The Updated Leaderboard Of Pain: All-Time Rays DHs

by BWoodrum on Oct 31, 2011 11:49 AM EDT in Features & Analysis

Hey everyone! I'm told Steve is buried in six tons of snow, so until he digs or eats his way free, we'll be mixing things up around here. As such, I figured I could share a little Tableau doc with you guys.

The Tampa Bay Rays got stung early this year when Manny Ramirez Manny Ramirez'd the club, retiring like 15 minutes into the season. So, the team rolled with the juiced punches and slid outfielder Johnny Damon into the designated hitter (DH) role. Damon went ahead and hit 16 homers with a .328 wOBA and 109 wRC+ -- and, frankly, that ranks among the best DH offerings the Rays have seen in a long time.

According to Damon's yearly wins above replacement level (WAR), 2011 was his 4th worst season -- partly because he did not do a whole lot of fielding. Still, Damon's year at the plate nonetheless pleased me, albeit mildly -- but especially so in light of our previous DH woes and the other DH problems around the league (see: Adam Dunn and his -2.9 WAR).

If we break the Rays' historical DHs into WAR per plate appearances (PA), we can see Damon ranks among the best:

Thoughts:

First, and most obviously, Joe Dillon for DH!
In Jose Conseco's 766 PAs, he clobbered a .386 wOBA. That little sliver of amazing still ranks tops for the Rays. Of course, Conseco was more horse hormone than healthy in his time with the Rays, so it's hard to crown him for anything.
In just one season, Damon matched Jonny Gomes at 1.5 WAR. I believe Gomes is a free agent this year, and I imagine some Rays fans want a little reunion, but there's a good chance he's just an expensive Brandon Guyer, sans fielding ability.
Cliff Floyd had an admirable WAR rate in his time with Tampa Bay, but geez, only 284 PAs? That's hardly half a season.
Greg Vaughn looks impressive up there, but consider this: His WAR rate is almost identical to Johnny Damon's. That makes me think Damon could quite easily be a solid option for 2012, assuming Jason Giambi or Jim Thome or Russ Canzler are off the table (and I believe Giambi is off the table).
Note that the thickness of the bar graphs indicate the amount of PAs they received.

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Comments

5th best? Not too shabby.

I also enjoyed PtB being 4th worst. Good times.

lastly,

Damon when ahead and hit

As you can always expect come from behind victory is when you least expect it.

by Buc Wild on Oct 31, 2011 12:16 PM EDT reply actions

Ah! Thanks. I will amend that now.

And on PtB: What a tragedy! Imagine if he had gone gangbusters with the Rays. We may have never signed Manny and Damon. Maybe we’d be talking about giving him another extension right now? Who knows what could have happened?

Well, we know the Rays certainly gave him plenty of time to learn the DH spot; it just didn’t work out. :(

A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum

by BWoodrum on Oct 31, 2011 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions

nice work

I expect Damon will be back; the fit is too good. No other team is likely to settle for such relatively meager production from their DH, but to the Rays, Damon mitigates the downside risk of other players that are likely in his financial class (e.g., guys like Russ Branyan).

Plus, if BJ is traded, I think Damon’s ability to actually play LF — aided by Maddon’s defensive alignment that mitigates his awful arm — ensures that Damon can earn significant PT even if the Rays bring in both a 1B and another DH.

by AndrewTorrez on Oct 31, 2011 1:18 PM EDT reply actions

I really hope the plan isn't for Damon to see significant playing time in LF.

I’d much rather see a Guyer/Fuld platoon and would be cheaper. If he’s back cheaper as a DH that’s fine if they feel it’s the best option.

by jtmorgan on Oct 31, 2011 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I hope we would choose Guyer over Damon in LF

I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta

by sc_monsta1015 on Oct 31, 2011 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions

I feel the same now, which is funny, because like two weeks ago I had seen enough of Damon.

A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum

by BWoodrum on Oct 31, 2011 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Damon can't play LF.

He may be a legit 20 grade out there.

by mr. maniac on Oct 31, 2011 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions

on arm grade, sure

I don’t know anyone who grades his range that low

by AndrewTorrez on Nov 1, 2011 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Personally, I would put Joyce there

And stick Guyer in RF but I also don’t want to see Upton traded and if he is, that changes things.

Joyce, who looked pretty damn good against not just lefties, but good ones should finally get a full time job.

Under construction

by joeybw on Oct 31, 2011 1:35 PM EDT reply actions

i meant he looked good in the playoffs

still wasn’t great in the regular season but not many chances

Under construction

by joeybw on Oct 31, 2011 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions

I feel like that potentially could be the best option if the Rays use the DH as days off for people.

With Joyce being DH about 50% with the other half going to giving people days off, and Joyce in RF the other 50%. Outfield of Jennings, Upton, Guyer/Fuld would be pretty nice defensively and Jennings, Upton, Joyce when infielders need days off with Guyer/Fuld spelling Jennings and Upton in the field when they DH. Would potentially help keep everybody fresh through the end of the season and keep some wear and tear from the outfielders due to the turf.

by jtmorgan on Oct 31, 2011 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Is a Joyce extension possible before he gets too expensive?

I think he will be very good for a while

I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta

by sc_monsta1015 on Oct 31, 2011 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions

I actually think that moving Joyce now could be a good move.

by budman3 on Oct 31, 2011 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Trading Joyce without a significant overpay would be a huge mistake.

With 4 years of control and still making minimum next year would take a huge overpay to make it worth it from the Ray’s side. Next year’s offense would be scary without him, and it doesn’t even create money that the Rays could spend more wisely.

by jtmorgan on Oct 31, 2011 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions

I would be concerned with Joyce's inability to hit lefties consistently limiting his development as a full time player

I think the Rays could get good value for him now because of his contract. The A’s will lose their entire OF this winter(Willingham, Crisp and Dejesus) and Joyce seems like a Billy Beane guy. I would trade and a prospect like Archer to them for Daric Barton and Cliff Pennington.
Barton is a great alternative to re-signing Kotchman for 6-8 million over two years. He is younger and under control for 3 more season(will probably make 1 million in arbitration next season). He has similar power now but could develop more but he has shown to be a more consistent hitter and is an OBP machine as well as just as good if not better defender than Kotchman. A’s have Allen and Chris Davis waiting to take over at 1st base.

Pennington is a very good offensive switch hitting SS who is under control for 4 years making minimum salary now. He is an excellent situational hitter and would anchor the bottom of the order for the Rays. Though only an average defensive SS, the Rays could back him up with Brignac/Rodriquez. It would also give Lee more time to develop in the minors. A’s have Grant Green, their top prospect, almost ready to become their SS.

by budman3 on Oct 31, 2011 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions

And BTW, I would consider signing Jason Kubel to replace Joyce as the lefthanded RF'er/LF'er as well

Could be able to sign him for 2 years and 12-14 million dollars, is only 29 and won’t cost a draft pick. Similar numbers to Joyce but more of a full time player. Trading Upton would free up money(and moving Jennings to center) to sign him without increasing payroll for next season.

by budman3 on Oct 31, 2011 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions

These two posts are absolutely terrible

by ShawnTSA on Oct 31, 2011 11:34 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Than you must love Joyce moving forward and don't think he is replaceable

Although I remember the three months, he took off in the middle of the season

by budman3 on Oct 31, 2011 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Joyce could be replaceable but I think you're way undervalueing him.

Joyces stats by month:

April: .321/.384/.500 wRC+ 150
May: .414/.470/.759 wRC+ 233
June: .173/.235/.293 wRC+ 35
July: .184/.232/.421 wRC+ 87
August: .282/.364/.423 wRC+ 118
September: .265/.370/.426 wRC+ 131

Season: .277/.347/.478 wRC+ 129

So for the season he had 1 really bad month (surrounding a shoulder injury), 1 below average month, 3 above average months, and 1 MoM kinda month. Everybody is going to slump from time to time.

While his struggles against lefties are legitimate, he has shown improvement and if he can lower his strikeout rate against lefties most of that should fix itself, and if he does that he becomes a very valuable all around player.

by jtmorgan on Nov 1, 2011 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions