w/ shopp rather than the option.

$2.9 mill is a tidy sum for 2nd catcher.

by rglass44 on Oct 31, 2011 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions

this

I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta

by sc_monsta1015 on Oct 31, 2011 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Grady Sizemore, a DH candidate?

What are the thoughts on Sizemore as a part-time DH, part-time OF option? Rays can offer him time at DH to make it easier on his knee (especially at home when on turf) to keep him fresh. It would also give the Rays positional flexibility from the DH spot. 1 year, 5 mil with another 2-3 in potential incentives for games played?

by raysfaninminnesota on Oct 31, 2011 9:52 AM EDT reply actions

seems like a waste of a good glove

by rglass44 on Oct 31, 2011 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions

h/t Reej on this

Who would you rather give money to? Sizemore for the name or McLouth for the production?

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Oct 31, 2011 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions

img fail

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/2197_3190_OF_cseason_full_8_20110928.png

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Oct 31, 2011 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions

and for funsies

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Oct 31, 2011 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions

Is that batting average?

A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum

by BWoodrum on Oct 31, 2011 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions

Shame on him

by benderbrodriguez on Oct 31, 2011 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions

terrible

by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions

by pudieron89 on Oct 31, 2011 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Can't say I'm surprised on you relying on reej for anything of substance, old habits die hard, eh?

#FreeSandy #FreeDaveH #FreeHatsOff #SuckFternfan

by P Brady on Oct 31, 2011 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Colleagues chat, we don't steal off each other

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Oct 31, 2011 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions

I see one with a longer track record of production there.

I’d rather have Sizemore.

by Whelk on Oct 31, 2011 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions

and you talk to the average fan, and they'd take Sizemore 6 days a week over BJ

Funny how numbers play out

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Oct 31, 2011 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd argue

I don’t buy for a minute that there are a large number of fans that would take Grady Sizemore over BJ Upton.

There may be a small number of people who would take anyone over BJ because they don’t like something he has done or perceive him a certain way.

The average baseball fan would look at you with three heads if said that Grady Sizemore should be in Tampa Bay ahead of Upton at this point in their careers.

To suggest otherwise is handing way to much credit and power to a small amount of people who like to shout down others.

by MrNegative1 on Oct 31, 2011 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions

I've answered 20 tweets/emails related to Sizemore & the Rays today

I don’t want any part of him unless he signs a 1 yr deal for 4m

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Oct 31, 2011 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Sizemore as an addition

AFTER HE COMPLETES HIS REHAB AND DOES HIS WORKOUT he would be a fine gamble. Especially if he is willing to be creative when signing the deal (think lesser version of Adrian Beltre’s contract w/Boston).

The assumption is that the Rays ARE going to trade BJ and Sizemore on a 1-year deal could help after BJ is gone. I don’t think too many fans are saying trade BJ because Sizemore could replace him for cheaper? (if they are I scoff at them!).

My thoughts on Sizemore:

He had a “minor” knee surgery to alleviate pain in his knee from a bruise suffered on that weird slide against the Rays. The surgery may be an effort to relieve the discomfort but could also be a last ditch effort to avoid a microfracture surgery on his knee (not the same one as the last micro). The Indians may be aware that the odds of an additional surgery are higher than they’d like to gamble on so they let him go.

If the pain in the knee is alleviated and we’ll know soon enough as it is a 4-6 week rehab. After he rehabs he’ll go to Arizona or wherever and workout like a beast. He’ll have a public workout for GMs and scouts and his physical abilities alone will impress enough of them to garner a Adrian Beltre Red Sox type deal. This workout would probably be in early January.

I will be very interested in how this plays out and as I was tweeting yesterday wonder how the possible availability will affect the BJ Upton trade market (as far as timing). Buster Olney already listed Washington as possible destination for Sizemore. If I were a GM and didn’t want to give up talent to acquire BJ, I’d wait out to see if Sizemore can do the workout before dealing for BJ.

by MrNegative1 on Oct 31, 2011 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions

there's no comparison between the two players.

sizemore is younger, been better, and he’s coming off injury. one is a buy-low due to injury and the other is a 4th of. mclouth has 2 seasons through his age 29 season of greater than 3 wins (3.2 and 3.9), and he’s amassed 8.5 wins in 731 career games. sizemore once put up 8.4 wins IN A SEASON. he’s also had 3 other 5 win seasons. in his career (892 games) he’s almost quadrupled mclouths war total with 30.5 war.

with mclouth your upside is a decent 4th of who cant really play center and doesnt hit for enough pop to start in a corner. with sizemore, youre looking at a guy thats got huge injury questions but has never produced less than 5 wins in a full season. HUGE DIFFERENCE.

by rglass44 on Oct 31, 2011 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions

you think Nats will gamble

of course, just like my last comment, I do mean gamble after a workout has been performed to show he is healthy.

by MrNegative1 on Oct 31, 2011 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions

id love it if they did. my hometown team!

by rglass44 on Oct 31, 2011 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions

I think people who don't pay attention to Cleveland (many Rays fans)

Remember him as the budding young superstar on the cover of SI a few years back. If someone on a far away team goes through hard times, people mostly just don’t notice, I think.

by Whelk on Oct 31, 2011 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions

well one's a very good defender as well.

also league differences.

by rglass44 on Oct 31, 2011 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions

also, unsurprisingly scutaro's back with the sawx for 2012.

good news is they wont be going after reyes, but thats one less FA ss available.

by rglass44 on Oct 31, 2011 10:14 AM EDT reply actions

im shocked aramis declined his option. i expected the cubs to do it for him.

im guessing he’ll be out of our price range as our 2012 1b now.

by rglass44 on Oct 31, 2011 10:15 AM EDT reply actions

and he's only a Type B too -- ouch

He and his agent must be confident in the open market

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Oct 31, 2011 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions

i mean if he were type a, id be shocked if he had done it.

by rglass44 on Oct 31, 2011 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions

Either way -- that $16M I don't see a team paying him in 2012

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Oct 31, 2011 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions

yeah. im guessing he figured he could get a 3/24 or something.

hes the only 3b fa a team in contention would start (outside of blake if hes healthy), he could nab a nifty 3 year deal. even something like 2/20 isnt out of the picture. thats more guaranteed money than the $16 he turned down.

beltre got 5/80 when he was 2 years younger (and better), so i wouldnt be shocked to see some team think he’s worth up to $10 annually for a few years.

by rglass44 on Oct 31, 2011 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions